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Seasonal Precipitation Prediction using the Global model (전지구 모델 GME를 이용한 계절 강수 예측)

  • Kim, In-Won;Oh, Jai-Ho;Hong, Mi-Jin;Huh, Mo-Rang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.351-351
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    • 2011
  • 최근 지구온난화와 더불어 이상기후가 대두됨에 따라 기상 예측이 더욱더 중요시되고 있다. 또한 이전부터 가뭄 및 홍수와 같은 기상현상으로 인한 피해 사례가 빈번하였으며, 이로 인하여 물 관리의 어려움을 겪고 있다. 한 예로 이상기후가 유난히 잦았던 2010년 여름철 경우 평년보다 발달한 북태평양고기압의 영향으로 여름철 92일 가운데 81일의 전국 평균기온이 평년보다 높게 나타났다. 또한 강우 일수가 평년에 비해 7.4일 많은 44.2일을 기록하였으며, 국지성 집중호우 사례가 빈번하였다. 또한 8월 9일 발생한 태풍 `뎬무'를 포함해서 한 달 동안 3개의 태풍이 한반도에 영향을 끼치는 이례적인 사례가 발생하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 이러한 기상재해에 따른 물 관리를 장기적으로 대비하고자 고해상도 전지구 모델 GME를 이용하여 2010년 여름철 강수 예측을 실시하였다. 강수 예측에 사용된 전지구 모델 GME는 기존의 카테시안 격자체계를 가진 모델과 달리 전구를 삼각형으로 구성된 20면체로 격자화 한 Icosahedral-hexagonal grid 격자체계로 구성되어 있어, 해상도 증가에 용이할 뿐만 아니라, HPC(High Performance Computing)환경에서 효율성이 높은 장점을 가지고 있다. 본 계절 예측을 수행함에 있어 발생하는 잡음을 최소화하고자, Time-lag 기법을 이용하여 5개의 앙상블 멤버로 구성되어있으며, 이를 비교 분석하기위해 Climatology를 이용하여 총 10개의 앙상블 멤버로 규준실험을 수행하였다. 선행 연구에 따르면 1개월 이상의 장기 적분의 경우 초기조건보다 외부 강제력이 더 중요한 역할을 한다고 연구된 바 있다. (Yang et al., 1998) 특히 계절 변동성의 경우 대기-해양간의 상호작용에 의해 지배되며, 이를 고려하여 본 연구는 해수면 온도를 경계 자료로 사용하여 계절 예측을 수행하였다. 앞서 말한 실험 계획을 바탕으로 하여 나온 결과를 통해 동아시아지역 및 한반도 도별 강수 및 온도 변수에 대해 순별 및 월별 카테고리맵 분석을 실시하여 한눈에 보기 쉽게 나타냈다. 또한 주요 도시별 강수량 및 온도의 시계열 분석을 실시하여 시간이 지남에 따라 나타나는 변동성을 확인하였다. 계절 예측 결과에서 온도의 경우 평년보다 높게 나타났으며, 이는 실제 온도 예측과도 유사한 패턴을 가졌다, 강수의 경우 7월부터 8월 중순까지 평년보다 다소 적게 모의되었으며, 8월 하순경 회복하는 것으로 예측하였다. 따라서 본 계절 강수 예측은 다소 역학 모델이 가지는 한계를 가지고 있으나, 실제와 비교하여 어느 정도의 경향성이나 패턴에 있어 유사성을 보임을 확인하였으며, 이를 장기적 차원의 물관리를 함에 있어 참고 및 활용 가능할 것으로 예상한다.

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The Effects of Estimation Activities on Understanding Concepts, Predicting and Calculating Answers in Problem Solving Procedure: Cases of Speed and Density (어림 활동이 문제 해결 과정에서 개념 이해, 해답 예측, 계산에 미치는 영향 : 속력과 밀도의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Suh, Jung-Ah;Jo, Kwang-Hee;Song, Jin-Woong;Pak, Sung-Jae
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.814-824
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    • 2004
  • This article presents the effects of estimation activities related to speed and density on students' concept-understanding, answer-prediction, and answer-calculation in problem solving procedure with quantitative and qualitative methods. Participants were one hundred and ninety two seventh graders from one coeducational school in Seoul. Half of them participated in the estimation activities and the other half did in the measurement activities. Discussions of three students during estimation activities on density and their post-interviews were tape-recorded. Pre- and post-assessment scores were analyzed for the whole classes, and students' discussions and interviews served this research as evidences for the case analysis. Results of scores indicated that students in the estimation activities were significantly better than those in the measurement activities for predicting answers, but not for understanding concepts. Analysis of the cases revealed that estimation activity helped them to understand the relations of mass, volume and density, empirically, which enhanced their prediction ability. Furthermore, the ability could help a student with low calculation ability to comprehend the calculation problems. Thus, it is concluded that estimation activities could influence students' empirical learning on quantitative concepts, which enhanced their prediction ability.

(A) Case Study on the Financial Solvency of Local Public Enterprises - Focused on Evaluation of Debt management of The GwangJu Metropolitan City Corporation - (지방공기업 재무건전성 사례분석 - 광주광역시도시공사 개발사업 채무관리 평가를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Gwang-Sup
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.75-97
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    • 2015
  • Recently public institutions' debt is growing therefore it became an important issue to the level that the government concerns about the possibility of financial burden to reduce the debt. Especially debt of public enterprises in metropolitan areas was in a serious state where debt in late 2013 was 43.2 trillion, which takes approx. 58.4% of 73.9 trillion of debt of all local public enterprises. Sound financial state of local public enterprises is important to public enterprises in metropolitan areas and it may affect seriously financial stability of local governments when public enterprises have financial problems. However, land supply business to form local industrial complexes or local demand for development of public rental housing business always exist; and vitalizing local economy and creating jobs through these businesses are very necessary to develop the areas. However, for local economic development, industirial land business and public rental housing business are needed. In this study, Gwangju Metropolitan City Corporation Ltd is used as a case study to evaluate the local public financial soundness via debt management assessment i.e.(using) the feasibility analysis in the urban development and housing development. As an improvement measure following the result of analysis, for the enhancement of financial soundness of urban innovation corporation, the government and local government shall evaluate and differentiate market demand, price competitiveness, and infrastructure of new town land development project to improve accuracy of project feasibility analysis. Another important insight is that there should be local government-centered management of liabilities of the local government and local public enterprises with the integrated liability management system to reduce the liability of the corporation and solve the issue of debts for local government. This study is significant in that it has analyzed cases from the theoretical aspect to secure financial soundness of national and local public enterprises.

Therapeutic Singing-Based Music Therapy for Patients With Dysphagia: Case Studies (연하장애환자의 후두기능 및 연하관련 삶의 질 향상을 위한 치료적 노래부르기 중심 음악중재사례)

  • Yeo, Myung Sun;Kim, Soo Ji
    • 재활복지
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.169-194
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    • 2018
  • The aim of this study is to examine changes in swallowing function and quality of life with therapeutic singing-based music therapy for patients with dysphagia. The music therapy program was based on the previous study (Kim, 2010), and designed to improve breathing, phonation, and swallowing functions focusing on laryngeal elevation. Three patients with dysphagia participated in this study and each participant received a total of 11 or 12 individual music therapy sessions and each session was conducted for 30 minutes. In this study, three kinds of measurements were used. First, the measures of maximum phonation time (MPT), fundamental frequency, average intensity, jitter, shimmer, noise to harmonics ratio (NHR) by Praat test, second, laryngeal-diadochokinesis (L-DDK) to investigate laryngeal elevation, and last, the Swallowing-Quality of Life (SWAL-QOL) was measured. These cases have shown improved breathing, phonation, swallowing function, and the scores of SWAL-QOL in all of the patients. It suggests that this music therapy intervention was effective on laryngeal elevation, and the music intervention with therapeutic singing can be effectively implemented in further research for patients with dysphagia.

A Construction Case of BRM 'Danwigwaje' in Basic Local Governments : Focussing on Gangbuk District of Seoul Special City (기초지방자치단체 기능분류체계(BRM)의 단위과제 구축 사례 서울특별시 강북구 사례를 중심으로)

  • Moon, Chan-il
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.49
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    • pp.247-275
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    • 2016
  • The classification scheme of records indicates a table that intends to express organic relations between records by organizing records and enabling internal order. Although the principles of organic classification have remained in traditional records management environment, they have been changed to "function and business" in the modern times. Therefore, Korea introduced a business reference model (BRM) based on function and business from 2008 and subsequently implemented its operation. However, it has been pointed out that the roles of the classification scheme of records have not been played because the analysis of "Danwigwaje," which belongs to the lowest level of business reference models, is poor. According to this indication, the Gangbuk District of Seoul Special City established a functional classification scheme by executing a business process analysis of "Danwigwaje." First, the record manager carried out analyses on the principles of "Danwigwaje," small function, and "Danwigwaje." Then, the functional classification scheme of "Danwigwaje" was modified by looking into the opinion inquiry process of the treatment department and performing a test operation. Through the case of the Gangbuk District in Seoul Special City, analytical procedures and methods of "Danwigwaje," as well as implications according to the establishment of a functional classification scheme of basic local governments, were arranged in a written format.

Documenting Contemporary 'Counter-memories': Focused on the Yongsan Tragedy (동시대 '대항기억'의 기록화 용산참사 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Kyong Rae;Lee, Kwang-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.53
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    • pp.45-77
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    • 2017
  • This study intends to rehabilitate the memories of the social other which have been gradually forgotten in the social events overloaded with the undemocratic violence in South Korea today. This study explores a case of Yongsan Tragedy in 2009 among the most tragic events. It notes the autonomous ways in which activist artists would like to memorize the socio-historical events anew despite the emptiness of public records. In other words, this study considers the Yongsan case to be significant that a group of the public, artists, grassroots activists, religion men got together in solidarity so as to create the contested narratives countering dominant memories and thus to signify the records written by the civil society. Among others, activist artists had documented the unofficial counter-memories of socially alienated peoples in terms of planning a series of artistic events such as opening some gallery exhibitions and performance events, issuing a volume of work books, comics and photographies, online broadcasting, and directing some documentaries. Especially, this paper tends to note the documentation of on-site activist artists to record the counter-memories against social oblivion. By doing so, it finally suggests how we could document the Yongsan Tragedy both to search out the archival implications of today's art activism and to insert those artistic records into the commonly shared counter-memories in a more inclusive way.

A Study on the Aesthetic Emotion and Creativity of 'Objet Animation' -Focused on the analysis of 'Objet' type of cultural arts education outcomes- ('오브제(Object) 애니메이션'의 미학적 정서와 창의성에 관한 연구 -문화예술교육 결과물의 '오브제(Object)' 유형 분석을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Hyun-Young;Kim, Jae-Woong
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.50
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    • pp.43-73
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    • 2018
  • This is a study on 'Objet' in animation culture art education. Research on the use of Objet in modern art is actively under way. From Cubism to Dadaism, Surrealism, Futurism and Pop art, it is no exaggeration to say that the Objet is stepping with modern art. In addition, Objet has a remarkable value in the field of visual arts expressing 'motion' such as kinetic art, video art, media art, and animation. However, there are not many cases of classifying and studying the types of Objets used in artworks. Therefore, this researcher has been influenced by the surrealism discourse and prepared six types of Objets type analysis framework. And the research focused on 'the aesthetic emotion and educational aspect of creativity improvement' of Objet animation was conducted. The type analysis framework is named as a drawing Objet, Objet of existence, a morphine Objet, epidermis Objet, assigned Objet and assemblage Objet and this type is presented and analyzed with case image. The data used in this study was focused on the outcome of Objet animation that were trained for non-experts in culture and arts education. This aesthetic emotion refers to Freud's desire for life (Eros) as Attraction, and desire for death (Thanatos) as Uncanny (fearful unfamiliarity) and explains the conflicting concept with the Animism, the indigenous religion. Next, educational aspects of Objet animation creativity improvement in relation to the term 'functional fixedness' was discussed as described by Gestalt psychologist Karl Duncker (1903-1940). Overcoming the functional fixedness is a phenomenon that is fixed only to the functional aspects of things and can't be changed. In this study, the educational aspect of creativity improvement was demonstrated as a case of overcoming the functional fixedness through 'Objet Animation' culture and art education. Ultimately, this study is to prove the aesthetic emotion and creativity of the Objet animation by analyzing Objet types. Furthermore, it is meaningful to suggest direction when using 'Objet Animation' in culture and arts education.

The Relics of Wae Lineage and the Keyhole-Shaped Mounds in the Honam Area (호남지역(湖南地域)의 왜계자료(倭系資料)와 전방후원형고분(前方後圓形古墳))

  • Tsuchida, Junko
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.170-203
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    • 2018
  • From the period of Japanese colonialism up to the present, the researchers of archaeology and ancient history in Korea and Japan have paid much attention to the Honam area. Recently the ruins and relics of Wae lineage are often discovered at archaeological excavation sites in this region. In particular, at least 17 keyhole-shaped mounds were confirmed. The fact that three mounds were built on one site was newly revealed. Haniwa, a representative earthenware object of the Kofun period in Japan, was discovered as well. Therefore, the study of a historical meaning of archaeological materials about Wae lineage in the Honam area thus far must be reexamined. The ruins and relics of Wae lineage in the Honam area have been studied by selecting only specific cases. I identified all the ruins and relics of Wae lineage in the Honam area and analyzed the process of their change in this paper. I reviewed the relationship between Wae and Mahan, and the purpose of their negotiation based on archaeological characteristics, changing processes, and historical records on a quarterly basis. The ruins and relics of Wae lineage have increased and widely spread since the early period of the 5th century in the Honam area. This tendency continued until the late period of the 6th century. Weapons of Wae lineage were introduced and tombs in the style of Wae were built from the late 4th century to the early period of the 5th century (TG232~TK216 period). Sueki was introduced from the middle to late period of the 5th century (TK208~TK23 period). Keyhole-shaped mounds and tombs in the style of Wae were built from the late period of the 5th century to the early period of the 6th century (TK47~MT15 period). Japanese weapons were introduced from the middle to late period of the 6th century (TK10~TK209 period). In other words, the archaeological appearance is different in each quarterly period. There was an intensive diplomatic relationship between Baekje and Wae in the TG232~TK216 period. The military might be included in a mission of Wae. The materials of Wae lineage of this period are likely to be related to this. Sueki spread to the inland part of the Honam area in the TK208~TK23 period. This Sueki tends to be excavated on advantageous sites for the accumulation and distribution of supplies. The main characters of the keyhole-shaped mounds are presumed to be a group of traders which were under the control of a certain influence in the north of Kyushu. The keyhole-shaped mounds were abruptly built at some distance from mounds of the leaders in the Honam area. Additionally, there was no special influence base to which the characters of the keyhole-shaped mounds belonged in the surroundings. However, it might have been impossible for the group of traders to build the keyhole-shaped mounds without the support from the residents at all because there was a big difference in the building technology of the keyhole-shaped mounds between Japan and the Honam area. The time of building some keyhole-shaped mounds is the same or almost the same with that of the mounds built for the regional leaders. This proves a close relationship with the residents as well. What do the archaeological materials of Wae lineage which have been used and buried mean over 200 years in the Honam area? Geumgwan Gaya, which had exported iron resources to Japan, perished in the early period of the 5th century. Instead of Gaya, the Honam area might have played an important role to supply the necessary resources to Japan. We assume that the Japanese (Wae) actively worked to acquire various resources focusing on the underground resources in the Honam area.

Impact Investment into Social Enterprises and Applicability to Korea (사회적기업의 임팩트투자와 한국 적용가능성 연구)

  • Chang, Sug-In;Jin, Jae-Keun;Choi, Ho-Gyu;Jeong, Kang-One
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.163-179
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    • 2020
  • Recently, impact investment has attracted attention all over the world. This is intended to effectively solve problems by combining private capital and various financial techniques with social and environmental needs, as it is recognized that it is difficult to solve social and environmental problems. Impact investment means a mixture of financial, social, and environmental aspects. This refers to an investment focused on such a blended value, through which it simultaneously achieves financial and social values such as return on investment. The purpose of this study is to study whether impact investment, which has become a new issue, is actually applicable in Korea. This study first considers the concept and method of impact investment, and a prior study on social enterprises and impact investment that pursue social values. In particular, after analyzing in detail the social performance-related bonds (SIB) and operational cases, we intend to explore the possible applicability of impact investment to Korea. The results and implications of this study are, first, changes in the government's attitude toward impact finance. The government should entrust innovative public works to market-proven service providers to enhance the professionalism and efficiency of public service projects. Second, the legal system must innovate. Impact investment should provide an institutional foundation to pursue social problem solving simultaneously, not maximizing financial performance. Third, when investing in public works in the private sector, impact investment must clearly demand social performance and clarify the evaluation accordingly. The project execution process should create an impact environment that is more free and active.

The Direction to the Entrepreneurship Education Center : Insight from the Kauffman Campus Initiative (창업교육센터의 향후 방향에 관한 연구 : 카우프만 캠퍼스 사업의 시사점을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jong In;Kim, Ki Young;Song, Choong Han
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2013
  • Entrepreneurship is the act of being an entrepreneur or one who undertakes innovations or introducing new things, finance and business in an effort to transform innovations into economic benefits. This result in new organizations or may be part of revitalizing mature organizations in response to a perceived opportunity. The most obvious form of entrepreneurship is that of starting new businesses, or startup company. However, in recent years, the term has been extended to include social and political forms of entrepreneurial activity. Interest in the entrepreneurship education has increased significantly in now. The 61 universities made the entrepreneurship education center in the four year university and college through the government LINC program. We need the questions about the what, who and why for entrepreneurship education. Kauffman Campus Initiative(KCI) guide us to the direction of the entrepreneurship center for the future. The considerations are as follows; what is center's managerial structure, what kind of program and activities is provided, what is factors to be interested, participated in the education, how can be sustainable entrepreneurial center?. This study provide four implicit for the centers. More broad definition of entrepreneurship for the education, diverse textbook and subjects for the entrepreneurship, coach development for the teaching, and the sustainable leadership.

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