• Title/Summary/Keyword: 로지스틱 회귀모형

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Stock-Index Invest Model Using News Big Data Opinion Mining (뉴스와 주가 : 빅데이터 감성분석을 통한 지능형 투자의사결정모형)

  • Kim, Yoo-Sin;Kim, Nam-Gyu;Jeong, Seung-Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2012
  • People easily believe that news and stock index are closely related. They think that securing news before anyone else can help them forecast the stock prices and enjoy great profit, or perhaps capture the investment opportunity. However, it is no easy feat to determine to what extent the two are related, come up with the investment decision based on news, or find out such investment information is valid. If the significance of news and its impact on the stock market are analyzed, it will be possible to extract the information that can assist the investment decisions. The reality however is that the world is inundated with a massive wave of news in real time. And news is not patterned text. This study suggests the stock-index invest model based on "News Big Data" opinion mining that systematically collects, categorizes and analyzes the news and creates investment information. To verify the validity of the model, the relationship between the result of news opinion mining and stock-index was empirically analyzed by using statistics. Steps in the mining that converts news into information for investment decision making, are as follows. First, it is indexing information of news after getting a supply of news from news provider that collects news on real-time basis. Not only contents of news but also various information such as media, time, and news type and so on are collected and classified, and then are reworked as variable from which investment decision making can be inferred. Next step is to derive word that can judge polarity by separating text of news contents into morpheme, and to tag positive/negative polarity of each word by comparing this with sentimental dictionary. Third, positive/negative polarity of news is judged by using indexed classification information and scoring rule, and then final investment decision making information is derived according to daily scoring criteria. For this study, KOSPI index and its fluctuation range has been collected for 63 days that stock market was open during 3 months from July 2011 to September in Korea Exchange, and news data was collected by parsing 766 articles of economic news media M company on web page among article carried on stock information>news>main news of portal site Naver.com. In change of the price index of stocks during 3 months, it rose on 33 days and fell on 30 days, and news contents included 197 news articles before opening of stock market, 385 news articles during the session, 184 news articles after closing of market. Results of mining of collected news contents and of comparison with stock price showed that positive/negative opinion of news contents had significant relation with stock price, and change of the price index of stocks could be better explained in case of applying news opinion by deriving in positive/negative ratio instead of judging between simplified positive and negative opinion. And in order to check whether news had an effect on fluctuation of stock price, or at least went ahead of fluctuation of stock price, in the results that change of stock price was compared only with news happening before opening of stock market, it was verified to be statistically significant as well. In addition, because news contained various type and information such as social, economic, and overseas news, and corporate earnings, the present condition of type of industry, market outlook, the present condition of market and so on, it was expected that influence on stock market or significance of the relation would be different according to the type of news, and therefore each type of news was compared with fluctuation of stock price, and the results showed that market condition, outlook, and overseas news was the most useful to explain fluctuation of news. On the contrary, news about individual company was not statistically significant, but opinion mining value showed tendency opposite to stock price, and the reason can be thought to be the appearance of promotional and planned news for preventing stock price from falling. Finally, multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to derive function of investment decision making on the basis of relation between positive/negative opinion of news and stock price, and the results showed that regression equation using variable of market conditions, outlook, and overseas news before opening of stock market was statistically significant, and classification accuracy of logistic regression accuracy results was shown to be 70.0% in rise of stock price, 78.8% in fall of stock price, and 74.6% on average. This study first analyzed relation between news and stock price through analyzing and quantifying sensitivity of atypical news contents by using opinion mining among big data analysis techniques, and furthermore, proposed and verified smart investment decision making model that could systematically carry out opinion mining and derive and support investment information. This shows that news can be used as variable to predict the price index of stocks for investment, and it is expected the model can be used as real investment support system if it is implemented as system and verified in the future.

Health Concern, Health Practice and ADL of The Elderly Who Stay at Home in a Rural Community (농촌(農村) 재택노인(財宅老人)들의 건강관심도(健康關心度), 건강실천행위(健康實踐行爲)와 일상생활동작능력(日常生活動作能力))

  • Eom, Young-Hee;Kam, Sin;Han, Chang-Hyun;Cha, Byung-Jun;Kim, Sang-Soon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.269-289
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    • 1999
  • This study was conducted to examine the relationship among health concern, health practice and ADL of elderly staying at home in a rural community and their affecting factors. Data were collected through direct interviews made with 480 old people aged more than sixty-five from November 15, 1998 to December 20, 1998. Out of 189 male and 291 female, the high-level group that showed high health concern accounted for 44.4%, the medium-level group for 13.1%, and the low-level group for 42.5%, in the health practice, the high-level group accounted for 3.8%, the medium-level group for 18.8%, and the low-level group for 77.5%. In the self-rated health status, the high-level group accounted for 29.0%, the medium-level group for 31.0%, and the low-level group for 40.0%, and in the ADL, the high ADL group accounted for 91.5%, and the low-level ADL group for 8.5%. The result of the chi-square test showed that for male, there was a significant relation between the health concern and the health practice index score. In the relation between the health practice index score and the self-rated health status, there was significant positive relationship between health practice index and self-rated health status, and in the relation between the health practice Index score and the ADL, old people with higher health practices showed good ADL(but not significant). Old people with good ADL also showed good self-rated health status. In the multiple regression analysis where the health practice was used as a dependent variable, the health concern was added to the sociodemographic variables as an independent variables, a formula was formed for male old people only and ones with high concern in health showed good health practice. In the multiple logistic regression analysis where the sociodemographic variables to which the health practices was added were used as an independent variable and the ADL as a dependent variable, the ADL appeared to be not good if for male old people the living costs were born by their sons and daughters and as for female old people their ages increased, but it was good if old people had sources of health information such as hospitals or health centers. The self-rated health status was worse, for male old people, if they had short living costs or diseases and for female old people, if they had spouses, living costs born by their sons and daughters or diseases, but it was better, for male old people, if they had periodical gatherings or carried out health practices a lot, and for female old people, if they had sources of health information such as hospitals or health centers or carried out health practices a lot. In view of the results stated above, the higher the old people had health concern, the more they carried out health practices, and the more they carried out health practices, the better they had ADL and self-rated health status that served as the level of health. Further, the better ADL, the better self-rated health status.

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The Relation Between Work-Related Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA) among Vehicle Assembly Workers (자동차 조립 작업자들에서 상지 근골격계의 인간공학적 작업평가(Rapid Upper Limb Assessment) 결과와 자각증상과의 연관성)

  • Kim, Jae-Young;Kim, Hae-Joon;Choi, Jae-Wook
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.48-59
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    • 1999
  • Objectives. This study was conducted to evaluate the association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA) in vehicle assembly line workers. The goal of this study is to show the feasibility of RULA as a checklist for work related musculoskeletal symptoms (WMSDs) in Korean workers. Methods. The total number of 199 people from the department of assembly and 115 people from the department of Quality Control(QC) in automotive plant were subjects for this cross sectional study. A standard symptom questionnaire survey has been used for the individual characteristics, work history, musculosketal symptoms and non-occupational covariates. The data were obtained by applying one-on-one interview for the all subjects. RULA has been applied for ergonomic work posture analysis and the primary ergonomic risk sure was computed by RULA method. Association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and RULA were assessed by multiple logistic regression analysis. Results. A total of 314 workers was examined. The prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms by NIOSH case definition was 62.4%. The distribution of musculoskeletal symptoms by the part of the body turned out to be following; back:41.4%, neck: 32.8%, shoulder: 26.4%, arm: 10.5% and hand:29.3%. The relationship of the individual RULA scores were statistically significant for the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms. As the result of the multiple logistic regressioin analysis, grand final score (OR=2.250 95% CI: 1.402-3.612) was associated with musculoskeletal symptoms in any part of the body.; upper arm score(OR=1.786 95% CI: 1.036-3.079) and posture score A(OR=1.634 95% CI: 1.016-2.626) in neck; muscel use score(OR=3.076 95% CI:1.782-5.310) and posture score A(OR=1.798 95% CI: 1.072-3.017) in shoulder; upper arm score(OR=1.715 95% CI: 1.083-2.715) and muscel use score(OR=2.057 95% CI:1.303-3.248) in neck & shoulder; muscle use score(OR=10.662 95% CI: 3.180-35.742) in arm; writst/wist score(OR=2.068 95% CI: 1.130-3.786) and muscle use score(OR=2.215 95% CI: 1.284-3.819) in hand & wrist.; muscle use score of trunk (OR=2.601 95% CI: 1.147-5.901) in back. Conclusions. Musculoskeletal symptoms of the extremities were strongly associated with individual RULA body score. These results show that RULA can be used as a useful assessment tool for the evaluation of musculoskeletal loading which is known to contribute to work-related musculoskeletal disorders. RULA also can be used as a screening tool or incorporated into a wider ergonomic assessment of epidemiological, physical, mental, environmental and organizational factors. As shown in this study, complement of the analysis system for the other risk factors and characterizing between the upper limb and back part will be needed for future work.

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Factors Associated with Care Burden among Family Caregivers of Terminally Ill Cancer Patients (말기암환자 가족 간병인의 간병 부담과 관련된 요인)

  • Lee, Jee Hye;Park, Hyun Kyung;Hwang, In Cheol;Kim, Hyo Min;Koh, Su-Jin;Kim, Young Sung;Lee, Yong Joo;Choi, Youn Seon;Hwang, Sun Wook;Ahn, Hong Yup
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: It is important to alleviate care burden for terminal cancer patients and their families. This study investigated the factors associated with care burden among family caregivers (FCs) of terminally ill cancer patients. Methods: We analyzed data from 289 FCs of terminal cancer patients who were admitted to palliative care units of seven medical centers in Korea. Care burden was assessed using the Korean version of Caregiver Reaction Assessment (CRA) scale which comprises five domains. A multivariate logistic regression model with stepwise variable selection was used to identify factors associated with care burden. Results: Diverse associating factors were identified in each CRA domain. Emotional factors had broad influence on care burden. FCs with emotional distress were more likely to experience changes to their daily routine (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 2.54; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.29~5.02), lack of family support (aOR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.04~4.97) and health issues (aOR, 5.44; 2.50~11.88). Family functionality clearly reflected a lack of support, and severe family dysfunction was linked to financial issues as well. FCs without religion or comorbid conditions felt more burdened. The caregiving duration and daily caregiving hours significantly predicted FCs' lifestyle changes and physical burden. FCs who were employed, had weak social support or could not visit frequently, had a low self-esteem. Conclusion: This study indicates that it is helpful to understand FCs' emotional status and family functions to assess their care burden. Thus, efforts are needed to lessen their financial burden through social support systems.

Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

Associations of Social Participation and Trust with Suicidal Ideation and Attempt in Communities with High Mortality (사망률이 높은 지역사회에서 사회적 참여와 신뢰의 자살 생각 및 시도와 연관성)

  • Ha, Mi-Oak;Kim, Jang-Rak;Jeong, Baekgeun;Kang, Yune-Sik;Park, Ki-Soo
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.116-129
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: This study was performed to identify the associations of social capital with suicidal thoughts and attempts in Korean communities with poor health. Methods: We used the data from community health interviews conducted at 40 administrative sections (dong, eup, or myeon) with high mortality from August to October in 2010, 2011, and 2012 as part of the Health Plus Happiness Plus Projects in Gyeongsangnam-do Province. The 8,800 study subjects composed of 220 adults systematically sampled from each administrative section were asked if they had thought about suicide or had attempted suicide within 1 year. The social participation was measured with 'participation in formal and/or informal group' and trust using responses to three questions about trust of others. Results: The prevalence of suicidal ideation and attempt within 1 year were 10.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The logistic regression analysis revealed that those who participated in only informal groups, or had highest trust level reported less suicidal ideation, or attempt after adjusting for socio-demographic factors (sex, age, marital status, occupation, and food affordability), self-rated health, and health behaviors (smoking, alcohol drinking, and exercise). Conclusions: This study suggested social capital such as social participation and trust was associated with less suicide ideation and attempt. More studies are warranted for the association of social capital with suicidal behavior.

Classifying Predominant Type and Examining Risk Factors for Recurrence of Child Maltreatment (아동학대사례의 잠재유형화와 유형별 재학대 위험요인)

  • Lee, Sang-Gyun;Lee, Bong Joo;Kim, Sewon;Kim, Hyun-Soo;Yoo, Joan P.;Jang, Hwa Jung;Chin, Meejung;Park, Ji-Myung
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.171-208
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to classify the underlying and parsimonious types of child maltreatment and examine whether the effects of risk factors on child maltreatment recurrence differ by type of maltreatment. We utilized the multiyear national administrative data from the National Child Maltreatment Information System collected by Child Protection Agency in Korea. Of 26,921 child maltreatment victims reported and substantiated on or after January 1, 2012, 1,447 children who had recurrence of child maltreatment until December 31, 2015 were selected as maltreatment recurrence group and 4,580 children who had not experienced maltreatment since first substantiation were assigned as maltreatment non-recurrence group. Latent class analysis(LCA) and latent transition analysis(LTA) were used to group children with similar maltreatment subtypes into discrete classes of child maltreatment recurrence. Logistic regression is employed to examine the association between the child maltreatment predominant types and risk factors for recurrence. Results of LCA and LTA showed four latent classes representing predominant type of child maltreatment: 'physical abuse predominant type', 'emotional abuse predominant type', 'sexual abuse predominant type', and 'neglect type'. Significant differences in the effect of risk factors among latent classes were found in child's age and gender, perpetrator's gender, family poverty, biological parent as the perpetrator, domestic violence toward partner, perpetrator's alcoholic problem, insufficient parenting skills, and out-of-home care service, Based on these findings, results suggested how the typology can be used to guide decision about who to target in prevention and intervention programs, and which features of risk factors to target. Practice and policy implications as well as further research tasks were discussed in the lights of searching for useful and important strategies to prevent recurrence of child maltreatment.

A Study on the Effect of Benefit Limit Measure on the likelihood of the late payers of paying missed health insurance premium: The Case of Korea (건강보험료 체납자에 대한 급여제한 사전통지제도의 효과성 분석)

  • Cho, Byong-Hee;Yoo, Taekyun;Yun, Seong-Won
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.421-450
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    • 2013
  • One of the challenging tasks of the National Health Insurance Corporation(NHIC). the only public insurance institution administrating the Korea's compulsory national health insurance(NHI) system, is to make those NHI beneficiaries who fail to make a scheduled monthly premium payment to pay. For this purpose, the NHIC has been using a measure known as 'Benefit Limit Measure(BLM)' in which those who miss premium payment for six or more month's in total are classified as 'late payer' and are sent warnings and late payer status notices. If the late payers fail to make a full payment of missed premiums even after receiving the written notices, the NHIC can order a temporary seizure of the late payer's property until all missed premiums plus interest are paid. Recently, the BLM has been criticized by the public of its cruel nature, and its effectiveness has been questioned because no empirical evidence has been collected. In this study, the authors using the NHIC data set attempted to analyze the effectiveness of the BLM. Those late payers for whom the BLM was administered were compared to those not in terms of the likelihood of paying missed premium payments with a series of logistic regression analyses models. Data analyses results showed that the likelihood of paying one or more month's unpaid premium of the former group was 14 to 46 times higher than the latter. It, however, was also found that the BLM was only effective to make no more than 12% of the late payers to pay at all. Based on the study findings, the authors made a few recommendations regarding the BLM.

Factors Influencing Satisfaction on Home Visiting Health Care Service of the Elderly based on the degree of chronic diseases (만성질환 유병상태에 따른 노인 방문건강관리 서비스 만족도 영향요인 연구)

  • Seo, Daram;Shon, Changwoo
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.271-284
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to derive factors that affect the satisfaction of home visiting health care services and to develop effective community care models by using the results of Seoul's outreach service which is the basis for Korean community care. The population of the study was the elderly aged 65 and 70 who participated in the Seoul's outreach community services 3rd stage (July 2017 - June 2018) and 4th stage (July 2018 to June 2019). 2,200 people were extracted by the proportional allocation method and home visit interviews were conducted on them. Subjects were divided into sub-groups based on chronic disease prevalence, and logistic regression was conducted to derive factors that affect the satisfaction of home visiting health care services. The results demonstrated that the elderly without chronic diseases were more satisfied when they received health education and counseling services, the elderly with one chronic disease were more satisfied when they received Community resource-linked services. In the case of elderly people with two or more chronic diseases, the service satisfaction level is increased when health condition assessment and Community resource-linked services are provided. Regardless of whether or not they have chronic diseases, service delivery time was a factor that increased satisfaction in home visiting health care. And the degree of explanation understanding was a factor that increased satisfaction for both single and complex chronic patients. Home Visiting health care services based on the community is a key component of the ongoing community care. In order to increase the sustainability and effectiveness of community care in the future, Community-oriented health care services based on the degree of chronic diseases of the elderly should be provided. In order to provide more effective services, however, it is necessary (1) to establish a linkage system to share health information of the subject held by the National Health Insurance Service to local governments and (2) to provide capacity-building education for visiting nurses to improve the quality of home visiting health care services. It is hoped that this study will be us ed as bas ic data for the successful settlement of community care.

Factors Associated With Suicidal Attempt among Suicidal Ideators of Korean Adults (한국 성인 자살관념자의 자살시도 연관 요인)

  • Yuncheol, Choi;Hyunseuk, Kim;Sang-Shin, Lee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2022
  • Objectives : The study aimed to identify factors associated with suicidal attempt in Korean adults experiencing thoughts of suicide. Methods : This study analyzed outcomes of suicidal behavior in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2015, 2017, and 2019. This survey was administered by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). The suicidal idea group was divided into individuals who had attempted suicide (n=92) and those who had not (n=831). Complex samples crosstabs analysis was conducted to compare the two groups' sociodemographic, psychiatric, and clinical characteristics. In addition, factors related to attempted suicide were investigated using complex samples logistic regression analysis. Results : The attempted suicide group had significantly higher rates of depression, recent psychiatric counseling, and suicidal plan (p<0.001) than the non-attempting group. In addition, the groups differed significantly in the frequency of binge drinking and smoking (p<0.05). Adjusted multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of a suicidal plan (Odds ratio [OR]=8.46, 95% Confidential Intervals [CI]=4.72-15.00), daily binge drinking (OR=3.14, 95% CI=1.26-7.84), psychiatric counseling within the past year (OR=3.03, 95% CI=1.75-5.23), low income level (OR=2.89, 95% CI=1.17-7.10), and history of depression (OR=2.39, 95% CI=1.29-4.42) were significantly associated with suicidal attempt. Conclusions : Factors associated with suicidal attempt among suicidal ideators in the general Korean population were identified across all sociodemographic, psychiatric, and clinical variables. Assessment of and intervention in suicidal plan, binge drinking, income level, and depression might prevent progression to suicidal attempt among those contemplating suicide.