• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.505-519
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• 2006

We consider zero-inflated count data, which is discrete count data but has too many zeroes compared to the Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated data can be found in various areas. Despite its increasing importance in practice, appropriate statistical inference on zero-inflated data is limited. Classical inference based on a large number theory does not fit unless the sample size is very large. And regular Poisson model shows lack of St due to many zeroes. To handle the difficulties, a mixture of distributions are considered for the zero-inflated data. Specifically, a mixture of a point mass at zero and a Poisson distribution is employed for the data. In addition, when there exist meaningful covariates selected to the response variable, loglinear link is used between the mean of the response and the covariates in the Poisson distribution part. We propose a Bayesian inference for the zero-inflated Poisson regression model by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We applied the proposed method to a Korean oral hygienic data and compared the inference results with other models. We found that the proposed method is superior in that it gives small parameter estimation error and more accurate predictions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.407-416
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• 2011

This study expressed the reservoir's storage-discharge relation as a non-linear reservoir model and theoretically quantified the reservoir storage effect. Among those non-linear functions like exponential function, logarithmic function and power function considered, the exponential function of the storage-discharge relation was found to be the most valid. The non-linear reservoir model proposed was applied to the Chungju Dam and the Soyang River Dam, whose storage effects during flood were estimated to be about 23 hours and 43 hours, respectively. This result indicates that the Choongju Dam, even though its size and total storage volume are similar to those of the Soyang River Dam, does not achieve enough storage effect as its basin size and the inflow amount are much larger.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.101-127
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• 2010

The purpose of the research is to tackle proximity effects (PEs) when nonmarket valuation method CVM is applied to environmental goods such as tidal flats. 1,000 households are surveyed in the ratio of national household for the research. The sample are reclassified into five areas by 30-minute distance. Log-linear are used to analysis PEs in the research. On conclusion log-linear model regarding income effects proves that PEs are apparently represented in NMVMs(${\theta}_1$ >0. ${\theta}_2$ >0 and $dum1{\neq}0$, $dum2{\neq}0$, $dum3{\neq}0$, $dum4{\neq}0$) as a result of a 5 per cent significant level of t -test and F-test, finally rejecting the null hypothesis. In addition, WTP of area I respondents shows 26 per cent more then that of area V respondents, which is from \87,969 to \64,866 in the open-ended format. Finally, the research proves that the PEs in CVM are evidently represented with the econometric model, hence the PEs have to be embedded into the questionnaire of non-market valuation methods with the environmental goods to reduce the underestimation and improve the estimation accuracy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.857-871
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• 2013

Export credit insurance is a policy tool for export growth. In the era of free trade under the governance of WTO, export credit insurance is still allowed as one of the few instruments to increase exports. This paper, using data on short-term export insurance contracts issued to foreign subsidiaries of Korean companies, calculates the expected loss per exposure by combining the effect of risk factors (credit rate of foreign importers, size of mother company, and payment period) on loss frequency and loss severity in different levels. We, applying generalized linear models (GLM), first fit loss frequency and loss severity to negative binomial and lognormal distribution, respectively, and then estimate the loss frequency rate per contract and the ratio of loss severity to coverage amount. Finally, we calculate the expected loss per exposure for each level of risk factors by combining these two rates. Based on the result of statistical analysis, we present the implication for the current premium rate of export insurance.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.175-178
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• 2004

범주형 자료분석에서 차원축소(collapsibility)는 오즈비로 설명되었다. 실제의 $2\times2\timesK$ 분할표 자료를 이 이론에 적용시켰을 때 오즈비의 값으로 차원축소가 가능한지의 여부를 판단하기는 어렵다. 오즈비를 시각적으로 표현하는 방법 중에서 Doi, Nakamura와 Yamamoto(2001)가 제안한 Contour plot을 통해서 분할표 자료를 설명하는 것은 가능하지만 차원축소의 가능성을 결정하기에는 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 오즈비의 신뢰구간을 시각적으로 표현할 수 있는 방법으로 Barrowman과 Myers(2003)가 제안한 Raindrop plot을 이용하여 $P_{\lambda,;,T}^M-policy$ 분할표 자료를 설명할 수 있으며 동시에 차원축소의 가능성을 판단할 수 있는 방법을 제안하고자 한다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.649-658
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• 2008

As the Eating Out Businesses are making rapid progress and most of the schools and the firms serve the meals, the foodborne disease has occurred increasingly and lots of researches and the policies are studied to prevent it. In Korea, the foodborne disease index for prevention is developed by using bacterial growth rate on the temperature to give the information about the danger level of the foodborne disease, but the gap between real status of the occurrences and the predicted danger level has been pointed out. This study aims at developing the index of the foodborne occurrence based on the log linear model using the data of the foodborne disease occurrence and the meteorological data for the last three years($2004{\sim}2006$). Comparison between the new index and the existing index showed that the new index is better in explaining the foodborne disease occurrence.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.6D
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• pp.577-585
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• 2010

Traffic accidents are caused by several factors such as drivers, vehicles, and road environment. It is necessary to investigate and analyze them in advance to prevent similar and repetitive traffic accidents. Especially, the human factor is most significant element and traffic accidents by drinking-driving caused from human factor have become social problem to be paid attention to. The study analyzes traffic accidents resulting from drinking-driving and the effects of driver's attributes and environmental factors on them. The study is composed as two parts. First, the log-linear model is applied to analyze that accidents by drinking or non-drinking driving associate with road geometry, weather condition and personal characteristics. Probability is tested for drinking-driving accidents relative to non-drinking drive accidents. The study analyzes probability differences between genders, between ages, and between kinds of vehicles through odds multipliers. Second, traffic accidents related to drinking are classified into property damage, minor injury, heavy injury, and death according to their severity. Heavy injury is more serious than minor one and death is more serious than heavy injury. The ordinal regression models are established to find effecting factors on traffic accident severity.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.55-69
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• 2003

In this article, we propose the weighted LAD (least absolute deviations) estimators for multi-dimensional contingency tables and drive an estimation method to estimate the proposed estimators. To illustrate the robustness of the estimators, simulation results are presented for several models Including log-linear models and models for ordinal variables in multidimensional contingency tables. Examples were also introduced.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.409-409
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• 1998

본 연구는 운전자 특성 및 교통사고 발생유형에 따른 사고 심각도(Severity)를 분석함으로써 교통사고를 유발키 쉬운 운전자 집단과 사고 발생시 위험도가 높은 사고유형을 규명하고자 하였다. 교통사고 위험집단 분석을 위한 운전자 특성은 성별, 차종, 연령 등을 대상으로 하였으며, 사고유형별 심각도 분석은 사고유형을 여덟 가지로 분류하고, 결과의 신뢰성 확보를 위하여 안전벨트 착용여부를 추가하여 상해정도와의 관계를 비교하였다. 로그-선형 모형 및 로짓 모형을 사용하여 카테고리 자료를 분석하였으며, 그 결과 위험집단 분석에서는 '20세 미만의 이륜차 운전자', '41세에서 50세까지의 택시운전자'가 가장 위험한 것으로, 또한 남자보다는 여자가 승용차, 택시, 이륜차 등에 관계되었을 때 위험한 것으로 조사되었다. 사고유형과 심각도와의 관계에서는 정면충돌 사고와 앞지르기 시 우회전시 사고가 기여위험도(Odds Multiplier)가 매우 높아 부상 또는 사망사고와 연계될 가능성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 교통사고의 예방과 사고발생시의 심각도 경감을 위해서는 교통사고 취약계층으로 분석된 위험집단에 대한 교통안전 교육 및 홍보가 강화되어야 하고, 정면충돌 사고와 앞지르기 시 우회전시 발생하는 사고를 줄일 수 있는 방안이 연구되어야 할 것이다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.25-44
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• 2001

본 논문의 목적은 양분선택질문형 비시장가치평가법을 통한 편익추정에 사용되는 제 함수의 적합성 여부를 검증하기 위해 사용될 수 있는 방법론들을 비교 검토하는 것이다. 여가수렵의 환경적 요인의 변화에 따른 편익추정에 사용된 함수의 적합성을 판단하기 위해 변이계수접근법, 함수설정 오류 테스트, 그리고 비모수접근법 등이 각 함수에 적용되었다. 결과에 따르면, 편익추정에 이용된 세 가지 로짓함수(선형, 로그, 쉐어모형) 모두 적합한 것으로 판정되었다. 주어진 함수형태에 적용된 세 방법론간에 밀접한 일치성을 보였으며 경우에 따라서는 상호보완적이라는 함축성을 보이기도 하였다 이와 같은 결론은 로짓함수로부터 추정된 값들에 Krinsky-Robb 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 구축한 신뢰구간의 함수간 비교를 통해서도 확인되었다. 주어진 환경 시나리오에 대해 각 함수로부터 도출된 평균 추정치의 신뢰구간이 모두 충분히 중복되었기 때문에 편익추정과 관련하여 함수형태간에 유의적 차이가 없음이 입증된 것이다.