• Title/Summary/Keyword: 동태적변화

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A Dynamic Analysis of the Women's Labor Market Transition: With a Focus on the Relationship between Productive and Reproductive Labor (여성의 생산노동과 재생산노동의 상호연관성이 취업에 미치는 영향에 관한 경험적 연구)

  • 이재열
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.5-44
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    • 1996
  • Wornen's lahor market participation as well as the policy concern for wider utilization of married women, have continuously grown up. However, research efforts on the determinants of women's labor market participation, in the context of the relationship hetween life courses and active entry into lahor market, has been far behind the growing interest in this field. This study has conducted an event histoiry analysis of women's labor market transition utilizing personal occupational history data collected by the Korea Institute for Women's Development in 1991. The analysis is divided into tow parts: First part introduces logit regression to analyze the determinants of women's labor market participation and exit. The second part employs Cox regression to see the variation of transition rate between employment and non-employment. The result shows that there is a wide variation in women's labor market participation according to age, cohort, and family formation. Special note is needed for the significantly negative effect of marriage and child birth on labor market participation. The transition pattern of lower class women with less education fits well to the prediction of neo-classical economics; but the tendency of highly educated women's regression to non-employment reveals the strong influence of the unfavorable labor market structure, which can be better explained by the neo-structuralist perspective. There is a strong trade-off between productive and reproductive labor of women, which can only be corrected by strong policy implementation, such as extended child care facilities, abolition of discriminatory employment practices, and expansion of flexible part-time employment.

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An Estimation of the Change in Transshipment Traffic in Northeast Asia using the System Dynamics (SD기법에 의한 한.중.일 환적물동량 변화량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yeo, Gi-Tae;Jung, Hyun-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.165-185
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    • 2011
  • Transshipment traffic has significant meanings because it gives positive effects on increasing the container handling volumes in seaports, and revitalizes the regional and national development. Korean container port's transshipment traffic volumes, however, will slowly decrease due to the direct ships' calling into Chinese ports, which recently has a huge development plan. There are a lot of stress on forecasting the transshipment traffic volumes because the Korean container port development plans are designed based on this container traffic which consists of import and export traffic, and transshipment traffic. The transshipment traffic volumes are assumed to occupy 40% of total container traffic volumes. Despite of the importance of forecasting the transshipment traffic, a little studies are suggested using the concepts of the port competitiveness. In this respect, this study aims to estimate the Port Competitiveness Index and Transshipment traffic Volumes using the System Dynamics methodology. As a result, transshipment traffic volumes are predicted as: 20 million TEUs in Korea under the 4% annual increasing rates, 90 million TEUs in China under the 6% annual increasing rates, and 2.5 million TEUs in Japan under the 1% annual increasing rates respectively. The suggested results can be used to enhance the container port competitiveness and produce more transshipment traffic volumes.

The Relationship among Returns, Volatilities, Trading Volume and Open Interests of KOSPI 200 Futures Markets (코스피 200 선물시장의 수익률, 변동성, 거래량 및 미결제약정간의 관련성)

  • Moon, Gyu-Hyen;Hong, Chung-Hyo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.107-134
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    • 2007
  • This paper tests the relationship among returns, volatilities, contracts and open interests of KOSPI 200 futures markets with the various dynamic models such as granger-causality, impulse response, variance decomposition and ARMA(1, 1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The sample period is from July 7, 1998 to December 29, 2005. The main empirical results are as follows; First, both contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market tend to lead the returns of that according to the results of granger-causality, impulse response and variance decomposition with VAR. These results are likely to support the KOSPI 200 futures market seems to be inefficient with rejecting the hypothesis 1. Second, we also find that the returns and volatilities of the KOSPI 200 futures market are effected by both contract change and open interest change of that due to the results of ARMA(1,1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1)-M. These results also reject the hypothesis 1 and 2 suggesting the evidences of inefficiency of the KOSPI 200 futures market. Third, the study shows the asymmetric information effects among the variables. In addition, we can find the feedback relationship between the contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market.

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An Empirical Analysis on A Refiner's Asymmetric Gasoline Price Adjustment (정유사 휘발유 공급가격의 비대칭적 가격조정에 대한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Youngduk
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.613-641
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    • 2013
  • This paper uses the error correction model to analyse dynamic gasoline price adjustments of the four refiners. Unlike the existing studies, this model allows a refiner's asymmetric adjustment to changes in the other refiners' prices as well as in its own price and costs. With the estimation results, we can obtain the following findings. First, there are the asymmetric price adjustments to changes in exchange rate and international gasoline price, but showing opposing directions. Second, for most of the refiners, the prices respond immediately to the lagged deviation from the long run equilibrium price, but asymmetrically respond for a few refiners. Third, there are some refiners that adjust their price to the other refiners' price deviation from the long run equilibrium. For some refiners, there are competitive price adjustments to the others' price deviations. These findings imply that a refiner faces inelastic demand, intends to maintain implicitly a relative level of its own price to others, and tends to respond competitively to the others' price deviation from the equilibrium.

An Empirical Study on Causality among Trading Volume of Busan, Kawangyang and Incheon port (부산항, 광양항, 인천항의 물동량간 인과관계 분석)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Choon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.61-82
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causuality among export and import trading volume of port of Busan, Kwangyang, Incheon and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And We apply Granger causality and impulse response and variance decomposition based on VECM. The results indicate that the trading volume of port of Busan is not largely influenced by that of port of Kawangyang and Incheon, but the trading volume of port of Kawangyang and Incheon is largely influenced by other ports including port of Busan. The result suggest that government has to focus on policy that the port of Kawangyang and Incheon can raise its own competitiveness in the world market.

Real and Monetary Determinants of Korea's Real Exchange Rate (우리나라 실질환율(實質換率)의 결정요인(決定要因))

  • Park, Won-am
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.21-39
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    • 1991
  • This paper introduces a two-sector model to analyze the real and monetary determinants of Korea's real exchange rate. So far, most studies on Korea's exchange rate have concentrated on the behavior of nominal exchange rate, but this study proposes a dynamic model of real exchange rate behavior in developing countries and estimates the real and financial determinants of Korea's real exchange rate behavior. The estimation was performed over the period of 1980-89. The results show many interesting things. First, the monetary and fiscal expansion led to a real appreciation, which suggests that the monetary and fiscal stances be kept sound for a real depreciation. Second, the improvement in the terms of trade led to a real depreciation. This experience is in the contrast to the popular view that the improvement in the terms of trade will result in a real appreciation. Third, the productivity growth led to a real appreciation, but this effect of the Ricardo-Balassa type was not significant. Finally, the nominal devaluation was quite effective to produce a real depreciation. This result also supports Korea's exchange rate policy in the 1980s which was based upon the real target approach instead of nominal anchor approach.

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The Effects of Technological Progress on Growth, Employment and Distribution (성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배에 대한 기술진보의 파급효과)

  • Im, Yang-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2005.02a
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    • pp.220-267
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구의 분석목표는 순요소증가형 CES 생산함수를 실증적으로 추정함으로써 한국 제조업부문의 기술변화의 유형을 규명하고 성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배에 대한 기술진보의 파급효과를 분석하는 것이다. 이 분석결과를 토대로 하여, 본 연구는 성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배를 동시적으로 추구할 수 있는 정책방향을 기술경제 패러다임의 시각에서 제시하였다. 본 연구의 실증적 분석결과는 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있다 : 한국 제조업부문의 기술변화의 유형은 Hicks형 비(非)중립적인 자본사용적(B(t)>0) 즉 노동절약적 기술진보인 것으로 추정되었다. 이 결과, 잠재적 고용수준은 감소될 수밖에 없었다. 또한, Hicks형 중립적 기술진보를 나타내는 총요소생산성 증가율(${\gamma}$)은 감소하였던 반면에, 비(非)중립적 기술진보를 나타내는 요소간 대체탄력도(${\sigma}$)와 자본집약도(${\delta}$)는 증가하였다. 이에 따라 노동(L)이 자본(K)으로 광범위하게 대체되었을 뿐만 아니라, 자본투입(K)이 노동투입(L)보다 상대적으로 더 빠르게 증가 (K/K > L/L 즉 k/k > 0)되었다. 이 결과, 소득분배구조가 악화 (S/S< 0)된 것으로 추정되었다. 그러므로, 오늘날 경제성장의 한계 봉착, 대량실업의 폭발, 계층간 갈등의 심화를 초래한 요인은, 성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배를 동시적으로 추구하는 산업 ${\cdot}$ 기술경제정책을 일관성있게, 또한 과감히 추진하지 않았던 결과, 노동사용적 중소기업의 몰락, 노동의 생산효율성 증진을 위한 인적자본 투자의 미흡, 자본의 생산효율성 증진을 위한 자본절약적 기술진보의 저조, 총요소 생산성 증가의 부진, 만성적인 인플레이션에 의한 실질 임금수준의 하락 및 실물 자산가치의 상승 등이라고 말할 수 있다. 따라서 성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배의 조화는 바로 노동효율 증가형 기순혁신이며, 이를 위한 인적자본에의 투자라고 말할 수 있다. 본 연구가 기술경제 패러다임(techno-economic paradigm)의 시각에서 제시하는 한국경제의 성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배를 위한 정책방향은 다음과 같은 동태적발전과정으로 요약할 수 있다 : 기초과학연구능력 확충 ${\rightarrow}$ 소화 ${\cdot}$ 흡수 ${\cdot}$ 개량 ${\rightarrow}$ 토착화 능력의 배양 ${\rightarrow}$ 자체기술개발, 선진기술 도입, 산업간 및 산업내 기술확산, 국제기술협력 ${\rightarrow}$ 기술혁신의 촉진 ${\rightarrow}$ 총요소생산성과 기업경쟁력(자원 및 역량, 프로세스 경쟁력, 품질경쟁력, 시장경쟁력, 고객성과, 시장성과, 재무성과)의 제고 ${\rightarrow}$ 가격경쟁력(임금, 금리, 물류비용, 환율 등)과 비(非)가격경쟁력(디자인, 에프터서비스, 품질, 운송 등)의 제고 ${\rightarrow}$ 국가경쟁력의 제고 ${\rightarrow}$ 국제수지 흑자 ${\rightarrow}$ 성장 ${\rightarrow}$ 물가 및 고용 안정 ${\rightarrow}$ 분배 ${\rightarrow}$ 최대다수의 최대행복이다.

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Development of Ship Valuation Model by Neural Network (신경망기법을 활용한 선박 가치평가 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Donggyun;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ship valuation model by utilizing the neural network model. The target of the valuation was secondhand VLCC. The variables were set as major factors inducing changes in the value of ship through prior research, and the corresponding data were collected on a monthly basis from January 2000 to August 2020. To determine the stability of subsequent variables, a multi-collinearity test was carried out and finally the research structure was designed by selecting six independent variables and one dependent variable. Based on this structure, a total of nine simulation models were designed using linear regression, neural network regression, and random forest algorithm. In addition, the accuracy of the evaluation results are improved through comparative verification between each model. As a result of the evaluation, it was found that the most accurate when the neural network regression model, which consist of a hidden layer composed of two layers, was simulated through comparison with actual VLCC values. The possible implications of this study first, creative research in terms of applying neural network model to ship valuation; this deviates from the existing formalized evaluation techniques. Second, the objectivity of research results was enhanced from a dynamic perspective by analyzing and predicting the factors of changes in the shipping. market.

Introduction of Service Science for Sustainable Development (지속가능발전을 위한 서비스학의 도입)

  • Yeom, Baehoon;Kim, Hyunsoo
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2017
  • Humanity's sustainability issues have long been discussed, and the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) in 1987 proposed the concept of sustainable development and became a global issue. In September 2015, we announced the latest goals for sustainable development at the UN's 70th General Assembly to address social problems and achieve mature economic growth. In order to achieve social, economic and environmental sustainability goals, parallel development of various disciplines is required. However, existing disciplines are limited in supporting sustainable development due to inherent nature. This study proposes to revitalize service science research as a way to overcome limitations of existing studies, and suggests that sustainable development goals can be achieved through convergence with service science and existing disciplines. Modern economic societies need the evolutionary development of individual disciplines because the paradigm shifts from the existing tangible environment to the intangible environment, the boundary between industries is dismantled, and the boundaries between disciplines disappear. In particular, sustainable development goals require a convergent approach, so convergence service science research is useful. In this study, we analyze economics, business administration, pedagogy, sociology which are representative of related to sustainable development and suggest the necessity of introduction of service science. Through this study, the development of service science and interdisciplinary research in existing academic fields will be activated.

A Decision-Making Model of Integrated Vertical and Horizontal Move Plan for Finishing Material in Righ-Rise Building Construction (고층건물공사 마감자재의 수직$\cdot$수평이동계획이 통합된 의사결정모델)

  • Ahn Byung-Ju;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.2 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 2001
  • Of all the site logistics technologies in high-rise building construction, both vertical and horizontal move plan, are the most imperative factors. And the horizontal plan follows lift-up plan as of the vertical plan. However though it may be, temporary lifts on site are numbered by heuristic formulas. The quantity of finishing material cannot be converted into lift-up load per finishing material. The lift-up plan cannot be evaluated the feasibility for finishing material move plan by a reasonable evaluation methodology. The horizontal plan is far from the vertical one. And the information as an input data for the horizontal plan is devoid of package unit size, length, and volume per finishing material. These can hardly result in reasonable and detail decision on how much to use temporary lifts, how long to use these, and where to deposit each finishing material. Therefore, this study is to suggest a decision-making model that can integrate vertical and horizontal material move plan in high-rise building construction and make a decision the plans systematically. And the study is to explain the concept, methodology, and contents of the model applied to a virtual project, named as MT 130 (Millennium Tower 130). By the model, the planner can shift his/her thinking framework on site logistics management products-oriented Into process-oriented. He/she can manage a project by the framework as system thinking, evaluate the feasibility of a lift-up plan, and decide the horizontal plan integrated with the lift-up.

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