• Title/Summary/Keyword: 동적과정모형

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Concept of Trend Analysis of Hydrologic Extreme Variables and Nonstationary Frequency Analysis (극치수문자료의 경향성 분석 개념 및 비정상성 빈도해석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ju;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4B
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    • pp.389-397
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    • 2010
  • This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both Gumbel distribution and trend analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge by Considering Runoff Process and Groundwater Level Variation in Watershed (유역 유출과정과 지하수위 변동을 고려한 분포형 지하수 함양량 산정방안)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Kim, Nam-Won;Lee, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2007
  • In Korea, there have been various methods of estimating groundwater recharge which generally can be subdivided into three types: baseflow separation method by means of groundwater recession curve, water budget analysis based on lumped conceptual model in watershed, and water table fluctuation method (WTF) by using the data from groundwater monitoring wells. However, groundwater recharge rate shows the spatial-temporal variability due to climatic condition, land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity, so these methods have various limits to deal with these characteristics. To overcome these limitations, we present a new method of estimating recharge based on water balance components from the SWAT-MODFLOW which is an integrated surface-ground water model. Groundwater levels in the interest area close to the stream have dynamics similar to stream flow, whereas levels further upslope respond to precipitation with a delay. As these behaviours are related to the physical process of recharge, it is needed to account for the time delay in aquifer recharge once the water exits the soil profile to represent these features. In SWAT, a single linear reservoir storage module with an exponential decay weighting function is used to compute the recharge from soil to aquifer on a given day. However, this module has some limitations expressing recharge variation when the delay time is too long and transient recharge trend does not match to the groundwater table time series, the multi-reservoir storage routing module which represents more realistic time delay through vadose zone is newly suggested in this study. In this module, the parameter related to the delay time should be optimized by checking the correlation between simulated recharge and observed groundwater levels. The final step of this procedure is to compare simulated groundwater table with observed one as well as to compare simulated watershed runoff with observed one. This method is applied to Mihocheon watershed in Korea for the purpose of testing the procedure of proper estimation of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge distribution. As the newly suggested method of estimating recharge has the advantages of effectiveness of watershed model as well as the accuracy of WTF method, the estimated daily recharge rate would be an advanced quantity reflecting the heterogeneity of hydrogeology, climatic condition, land use as well as physical behaviour of water in soil layers and aquifers.

The Effects of the workforce Age Structure on Productivity or Labor Costs (사업체 근로자의 연령구성이 생산성과 인건비에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ki-Min
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we use panel dataset from Korean linked worker-firm to analyse the effects of the workforce age structure on the productivity or labor costs. We measure 'labor productivity' as added value per capita, 'cost of labor' as labor cost per capita and estimate a dynamic panel model to study the effects of the workforce age structure on the productivity or labor costs. Empirical analysis results show that the workforce age structure is positively related to productivity and labor costs, but only up to the aged of 35-39. That is, we find that an increase in the proportion of younger workers or elder workers rather than the aged 35-39 has a negative effect on productivity and labor cost. In particular, the difference between the estimation coefficient of productivity and labor cost when the share of workers aged 50 or older is increased instead of the aged 35-39 is higher than the difference between the estimation coefficient of productivity and labor cost when the share of workers aged 30 or younger is increased instead of the aged 35-39. Our results exhibit that it is reasonable for firms to worry about declining productivity of elderly workers, whereas firms already used older workers efficiently, such as by adjusting their labor costs.

Determinants and Performance of Port Logistics Service Quality (항만물류서비스품질의 결정요인과 성과분석)

  • Park, Jung-Hee;Woo, Su-Han
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.15-39
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    • 2015
  • This paper investigates the determinants of port service quality from a resources-based approach. The research model is derived from the relevant literature in port management, service quality, and resource-based theory. It is hypothesized that tangible and intangible resources contribute to port service quality, which in turn leads to the enhancement of reputation and loyalty to ports. To test this, a questionnaire survey is undertaken on three major ports in Korea: Busan, Incheon, and Gwangyang; the collected data are then analyzed using partial least squares. It is suggested that both tangible resources and intangible resources have a positive influence on general service quality and that general service quality has a positive influence on customer satisfaction, thus improving port reputation and loyalty. The contribution to the literature is that resource-based theory is applied to a port service quality model and the model is verified. In addition, an augmented model is adopted to examine the effect of individual resources on service quality. It is also possible for port managers to use the constructs to monitor their resources and develop more specific strategies to gain reputation and loyalty from customers.

Statistical testings for common stochastic trends in markets under recession (경기 침체기 시장의 공통확률추세 검정)

  • Cho, Joong-Jae;Lee, Seung-Eun;Kim, Tae-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.559-569
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    • 2016
  • A long-run relationship of stock, monetary, realty markets, and business conditions has been suggested to exist due to internal and external shocks. This study investigates whether such a relationship really exists and then performs statistical tests to discern features of the long-run adjustment processes from short-run discrepancies because it is difficult to find studies that examine the market relationship. The comovement relationship of the whole market does not appear to hold for the entire study period; however, it is found to exist for the period before the financial crisis. Estimated error correction models show consistently declining equilibrium errors each period that suggests a recovering process of the long-run equilibrium from short-run secessions.

A Coexistence Model in a Dynamic Platform with ICT-based Multi-Value Chains: focusing on Healthcare Service (ICT 기반 다중 가치사슬의 동적 플랫폼에서의 공존 모형: 의료서비스를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyun Jung;Chang, Yong Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.69-93
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    • 2017
  • The development of ICT has leaded the diversification and changes of supplies and demands in markets. It also caused the creations of a variety of values which are differentiated from those in the existing market. Therefore, a new-type market is created, which can include multi-value chains which are from ICT-based created markets as well as the existing markets. We defined the platform as the new-type market. In the platform, the multi-value chains can be coexisted with multi-values. In true market, when a new-type value chain entered into an existing market, it is general that it can be conflicted with the existing value chain in the market. The conflicted problem among multi-value chains in a market is caused by the sharing of limited market resources like suppliers, consumers, services or products among the value chains. In other words, if there are multi-value chains in the platform, then it is possible to have conflictions, overlapping, creations or losses of values among the value chains. To solve the problem, we introduce coexistence factors to reduce the conflictions to reach market equilibrium in the platform. In the other hand, it is possible to lead the creations of differentiated values from the existing market and to augment the total market values in the platform. In the early era of ICT development, ICT was introduced for improvement of efficiency and effectiveness of the value chains in the existing market. However, according to the changed role of ICT from the supporter to the promotor of the market, ICT became to lead the variations of the value chains and creations of various values in the markets. For instance, Uber Taxi created a new value chain with ICT-based new-type service or products with new resources like new suppliers and consumers. When Uber and Traditional Taxi services are playing at the same time in Taxi service platform, it is possible to create values or make conflictions among values between the new and old value chains. In this research, like Uber and traditional taxi services, if there are conflictions among the multi-value chains, then it is necessary to minimize the conflictions in the platform for the coexistence of multi-value chains which can create the value-added values in the platform. So, it is important to predict and discuss the possible conflicted problems between new and old value chains. The confliction should be solved to reach market equilibrium with multi-value chains in the platform. That is, we discuss the possibility of the coexistence of multi-value chains in the platform which are comprised of a variety of suppliers and customers. To do this, especially we are focusing on the healthcare markets. Nowadays healthcare markets are popularized in global market as well as domestic. Therefore, there are a lot of and a variety of healthcare services like Traditional-, Tele-, or Intelligent- healthcare services and so on. It shows that there are multi-suppliers, -consumers and -services as components of each different value chain in the same platform. The platform can be shared by different values that are created or overlapped by confliction and loss of values in the value chains. In this research, as was said, we focused on the healthcare services to show if a platform can be shared by different value chains like traditional-, tele-healthcare and intelligent-healthcare services and products. Additionally, we try to show if it is possible to increase the value of each value chain as well as the total value of the platform. As the result, it is possible to increase of each value of each value chain as well as the total value in the platform. Finally, we propose a coexistence model to overcome such problems and showed the possibility of coexistence between the value chains through experimentation.

Reconstruction of Remote Sensing Data based on dynamic Characteristics of Time Series Data (위성자료의 시계열 특성에 기반한 실시간 자료 재구축)

  • Jung, Myung-Hee;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Jang, Seok-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.329-335
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    • 2018
  • Satellite images, which are widely used in various applications, are very useful for monitoring the surface of the earth. Since satellite data is obtained from a remote sensor, it contains a lot of noise and errors depending on observation weather conditions during data acquisition and sensor malfunction status. Since the accuracy of the data affects the accuracy and reliability of the data analysis results, noise removal and data restoration for high quality data is important. In this study, we propose a reconstruction system that models the time dependent dynamic characteristics of satellite data using a multi-period harmonic model and performs adaptive data restoration considering the spatial correlation of data. The proposed method is a real-time restoration method and thus can be employed as a preprocessing algorithm for real-time reconstruction of satellite data. The proposed method was evaluated with both simulated data and MODIS NDVI data for six years from 2011 to 2016. Experimental results show that the proposed method has the potentiality for reconstructing high quality satellite data.

Re-Analysis of Clark Model Based on Drainage Structure of Basin (배수구조를 기반으로 한 Clark 모형의 재해석)

  • Park, Sang Hyun;Kim, Joo Cheol;Jeong, Dong Kug;Jung, Kwan Sue
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2255-2265
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    • 2013
  • This study presents the width function-based Clark model. To this end, rescaled width function with distinction between hillslope and channel velocity is used as time-area curve and then it is routed through linear storage within the framework of not finite difference scheme used in original Clark model but analytical expression of linear storage routing. There are three parameters focused in this study: storage coefficient, hillslope velocity and channel velocity. SCE-UA, one of the popular global optimization methods, is applied to estimate them. The shapes of resulting IUHs from this study are evaluated in terms of the three statistical moments of hydrologic response functions: mean, variance and the third moment about the center of IUH. The correlation coefficients to the three statistical moments simulated in this study against these of observed hydrographs were estimated at 0.995 for the mean, 0.993 for the variance and 0.983 for the third moment about the center of IUH. The shape of resulting IUHs from this study give rise to satisfactory simulation results in terms of the mean and variance. But the third moment about the center of IUH tend to be overestimated. Clark model proposed in this study is superior to the one only taking into account mean and variance of IUH with respect to skewness, peak discharge and peak time of runoff hydrograph. From this result it is confirmed that the method suggested in this study is useful tool to reflect the heterogeneity of drainage path and hydrodynamic parameters. The variation of statistical moments of IUH are mainly influenced by storage coefficient and in turn the effect of channel velocity is greater than the one of hillslope velocity. Therefore storage coefficient and channel velocity are the crucial factors in shaping the form of IUH and should be considered carefully to apply Clark model proposed in this study.

Development of a Dynamic Deformable Rubber Membrane Parapet to Cope with the Long Term Sea Level Rise and the Abnormal Waves (장기해수면 상승 및 이상파랑에 대비한 동적 가변형 고무막체 파라펫 개발)

  • Kim, Sun-Sin;Chun, In-Sik;Lee, Young-Gun;Ko, Jang-Hee;Hong, Seung-Ik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.34-42
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    • 2011
  • It's been reported that the global warming effect has invoked the ever increasing typhoon intensity and long-term sea level rise which jointly cause severe wave overtopping over breakwaters or shore dykes. A simple measure to cope with this undesirable change may be just to increase the crest height of the dykes and breakwaters. This is surely effective to prevent wave overtopping, but it also decreases the seaward visibility of coastal waterfront. In this paper, a dynamic deformable rubber membrane parapet which not only reduces wave overtopping in storm period but also secures seascapes in normal days is presented. Several optimal configurations of the parapet are proposed. Through numerical analyses using a nonlinear finite element model and hydraulic experiments, the air controlled expansion and contraction of the parapets, their behavior against wave overtopping and structural stability are investigated.

Estimation of the Spillovers during the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 동안 전이효과에 대한 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.17-37
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the global spillover effects through the existence of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the US, European and BRIC financial markets after the period from the introduction of the Euro, the financial crisis and the subsequent EU debt crisis in 2007~2010. Although the global spillover effects of the financial crisis are well described, the nature of the volatility effects and the spread mechanisms between the US, Europe and BRIC stock markets have not been systematically examined. A stepwise filtering methodology was introduced to investigate the dynamic linear and nonlinear causality, which included a vector autoregressive regression model and a multivariate GARCH model. The sample in this paper includes the post-Euro period, and also includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone financial and sovereign crisis. The empirical results can have many implications for the efficiency of the BRIC stock market. These results not only affect the predictability of this market, but can also be useful in future research to quantify the process of financial integration in the market. The interdependence between the United States, Europe and the BRIC can reveal significant implications for financial market regulation, hedging and trading strategies. And the findings show that the BRIC has been integrated internationally since the sub-prime and financial crisis erupted in the United States, and the spillover effects have become more specific and remarkable. Furthermore, there is no consistent evidence supporting the decoupling phenomenon. Some nonlinear causality persists even after filtering during the investigation period. Although the tail distribution dependence and higher moments may be significant factors for the remaining interdependencies, this can be largely explained by the simple volatility spillover effects in nonlinear causality.