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Clinical Characteristics of Arthrogryposis, Renal Tubular Dysfunction, Cholestasis(ARC) Syndrome in Korea (ARC(Arthrogryposis, Renal Tubular Dysfunction, Cholestasis) 증후군의 발병양상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Soon Min;Kim Ji Hong;Lee Jae Seung;Han Suk Joo
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.222-230
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : ARC syndrome refers to an association of arthrogryposis, renal tubular dysfunction, and cholestasis. The VPS33B gene was recently identified as the causative gene. So far, 41 cases of ARC syndrome have been reported worldwide, and it has rarely been reported in Korea. This study was conducted to report the clinical findings of seven ARC syndrome cases in Korean children, focusing especially on renal tubular dysfunction. Methods : The hospital records of 7 cases diagnosed as ARC syndrome at Severance Hospital between Mar. 1995 and Aug. 2005 were reviewed and analyzed. Results : Of the 7 cases, 4 were boys and 3 were girls. Six patients(85$\%$) were born with normal birth weight at term, and one was born at preterm. All cases presented with cholestasis and severe jaundice. According to the type of arthrogryposis described by Brown et al, type 3 and 4 were found in 2 patients and type,6, 7, and the undistributed type in one patient respectively. Other associated clinical findings were as follows : failure to thrive in 6(85$\%$), lax skin in 5(71$\%$), and gray platelet syndrome in 4(57$\%$). Urine analysis revealed 6 cases(85$\%$) with proteinuria, 3(43$\%$) with hematuria, 5(71$\%$) with glycosuria, 2(29$\%$) with phosphaturia and 2(29$\%$) with calciuria. Serum electrolytes showed 4 cases(57$\%$) with hyponatremia, 3(43$\%$) with hypokalemia, and 1(14$\%$) with creatinine elevation. Renal tubular dysfunctions were diagnosed as renal tubular acidosis in 6 cases(85$\%$), nephrogenic diabetes insipidus in 2(29$\%$), and Fanconi syndrome in 2(29$\%$). During the follow-up period, 2(29$\%$) had no treatment, 5(85$\%$) had continuous supplementation to correct the electrolyte imbalance and acidosis, and 1(14$\%$) had dialysis. Only one patient had a family history of ARE syndrome in a sibling. Four cases(57$\%$) were diagnosed at the mean age of 8.2 months, and one case was lost during follow-up. Ages of the survived 2 cases were 13 and 25 months, respectively. Conclusion : The rare disease of ARC syndrome Is associated with severe renal dysfunction. However, this study revealed that the renal manifestation of ARC syndrome in Korean children is relatively mild and survival rate is higher than that of previous studies. Contrary to previous reports, this study showed that familial cases are rare and sporadic occurence is possible in Korea. Thus, the diagnosis of this syndrome requires a careful evaluation of the venal function in cases of congenital arthrogryposis, and a mandatory genetic counseling of affected family for prevention of familial occurance. (J Korean Soc Pediatr Nephrol 2005;9:222-230)

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Changes in Serum IGF-I and Spermatogenesis Analysed by Flow Cytometry in Growing Male Rabbit (성장 중인 수토끼에서 혈청 IGF-I 수준과 Flow Cytometry 측정에 의한 정자 형성의 변화)

  • Lee J. H.;Kim C. K.;Chang Y. M.;Ryu J. W.;Park M. Y.;Chung Y. C.;Pang M. G.
    • Reproductive and Developmental Biology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.163-168
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    • 2005
  • The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and growth hormone (GH) in serum, the quantitation of spermato-genesis and the comparable relationships among these measurements during pubertal period in New Zealand White male rabbits. To investigate the age-related testicular changes in DNA contents of spermatogenic cells, the fine-needle testicular biopsies from males aged 10 to 28 wks were evaluated by flow cytometry(FCM). Body weight increased significantly between the ages of 12 and 20 wks (P<0.05) and reached 3.4 kg at 28 wks of age. The highest serum IGF-I level (451.3ng/mL) was observed at 20wks of age (P<0.05) and thereafter remained stable at low levels. Serum GH level at 18 wks of age was 183.3 pg/mL which was significantly higher compared to the other ages (P<0.05), and the rising time in serum GH tend to be somewhat earlier than that of IGF-I. The relative percentage of It-cells in testicular cell compartments was $48.2\%$ at the age of 18 wks which significantly increased than those of 16-wk-old (P<0.05) and thereafter increased with the advance of age to $68\%$. The percentage of 2C-cells in testis was $26.8\%$ at 18 wks of age which was significantly lower than $54.3\%$ at 16 wks old (P<0.05). The percentage of 4C-cells was constantly maintained $2\~6\%$ except the $9.9\%$ at 18 wks of age. In conclusion, the results suggest that the puberty onset occurred at about the 18 wks of age and that the IGF-I and GH in serum during the pubertal period showed the age/growth-specific changes and these changes might be related to the spermatogenesis. The DNA FCM combined with fine-needle testicular biopsy could offer a very sensitive method to monitor the quantitative spermatogenic events related to the puberty onset.

Airway Compression or Airway Anomaly Causing Respiratory Symptoms in Infants and Children with Cardiovascular Diseases (심혈관계 질환 환아에서 동반된 기도 압박 및 기도 기형의 임상적 특성)

  • Kim, Ja-Hyeong;Lee, So-Yeon;Kim, Hyo-Bin;Koo, So-Eun;Park, Sung-Jong;Kim, Young-Hui;Park, In-Suk;Ko, Jae-Gon;Seo, Dong-Man;Hong, Soo-Jong
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.7
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    • pp.737-744
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : Infants and children with cardiovascular diseases often present with respiratory symptoms. However, missed or delayed evaluation for potential airway problem may complicate overall prognosis. The aim of this study is to determine the clinical characteristics of these patients and explore the cause of airway problem. Methods : We reviewed the medical records of 64 patients(M : F=33:31, mean age : $6.3{\pm}7.5$ months) whose airway problems were proven by computed tomography or bronchoscopy in perioperative periods at the Asan Medical Center from January 1997 to June 2004. Patients were divided into two groups based on the duration of ventilator care : ${\leq}7$ days(group 1 : 23 cases, M : F=10 : 13) and >7 days(group 2 : 41 cases, M : F=23 : 18). Results : The patients in group 2 significantly developed more post-operative respiratory symptoms than group 1(P<0.001) and had more airway problems including extrinsic obstruction, intrinsic anomaly, and combined problem than group 1 although not significantly different(P=0.082). Among underlying diseases, the most common diseases were vascular anomaly(26.2 percent) and aortic arch anomaly(26.2 percent) in group 1 and pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect(22.4 percent) in group 2. The most frequent respiratory symptoms were recurrent wheezing pre-operatively and failure of ventilator weaning post-operatively. The major types of airway anomaly were tracheomalacia and tracheal stenosis(in each case 18.2 percent). Nineteen patients with persistent airway problems underwent aortopexy or other vascular correction. Of the 19 patients, 13(68.4 percent) were improved, but 2 failed in weaning ventilator and 4 died of non-airway problems. Conclusion : Early evaluation and treatment for potential airway problems may affect natural or surgical prognosis in patients with cardiovascular diseases presenting with respiratory symptoms.

Correlation of Basal AMH & Ovarian Response in IVF Cycles; Predictive Value of AMH (과배란유도 시 혈중 AMH와 난소 반응성과의 상관관계; 예측 인자로서의 효용성)

  • Ahn, Young-Sun;Kim, Jin-Yeong;Cho, Yun-Jin;Kim, Min-Ji;Kim, Hye-Ok;Park, Chan-Woo;Song, In-Ok;Koong, Mi-Kyoung;Kang, Inn-Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.309-317
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    • 2008
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of Anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) as a predictive marker for ovarian response and cycle outcome in IVF cycles. Methods: From Jan., to Aug., 2007, 111 patients undergoing IVF/ICSI stimulated by short or antagonist protocol were selected. On cycle day 3, basal serum AMH level and FSH level were measured. The correlation between basal serum AMH or FSH, and COH outcome was analyzed and IVF outcome was compared according to the AMH levels. To determine the threshold value of AMH for poor- and hyper-response, ROC curve was analyzed. Results: Serum AMH showed higher correlation coefficient (r=0.792, p<0.001) with the number of retrieved mature oocyte than serum FSH (r=-0.477, p<0.001). According to ovarian response, FSH and AMH leves showed significant differences among poor, normal, and hyperresponder. For predicting poor (${\leq}2$ oocytes) and hyperresponse (${\geq}17$ oocyets), AMH cut-off values were 0.5 ng/ml (the sensitivity 88.9% and the specificity 89.5%) and 2.5 ng/ml (sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 87.0%), respectively. According to the AMH level, patients were divided into 3 groups: low (${\leq}0.60\;ng/ml$), normal ($0.60{\sim}2.60\;ng/ml$), and high AMH (${\geq}2.60\;ng/ml$). The number of retrieved mature oocytes was significantly higher ($2.7{\pm}2.2$, $8.1{\pm}4.8$, $16.5{\pm}5.7$) and total gonadotropin dose was lower ($3530.5{\pm}1251.0$, $2957.1{\pm}1057.6$, and $2219.2{\pm}751.9\;IU$) in high AMH group (p<0.001). There was no significant difference in fertilization rates and pregnancy rates (23.8%, 34.0%, 37.5%) among the groups. Conclusions: Basal serum AMH level correlated better with the number of retrieved mature oocytes than FSH level, suggesting its usefulness for predicting ovarian response. However, IVF outcome was not significantly different according to the AMH levels. Serum AMH level presented good cut-off value for poor- or hyper-responders, therefore it could be useful in prediction of cycle cancellation, gonadotropin dose, and OHSS risk in IVF cycles.

Serogroup and Antimicrobial Resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae Isolated from Oropharynx in Children Attending Day Care Center (유아원 소아의 구인강에서 분리된 폐구균의 혈청군과 항균제 내성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung Hyo;Lee, Jong Eun;Whang, Il Tae;Ryu, Kyung Ha;Hong, Young Mi;Kim, Gyoung Hee;Lee, Keun;Kang, Eun-Suk;Hong, Ki-Sook
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.346-353
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Penicillin- and multidrug-resistant S. pneumoniae poses a serious threat to clinicians because the rate of resistance of S. pneumoniae to penicillin in Korea has surged up to the world's highest level. This study was performed to assess the carriage rate, serogroups and antimicrobial susceptibility of S. pneumoniae isolated from oropharynx in children. Methods : From March to July 1998, 209 children under 5 years of age were recruited from five day care centers. The carriage rate for pneumococci was obtained. Antimicrobial susceptibilities were determined with the E-test and agar dilution methods. Serogrouping was performed on 48 of the pneumococcal isolates by the Quellung reaction. Results : The carriage rate of S. pneumoniae was 30.1%. Antimicrobial susceptibility profiles were available for 59 of the isolates. Sixty-six percent of isolates were not susceptible to penicillin, and multidrug-resistance was observed in 76.3% of the isolates. A high proportion of the penicillin-resistant strains showed associated resistance to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, tetracycline, erythromycin, and oxacillin. The most prevalent oropharyngeal serogroups were 19, 6, 3, 23, and 29. Resistance of the pneumococcal isolates to penicillin was different according to the serogroups. All of the strains of serogroup 19, 23, and 29 was resistant to penicillin but 87.5% of serogroup 3 strains were susceptible to penicillin. Conclusion : The resistance rate of S. pneumoniae isolated from oropharynx in children was very high to penicillin and other antimicrobial agents. For the reduction of the drug-resistant rate of S. pneumoniae, clinicians should be required to be more judicious in their use of antimicrobial agents.

Clinical review of acute seizures among children who visited the emergency room in Masan Samsung hospital from 2004 to 2006 (최근 3년간(2004-2006년) 응급실로 내원한 소아환자 중 급성 발작으로 인한 환자들에 대한 임상적 고찰)

  • Lee, Won Deok;Yoo, Jae Wook;Lee, Ju Suk;Lee, Jun Hwa;Cho, Kyung Lae
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.420-425
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to evaluate acute childhood seizures, one of the most important causes of emergency room visits, to provide appropriate medical services. Methods : We reviewed the medical records of 433 (4.6%) pediatric patients with acute seizures that visited the emergency room at Masan Samsung hospital from 2004 to 2006. Results : The male to female ratio was 1.4:1 and the mean age was $40.9{\pm}34.9$ months range. The order of geographical distribution was Masan, Changwon, Haman, and others. Fever was present in 40.6% of patients; December (14.8%) was the most frequent month for visits and generalized tonic clonic seizures (62.7%) were the most common type of seizure. The average frequency and duration of the seizure was $1.5{\pm}1.0$ and $6.7{\pm}13.2$ minutes respectively. Febrile seizures were present in 69.7% of patients and afebrile seizures in 30.3%. The causes of the febrile seizures were acute pharyngotonsillitis (44.6%), acute bronchitis, gastroenteritis, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, and unknown origin, in order of frequency. The most common cause of an afebrile seizure was epilepsy (71.5%) followed by a benign convulsion with mild gastroenteritis (BCwMG), sequela of a perinatal brain injury or brain malformation, and acute CNS infection. Evaluation of the causes of an acute seizure according to age showed that febrile seizures, epilepsy, and the sequela of perinatal brain injuries were more common between 2 and 6 years of age and epilepsy, febrile seizures and acute CNS infection, in order of frequency, were common between 6 and 15 years of age. Many patients, 49.4%, were discharged without admission. Conclusion : The common characteristics of pediatric patients presenting to the emergency room were male gender, an age between 2-6 years, presenting during the month of December, with generalized tonic clonic seizures due to acute pharyngitis. The most common presentation for the group less than 6 years of age was a febrile seizure and in the group more than 6 years of age, it was epilepsy. In many cases, the seizures stopped by the time the family presented to the emergency room.

Usefulness of Non-coplanar Helical Tomotherapy Using Variable Axis Baseplate (Variable Axis Baseplate를 이용한 Non-coplanar 토모테라피의 유용성)

  • Ha, Jin-Sook;Chung, Yoon-Sun;Lee, Ik-Jae;Shin, Dong-Bong;Kim, Jong-Dae;Kim, Sei-Joon;Jeon, Mi-Jin;Cho, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Ki-Kwang;Lee, Seul-Bee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Helical Tomotherapy allows only coplanar beam delivery because it does not allow couch rotation. We investigated a method to introduce non-coplanar beam by tilting a patient's head for Tomotherapy. The aim of this study was to compare intrafractional movement during Tomotherapy between coplanar and non-coplanar patient's setup. Materials and Methods: Helical Tomotherapy was used for treating eight patients with intracranial tumor. The subjects were divided into three groups: one group (coplanar) of 2 patients who lay on S-plate with supine position and wore thermoplastic mask for immobilizing the head, second group (non-coplanar) of 3 patients who lay on S-plate with supine position and whose head was tilted with Variable Axis Baseplate and wore thermoplastic mask, and third group (non-coplanar plus mouthpiece) of 3 patients whose head was tilted and wore a mouthpiece immobilization device and thermoplastic mask. The patients were treated with Tomotherapy after treatment planning with Tomotherapy Planning System. Megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) was performed before and after treatment, and the intrafractional error was measured with lateral(X), longitudinal(Y), vertical(Z) direction movements and vector ($\sqrt{x^2+y^2+z^2}$) value for assessing overall movement. Results: Intrafractional error was compared among three groups by taking the error of MVCT taken after the treatment. As the correction values (X, Y, Z) between MVCT image taken after treatment and CT-simulation image are close to zero, the patient movement is small. When the mean values of movement of each direction for non-coplanar setup were compared with coplanar setup group, X-axis movement was decreased by 13%, but Y-axis and Z-axis movement were increased by 109% and 88%, respectively. Movements of Y-axis and Z-axis with non-coplanar setup were relatively greater than that of X-axis since a tilted head tended to slip down. The mean of X-axis movement of the group who used a mouthpiece was greater by 9.4% than the group who did not use, but the mean of Y-axis movement was lower by at least 64%, and the mean of Z-axis was lower by at least 67%, and the mean of Z-axis was lower by at least 67%, and the vector was lower by at least 59% with the use of a mouthpiece. Among these 8 patients, one patient whose tumor was located on left frontal lobe and left basal ganglia received reduced radiation dose of 38% in right eye, 23% in left eye, 30% in optic chiasm, 27% in brain stem, and 8% in normal brain with non-coplanar method. Conclusion: Tomotherapy only allows coplanar delivery of IMRT treatment. To complement this shortcoming, Tomotherapy can be used with non-coplanar method by artificially tilting the patient's head and using an oral immobilization instrument to minimize the movement of patient, when intracranial tumor locates near critical organs or has to be treated with high dose radiation.

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The Impact of Conflict and Influence Strategies Between Local Korean-Products-Selling Retailers and Wholesalers on Performance in Chinese Electronics Distribution Channels: On Moderating Effects of Relational Quality (중국 가전유통경로에서 한국제품 현지 판매업체와 도매업체간 갈등 및 영향전략이 성과에 미치는 영향: 관계 질의 조절효과)

  • Chun, Dal-Young;Kwon, Joo-Hyung;Lee, Guo-Ming
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2011
  • I. Introduction: In Chinese electronics industry, the local wholesalers are still dominant but power is rapidly swifting from wholesalers to retailers because in recent foreign big retailers and local mass merchandisers are growing fast. During such transient period, conflicts among channel members emerge important issues. For example, when wholesalers who have more power exercise influence strategies to maintain status, conflicts among manufacturer, wholesaler, and retailer will be intensified. Korean electronics companies in China need differentiated channel strategies by dealing with wholesalers and retailers simultaneously to sell more Korean products in competition with foreign firms. For example, Korean electronics firms should utilize 'guanxi' or relational quality to form long-term relationships with whloesalers instead of power and conflict issues. The major purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of conflict, dependency, and influence strategies between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers on performance in Chinese electronics distribution channels. In particular, this paper proposes effective distribution strategies for Korean electronics companies in China by analyzing moderating effects of 'Guanxi'. II. Literature Review and Hypotheses: The specific purposes of this study are as follows. First, causes of conflicts between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers are examined from the perspectives of goal incongruence and role ambiguity and then effects of these causes are found out on perceived conflicts of local retailers. Second, the effects of dependency of local retailers upon wholesalers are investigated on local retailers' perceived conflicts. Third, the effects of non-coercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation and coercive strategies such as threats and legalistic pleas exercised by wholesalers are explored on perceived conflicts by local retailers. Fourth, the effects of level of conflicts perceived by local retailers are verified on local retailers' financial performance and satisfaction. Fifth, moderating effects of relational qualities, say, 'quanxi' between wholesalers and retailers are analyzed on the impact of wholesalers' influence strategies on retailers' performances. Finally, moderating effects of relational qualities are examined on the relationship between conflicts and performance. To accomplish above-mentioned research objectives, Figure 1 and the following research hypotheses are proposed and verified. III. Measurement and Data Analysis: To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 97 retailers who are selling Korean electronic products located around Central and Southern regions in China. Covariance analysis and moderated regression analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. IV. Conclusion: The following results were drawn using structural equation modeling and hierarchical moderated regression. First, goal incongruence perceived by local retailers significantly affected conflict but role ambiguity did not. Second, consistent with conflict spiral theory, the level of conflict decreased when retailers' dependency increased toward wholesalers. Third, noncoercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation implemented by wholesalers had significant effects on retailers' performance such as sales and satisfaction without conflict. On the other hand, coercive influence strategies such as threat and legalistic plea had insignificant effects on performance in spite of increasing the level of conflict. Fourth, 'guanxi', namely, relational quality between local retailers and wholesalers showed unique effects on performance. In case of noncoercive influence strategies, 'guanxi' did not play a role of moderator. Rather, relational quality and noncoercive influence strategies can serve as independent variables to enhance performance. On the other hand, when 'guanxi' was well built due to mutual trust and commitment, relational quality as a moderator can positively function to improve performance even though hostile, coercive influence strategies were implemented. Fifth, 'guanxi' significantly moderated the effects of conflict on performance. Even if conflict arises, local retailers who form solid relational quality can increase performance by dealing with dysfunctional conflict synergistically compared with low 'quanxi' retailers. In conclusion, this study verified the importance of relational quality via 'quanxi' between local retailers and wholesalers in Chinese electronic industry because relational quality could cross out the adverse effects of coercive influence strategies and conflict on performance.

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A Study of 'Emotion Trigger' by Text Mining Techniques (텍스트 마이닝을 이용한 감정 유발 요인 'Emotion Trigger'에 관한 연구)

  • An, Juyoung;Bae, Junghwan;Han, Namgi;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.69-92
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    • 2015
  • The explosion of social media data has led to apply text-mining techniques to analyze big social media data in a more rigorous manner. Even if social media text analysis algorithms were improved, previous approaches to social media text analysis have some limitations. In the field of sentiment analysis of social media written in Korean, there are two typical approaches. One is the linguistic approach using machine learning, which is the most common approach. Some studies have been conducted by adding grammatical factors to feature sets for training classification model. The other approach adopts the semantic analysis method to sentiment analysis, but this approach is mainly applied to English texts. To overcome these limitations, this study applies the Word2Vec algorithm which is an extension of the neural network algorithms to deal with more extensive semantic features that were underestimated in existing sentiment analysis. The result from adopting the Word2Vec algorithm is compared to the result from co-occurrence analysis to identify the difference between two approaches. The results show that the distribution related word extracted by Word2Vec algorithm in that the words represent some emotion about the keyword used are three times more than extracted by co-occurrence analysis. The reason of the difference between two results comes from Word2Vec's semantic features vectorization. Therefore, it is possible to say that Word2Vec algorithm is able to catch the hidden related words which have not been found in traditional analysis. In addition, Part Of Speech (POS) tagging for Korean is used to detect adjective as "emotional word" in Korean. In addition, the emotion words extracted from the text are converted into word vector by the Word2Vec algorithm to find related words. Among these related words, noun words are selected because each word of them would have causal relationship with "emotional word" in the sentence. The process of extracting these trigger factor of emotional word is named "Emotion Trigger" in this study. As a case study, the datasets used in the study are collected by searching using three keywords: professor, prosecutor, and doctor in that these keywords contain rich public emotion and opinion. Advanced data collecting was conducted to select secondary keywords for data gathering. The secondary keywords for each keyword used to gather the data to be used in actual analysis are followed: Professor (sexual assault, misappropriation of research money, recruitment irregularities, polifessor), Doctor (Shin hae-chul sky hospital, drinking and plastic surgery, rebate) Prosecutor (lewd behavior, sponsor). The size of the text data is about to 100,000(Professor: 25720, Doctor: 35110, Prosecutor: 43225) and the data are gathered from news, blog, and twitter to reflect various level of public emotion into text data analysis. As a visualization method, Gephi (http://gephi.github.io) was used and every program used in text processing and analysis are java coding. The contributions of this study are as follows: First, different approaches for sentiment analysis are integrated to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Secondly, finding Emotion Trigger can detect the hidden connections to public emotion which existing method cannot detect. Finally, the approach used in this study could be generalized regardless of types of text data. The limitation of this study is that it is hard to say the word extracted by Emotion Trigger processing has significantly causal relationship with emotional word in a sentence. The future study will be conducted to clarify the causal relationship between emotional words and the words extracted by Emotion Trigger by comparing with the relationships manually tagged. Furthermore, the text data used in Emotion Trigger are twitter, so the data have a number of distinct features which we did not deal with in this study. These features will be considered in further study.

Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.