• Title/Summary/Keyword: 대설 재난

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Prediction of damages induced by Snow using Multiple-linear regression and Artificial Neural Network model (다중선형회귀 및 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 대설피해에 따른 피해액 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Soon Ho;Lee, Eui Hoon;Chung, Gunhui;Kim, Joong Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.20-20
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    • 2017
  • 최근 기후변화 영향에 따라 전 세계적으로 인명피해 및 재산피해를 유발하는 자연재난이 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 그로 인한 자연재해의 규모가 점점 더 커지고 있다. 실제로 우리나라에서도 지난 1994 년에서 2013 년까지 지난 20 년간 자연재해에 의한 피해액은 12조 3천억 원으로 집계되었으며, 이 중 강우와 태풍에 의한 피해가 85 % 이고, 대설에 의한 피해는 약 13 % 로 자연재해 중 대부분의 피해는 강우 및 태풍에서 발생하지만, 폭설에 의한 피해도 적지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이에 따라, 정확한 예측을 위해 신뢰도 높은 자료 구축을 통한 대설피해 예측에 관한 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구에서는 대설피해액 예측을 위해 우리나라의 63개 기상 관측소에서 관측한 적설심 자료 및 기상관측 자료와 사회 경제 자료 총 11개를 대설피해 예측을 위한 입력변수로 선정하고, 이를 기상관측소가 속한 도시의 면적에 따라 3개의 지역으로 구분하였다. 주성분분석을 활용하여 선정된 입력변수들을 4개의 주성분으로 구분하고, 인공신경망 및 다중선형 회귀 모형을 구성하여 각 지역별 대설피해 예측의 오차를 분석하였다. 적용결과, 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 대설피해 예측의 수정결정계수는 22.8 %~48.2 %를 나타냈고, 다중선형회귀 모형의 수정결정 계수는 9.2 %~39.7% 로 나타났다. 그러므로 인공신경망 모형이 다중회귀 모형보다 선택된 입력자료를 활용하여 대설피해를 예측하는 목적으로 조금 더 우수한 결과를 나타내었다. 향후 자료를 보완 및 모형의 고도화를 통해 보다 정확한 대설피해 예측 함수 개발이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

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An Analysis of Potential Danger Factors by the Characteristics of Heavy Snow - Focused 11 Cities and Guns in Chungcheongbuk-do - (대설특성을 통한 잠재적 위험도 분석 - 충청북도 11개 시·군을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Sanghoon;Park, Keunoh;Kim, Geunyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2015
  • This Study analyzed heavy snow properties according to the area that was based by winter weather properties and the damage data by the heavy snow among each local government of Chungcheongbuk-do. The result of analysis, Jecheon-si and Boeun-gun are represented the highest dangerous regions by potential degree of risk by average amount of snowfall for 35 years. But, the potential degree of risk by maximum amount of snowfall for 35 years is different with it. Cheongju-si and Youngdong-gun, Goesan-gun, Boeun-gun are represented the highest dangerous regions. Examining the frequency of regions with potential danger factors according to the characteristics of heavy snowfall, Boeun-gun and Jecheon-si, Goesan-gun, Youngdong-gun, Cheongju-si is derived the highest dangerous regions in Chungcheongbuk-do.

Regional snows scenario for the support systems Analysis (지역별 제설 시나리오 응원체계 구축연구)

  • Kim, Heejae;Oak, Youngsuk;Kim, Geunyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2017
  • Because of abnormal weather, a heavy snow on the Northern latitudes occurs frequently. This has resulted in significant damage and recovery costs. In korea, it has been declared a special disaster area due to heavy snowfall in Gangneung and Pohang 2004, 2005 and 2011, so there was a revision of action instruction for the road snow removal. Although, in our current system, snow removing methodology, regional equipment holdings, and snow responsible interval, respectively, has been classified by the National Highway, near cities and provinces support system not yet prepared. Only, if snow removing is not possible within the region itself, which contained the contents of "support and assistance to military or nearby offices requests". In this thesis, we studied the disaster scenario development according to heavy snow and the response and support system to the features of each regional. For the scenario deduction, we preferentially collected day snowfall and disaster yearbook data to regionals, classified similar pattern and plotted GIS snow map. We also classified heavy snow disaster by region and type and we deduced five-step scenario. The five-step scenario is nationwide(1st-stage), the National Capital region(2nd-stage), the Chungcheong Provinces(3rd-stage), the Kangwon province(4th-stage) and the Ch?l a provinces(5th-stage). Therefore we build near provinces support system according to five-step scenario.

Estimating Equipment and vehicle Demands for Snow Removal Tasks by Road Snow Removal Scenarios (도로 제설 시나리오별 소요 제설장비 및 차량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Heejae;Kim, Sunyoung;Kim, Geunyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.199-212
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    • 2017
  • Rapid roadway snow removal is significantly important due to difficult occurrence estimation of heavy snowfall disasters by global warming and climate change. Local governments of S. Korea have snow removal equipments and vehicles based on past experiences without considering snowfall and roadway characteristics. The objective of this research is to develop the demand estimation procedure for snow removal equipments and vehicles based on regional snowfall and roadway characteristics. This research first classifies regional snowfall characteristics using KMO's ten-year snowfall data. Second, roadway snow removal length is computed for local governments. Real possession data is compared with demand estimation of snow removal equipments & vehicles for each local government with roadway snow removal scenarios. Finally, required demands of snow removal equipments & vehicles are predicted by concerning regional snowfall amount and required snow removal hours. Results from this research are used for developing heavy snowfall disaster management policies for optimal demands and snow removal routes of 229 local governments.

A Study on the System Improvement for Efficient Management of Large-scale Complex Disaster (대형복합재난의 효율적 관리를 위한 제도개선방안 연구)

  • Kim, Taehoon;Youn, Junhee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.176-183
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    • 2018
  • Climate change, rapid urbanization, and population concentration have led to a higher frequency and magnitude of disasters in the world. Recently, the occurrence of large-scale complex disasters, which are caused by a combination of natural disasters, man-made disasters, and social disasters, is increasing. In Korea, there are many case studies of damage prediction and response technology development for individual natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and typhoons. On the other hand, the system basis for the efficient response and management of large-scale complex disasters is insufficient. Therefore, this study examined the representative cases of natural, social disasters, and related cases of domestic disaster response management systems. In addition, this paper proposes ways to improve the legal system for complex disaster management policies and establish a cooperation system between the ministries for an efficient response.

Preliminary design for satellite image situation board linkage and display system (위성영상 상황판연계·표출시스템 예비설계)

  • Sang Min Lee;Eun Jeong Kim;Mi Rae Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.458-458
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    • 2023
  • 본 연구에서는 위성영상 활용 지능형 재난관측·감시 기술 개발을 목적으로 위성영상과 멀티소스(CCTV, 항공영상, 공공DB 등)와의 연계·융합을 통해 재난상황관리의 정확도 향상과 위성영상 활용성 제고 방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 위성영상 수집·배포시스템으로부터 전달되는 위성영상과 멀티소스의 연계 융합을 통한 재난상황정보의 표출을 목적으로 상황판연계 표출시스템 가동 절차와 위성영상 수집을 통한 위험탐지 알고리즘과의 연계를 위해 재난상황업무 기반 시스템 가동절차를 수립하고, 위기관리표준 매뉴얼 상 상황업무절차를 적용해 예비설계를 진행하였다. 상황실 실무자 설문을 통해 작성된 시스템 요구사항과 규격서를 기반으로 상황업무절차를 적용해 먼저업무시스템 설계를 진행하였다. 평시에는 GIS통합상황판에서 관리됨을 전제로 위성영상 수집에 대한국가적 예산 투입 측면을 고려해 중대본 설치가 필요한 대형재난 발생상황을 가정하여 상황판연계·표출시스템의 가동되도록 설계하였다. 또한, 위성영상 분석을 통한 피해위험도와 재난이력통계 등 멀티소스와 중첩한 결과를 실시간으로 표출함에 따라 상황실근무자는 재난확산 여부를 판단하고, NDMS를 통해 재난상황을 전파할 수 있도록 설계하였다. 상황판연계 표출시스템의 원활한 데이터 입/출력을 위해 재난유형 및 분석단계별 클래스 정의, 유스케이스 ID(요구기능)와 1:1 또는 1:n매칭을 수행하여 재난유형 및 분석단계별 클래스를 정의하였다. 정의된 클래스는 유스케이스인 요구기능과 매칭을 수행하였고, 시스템 가동절차 중 피해위험도분석, 재난이력통계, 중첩결과표출, NDMS 상황전파에 대한 상황업무절차를 기반으로 산불·홍수·산사태·대설·태풍 총 5종의재난별 시퀀스를 설계하였다. 마지막으로 화면정의서와 UI/UX설계서를 기반으로 Figma를 통해 시스템구동화면을 사전에 모의하였다. 향후, 진행되는 연구에서는 위성영상과 멀티소스를 연계한 화면을 실체화하여 더욱 정확한 재난상황관리가 가능하도록 NDMS 연계 상황판 표출 시스템을 개발하고자 한다.

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A Case Analysis Study on the Development of Snow Removal Equipment Using Smart Mobility (스마트 모빌리티를 적용한 제설장비 개발을 위한 사례분석 연구)

  • Heejae Kim;Geunyoung Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find cases of using information and communication technology and smart mobility technology in snow removal vehicles and equipment for rapid and efficient road snow removal in the event of a snowstorm, and to find ways to utilize them. Method: Cases of domestic and overseas snow removal methods are investigated, and snow removal operation methods incorporating new technologies are presented. Result: Most of the operation of snow removal equipment in Korea uses GPS, CCTV, and road traffic information systems, and in the case of overseas, road weather information systems and road snow removal monitoring systems are used. It is expected that snow removal technology using autonomous snow removal vehicles, which are smart mobility, will be developed in the future. Conclusion: The results of this study can contribute to the policy of using snow removal equipment and snow removal vehicles of local governments and related organizations.

Economic Loss Assessment caused by Heavy Snowfall - Using Traffic Demand Model and Inoperability I-O Model (대설의 경제적 피해 - 교통수요모형과 불능투입산출모형의 적용)

  • Moon, Seung-Woon;Kim, Euijune
    • Journal of Korea Planning Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2018
  • Heavy snow is a natural disaster that causes serious economic damage. Since snowfall has been increasing recently, there is a need for measures against heavy snowfall. In order to make a policy decision on heavy snowfall, it is necessary to estimate the precise amount of damage by heavy snowfall. The direct damage of the heavy snow is severe, however the indirect damage caused by the road congestion and the urban dysfunction is also serious. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate indirect damage of snowfall. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects on the regional economy from the limitation in traffic logistics caused by heavy snow using the transport demand model and inoperability input-output Model. The result shows that the amount of production loss caused by the heavy snow is KRW 2,460 billion per year and if the period of snowfall removal is shortened by one day or two days, it could be reduced to KRW 1,219 or 2,787 billion in production loss.