국토계획 (Journal of Korea Planning Association)

  • 제53권6호
  • /
  • Pages.117-130
  • /
  • 2018
  • /
  • 1226-7147(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2383-9171(eISSN)
대한국토도시계획학회 (Korea Planning Association)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

대설의 경제적 피해 - 교통수요모형과 불능투입산출모형의 적용

Economic Loss Assessment caused by Heavy Snowfall - Using Traffic Demand Model and Inoperability I-O Model

  • 심사 : 2018.11.06
  • 발행 : 2018.11.30
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

Heavy snow is a natural disaster that causes serious economic damage. Since snowfall has been increasing recently, there is a need for measures against heavy snowfall. In order to make a policy decision on heavy snowfall, it is necessary to estimate the precise amount of damage by heavy snowfall. The direct damage of the heavy snow is severe, however the indirect damage caused by the road congestion and the urban dysfunction is also serious. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate indirect damage of snowfall. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects on the regional economy from the limitation in traffic logistics caused by heavy snow using the transport demand model and inoperability input-output Model. The result shows that the amount of production loss caused by the heavy snow is KRW 2,460 billion per year and if the period of snowfall removal is shortened by one day or two days, it could be reduced to KRW 1,219 or 2,787 billion in production loss.

키워드

과제정보

연구 과제 주관 기관 : 한국연구재단

참고문헌

  1. Kwon, Soonho and Chung, Gunhui, 2017. "Estimation of Snow Damages using Multiple Regression Model-The Case of Gangwon Province", Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 37(1): 61-72. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2017.37.1.0061
  2. KMA, 2014. The 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Seoul.
  3. Kim, Geunyoung, Joo, Hyuntae and Kim, Heejae, 2018. "The Study for Damage Effect Factors of Heavy Snowfall Disasters : Focused on Heavy Snowfall Disasters during the Period of 2005 to 2014", Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, 19(2): 125-136.
  4. Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "Strategies and Implications for Japan's Snowfall Zone", Planning and Policy, 380: 104-110.
  5. Kim, Hyunwook, Jung, Jonghyuk, Sim, Jaegwan, Choi, Byungchul, Kim, Huiwon and Hwang, Sanghui, 2015. "Analysis of the damage characteristics of heavy snow by region in Korea for the last 31 years", Korean Meteorological Society Conference Proceedings, 개최지: 개최장소명.
  6. Rho, Jeonghyun, 2013. Transportation Planning-Travel Demand Theory and Models, Paju: Nanam.
  7. Park, Guenoh and Kim, Guenyoung, 2011. "Damage characteristics and cases of heavy snow in Korea", The Magazine of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 11(4): 64-75.
  8. Baek, Seungkirl, Jeong, Soyoung, Lee, Teakyung and Won, Jai-Mu, 2010. "Analysis of Snowing Impacts on Freeway Trip Characteristics Using TCS Data", The Journal of Korean Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems, 9(4): 68-79.
  9. Seol, Jaehoon, 2010. "[Theme 1] Necessity and Challenges of Traffic Disaster and Vulnerability Research", Monthly KOTI Magazine on Transport, (2010, 12): 6-12.
  10. Son, Youngtae, Lee, Sanghwa and Im, Jihee, 2013. "A Study on Highway Capacity Variation According to Snowfall Intensity", Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, 31(6): 3-11. https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2013.31.6.003
  11. Sohn, Chul, Kim, Geonhu and Kim, Kibyung, 2014. "Changes in Inbound Traffic Volume of a Heavy Snowfall Impacted Area - A Case Study on the Heavy Snowfall Event of the Youngdong Region in 2011", Journal of climate research, 9(4): 331-343. https://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2014.9.4.331
  12. Ahn, Sora, Lee, Junwoo and Kim, Seongjoon. 2015. "Projection of Future Snowfall and Assessment of Heavy Snowfall Vulnerable Area Using RCP Climate Change Scenarios", Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 35(3): 545-556. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2015.35.3.0545
  13. Yoon, Daesik, 2001. Traffic Demand Analysis: Theory and Model, Seoul: Pakyoungsa.
  14. KMA, 2017. Disaster Yearbook 2016, Seoul.
  15. KMA, 2018. 2017 Abnormal weather report, Seoul.
  16. Im, Yongtaek, Baek, Seunggul, Um, Jingi, Kim, Hyungmyung, Lee, Jun and Park, Jungyung, 2013. Transportation Planning, Seoul: Chungmungak.
  17. Jeong, Junho and Lee, Seungho, 2014. "Estimating the Direct Economic Damages from Heavy Snowfall in Korea", Journal of climate research, 9(2): 125-139. https://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2014.9.2.125
  18. Bank of Korea, 2014, Input-Output Analysis, Seoul.
  19. Han, Wooseok, 2011. "Trend and Direction of Heavy Snowfall", Planning and Policy, 355: 39-47.
  20. HRI, 2014. Snow and Economy- Economic Damage and Implications of Snowfall, Seoul.
  21. Kanafani, Adib, 1983. Transportation demand analysis, OH: McGraw-Hill.
  22. . Datla, S. and Sharma, S., 2008. "Impact of cold and snow on temporal and spatial variations of highway traffic volumes", Journal of Transport Geography, 16(5): 358-372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.12.003
  23. Gordon, P., Richardson, H., and Davis, B., 1998. "Transport-related impacts of the northridge earthquake", Journal of Transportation and Statistics, 1: 21-36.
  24. Haimes, Yacov Y. and Pu Jiang, 2001. "Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures", Journal of Infrastructure systems, 7(1): 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2001)7:1(1)
  25. Hanbali, R. M. and Kuemmel, D. A., 1993. "Traffic volume reductions due to winter storm conditions, Transportation Research Record", Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1387: 159-164.
  26. Hassan, Y. and Derek J. Barker, 1999. "The impact of unseasonable or extreme weather on traffic activity within Lothian region, Scotland", Journal of Transport Geography, 7(3): 209-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0966-6923(98)00047-7
  27. IPCC, 2015. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, New York.: Cambridge University Press.
  28. Knapp, K. K. and Smithson, L. D., 2000. "Winter storm event volume impact analysis using multiplesource archived monitoring data, Transportation Research Record", Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1700: 10-16. https://doi.org/10.3141/1700-03
  29. Maze, T. H., Agarwal, M. and Burchett, G., 2006. "Whether weather matters to traffic demand, traffic safety, and traffic operations and flow, Transportation Research Record", Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1948: 170-176. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198106194800119
  30. Tsuchiya, Satoshi, Tatano, Hirokazu and Okada, Norio, 2007. "Economic loss assessment due to railroad and highway disruptions", Economic Systems Research, 19(2): 147-162 https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310701328567