• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.37 no.2
• /
• pp.73-89
• /
• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.29-40
• /
• 2019

Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.30 no.1
• /
• pp.32-42
• /
• 2024

In this study, 1,474 effective patents were derived for quantitative analysis of five major countries, including Korea, China, Japan, the United States and Europe, for marine space policy simulator technology used as a support for integrated marine space management means, and domestic technology competitiveness and domestic and foreign technology trends were identified through annual and national patent application trends and word cloud analysis. This diagnosed the need for active policy support for research and development of marine space policy simulator technology at the government level and preparation through linkage strategies such as patent application consideration and standardization preoccupation for surrounding technologies to prepare for China-led market monopoly and preoccupation.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
• /
• v.39 no.3
• /
• pp.457-464
• /
• 2019

This study aims to explore meta-modeling knowledge of gifted students through the modeling. To do this, five gifted students were asked to do modeling related to candle burning, and all the processes of modeling were observed and then individual interviews were conducted. As a result of the study, two students were classified as first level and three students were classified as second level. The students of the first level did not have any model generation or model-based prediction activities, and observation was the most meaningful activity. On the other hand, the students of the second level performed all four modeling processes. However, the generation of the model and the prediction using the model were relatively strong. The data they gained from the experiments was perceived as just confirming the absolute model. No student was found in Level 3 or Level 4. The results of this study show that gifted students remain at the progression level of recognizing the model as an objective reality, and in order to cultivate a true scientist, it is necessary to educate the gifted students to recognize the subjectivity of the model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.29 no.7
• /
• pp.802-811
• /
• 2023

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.