• Title/Summary/Keyword: 대선 결과 예측

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An Analysis of the 2017 Korean Presidential Election Using Text Mining (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 2017년 한국 대선 분석)

  • An, Eunhee;An, Jungkook
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2020
  • Recently, big data analysis has drawn attention in various fields as it can generate value from large amounts of data and is also used to run political campaigns or predict results. However, existing research had limitations in compiling information about candidates at a high-level by analyzing only specific SNS data. Therefore, this study analyses news trends, topics extraction, sentiment analysis, keyword analysis, comment analysis for the 2017 presidential election of South Korea. The results show that various topics had been generated, and online opinions are extracted for trending keywords of respective candidates. This study also shows that portal news and comments can serve as useful tools for predicting the public's opinion on social issues. This study will This paper advances a building strategic course of action by providing a method of analyzing public opinion across various fields.

A Study on Predicting Presidential Election Results by Analyzing Twitter Message Contents: A Focus on the 18th Presidential Election in Korea (트위터 메시지 분석을 통한 선거 결과 예측 고찰: 18대 대선을 중심으로)

  • Lee, SeoYoung;Kwon, SangJib
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.174-186
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    • 2019
  • Twitter is very popluar with users who desire social interaction as it is a highly effective method of communicating compared to traditional communication platforms; and thus has garnered considerable interest from the academic community. This research reveals how election results can be predicted by the factors of total volume of messages, positive messages and negative messages tweeted about a candidate. Social matrix analysis revealed that the quantity of twitter messages was a strong predictor of election results in the 18th presidential election in Korea. In addition, more positive messages than negative messages about a candidate from twitter users recorded better results in the election. This research found that the total quantity of messages, positive messages, and negative messages as key factors for predicting election result. Future studies should investigate other SNS platforms to discover what is the most effective communication strategy on each platform.

Analysis of the Influence of Presidential Candidate's SNS Reputation on Election Result: focusing on 19th Presidential Election (대선후보의 SNS 평판이 선거결과에 미치는 영향 분석 - 19대 대선을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Ye Na;Choi, Eun Jung;Kim, Myuhng Joo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.195-201
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    • 2018
  • Smartphones and PCs have become essential components of our daily life. People are expressing their opinions freely in SNS by using these devices. We are able to predict public opinions on specific subject by analyzing the related big data in SNS. In this paper, we have collected opinion data in SNS and analyzed reputation by text mining in order to make a prediction for the will of the people before 19th presidential election in South Korea. The result shows that our method makes more accurate estimate than other election polls.

Analysis of public opinion in the 20th presidential election using YouTube data (유튜브 데이터를 활용한 20대 대선 여론분석)

  • Kang, Eunkyung;Yang, Seonuk;Kwon, Jiyoon;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.161-183
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    • 2022
  • Opinion polls have become a powerful means for election campaigns and one of the most important subjects in the media in that they predict the actual election results and influence people's voting behavior. However, the more active the polls, the more often they fail to properly reflect the voters' minds in measuring the effectiveness of election campaigns, such as repeatedly conducting polls on the likelihood of winning or support rather than verifying the pledges and policies of candidates. Even if the poor predictions of the election results of the polls have undermined the authority of the press, people cannot easily let go of their interest in polls because there is no clear alternative to answer the instinctive question of which candidate will ultimately win. In this regard, we attempt to retrospectively grasp public opinion on the 20th presidential election by applying the 'YouTube Analysis' function of Sometrend, which provides an environment for discovering insights through online big data. Through this study, it is confirmed that a result close to the actual public opinion (or opinion poll results) can be easily derived with simple YouTube data results, and a high-performance public opinion prediction model can be built.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

3D Propagation Prediction Model for Indoor Environment (실내 환경에서의 3차원 전파예측 모델)

  • 고욱희
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, we present an indoor propagation prediction model which is based on a three-dimensional ray-tracing technique. In this model, instead of considering all obstacles such as furnitures and fixtures, etc., only main obstacles to the propagation such as walls, ceiling and floors are modeled as slabs with finite thickness and conductivity, and the significant phenomena of propagation are considered, so we can calculate simply and predict accurately the propagation losses. The propagating rays are considered to be reflected and transmitted specularly at the boundaries of obstacles, and diffracted at edges. The reflection and transmission losses on flat obstacles are calculated by using ray tracing method, and the diffraction losses at edges are calculated by using the uniform theory of diffraction (UTD) for finite conductivity media. The results simulated for some cases by this propagation model good agree with the measured value of pathloss.

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System Implementation of Winner Forecasting for Election Cadidates Utilizing SNS Emotion Analysis (SNS 감정 분석을 이용한 선거 후보자 순위 예측 시스템)

  • Moon, Yoo-Jin;Lee, Hansoo;Park, Hyuk;Lee, Jaeyoung;Kim, Sunguk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2017.01a
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    • pp.273-274
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    • 2017
  • 대한민국 20대 총선, 영국의 유럽연합 탈퇴인 브렉시트, 트럼프와 힐러리의 대결인 미국 대선, 이 셋의 공통점은 언론의 예측과 다른 투표 결과가 나왔다는 점이다. 이러한 일련의 사건들로 인해, 각종 언론사에서 실시하고 있는 표본조사의 신뢰도에 대한 근본적 재검토의 필요성이 제기되고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 선거 후보자 지지율을 효율적이며 효과적으로 분석하기 위하여 SNS 감정분석을 제안한다. SNS 감정분석은 기존의 표본을 구하고 분석하는 방식보다 더 빠르게 표본 수집 및 분석이 가능하다. 또한 R프로그램과 구글을 이용하여 처리하기 때문에 기존 방식에 비하여 매우 저렴하다. 현재 언론사의 예측이 빗나가고 있는 시점에서 SNS 감정분석이 훌륭한 대안이 될 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구에서의 트래픽*감정분석 점수를 보았을 때, SNS 감정분석이 여론을 더 정확히 반영한다는 것을 증명한다.

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Propensity Score Weighting Adjustment for Internet Surveys for Korean Presidential Election (인터넷 선거여론조사 가중치보정을 위한 성향점수의 활용)

  • Kim, Young-Won;Be, Ye-Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 2010
  • Propensity score adjustment(PSA) has been suggested as approach to adjustment for volunteer internet survey. PSA attempts to decrease the biases arising from noncoverage and nonprobability sampling in volunteer panel internet surveys. Although PSA is an appealing method, its application for internet survey regarding Korea presidential election and its effectiveness is not well investigated. In this study, we compare the Ni Korea internet survey with the telephone survey conducted by MBMR and KBS for 2007 Korean presidential election. The result of study show that the accuracy of internet survey can be improved by using PSA. And it is critical to include covariates that highly related to the voting tendency and the role of nondemographic variables seems important to improving PSA for Korea presidential election prediction.

Causal study on the effect of survey methods in the 19th presidential election telephone survey (19대 대선 전화조사에서 조사방법 효과에 대한 인과연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Jung, Hyojae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.943-955
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    • 2017
  • We investigate and estimate the causal effect of the survey methods in telephone surveys for the 19th presidential election. For this causal study, we draw a causal graph that represents the causal relationship between variables. Then we decide which variables should be included in the model and which variables should not be. We explain why the research agency is a should-be variable and the response rate is a shouldnot-be variable. The effect of ARS can not be estimated due to data limitations. We have found that there is no significant difference in the effect of the proportion of cell phone survey if it is less than about 90 percent. But the support rate for Moon Jae-in gets higher if the survey is performed only by cell phones.

An Analysis of the Correlation Between Politicians Approval Rating and the Amount of Internet News Articles (정치인의 지지율과 인터넷 뉴스 기사량의 상관관계 분석)

  • Lee, Pil-Su;Lee, Yun-Jung;Woo, Gyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2012.11a
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    • pp.1770-1772
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    • 2012
  • 현재 인터넷 공간은 사람들의 관심사나 사회적인 이슈들을 반영하고 있다. 사회적으로 어떤 사건이 발생하면 그 사건에 관한 뉴스 기사나 관련된 다양한 콘텐츠들이 생성되어 여러 사람들에게 소비되고 공유된다. 뿐만 아니라 이와는 반대로 인터넷 공간에서 사람들에게 많은 관심을 받거나 이슈가 된 사건이 사회적인 관심거리가 되기도 한다. 최근에는 인터넷 공간에서 발생하는 정보 검색이나 콘텐츠 생성 패턴을 분석하여 실제 사회에서의 이슈나 트렌드를 예측하려는 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 이 논문에서는 인터넷을 기반으로 분석한 자료와 전문 기관에서 분석한 자료의 상관관계를 분석하고자 한다. 그 중 최근 뉴스나 콘텐츠가 많이 생산되는 2012년 대통령 선거 후보에 관한 인터넷 뉴스 기사량과 전문조사 기관에서 발표한 각 후보의 지지율을 보이고 두 자료 간의 상관관계를 분석한다. 그리고 실험 결과로 대선 후보들의 기사 점유율과 발표된 지지율에 높은 상관관계가 있음을 보인다.