• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.499-509
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• 2020

We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.

• Survey Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.87-100
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• 2008

We calculated the predictive interval for the number of seats belonging to major political parties in the case of the 2004 General Election of Korea, using Bayesian frame of inference. Moreover, we proposed the adjustment procedure for correcting the minor group's propensity of refusal or nonresponse due to effect of the spiral of silence.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.22
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• pp.107-130
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• 2003

This study evaluated the debate formats adopted in the 2002 Televised Presidential Debates. Presidential Debate Committee have sponsored Televised Presidential Debates during the official campaign period. However, it is not easy task for the Committee to coordinate each party's different interests, such as voters, candidates, and broadcasters. Presidential candidates tries to use the debates as one of their campaign strategies. Broadcasters argued limitations in programming and production process. Regardless of the obstacles, voters expect that the committee makes ideal debate formats. The committee adopted two new forms in the 2002 Debates. The committee allowed direct exchange between candidates as well as advance question preparation by candidate. The committee intends that candidates focus on discussing policy issues. Some studies found that the debate format to allow direct exchange between candidates makes candidates focus on image issues rather than policy issues. The findings of this study are similar to the previous studies'. The new debate formats adopted in 2002 televised presidential debates did not guarantee policy issue oriented discussion. The committee or scholars should evaluate the debate formats used in the presidential debates in order to establish ideal debate formats that gives important information for votes to determine their choice. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the debate formats of former presidential campaign for developing right debate formats.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.380-389
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to examine sidedness effects of political Ad message and moderating roles of consumers' persuasion knowledge. To test these research hypotheses, this study conducted experimental designs. 125 undergraduate students were assigned to one of the two experimental groups. The data demonstrate that message types have a significant effect on both reliability toward Ad message and acceptance intention. In addition, consumers' persuasion knowledge plays a significant moderating role between the message types and the dependent variables. The results of this study suggest various implications by indicating political Ad message as an important factor which can enhance customers' positive responses but has been passed over by the previous research. We also indicated the limitations of this study, and suggested the future research directions.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.161-183
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• 2022

Opinion polls have become a powerful means for election campaigns and one of the most important subjects in the media in that they predict the actual election results and influence people's voting behavior. However, the more active the polls, the more often they fail to properly reflect the voters' minds in measuring the effectiveness of election campaigns, such as repeatedly conducting polls on the likelihood of winning or support rather than verifying the pledges and policies of candidates. Even if the poor predictions of the election results of the polls have undermined the authority of the press, people cannot easily let go of their interest in polls because there is no clear alternative to answer the instinctive question of which candidate will ultimately win. In this regard, we attempt to retrospectively grasp public opinion on the 20th presidential election by applying the 'YouTube Analysis' function of Sometrend, which provides an environment for discovering insights through online big data. Through this study, it is confirmed that a result close to the actual public opinion (or opinion poll results) can be easily derived with simple YouTube data results, and a high-performance public opinion prediction model can be built.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.35-71
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to verify the effect of electoral competition on voters deciding on strategic split-ticket voting under the mixed-member electoral system. As result, the more competitive the constituencies are, the more voters choose to vote for the major parties. The results of logistic regression analysis including interaction terms showed that the more competitive the constituencies are, the more voters choose for candidates from the major parties. Also, the finding shows that major party supporters are less affected by electoral competition than minor party supporters in choosing a candidate in the single-seat districts. In the case of minor party supporters, the more competitive the constituencies were, the more likely they were to choose the major party candidate instead of the minor party candidate. Based on these results, it can be inferred that voters are affected by the presence or behavior of other voters in local constituencies under the first-past-the-post rule. Because of the psychology of not wanting their votes to be useless, voters cast their ballots more strategically as the competition in constituencies intensifies, and as the competition in constituencies slackens, such tendencies weaken, and this trait is particularly evident among minor party supporters.