• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다중위험모형

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Significance Analysis of Facility Fires Though Spatial Econometrics Assessment (공간계량분석 방법에 따른 시설물 화재 발생 유의성 분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.281-293
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    • 2020
  • Recently, large and small fires have been happening more often in Korea. Fire is one of the most frequent disasters along with traffic accidents in korean cities, and this frequency is closely related to the land use and the type of facilities. Therefore, in this study, the significance of fires was analyzed by considering land use, facility types, human and social factors and using 10 years of fire data in Jinju city. Based on this, OLS (Ordinary Least Square) regression analysis, SLM (Spatial Lag Model) and SEM (Spatial Error Model) using space weights, were compared and analyzed considering the location of the fire and each factor, then a statistical model with high suitability was presented. As a result, LISA analysis of spatial distribution patterns of fires in Jinju city was conducted, and it was proved that the frequency of fires was high in the order as follow, central commercial area, industrial area and residential area. Multiple regression analysis was performed by integrating demographic, social, and physical variables. Therefore, the three models were compared and analyzed by applying spatial weighting to the derived factors. As a result of the significance test, the spatial error model was analyzed to be the most significant. The facilities that have the highest correlation with fire occurrence were second type neighborhood facilities, followed by detached house, first type neighborhood facilities, number of households, and sales facilities. The results of this study are expected to be used as significant data to identify factors and manage fire safety in urban areas. Also, through the analysis of the standard deviation ellipsoid, the distribution characteristics of each facility in the residential area, industrial area, and central commercial area among the use areas were analyzed. In, the second type neighborhood facility with the highest fire risk was concentrated in the center. The results of these studies are expected to be used as useful data for identifying factors and managing fire safety in urban areas.

Construction of Urban Crime Prediction Model based on Census Using GWR (GWR을 이용한 센서스 기반 도시범죄 특성 분석 및 예측모델 구축)

  • YOO, Young-Woo;BAEK, Tae-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to present a prediction model that reflects crime risk area analysis, including factors and spatial characteristics, as a precursor to preparing an alternative plan for crime prevention and design. This analysis of criminal cases in high-risk areas revealed clusters in which approximately 25% of the cases within the study area occurred, distributed evenly throughout the region. This means that using a multiple linear regression model might overestimate the crime rate in some regions and underestimate in others. It also suggests that the number of deserted houses in an analyzed region has a negative relationship with the dependent variable, based on the multiple linear regression model results, and can also have different influences depending on the region. These results reveal that closure signs in a study area affect the dependent variable differently, depending on the region, rather than a simple or direct relationship with the dependent variable, as indicated by the results of the multiple linear regression model.

Effect of Sensory Processing Patterns on Temperament and Character Traits in Undergraduate Students (대학생의 기질 및 성격발달에 감각처리가 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Seul-Kee;Kang, Chan Mi;Kwon, Jin Ha;Kim, Min-Kyu;Kim, Seong-Hyun;Cho, Yu-Jeong;Kim, Eun Young
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Sensory Integration
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2022
  • Objective : We investigated how sensory processing patterns contribute to temperament and character traits in undergraduate students. Methods : A total of 107 undergraduate students were recruited in September 2022 via convenient sampling method. They completed the Adolescent/Adult Sensory Profile and the Temperament and Character Inventory. Multiple regression models were applied to analyze the effect of sensory processing quadrants (low registration, sensation seeking, sensory sensitivity, sensation avoiding) on each temperament (novelty seeking, harm avoidance, reward dependence, persistence) and character (self-directedness, cooperativeness, self-transcendence) traits. Results : Sensation seeking significantly predicted high levels of novelty seeking, reward dependence, persistence, self-directedness, and self-transcendence but low harm avoidance. Low registration predicted high harm avoidance but low levels of reward dependence, persistence, and self-directedness. Reward dependence was predicted by high sensory sensitivity and low sensation avoiding. Conclusion : This study demonstrated that sensory processing patterns affected novelty seeking, harm avoidance, reward dependence, persistence, self-directedness, and self-transcendence in young adults.

Financial Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads for Financial Institutions Headquartered in the Republic of Korea (국내 금융기관들의 신용부도스왑 스프레드에 대한 재무적 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.338-357
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    • 2012
  • This study investigated any possible financial attributes of the CDS spreads of a firm belonging to financial industries headquartered in the Republic of Korea. There were few studies on this issue, especially for the firms located in emerging capital markets. Coupled with the models such as a multiple regression and a principal component analysis(PCA), this research has identified that only two explanatory variables such as SLOPE and INTER3 (i.e. interaction effect between the BETA and the SLOPE) consistently showed their statistically significant influence on the CDS spreads through the 'selected' model without and with applying a stepwise regression procedure for the robustness. Given the rapid developments of sophisticated financial derivatives, this study may suggest a valuable insight to foreign and domestic investors to identify the possible determinants of CDS spreads at the firm- and/or the industry-level.

An Empirical Study on the Contingent Analyses on the Relationship Between the Characteristics of e-Trade and User Acceptance (전자무역의 특성과 사용자 수용간의 상황적 관계분석)

  • Song, Sun-Yok
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2002
  • 본 연구는 전자무역을 혁신수용의 관점에서 기술하고 있다. 관련 문헌의 고찰을 통해 천자무역 특성요인과 수용자(무역업체) 특성요인을 도출하고, 이를 바탕으로 연구모형의 개발 및 연구가설을 설정하였다. 연구가설은 인터넷리서치를 통해 수집된 자료를 다중회귀분석기법을 이용하여 검정하였다. 그 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전자무역의 특성변수들(지각된 유용성/편의성/위험성)이 전자무역 수용도에 미치는 영향관계를 검증한 결과, 지각된 유용성과 지각된 편의성이 높을수록 전자무역 수용도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 혁신 수용자로서 무역업체의 특성변수들(혁신성향, 정보인프라 성숙도)이 전자무역 수용도에 미치는 영향관계를 검증한 결과, 혁신성향과 정보인프라 성축도 모두 전자무역 수용도에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 혁신성향이 높을수록 그리고 정보인프라가 성숙된 업체일수록 전자무역 수용도가 높게 나타난다는 일반적인 견해와 일치되는 결과이다. 셋째, 두 특성변수들(전자무역 특성, 무역업체 특성)간의 상황적 관계에서는 혁신성향이 낮은 무역업체일수록 전자무역의 정보위험성을 높게 인식하여 천자무역 수용(현재 활용정도와 지속적 이용의도)을 거부할 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 또한 정보인프라 성숙도가 낮은 무역업체일수록 정보위험성을 높게 인식하여 전자무역 수용을 거부할 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 넷째, 전자무역을 통한 수출입 경험여부에 따른 전자무역의 향후 이용의도와의 관계를 분석한 결과 무경험업체의 경우는, 혁신성향이 높고 정보인프라가 성숙된 무역업체일수록 향후 이용의도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 정보인프라 성숙도가 낮은 무역업체일수록 전자무역의 편의성을 낮게 인식하여 전자무역 수용을 거부할 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 유경험업체의 경우는 전자무역에 대한 향후 이용의도가 높은 무역업체일수록 전자무역의 편의성을 오히려 부정적으로 평가하는 경향이 드러났는데, 이러한 현상은 유경험업체가 인식하는 편의성에 대한 기대수준이 무경험업체에 비해 높기 때문인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 혁신성향이 높은 무역 업체가 향후 전자무역을 지속적으로 이용하기 위해서는 전자무역의 편의성을 더 높게 요구하는 것으로 나타냈다. 전자무역의 수용도를 높이기 위해서는 전자무역의 특성요인들에 대한 잠재적 수용자의 태도변화를 파악하는 것도 중요하지만, 수용자 집단의 특성에 맞는 상황적 전략수립이 동시에 필요하다. 그러한 의미에서 본 논문은 전자무역 수용 촉진 전략을 수용자 집단의 특성별로 그리고 상황적으로 수립할 수 있는 기초자료를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Relationship between Delirium and Clinical Prognosis among Older Patients underwent Femur Fracture Surgery (대퇴부골절 후 수술환자의 섬망과 임상예후와의 관계)

  • Shim, Jae-Lan;Hwang, Seon-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.649-656
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    • 2016
  • This study was a retrospective examination to identify the association of postoperative delirium of the prognosis on following femur fracture surgery in elderly patients. Data was collected from the medical records of elderly patients (aged 65 years or older), who underwent femur fracture surgery from July 2010 to January 2014, following on 3-years in one university hospital. A total of 68 patients were involved. There were 31 cases (45.6%) with delirium and 37 cases (54.4%) without delirium. The participant's average age was 80.8 (patients with delirium), and 81.8 (delirium without patients) years of age, respectively, and most of them were female. There was no significant difference between the two groups. Taking five or more medications, serum creatinine level, and the total medical costs were significantly different in the delirium group and non-delirium group. In addition, the proportional hazard model of Cox to determine the predictors for the major clinical outcome occurring after surgery revealed delirium, five or more multi-drug use, and an experience of transfusion to be significant predictors. In conclusion, postoperative delirium in the elderly undergoing femur fracture surgery can have a negative clinical outcome in patients and caregivers. Therefore, a preoperative evaluation and management of the risk factors will be necessary.

Further Investigations on the Financial Characteristics of Credit Default Swap(CDS) spreads for Korean Firms (국내기업들의 신용부도스왑(CDS) 스프레드의 재무적 특성에 관한 심층분석 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.3900-3914
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    • 2012
  • This study examined the background of the recent global financial crisis and the concept of one of the financial derivatives such as the credit default swap(CDS) or synthetic CDO(collateral debt obligations), given the rapid growing and changing the over-the-counter derivative markets in their volume and structures. In comparison with the previous literature such as the study of Park & Kim (2011), this research empirically performed more thorough and comprehensive investigations to find any financial characteristics or attributes to determine the CDS spreads. Regarding the results obtained from the multiple regression models, the explanatory variables such as STYIELD3, SLOPE, INASSETS, and VOLATILITY, showed their statistically significant effects on all the tested dependent variables(DVs). Another procedure such as the principle component analysis(PCA), was also performed to account for additional IDVs as possible determinants of the dependent variables. Subsequent to this analysis, larger coefficients of each corresponding eigenvector such as BETA, PFT2, GROWTH, STD, and BLEVERAGE were found to be possible financial determinants. For robustness, all the IDVs were employed to be tested in the 'full' regression model with stepwise procedure. As a result, STYIELD3, SLOPE, and VOLATILITY, and BETA showed their statistically significant relationship with all the dependent variables of the CDS spreads.

A Exploratory Study on Multiple Trajectories of Life Satisfaction During Retirement Transition: Applied Latent Class Growth Analysis (은퇴 전후 생활만족도의 다중 변화궤적에 관한 탐색적 연구: 잠재집단성장모형을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Eun-Na
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.85-112
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to understand the developmental trajectories of life satisfaction among retirees and to examine what factors differentiate different trajectory classes. This study used three waves of longitudinal data from Korean Retirement and Income Study and data collected every two years(2005, 2007, and 2009). Subjects were respondents aged 50-69 who identified to be retired between wave 1 and wave 2. Finally, this study used 243 respondents for final data analysis. Life satisfaction was measured by seven items. The latent class growth model and multiple logistic regression model were used for data analysis. This study identified three distinct trajectory classes: high stable class(47.7%), high at the early stage but decreased class(42.8%), and low at the early stage and then decreased class(9.5%). This study founded that approximately 50% of the retirees experienced the decline of life satisfaction after retirement and about 10% of the sample was the most vulnerable group. This study analyzed what factors make different among the distinct trajectory groups. As a results, retirees who experienced the improvement in health change were more likely to be in 'high stable class' compared to 'hight at the early stage but decreased class'. In addition, retirees who were less educated, maintained the same health status rather than the improvement, worked as a temporary or a day laborer, and had less household income were more likely to belong to 'low at the early stage and then decreased class' relative to 'high stable class'. This study suggests that there are distinct three trajectories on life satisfaction among the retirees and finds out factors differentiating between trajectory groups. Based on these findings, the study discusses the implications for social work practice and further study.

Numerical Modeling for the Detection of Debris Flow Using Detailed Soil Map and GIS (정밀토양도와 GIS를 이용한 토석류 발생지역 예측 분석)

  • Kim, Pan Gu;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2017
  • This study presents the prediction methodology of debris flow occurrence areas using the SINMAP model. Former studies used a single calibration region applying some of the soil test results to predict debris flow occurrence in SINMAP model, which couldn't subdivide the soil properties for the target areas. On the other hands, a multi-calibration region using a detailed soil map and soil strength parameters (c, ${\phi}$) for each soil series to make up for limitation of former studies is proposed. In this process, soils with soil erodibility factor (K) are classified into three types: 1) gravel and gravelly soil. 2) sand and sandy soil, and 3) silt and clay. In addition, T/R estimation method using mean elevation of target area instead of T/R method using actual occurrence time is suggested in this study. The suggested method is applied to Seobyeok-1 ri area, Bonghwa-gun where debris flow occurred. As a result of comparison between two T/R estimation method, both T/R estimations are almost equal. Therefore, the suggested methodologies in this study will contribute to set up the national-wide mitigation plan against debris flow occurrence.

Predicting Landslide Damaged Area According to Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 산사태 피해면적 변화 예측)

  • Song Eu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.376-386
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    • 2023
  • Due to climate changes, landslide hazards in the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea) continuously increase. To establish the effective landslide mitigation strategies, such as erosion control works, landslide hazard estimation in the long-term perspective should be proceeded considering the influence of climate changes. In this study, we examined the change in landslide-damaged areas in South Korea responding to climate change scenarios using the multivariate regression method. Data on landslide-damaged areas and rainfall from 1981-2010 were used as a training dataset. Sev en indices were deriv ed from rainfall data as the model's input data, corresponding to rainfall indices provided from two SSP scenarios for South Korea: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Prior to the multivariate regression analysis, we conducted the VIF test and the dimension analysis of regression model using PCA. Based on the result of PCA, we developed a regression model for landslide damaged area estimation with two principal components, which cov ered about 93% of total v ariance. With climate change scenarios, we simulated landslide-damaged areas in 2030-2100 using the regression model. As a result, the landslide-damaged area will be enlarged more than the double of current annual mean landslide damaged area of 1981-2010; It infers that landslide mitigation strategies should be reinforced considering the future climate condition.