• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다중위험모형

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A Study on Scenario to establish Coastal Inundation Prediction Map due to Storm Surge (폭풍해일에 의한 해안침수예상도 작성 시나리오 연구)

  • Moon, Seung-Rok;Kang, Tae-Soon;Nam, Soo-Yong;Hwang, Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.492-501
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    • 2007
  • Coastal disasters have become one of the most important issues in every coastal country. In Korea, coastal disasters such as storm surge, sea level rise and extreme weather have placed many coastal regions in danger of being exposed or damaged during subsequent storms and gradual shoreline retreat. A storm surge is an onshore gush of water associated with a tow pressure weather system, typically in typhoon season. However, it is very difficult to predict storm surge height and inundation due to the irregularity of the course and intensity of a typhoon. To provide a new scheme of typhoon damage prediction model, the scenario which changes the central pressure, the maximum wind radius, the track and the proceeding speed by corresponding previous typhoon database, was composed. The virtual typhoon scenario database was constructed with individual scenario simulation and evaluation, in which it extracted the result from the scenario database of information of the hereafter typhoon and information due to climate change. This virtual typhoon scenario database will apply damage prediction information about a typhoon. This study performed construction and analysis of the simulation system with the storm surge/coastal inundation model at Masan coastal areas, and applied method for predicting using the scenario of the storm surge.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.

The Price-discovery of Korean Bond Markets by US Treasury Bond Markets by US Treasury Bond Markets - The Start-up of Korean Bond Valuation System - (한국 채권현물시장에 대한 미국 채권현물시장의 가격발견기능 연구 - 채권시가평가제도 도입 전후를 중심으로 -)

  • Hong, Chung-Hyo;Moon, Gyu-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.125-151
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    • 2004
  • This study tests the price discovery from US Treasury bond markets to Korean bond markets using the daily returns of Korean bond data (CD, 3-year T-note, 5-year T-note, 5-year corporate note) and US treasury bond markets (3-month T-bill, 5-year T-note 10-year T-bond) from July 1, 1998 to December 31, 2003. For further research, we divide full data into two sub-samples on the basis of the start-up of bond valuation system in Korean bond market July 1, 2000, employing uni-variate AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M model. The main results are as follows. First the volatility spillover effects from US Treasury bond markets (3-month T-bill, 5-year T-note, 10-year T-bond) to Korean Treasury and Corporate bond markets (CD, 3-year T-note, 5-year T-note, 5-year corporate note) are significantly found at 1% confidence level. Second, the price discovery function from US bond markets to Korean bond markets in the sub-data of the pre-bond valuation system exists much stronger and more persistent than those of the post-bond valuation system. In particular, the role of 10-year T-bond compared with 3-month T-bill and 5-year T-note is outstanding. We imply these findings result from the international capital market integration which is accelerated by the broad opening of Korean capital market after 1997 Korean currency crisis and the development of telecommunication skill. In addition, these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management, and international portfolio management.

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Locates the Sunken Ship 'Dmitri Donskoi' using Marine Geophysical Survey Techniques in Deep Water (지구물리 탐사기법을 이용한 심해 Dmitri Donskoi호 확인)

  • Yoo, Hai-Soo;Kim, Su-Jeong;Park, Dong-Won
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.104-117
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    • 2004
  • Dmitri Donskoi, which went down during the Russo-Japanese War occurred 100 years ago, was found by using geophysical exploration techniques at the 400 m water depth of submarine valley off Jeodong of Ulleung Island. In the submarine area with the rugged seabed topography and volcanic seamounts, in particular, the reliable seabed images were acquired by using the mid-to-shallow Multibeam exploration technique The strength of corrosion (causticity) of the sunken Donskoi, measured by the electrochemical method, decreased to 2/5 compared with the original strength.

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Predictors of Participation Restriction in Community-dwelling Persons With Spinal Cord Injury (지역사회 거주 척수장애인의 참여 제약에 영향을 미치는 예측요인)

  • Kim, Yeon-Ju;Park, Ji-Hyuk;Kim, Jung-Ran;Park, Hae Yean
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to suggest predictors of participation restriction in community-dwelling Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) based on environmental, functional, injury-related, psychosocial, and sociodemographic factors. Methods: The participants were 82 community-dwelling SCI adults over the age of 18. They were all included in the American Spinal Injury Association's (ASIA) Levels A, B, and C. This study surveyed participants' participation using the CHART-K-SF, environmental factors using the CHIEF-25 Korean version, and functional factors using the SCIM III. Further, pain and distress were surveyed using Zung's Self-rating Pain and the PAD, self-esteem was assessed using the RSES, and self-efficacy using the GSS. Finally, information concerning injury levels, post-injury period, causes of injury-related factors, and sociodemographic factors such as gender, age, marriage, education level, and residence information were collected. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS Version 21.0 Results: Participants' risk factors were environmental and functional. The Nagelkerke's $R^2$ was.737. The OddsRatio(OR) of environmental factors(referent,0-1) was 40.346. Moreover, the OR of the $1^{st}$ quartile functional factor(referent,4thquartile) was 236. 621, and that of the$2^{nd}$ quartile was 21.174. In addition, the occupational predictors included the "policies" subscales in the CHART-K-SF, "physical/structural" in the CHIEF-25, and "mobility" in the SCIM III. Further, the predictors of "physical independence" were "services/assistance" in CHIEF-25, and "respiration and sphincter management' on the SCIM III. Additionally, "mobility" was predicted by "physical/structural" on the CHIEF-25 and "mobility" on the SCIM III. Conclusions: This study multidimensionally confirmed predictors of participation restriction. Through these facts, we investigated occupational therapists' roles in community setting. Therefore, this study's results will provide useful information for occupational therapy services, for which the goal is SCI participation improvement within the community.

Further Analyses on the Contemporary Changes of Profitability for the Firms Belonging to the Chaebol in the Republic of Korea (한국 재벌기업들의 수익성 결정요인에 대한 추세적 심층분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.367-384
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    • 2014
  • This study addresses an empirical issue which has been received little attention in the contemporary finance literature: To identify any financial determinants of the profitability indices for the firms belonging to the Korean chaebol. Three hypotheses of concern were postulated and tested for the sample firms covering the periods of the pre-and post-financial global crises. Regarding the results on the 1st hypothesis test of characterizing any financial profiles for the firms (belonging to the chaebols) by estimating a legitimate panel data model: the present study found the statistically significant relationships of the explanatory variables (BVLEVl, MVLEVl, MV/BV, RISK, FCFF and FOS) with the book-value based profitability ratio: while the market-valued profitability index was explained only by BVLEV2. Regarding the 2nd hypothesis test for the profitability of the sample firms at the industry level: the chaebol firms in the chemical and the food industries overall positioned themselves into the top ranks in order, which was tested by the ANCOVA and the Tukey multiple comparison procedure. Finally: on the 3rd hypothesis test for the 'adjusted' Dupont system, only two such as the 'operating margin' and the 'asset turnover' showed their significant effects between the chaebol firms and their counterparts in both the (parametric) independent samples t-test and the (nonparametric) Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney statistics.

Association Metabolic Syndrome with Sarcopenia in Korean Stroke Patients : Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data(2008-2011) (뇌졸중 유병자의 대사증후군과 근감소증의 관련성: 국민건강조사(2008년-2011년)자료를 근거로)

  • Choi, Sook-Hee;Kim, Yun-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the association metabolic syndrome with sarcopenia in Korean stroke patients. We used the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2008 to 2011 and enrolled a total of 316 stroke patients older than 40 years. Data were analyzed by Rao-Scott ${\chi}^2-test$, generalized linear model and composite sample multiple logistic regression. The prevalence of sarcopenia was 47.3% in men and 46.3% in women. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 50.3% in men and 73.6% in women. After adjusting for age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, exercise, education, income, sroke sequla and stroke duration, men with sarcopenia had increased risk of metabolic syndrome (95% CI: 2.454-18.482, p<.001). This finding can be used to develop evidence-based health promotion program to prevent stroke reccurance for stroke patients.

Factors Affecting Smartphone Addiction among University Students (대학생 스마트폰 중독의 영향요인)

  • Cho, Gyoo-Yeong;Kim, Yun-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.1632-1640
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    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to investigate the factors affecting smartphone addiction of university students and to provide the data for developing intervention program of smartphone addiction prevention. The data were collected from 354 university students and analyzed with t-test and multiple regression by using SPSS 18.0 program. The smartphone addiction rate was 27.4%, which the high risk group rate was 6.2% and potential risk group rate was 21.2%. The significant factors of smartphone addiction were gender(${\beta}=0.149$, p<.001), average daily using time in week(${\beta}=0.292$, p=.001), average daily using time in weekend(${\beta}=0.390$, p<.001), wrist pain in using smartphone(${\beta}=0.148$, p<.001), accident in using smartphone(${\beta}=0.133$, p=.002), sociality(${\beta}=-0.099$, p=.029), impulsiveness(${\beta}=0.211$, p<.001), SNS addiction(${\beta}=0.376$, p<.001). And these factors explained 43.3% of the variance in smartphone addiction. In conclusion, the results from this study indicated a need to develop the intervention program to prevent smartphone addiction considering these factors affecting smartphone addiction.

Social Factors Affecting Internet Searches on Cyber Bullying in Korea and America Using Social Big Data and Google Search Trends (소셜 빅데이터와 Google 검색트렌드를 활용한 한국과 미국의 사이버불링 검색에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Song, Tae-Min;Song, Juyoung;Cheon, Mi-Kyung
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2016
  • The study analyzed big data extracted from Google and social media to identify factors related to searches on cyber bullying in Korea and America. Korea's cyber bullying analysis was conducted social big data collected from online news sites, blogs, $caf{\acute{e}}s$, social network services and message for between January 1, 2011 and March 31, 2013. Google search trends for the search words of stress, exercise, drinking, and cyber bullying were obtained for January 1, 2004 and December 22, 2013. The main results of this study were as follows: first, the significant factors stress were cyber bullying that Korea more than America. Secondly, a positive relationship was found between stress and drinking, exercise and cyber bullying both Korea and America. Thirdly, significant differences were found all path both Korea and America. The study shows that both adults and teenagers are influenced in Korea. We need to develop online application that if cyber bullying behavior was predicted can intervene in real time because these actual cyber bullying-related exposure to psychological and behavioral characteristic.

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The Relation Between Work-Related Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA) among Vehicle Assembly Workers (자동차 조립 작업자들에서 상지 근골격계의 인간공학적 작업평가(Rapid Upper Limb Assessment) 결과와 자각증상과의 연관성)

  • Kim, Jae-Young;Kim, Hae-Joon;Choi, Jae-Wook
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.48-59
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    • 1999
  • Objectives. This study was conducted to evaluate the association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA) in vehicle assembly line workers. The goal of this study is to show the feasibility of RULA as a checklist for work related musculoskeletal symptoms (WMSDs) in Korean workers. Methods. The total number of 199 people from the department of assembly and 115 people from the department of Quality Control(QC) in automotive plant were subjects for this cross sectional study. A standard symptom questionnaire survey has been used for the individual characteristics, work history, musculosketal symptoms and non-occupational covariates. The data were obtained by applying one-on-one interview for the all subjects. RULA has been applied for ergonomic work posture analysis and the primary ergonomic risk sure was computed by RULA method. Association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and RULA were assessed by multiple logistic regression analysis. Results. A total of 314 workers was examined. The prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms by NIOSH case definition was 62.4%. The distribution of musculoskeletal symptoms by the part of the body turned out to be following; back:41.4%, neck: 32.8%, shoulder: 26.4%, arm: 10.5% and hand:29.3%. The relationship of the individual RULA scores were statistically significant for the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms. As the result of the multiple logistic regressioin analysis, grand final score (OR=2.250 95% CI: 1.402-3.612) was associated with musculoskeletal symptoms in any part of the body.; upper arm score(OR=1.786 95% CI: 1.036-3.079) and posture score A(OR=1.634 95% CI: 1.016-2.626) in neck; muscel use score(OR=3.076 95% CI:1.782-5.310) and posture score A(OR=1.798 95% CI: 1.072-3.017) in shoulder; upper arm score(OR=1.715 95% CI: 1.083-2.715) and muscel use score(OR=2.057 95% CI:1.303-3.248) in neck & shoulder; muscle use score(OR=10.662 95% CI: 3.180-35.742) in arm; writst/wist score(OR=2.068 95% CI: 1.130-3.786) and muscle use score(OR=2.215 95% CI: 1.284-3.819) in hand & wrist.; muscle use score of trunk (OR=2.601 95% CI: 1.147-5.901) in back. Conclusions. Musculoskeletal symptoms of the extremities were strongly associated with individual RULA body score. These results show that RULA can be used as a useful assessment tool for the evaluation of musculoskeletal loading which is known to contribute to work-related musculoskeletal disorders. RULA also can be used as a screening tool or incorporated into a wider ergonomic assessment of epidemiological, physical, mental, environmental and organizational factors. As shown in this study, complement of the analysis system for the other risk factors and characterizing between the upper limb and back part will be needed for future work.

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