• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다변량 시계열 데이터

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Daily Behavior Pattern Extraction using Time-Series Behavioral Data of Dairy Cows and k-Means Clustering (행동 시계열 데이터와 k-평균 군집화를 통한 젖소의 일일 행동패턴 검출)

  • Lee, Seonghun;Park, Gicheol;Park, Jaehwa
    • Journal of Software Assessment and Valuation
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2021
  • There are continuous and tremendous attempts to apply various sensor systems and ICTs into the dairy science for data accumulation and improvement of dairy productivity. However, these only concerns the fields which directly affect to the dairy productivity such as the number of individuals and the milk production amount, while researches on the physiology aspects of dairy cows are not enough which are fundamentally involved in the dairy productivity. This paper proposes the basic approach for extraction of daily behavior pattern from hourly behavioral data of dairy cows to identify the health status and stress. Total four clusters were grouped by k-means clustering and the reasonability was proved by visualization of the data in each groups and the representatives of each groups. We hope that provided results should lead to the further researches on catching abnormalities and disease signs of dairy cows.

Prediction of the interest spread using VAR model (벡터자기회귀모형에 의한 금리스프레드의 예측)

  • Kim, Junhong;Jin, Dalae;Lee, Jisun;Kim, Suji;Son, Young Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1093-1102
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we predicted the interest spread using the VAR (vector autoregressive) model. Variables used in the VAR model were selected among 56 domestic and foreign macroeconomic time series through crosscorrelation and Granger causality test. The performance of the VAR model was compared with the univariate time series model, AR (autoregressive) model, in view of MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) and RMSE (root mean square error) of forecasts for the last twelve months.

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Ocean Freight Rate (해상운임에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.385-391
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a multivariate time series analysis was conducted to identify various variables that impact ocean freight rates in addition to supply and demand factors. First, we used the ClarkSea Index, Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, and Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings provided by the Shipping Intelligence as substitute variables for the dependent variable, ocean freight. The following ndependent variables were selected: World Seaborne Trade, World Fleet, Brent Crude Oil Price, World GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production (IP OECD) Growth Rate, Interest Rate (US$ LIBOR 6 Months), and Inflation (CP I OECD) through previous studies. The time series data comprise annual data (1992-2020), and a regression analysis was conducted. Results of the regression analysis show that the World Seaborne Trade and Brent Crude Oil P rice impacted the ClarkSea Index. Only the World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade impacted the Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, World Seaborne Oil Trade, Brent Crude Oil Price, IP, and CP I on the Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings.

반도체 공정 신호의 이상탐지 및 분류를 위한 자기구상지도 기반 기법에 관한 연구

  • Yun, Jae-Jun;Park, Jeong-Sul;Baek, Jun-Geol
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.36-36
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    • 2011
  • 반도체 공정 신호는 주기 신호와 비주기 신호로 구분된다. 특정 패턴을 가지는 주기 신호는 해당 파라미터(parameter)에 대해서 패턴 매칭을 수행하여 관리하는 연구가 진행되고 있다. 반면 비주기 신호 데이터의 경우에는 패턴 매칭 방법을 수행할 수 없다. 또한 반도체 공정에서 얻을 수 있는 두 개 타입의 데이터는 그 파라미터가 방대하기 때문에 현재 실제 공정에 적용되고 있는 방식인 각각 하나의 파라미터에 대해 관리도(control chart)를 구성해 관리하는 것은 많은 비용과 시간의 낭비를 초래한다. 따라서 두 타입 데이터의 여러 개의 파라미터를 동시에 관측할 수 있고 파라미터간의 내재된 상관관계를 고려할 수 있는 장점을 가진 분석 기법에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 주기 신호의 이상탐지를 위한 기존 연구는 신호를 구간으로 나누어 구간별로 SPC 차트적용 시키는 방법, 각 시점 마다 측정되는 값을 하나의 변수로 고려하여 Hotelling's T square, PCA, PLS 등과 같은 다변량 통계 분석을 적용 시키는 방법들이 제시되어 왔다. 이러한 방법들은 다양한 특성을 가지는 주기신호를 분석하고 이상을 탐지 하는데 많은 한계점을 가진다. 이에 본 논문은 다양한 형태를 가지는 신호의 특성을 반영하여 자기구상지도를 기반으로 신호의 분류와 공정의 이상을 탐지하는 기법을 제안한다. 제안하는 기법은 자기구상지도를 이용하여 복잡한(고차원, 시계열) 신호를 2차원 상의 노드로 맵핑시킴으로써 신호의 특질(feature)을 추출하고 새로 표현된 신호의 특질을 기반으로 Logistic regression을 적용시켜 이상을 탐지 한다. 다양한 이상 상황을 가진 반도체 공정 신호를 사용하여 제안한 이상탐지 성능을 평가하였다.

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Prediction of Water Storage Rate for Agricultural Reservoirs Using Univariate and Multivariate LSTM Models (단변량 및 다변량 LSTM을 이용한 농업용 저수지의 저수율 예측)

  • Sunguk Joh;Yangwon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_4
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    • pp.1125-1134
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    • 2023
  • Out of the total 17,000 reservoirs in Korea, 13,600 small agricultural reservoirs do not have hydrological measurement facilities, making it difficult to predict water storage volume and appropriate operation. This paper examined univariate and multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling to predict the storage rate of agricultural reservoirs using remote sensing and artificial intelligence. The univariate LSTM model used only water storage rate as an explanatory variable, and the multivariate LSTM model added n-day accumulative precipitation and date of year (DOY) as explanatory variables. They were trained using eight years data (2013 to 2020) for Idong Reservoir, and the predictions of the daily water storage in 2021 were validated for accuracy assessment. The univariate showed the root-mean square error (RMSE) of 1.04%, 2.52%, and 4.18% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. The multivariate model showed the RMSE 0.98%, 1.95%, and 2.76% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. In addition to the time-series storage rate, DOY and daily and 5-day cumulative precipitation variables were more significant than others for the daily model, which means that the temporal range of the impacts of precipitation on the everyday water storage rate was approximately five days.

A Study on Establishment of Time Series Model for Deriving Financial Outlook of Basic Research Support Programs (기초연구지원사업의 재정소요 전망 도출을 위한 시계열 모형 수립 연구)

  • Yun, Sujin;Lee, Sangkyoung;Yeom, Kyunghwan;Shin, Aelee
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.21-48
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    • 2019
  • In the basic research field, quantitative expansion is carried out with active support from the government, but there is no research and policy data suggesting systematic investment plans or data-based financial requirements yet. Therefore, this study predicted future financial requirements of basic research support programs by using time series prediction model. In order to consider various factors including the characteristics of the basic research field, we selected the ARIMAX model which can reflect the effect of multi valuable factors rather than the ARIMA model which predicts the value of single factor over time. We compared the predictions of ARIMAX and ARIMA models for model suitability and found that the ARIMAX model improves the prediction error rate. Based on the ARIMAX model, we predicted the fiscal spending of basic research support programs for five years from 2017 to 2021. This study has significance in that it considers the financial requirements of the basic research support programs as a pilot research conducted by applying a time series model, which is a statistical approach, and multi-variate rather than single-variate. In addition, considering the policy trends that emphasize the importance of basic research investment such as 'the expansion of basic research budget twice', which is the current government's national policy task, it can be used as reference data in establishing basic research investment strategy.

Predicting the Future Price of Export Items in Trade Using a Deep Regression Model (딥러닝 기반 무역 수출 가격 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Ji Hun;Lee, Jee Hang
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2022
  • Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) annually publishes the trade data in South Korea under the guidance of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy in South Korea. The trade data usually contains Gross domestic product (GDP), a custom tariff, business score, and the price of export items in previous and this year, with regards to the trading items and the countries. However, it is challenging to figure out the meaningful insight so as to predict the future price on trading items every year due to the significantly large amount of data accumulated over the several years under the limited human/computing resources. Within this context, this paper proposes a multi layer perception that can predict the future price of potential trading items in the next year by training large amounts of past year's data with a low computational and human cost.

Time series and deep learning prediction study Using container Throughput at Busan Port (부산항 컨테이너 물동량을 이용한 시계열 및 딥러닝 예측연구)

  • Seung-Pil Lee;Hwan-Seong Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.391-393
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, technologies forecasting demand based on deep learning and big data have accelerated the smartification of the field of e-commerce, logistics and distribution areas. In particular, ports, which are the center of global transportation networks and modern intelligent logistics, are rapidly responding to changes in the global economy and port environment caused by the 4th industrial revolution. Port traffic forecasting will have an important impact in various fields such as new port construction, port expansion, and terminal operation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to compare the time series analysis and deep learning analysis, which are often used for port traffic prediction, and to derive a prediction model suitable for the future container prediction of Busan Port. In addition, external variables related to trade volume changes were selected as correlations and applied to the multivariate deep learning prediction model. As a result, it was found that the LSTM error was low in the single-variable prediction model using only Busan Port container freight volume, and the LSTM error was also low in the multivariate prediction model using external variables.

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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

A spectrum based evaluation algorithm for micro scale weather analysis module with application to time series cluster analysis (스펙트럼분석 기반의 미기상해석모듈 평가알고리즘 제안 및 시계열 군집분석에의 응용)

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kwak, Hwa-Ryun;Kim, Yu-Na;Choi, Young-Jean
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2015
  • In meteorological field, many researchers have tried to develop micro scale weather analysis modules for providing real-time weather information service in the metropolitan area. This effort enables us to cope with various economic and social harms coming from serious change in the micro meteorology of a metropolitan area due to rapid urbanization such as quantitative expansions in its urban activity, growth of population, and building concentration. The accuracy of the micro scale weather analysis modules (MSWAM) directly related to usefulness and quality of the real-time weather information service in the metropolitan area. This paper design a evaluation system along with verification tools that sufficiently accommodate spatio-temporal characteristics of the outputs of the MSWAM. For this we proposes a test for the equality of mean vectors of the output series of the MSWAM and corresponding observed time series by using a spectral analysis technique. As a byproduct, a time series cluster analysis method, using a function of the test statistic as the distance measure, is developed. A real data application is given to demonstrate the utility of the method.