• 농촌계획
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.93-104
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• 2022

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to droughts, and drought damage on the agriculture sector could have effects on other sector. Droughts have different characteristics compared to other extreme events, which means more sophisticated methods considering the characteristics of droughts are required when measuring their damage. The purpose of this study is to analyze the damage of droughts based on limited computational general equilibrium model. To be specific, we constructed a CGE model focusing on the agriculture sector in Korea. Also, to limit changes in land use and labor, we limited them, and assume droughts only have effects on productivity of value-added. Lastly, we simulate drought effects on rice production in Korea based on several climate scenarios and GCM to identify the economic effects of droughts. The results show that 1) the cumulated damage of droughts during 2021~2040 is higher than other periods (2040~2061, 2081~2100), 2) the correlation between the damage of droughts and SSP scenarios is insignificant. This result implies the necessity of the effective drought risk management to prevent future droughts effects, irrespective of mitigation policies. 3) Due to increases in rice price, GDP of rice sector is increased. However, GDP of the other sector and consumer welfare are decreased. This result show that indirect effects of droughts would be more important when measuring drought effects on agriculture sector.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.223-223
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• 2022

최근 도시지역의 홍수피해가 증가함에 따라 홍수방어대책이 중요해지고 있다. 제방 축조 및 배수시설 개선 등의 구조적 대책이 우선되어야 하나, 계획빈도 이상의 호우로 인한 피해 발생시 인명피해 및 재산피해를 최소화하기 위한 비구조적 대책 또한 중요한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 도시지역의 비구조적 대책 수립을 위해 하천 제방 붕괴로 인한 홍수범람 해석을 수행하였다. 도시지역의 홍수범람 해석은 일반적으로 확산형의 흐름 특성을 가져, 홍수의 잠재성이 크다고 판단되는 도시지역에 대해 확산형 범람 해석을 통해 홍수의 전파양상을 심층적으로 검토할 수 있는 Flumen 모형을 적용하였다. "홍수위험지도 작성에 관한 지침(2020, 환경부)"에서는 2차원(확산형) 홍수범람 분석시 LiDAR 기반 1m급 DEM 자료를 권장하고 있으나, 영산·섬진강권역(제주도 포함) 내 1m급 DEM 자료는 약 11,320km²가 구축되어 전체면적(17,756km²) 대비 64%만 구축되어 도시지역 전체 적용에 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 도시지역과 농경지가 포함된 도시지역(농촌형 도심지역)을 대상으로 1m급 DEM과 5m급 DEM을 구분하여 2차원(확산형) 홍수범람 분석을 수행하였다. 도시지역으로는 지방하천 순천동천이 관류하는 순천시가지를 선정하였고, 농촌형 도심지역으로는 지방하천 광치천이 관류하는 남원시가지를 선정하였다. 2차원 홍수범람 해석을 위해 주요 지점별 파제 시나리오는 각 지구별 동일하게 작성하였으며, DEM 자료에 따른 검토 결과, 도시지역의 경우 지하차도 등과 같은 시설로 인한 차이가 발생하였으나, 농촌형 도시지역의 경우 DEM 해상도에 따른 침수양상 및 면적 차이가 크지 않은 것으로 검토되어 농촌형 도시지역의 경우 5m급 DEM 자료의 활용이 가능한 것으로 검토되었다. 추후 전국 지방·도시하천에 대한 홍수위험지도 제작이 완료된다면 홍수로 인한 침수피해에 대해 사전에 대비하고, EAP, 재해지도 제작, 수해방지대책 수립 등 관련 계획수립 시 기초자료로 활용이 가능할 것이다.

• 한국농촌건축학회논문집
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.27-35
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• 2012

The purpose of this study was to establish planning criteria and development of type for the senior citizen who lives alone in home for the elderly at rural and fishing villages. In order to take most suitable co-housing, this analysis is progressed various building types based on aging in place and aging in health; self care, nono care, service care and community care. This paper is to suggest collective housing with 10 types in large scale and extracted 19 types in detail scale. The basis of classification are location condition; aging in place, building condition, health care condition; aging in health and possession & operation condition. In viewpoint of dwelling welfare 'Home for the Elderly' is to concerned with systematic methodology and architectural typology for senior citizen who lives alone in the rural and fishing village.

• 농촌계획
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.63-73
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of the digital divide at individual level and regional level in Korea, considering interaction between individual and the regional variables. Following results are obtained. First, individual level digital devide in the 16 different regions has been found in terms of Internet use, implying the needs for further analysis on impact of the regional factor in individual Internet use. Second, the result finds the impact of level-l individual variables, "gender, age, education, income and jobs" on digital divide, significantly at level 10% level. Third, the regional variables influencing the individual digital divide were not found at state level. However, regional factors might affect digital devide at county level. Study suggest some plans to reduce digital divide. First, the digital devide at individual level should be remedied by focusing on neglected class of people. Second, we need to approach the digital divide by analyzing in more detail, reflecting interactions of the regional variables and individual variables. Third, we should come up with a policy for mending the digital divide at regional level.

• 농촌계획
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.137-147
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• 2015

In this study, consumers who have experience of visiting Jeongsun Arirang Market has been selected as samples to understand the characteristics of agricultural products purchase. For this, double hurdle model was used in order to resolve sample selection problem and obtain consistent estimator. The key points are the following. First, as the age increases(up to 59.8 years), chances of purchasing the products at traditional market increase as income increases. Second, when the residence area is outside of Gangwon-province, the purchase amount of the products increased compared to those from visitors within the Gangwon province. Also, visitors who use public transportations purchase less products compared to those who use their own car. Third, probability of agricultural products increase as the visitors consider positive effect the product purchase leads to the local farmers. Fourth, if the visitors consider the quality of the agricultural products, probability of purchasing agricultural product at the site increases. However, if the visitors consider the freshness of the agricultural products, the purchase amount rather drops. Fifth, the probability of purchase increases as visitors consider the brand of traditional market.

• 한국농촌건축학회논문집
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2012

According to the aging acceleration phenomenon of the population, Korean society is progressing toward the insecurity society on the 'blessing' or 'disaster'. The purpose of this paper is to establish direction of planning about the dwelling form of collective housing for the senior citizen who lives alone in rural and fishing villages. This focus of study is closely related to the health of the elderly and dwelling form preference. The results of research are as follows. First, the dwelling type of collective housing should be developed for elderly living alone, that must be secured by community life and private life at the same time. Second, it should be supported by such a level of application with Universal Design and Barrier Free Design. Third, collective housing served to the design that the elderly care, as one of the domiciliary care is value in having fact to psychological, physical intention. Fourth, it should be developed visit care or call care for welfare system service and community service manpower on the various types.

• 농촌계획
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to estimate a probability to visit the Yeosu Aquarium with an ordered logit model. Ordered logit model is affordable to estimate the probability when the dependant variable represents likert-type scale. The estimated results are as follows. The more income induces the visiting-expectation. The experience for another aquarium and the visiting-expectation for the Yeosu EXPO are contributed to the visiting-expectation for the Yeosu Aquarium. The needs to visit the Yeosu Aquarium is low in Kyoungsang area and Seoul-Kyounggi-Incheun Metropolitan area. This is related to the Aquarium facilities, which were established in each area. In average level conditions regarding to all independent variables the probability to visit the Yeosu Aquarium is calculated to 15.75%. However, the probability to visit to the Yeosu Aquarium is decreasing according to the change of an admission fee.

• 농촌계획
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.109-117
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to present a time series model of onion and garlic prices. After considering the various time series models, we calculated the appropriate time series models for each item and then selected the model with the minimized error rate by reflecting the monthly dummy variables and import data. Also, we examined whether the predictive power improves when we combine the predictions of the Korea Rural Economic Institute with the predictions of time series models. As a result, onion prices were identified as ARMGARCH and garlic prices as ARXM. Monthly dummy variables were statistically significant for onion in May and garlic in June. Garlic imports were statistically significant as a result of adding imports as exogenous variables. This study is expected to help improve the forecasting model by suggesting a method to minimize the price forecasting error rate in the case of the unstable supply and demand of onion and garlic.

• 농촌계획
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.59-67
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• 2005

According to diverse studies in population migration, there has been a strong age-dependent population distribution in Korea. It is shown that a particular age-group tends to reside in a particular locale or community and the effect possesses usually statistical significance. We quantitatively address this issue: how certain division of age group resides in different region of the country, and investigate possible cause of this migration pattern for different age groups. In this study, population migration trend at age groups of 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s has been analyzed incorporating a spatial econometrics model that accounts for diverse statistical pitfalls such as spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependency. We found that migration trend for different age group corresponds to regional characteristics differently. The study concludes with some policy implications and suggests a need of further study.

• 농촌계획
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.67-80
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• 1996

Less Favored Area(LFA) is a newly shaped regional concept and just appearing as a new community design target, where the topogeographical, industry-locational condition and the daily living environment have been outstandingly inferior to any other regions. Community Design(CD) principles that cover a spatial order of settlements are introduced in this study when the CD concept is applied to the LFA. The study puts a great stress on the horizontal and vertical order of communal spatial units and living activities oriented to residents'socio-economic activities, on which a CD district and an inner spatial organization of community is based. Therefore the various relationships between residents' activities and particular places, such as that between agricultural production and land, access to living services and community-outer settlements, is analysed through the field study. The emphatic point is that the spatial unit and organization of community, namely settlement order is casted not only by the horizontal coverage but also by the vertical hierarchy forming a cubic-like spatial order. Applying the CD idea to LFA has limit because the CD has been oriented on urban architectural style and community participation process. Nevertheless, that has a new possibility to understand the fundamental and archetypical change of a spatial pattern of community uncovering the accumulated layer of settlement order especially in the drastically changed mountain community from past to now.