• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.29-66
• /
• 2018

This study constructs an energy-extended KLEM DB of 35 Korean industries, and estimates the elasticities of substitution under various nesting structures of production technologies. Unlike most existing studies that employed only three inputs, K, L, and E, we applied a dual approach where non-energy intermediate input M is also incorporated as a production input. Our dual approach which extended that of van der Werf (2008)'s 3-input model successfully identified and estimated the multi-nested production functions. We provide the estimates of the elasticities of substitution among 4 different energy sources as well. Our estimation results would be used for energy-environment model building for Korea.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.32 no.3
• /
• pp.149-166
• /
• 2023

The emissions trading system, introduced to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, experienced a sharp increase in emission allowance prices during the second plan period (2018-2020), which led to an increase in the demand for smooth supply and demand of emission allowances, while suppliers anticipating a shortage of emission allowances in the future did not participate in trading. Therefore, the authority temporarily revised the guidelines to ensure that the amount of allowances carried forward is proportional to the trading volume as a market stabilization measure. Through an optimization process using a dynamic nonlinear mathematical model, this paper analyzes the impact of the government's intervention on the carryover policy on GHG emission reductions and emission allowance market prices. According to the simulation analysis results, banking regulations could cause a decline in prices during the regulation period, even though the initial policy was predicted to be adopted.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.473-496
• /
• 2014

This paper intends to test the non-linear relationship between $CO_2$ emissions and income by employing cointegration model of the time-varying income elasticity. We select France, UK, Italy, Japan, US, China, India, Mexico and Korea and use non-parametric time series analysis on each country in order to estimate its own effect of income on $CO_2$ emission. The main results indicate that the $CO_2$ emission-income elasticities vary over time and the income elasticities of the Annex I countries tend to be higher in absolute terms than those of developing countries. In addition, we find that emission-income elasticities decrease for Annex I countries over time, whereas those for developing countries increase.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.229-253
• /
• 2016

To achieve the socially optimum level of renewable generation, governments should design renewable policies to induce renewable technologies competitive with conventional generation technologies. And to do that, it is needed to understand how each policy has been effective in promoting renewables for power sector. In most of the literatures, there are two key limitations that they did not considered autocorrelation problem using the amount of generation from renewables as a dependent variable and technology innovation which needs to be preceded technology adoption. In this study, I try to overcome these two problems by using dynamic panel model and adding an additional variable for technology innovation. According to the result, FIT has been effective rather than RPS in promoting renewables for generation and I found the possibility that the counterintuitive results which commonly appeared in existing studies might be due to the two limitations mentioned above.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.154-165
• /
• 2016

Recently, the frequency of extreme rainfall event has increased due to climate change and impermeable area also has increased due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, we ought to prepare countermeasures for flood reduction to reduce the damage. To consider climate change, the frequency based rainfall was calculated according to the aimed period(reference : 1971~2010, Target period I : 2011~2040, Target period II : 2041~2070, Target period III : 2071~2100) and the flood discharge was also calculated by climate change using HEC-HMS model. Also, the flood elevation was calculated by each alternative through HEC-RAS model, setting 5 sizes of drainage pumps and reservoirs respectively. The flood map was constructed using topographical data and flood elevation, and the economic analysis was conducted for reduction of flood damage using Multi dimension - Flood Damage Analysis, MD-FDA. As a result of the analysis on the flood control effect, a head of drainage pump was reduced by 0.06m up to 0.44m while it was reduced by 0.01m up to 1.86m in the case of a detention pond. The flooded area shrunk by up to 32.64% from 0.3% and inundation depth also dropped. As a result of a comparison of the Benefit/Cost index estimated by the economic analysis, detention pond E in period I and pump D in period II and III were deemed appropriate as an alternative for climate change. The results are expected to be used as good practices when implementing the flood control works considering climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2016.05a
• /
• pp.342-342
• /
• 2016

국내 저수지 17,477개소 중 30~40 여년전에 축조된 곳은 16,646개소로 95.2%가 노후화로 인한 지속적인 유지보수가 필요하며, 기후변화에 따른 대응능력이 현저하게 낮다. 하구둑, 방조제, 대형 농업용저수지 같은 대규모 농업기반시설들은 축조 당시보다 설계홍수량이 2~3배 이상 증가함에 따라 기후변화에 대비하기 위해 조속한 치수능력 증대가 필요하다. 하지만 대형 농업용저수지의 치수능력 증대를 위해서는 지형적 입지조건, 시공 가능성, 경제성 등을 고려하여 여수로의 위치, 규모, 형식 변경 등이 수반된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 무한천 상류 예당저수지의 여수로 위치변경에 따른 저수지 하류 하천 흐름변화에 대하여 2차원 수치모의 연구를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서는 TELEMAC-2D 모형을 적용하여 저수지 하류 하천의 흐름을 모의하였고, RMA-2 모의결과와 비교검토 하였다. TELEMAC-2D 모형은 상류(subcritical flow)와 사류(supercritical flow) 흐름 모의가 가능하며, 홍수범람 뿐만아니라 동일 격자망으로 유한요소법과 유한체적법 모두 수치모의가 가능한 특징이 있다. 본 연구에서는 시간과 공간에 대하여 2차 정확도를 가지는 WAF(Weighted Average Flux) 유한체적기법과 $k-{\varepsilon}$ 난류모형을 적용하였다. 수치모의시 유역종합치수계획의 30년, 50년, 100년 빈도 계획홍수량에 대하여 여수로 위치변경 전(CASE-1)과 위치변경 후(CASE-2) 저수지 하류하천 흐름변화에 대해 모의하였다. 본 연구는 국내 하천 특성을 반영한 기설 저수지의 하류하천의 흐름에 대한 수치모의의 기초자료로 활용되어, 저수지 방류 흐름이 하류하천에 미치는 영향 분석 등에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2020

The rapid climate change is strengthening carbon emissions regulations internationally. Korea is strongly pressed to accept the obligation to reduce greenhouse gases as one of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article analyzed the Granger causalities among environmental regulation, economic growth, electricity consumption, and CO₂ emission in Korea, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model. As the results, environmental regulation has shown the bidirectional causalities with electricity consumption and CO₂ emission, while being unilaterally affected by economic growth in the long-run and strong relationship. Economic growth has affected electricity consumption, CO2 emission, and environmental regulation in the long-run, in the complex structure of the unilateral and short-run causality with electricity consumption and the bidirectional causality with CO2 emission. The policy implications will be as follows: ① environmental regulation should induce sustainable growth through encouraging technological innovation relating to CO2 reduction and productivity enhancement. ② Responding to the international CO2 reduction regulation, the synthetic policy initiatives will be considered to make synergy effects among policies relating to economic growth, electricity consumption.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2017.05a
• /
• pp.20-20
• /
• 2017

최근 기후변화 영향에 따라 전 세계적으로 인명피해 및 재산피해를 유발하는 자연재난이 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 그로 인한 자연재해의 규모가 점점 더 커지고 있다. 실제로 우리나라에서도 지난 1994 년에서 2013 년까지 지난 20 년간 자연재해에 의한 피해액은 12조 3천억 원으로 집계되었으며, 이 중 강우와 태풍에 의한 피해가 85 % 이고, 대설에 의한 피해는 약 13 % 로 자연재해 중 대부분의 피해는 강우 및 태풍에서 발생하지만, 폭설에 의한 피해도 적지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이에 따라, 정확한 예측을 위해 신뢰도 높은 자료 구축을 통한 대설피해 예측에 관한 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구에서는 대설피해액 예측을 위해 우리나라의 63개 기상 관측소에서 관측한 적설심 자료 및 기상관측 자료와 사회 경제 자료 총 11개를 대설피해 예측을 위한 입력변수로 선정하고, 이를 기상관측소가 속한 도시의 면적에 따라 3개의 지역으로 구분하였다. 주성분분석을 활용하여 선정된 입력변수들을 4개의 주성분으로 구분하고, 인공신경망 및 다중선형 회귀 모형을 구성하여 각 지역별 대설피해 예측의 오차를 분석하였다. 적용결과, 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 대설피해 예측의 수정결정계수는 22.8 %~48.2 %를 나타냈고, 다중선형회귀 모형의 수정결정 계수는 9.2 %~39.7% 로 나타났다. 그러므로 인공신경망 모형이 다중회귀 모형보다 선택된 입력자료를 활용하여 대설피해를 예측하는 목적으로 조금 더 우수한 결과를 나타내었다. 향후 자료를 보완 및 모형의 고도화를 통해 보다 정확한 대설피해 예측 함수 개발이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.61-87
• /
• 1992

Reducing the level of greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to mitigate global warming. One of the most feasible methods to reduce emissions would be to conserve energy and substitute fossil fuels. Yet reducing emissions entails huge financial costs, so it is advisable to employ cost-effective economic instruments such as a carbon tax or tradeable emissions permits. Assuming that the proper economic tools will be used in the future, we calculated the optimal level of emissions reduction for Korea. We applied to our cost-benefit analysis Nordhaus' scenario regarding the economic damage from a $3^{\circ}C$ rise in global temperatures, which is the calculated result when the greenhouse gas level doubles. The result of our analysis based on the 1990 data indicates that the optimal level of emissions reduction ranges from 2% to 15 % of current emissions depending on the value of damage parameters. We also found that the amount of emissions must be reduced will increase if action is postponed, when the development of climate engineering technology or more efficient use of energy is expected. In addition, we discussed the advantages and disadvantages of the economic instruments available to implement emissions reduction. Tradeable permits and carbon tax are equivalent in their cost-effectiveness, but have different implications in practice.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2012.05a
• /
• pp.172-172
• /
• 2012

기후변화에 따른 집중호우가 증가하면서 호우에 따른 피해의 양상이 달라지고 있다. 특히 사회적 경제적으로 발달하면서 도시가 확장되고 산지가 개발됨에 따라 산지와 인접한 지역에 대한 토사재해가 최근 자주 발생하고 있다. 2011년 7월 27일 서울시 우면산에서 발생한 토석류는 집중호우에 따른 사면재해의 새로운 경향을 잘 나타내었던 재해이다. 본 연구에서는 집중호우 발생 시 발생한 토석류의 유출특성을 분석하기 위해 토석류발생 모형실험을 수행하여 공급유량과 하상조건에 따른 유출특성을 분석하였다. 토석류 실험장치의 총 수조길이는 6m이며 상 중 하단부의 경사조절이 가능하다. 유량과 하도조건에 따른 유출특성을 파악하기 위해 토석류 발생지에 대한 분석을 수행하여 국내에서 발생한 대표적인 토석류를 재현하고자 하였다. 연구결과 토석류 유출은 하상재료와 공급유량에 대해 상관성을 가지고 있었으며 하상재료에 대한 추가적인 분석과 하도조건에 대한 더욱 다양한 실험이 수행된다면 토석류 재해지도의 작성이나 토석류 해석모형의 개발에 필요한 기초자료로 활용도가 높을 것이다.