• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.21-38
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• 2014

In response to global warming, the effect of the air temperature on water temperature has been noticed. The change in water temperature in river environment results in the change in water quality and ecosystem, especially Dissolved Oxygen (DO) level, and shifts in aquatic biota. Efforts need to be made to predict future water temperature in order to understand the timing of the projected river temperature. To do this, the data collected by the Ministry of Environment and the Korea Meteororlogical Administration has been used to build a nonlinear relationship between air and water temperature. The logistic function that includes four different parameters was selected as a working model and the parameters were optimized using SCE algorithm. Weekly average values were used to remove time scaling effect because the time scale affects maximum and minimum temperature and then river environment. Generally speaking nonlinear logistic model shows better performance in NSC and RMSE and nonlinear logistic function is recommendable to build a relationship between air and water temperature in Korea. The results will contribute to determine the future policy regarding water quality and ecosystem for the decision-driving organization.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.578-578
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• 2015

동아시아 지역의 대부분은 몬순의 영향으로 인해 수자원의 계절적 변동성이 크며 이로 인해 홍수 및 가뭄이 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 기후변화에 따른 기온과 강수량의 변화는 수자원의 변동성을 더욱 악화시킬 수 있으며, 수재해 피해를 더욱 가중시킬 것으로 전망되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 동아시아 지역의 기온 및 강수량의 변화를 전망하고, 그 특성을 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 CMIP5의 핵심실험인 2개 RCP시나리오(RCP4.5, RCP8.5)에 대한 다수의 GCMs 결과를 이용하였다. 구축한 기후시나리오를 이중선형보간법(bilinear interpolation)을 이용하여 공간적으로 상세화하였으며, Delta method를 이용하여 편의보정을 수행하였다. GCM 모의자료의 편의를 산정하기 위해 관측자료는 APHRODITE의 기온 및 강수량 자료를 이용하였다. GCM에 따라 차이가 나지만, 우리나라의 경우 평균적으로 100~300mm 정도 과소모의 되는 것으로 나타났다. 미래 기온 및 강수량 전망을 위해 과거기간은 1976~2005년, 미래기간은 2021~2050년(2040s), 2061~2090년(2070s)으로 구분하였다. 우리나라의 경우 RCP 4.5 하에서 연평균기온은 $1.4{\sim}1.7^{\circ}C$(2040s), $2.2{\sim}3.4^{\circ}C$(2070s) 정도 상승할 것으로 나타났으며, 연평균 강수량은 4.6~5.3% (2040s), 8.4~10.5% (2070s) 정도 증가할 것으로 나타났다. RCP 8.5에서는 연평균 기온은 RCP4.5에 비해 상승폭이 더 컸으며, 강수량은 유사한 결과가 나타났다. 또한, 동아시아 지역에서도 연평균 기온이 상승하고 연평균 강수량은 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 지역별로 계절별 기온 및 강수량이 매우 다른 양상으로 나타났다. 이는 동아시아 지역과 같이 계절별 강수량 발생패턴이 다른 지역에서는 홍수 및 가뭄에 매우 중요한 역할을 할 것이다. 따라서 지역적으로 계절별 강수량의 변화를 분석해야 할 것으로 판단되며, 추후 유출량 모의를 기반으로 홍수 및 가뭄의 영향을 직접적으로 분석해야할 것으로 판단된다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.191-200
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• 2013

This study was conducted to examine the geographic variation of bud phenology of Zelkova serrata provenances. Data were collected from Gangneung, Yilmsil, Hwaseong and Jinju plantations which were parts of the 6 provenance trials established by Korea Forest Research Institute in 2009. The 16 provenances were included in these trials. The starting date of bud burst and finishing date of leaf expansion were investigated from April to May every other day. The four geographic factors and fifteen climatic factors of the test sites and provenances were considered in this study. Canonical correlation analysis was conducted to examine the major factors affecting the bud phenology between test sites and provenances. The study results suggested that the major factors affecting the timing of bud burst were the differences of extremely high temperature (March-October), annual mean temperature, mean temperature (March-October), extremely high temperature (July-August) and mean humidity (June-October) between test site and provenance. The provenances with lower mean or high temperature than those of plantation showed the earlier bud burst and leaf expansion. It showed a typical north-south or low-high temperature cline. Finally, we discussed the implication of the tree breeding program of Z. serrata based on these results.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.108-121
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• 2021

Field studies at Suwon, Cheorwon, and Jinbu were carried out to determine the relationship between mean temperature from transplanting to heading (MT) and growth at heading stage of rice. P lant height (P H) and dry weight (DW) at heading stage were significantly correlated with MT, showing second degree polynomials. The optimal temperatures for PH and DW were 23.2 ℃ and 22.8 ℃, respectively. Little differences in rice growth among soils collected from the experimental sites and the temperature-response in a phytotron study supported that MT was the main determinant of the growth shown in the field study. Though number of days to heading increased as MT decreased, cumulative temperatures (CT) affected by sites and MT for given varieties were fairly constant. When applying specific CT for each of the varieties to the temperature in North Korea, (1) five regions (Kaesong, Haeju, Sariwon, Nampo, Pyongyang) were suitable for early to mid-maturing varieties and (2) 14 regions (Yongyon, Singye, Anju, Kusong, Sinuiju, Changjon, Wonsan, Hamhung, Pyonggang, Yangdok, Huichon, Supung, Sinpo, Kanggye) were suitable only for early-maturing varieties. In (1) regions, the similar extent of growth with that in Suwon could be achieved when mid-maturing varieties grown in Suwon are cultivated. Among (2) regions, early-maturing varieties are expected to demonstrate the similar extent of growth with that in Cheorwon in 9 regions except Hamhung, Kanggye, Pyonggang, Yangdok, and Sinpo. For Hamhung and Kanggye, the target PH was assessed as 4cm higher than that shown in Cheorwon. P lant height of 8-14cm and DW of 2-4g per hill greater than those shown in Cheorwon were the target growth for P yonggang, Yangdok, and Sinpo to attain the similar amount of growth with that in Cheorwon. It is suggested that rice varieties for North Korea could be bred by adjusting the target growth at the breeding sites in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.666-675
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• 2013

This research was carried out from March 2009 to July 2012 to explicate the height change based breeding-ecological characteristics of Titmice that were breeding in the artificial nests installed in the Halla Mountain. The first egg-laying day was delayed as the height of the area under investigation increased, and it turned out that the decrease in temperature due to the elevated height had influence on that delay (p<0.05). Generalizing the annual results of the analyses, we see that there was no significant correlation occurring between the average temperatures and egg-laying days in the breeding season (April~June) (p>0.05). The rate of artificial nest use was not different among areas and among year, but between the species, Parus major and Parus varius. There were differences in clutch sizes among species (p>0.05), but no differences in heights and years (p<0.05). The hatching-, fledging-, and breeding-success rates were 67.3%, 99.5%, and 67.0% respectively in 2011, and 71.3%, 96.8%, 69.0% respectively in 2012, from which we can tell that the fledging-success rate was high but the hatching- and breeding-success rates were similar. Though we confirm that temperature changes due to height differences had influence on breeding periods, but we cannot identify a significant correlation with other breeding-ecological characteristics. Thus, in order to more precisely explicate the influence of temperature changes due to heights on Titmice's breeding, long-term research is needed in terms of the investigation of microclimatic factors and food resource.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.35-49
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• 2014

In order to understand the impacts of surface characteristics and the distance from the urban heat island center to suburban areas on the mean night time air temperature, we analyzed GIS and AWS observational data. Spatial distributions of mean night time air temperature during the summer and winter periods of 2004-2011(six years) were utilized. Results show that the temperature gradients were different by distance and direction. We found high correlation between mean night-time air temperature and artificial land cover area within 1km and 200m radii during both summer(R=0.84) and winter(R=0.78) seasons. Regression models either from 1km and 200m land surface data explained the distribution of night-time temperature equally well if the input data had sufficient resolution with detailed attribute including building area and height.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.467-478
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• 2008

This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of temperature ($^{\circ}C$) and precipitation (mm) in Seoul, Korea. The temperature and precipitation data were measured at 31 automatic weather stations (AWSs) in Seoul for 10 years from 1997 to 2006. In this study, inverse distance squared weighting (IDSW) was applied to interpolate the non-measured spaces. To estimate the temperature and precipitation variability, the mean values and frequencies of hot and cold days were examined. The maximum and minimum temperatures were $32.80^{\circ}C$ in 1999 and $-19.94^{\circ}C$ in 2001, respectively. The year 2006 showed the highest frequency of hot temperatures with 79 hot days, closely followed by 2004 and 2005. The coldest year was in 2001 with 105 cold days. The annual mean temperature and precipitation increased by about $1^{\circ}C$ and 483mm during the 10-year period, respectively. The temperature variability differed between high-elevation forested areas and low-elevation residential areas. However, the precipitation variability showed little relation with the topography and land use patterns.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.25-31
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• 2008

Information on daily maximum air temperature is important in predicting the status of plants and insects, but the uneven and sparse distribution of weather stations prohibits timely access to the data in regions with complex topography. Since cumulative solar irradiance plays a critical role in determining daily maximum temperature on any sloping surfaces, derivation of a quantitative relationship between cumulative solar irradiance and the resultant daily maximum temperature is a prerequisite to development of such estimation models. Air temperatures at 8 sideslope locations with similar elevation and slope angle but aspect, circumventing a cone-shaped, grass-covered parasitic volcano (c.a., 570 m diameter for the bottom circle and 90m bottom-to-top height), were measured from June to December in 2007. Daily maximum temperatures from each location were compared with the average of 8 locations (assumed to be the temperature measured at a "horizontal reference" position). The temperature deviation at all locations increased with the day of year (or sun elevation) from summer solstice to winter solstice. Averaged over the entire period, the south facing location was warmer by $1^{\circ}C$ in daily maximum temperature than "horizontal reference" and the north facing location was cooler by $0.8^{\circ}C$ than the reference, resulting in the year round average south-north temperature difference of $1.8^{\circ}C$. In November, both south and north facing slopes showed the greatest deviation of $+2.0^{\circ}C$ and $-1.3^{\circ}C$, respectively in daily maximum temperature at monthly scale. On a daily scale, the greatest deviation was +3.8 and $2.7^{\circ}C$ at the south and north slope, respectively. The cumulative solar irradiance (on the slope for 4 hours from 11:00 to 15:00 TST) explained >60% of the variance in daily maximum temperature deviations among 8 locations, suggesting a feasibility of developing an estimation model for daily maximum temperature over complex topography at landscape scales.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2017

This study aims to identify the warm and cold periods(WP, CP) of November appeared in the daily normals of daily minimum temperature of Seoul for 1941~1970 and 1971~2000 and to investigate synoptic characteristics of the temperature changes of WP and CP. The WP temperatures are increased clearly(p value 0.000), the CP temperatures are also warming but not significant statistically. In WP, there are not apparent trends corresponding the warming of WP temperature, in the Siberian High, Sea Level Pressure(SLP), 925hPa surface wind(U925, V925) around the Korean peninsula. In high period(1972~1979) of WP temperature, there are positive SLP anomaly and anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern of 925hPa wind field over the Korean peninsula then the winter monsoon is weakened and the WP temperature is ascending. In CP, the Siberian high are weakening, the Hokkaido eastern low are strengthening and the westerlies(U925) over the Korean Peninsula are enlarging. So CP temperature are suppressed in rising trend or shows weak descent.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.133-133
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• 2012

기후변화에 관한 정부 간 패널 IPCC의 4차 보고서에 의하면 지난 100년간 지구 평균 기온의 선형추세선 기울기가 $0.74^{\circ}C$/년을 보이고 있으며 21세기말 지구의 평균기온은 최대 $6.3^{\circ}C$까지 더 상승할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 이러한 대기기온의 상승은 저수지 및 하천의 수온과 밀접한 관계를 지니는데, 저수지 표층 수온 및 유입 하천의 수온을 증가시켜 저수지 수온 성층형성시기를 앞당겨 성층화 기간을 증가시키고 또한 성층강도도 증가하게 된다. 이러한 수온성층기간 및 강도의 증가는 심수층의 용존산소 고갈과 이에 따른 퇴적층의 영양염류 용출량을 증가시켜 저수지 수질관리에 어려움을 야기할 것으로 전망되고 있다. 특히 온대기후대에 속하는 우리나라의 대부분의 대형 인공 저수지는 여름철 뚜렷한 수온성층구조가 확인되고 있어 대기기온 상승이 수온성층구조에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것은 미래 기후변화에 대비한 저수지 수질관리 전략 수립을 위해 필요한 기초 연구라 판단되어진다. 본 연구에서는 2차원 횡방향 평균 수치모형(CE-QUAL-W2)을 활용하여 대기 온도 변화에 따른 충주호의 수온분포를 모의하고 수온 성층구조의 변동경향을 분석하였다. 지구 온난화 영향 모의에 앞서 2010년과 2008년의 충주호 수문조건에 모형을 적용하여 수온 성층구조의 재현성을 확인하였다. 미래 대기기온 자료는 국립기상연구소에서 제공하는 한반도 기후전망 모의자료(RCM) 중 충주댐 유역의 평균 기온자료를 수집하여 사용하였으며, 모의연도는 2011, 2040, 2070, 2100으로 하였다. 또한, 대기기온과 유입수온 자료를 제외한 모든 입력자료는 보정년도인 2010년과 동일하다고 가정하여 대기기온 변화의 영향만을 고려하였다. 2011년에 비해 2100년의 대기기온이 연평균 $2.44^{\circ}C$ 증가하였을 때 표층수온은 평균 $1.72^{\circ}C$, 최대 $4.31^{\circ}C$ 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 심층수온은 평균 $0.36^{\circ}C$, 최대 $1.33^{\circ}C$ 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 성층구조 형성기간의 비교를 위해 표층과 심층의 수온이 $5^{\circ}C$ 이상의 차이를 보이는 기간을 조사한 결과 2011년에 비해 2100년에서 5일 일찍 시작되어 11일 더 지속되는 것으로 나타났다.