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Double Cropping Productivity of Main Whole-Crop Silage Rice and Winter Feed Crops in the Central Plains of Korea (중부 평야지에서 사료용 벼와 주요 동계사료작물 이모작 시 생산성)

  • Ahn, Eok-Keun;Jeong, Eung-Gi;Park, Hyang-Mi;Jung, Kuk-Hyun;Hyun, Ung-Jo;Ku, Ja-Hwan
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.311-322
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    • 2019
  • In order to establish an optimal double cropping system to obtain the maximum annual quantity, we investigated the annual productivity of whole-crop silage (WCS) rice, Jowoo (Jw), Yeongwoo (Yw), and Mogwoo (Mw), and winter feed crops (WFC), Italian ryegrass (IRG), Greenfarm (GF), rye Gogu (GU), and triticale Joseong (JS), in paddy fields of the central plains of Korea. From 2016 to 2019, each crop was subjected to two standard cultivation methods: WCS rice and WFC optimal. Using the WCS optimal mode, the average dry matter yield (DMY) of WCS rice, early flowering Jw, was 15.8 tons/ha and 21.0 for the mid-late heading Yw; there was no significant difference compared to the 19.2 tons/ha late-flowering Mw (p<0.01). The WFC were not significantly different between GF (3.2 tons/ha) and GU (4.5) sown on September 23rd, while JS was the highest at 12.6 tons/ha (p<0.001). There was a significant difference in the order of JS (16.6 tons/ha) > GF (10.5) > GU (4.7)(p<0.001) sown on October 11th. For JS sown on October 31st, the DMY was 11.8 tons/ha, which was significantly higher than that of the other two crops (p<0.05). Except for rye GU, DMY was the highest when sown on October 11th. For WFC optimal mode, the average DMY of JS was the highest at 18.3 tons/ha, which was significantly different from that of GF (10.9) and GU (9.6) (p<0.001). The DMY of WCS rice transplanted on May 10th was the highest at 23.0 tons/ha in Mw, which was not significantly different from that of Yw (21.4) but significantly different from that of Jw (15.9) (p<0.05). On transplanting on May 25th, the DMY of Mw was the highest at 24.2 tons/ha; this was not significantly different from that of Yw (20.7), but it was significantly different from that of Jw (18.6) (p<0.05). When transplanted on June 11th, the DMY was 21.3 tons/ha in Yw, which was significantly higher than the DMY of other two cultivars, Jw and Mw (p<0.05). For the WCS rice-WFC double cropping, the total annual DMY was 33.6 tons/ha with the combination of the WCS rice, Yw, and the triticale JS for WCS optimal mode. Meanwhile, the total annual DMY was 39.6 tons/ha with the combination of the triticale JS and the WCS rice, Yw, for WFC optimal mode. In conclusion, the strategies for obtaining the maximum yield of high-quality forage for WCS rice-WFC, WFC-WCS rice double cropping are as follows: 1) cultivation centered on the optimal mode of WFC, and 2) sowing the WFC, triticale JS in mid-October, harvesting the crops around the end of May and transplanting the WCS rice, Yw, in early June to obtain the maximum DMY of 39.6 tons/ha.

Study on Environmental Hazards of Alternatives for PFOS (PFOS 대체물질의 환경유해성에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Bong-In;Chung, Seon-Yong;Na, Suk-Hyun;Shin, Dong-Soo;Ryu, Byung-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.317-322
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    • 2016
  • While PFOS sodium salt ($C_8F_{17}SO_3Na$) was not degraded by microorganisms for 28 days, the 4 alternatives were biodegraded at the rates of 21.6% for $C_{25}F_{17}H_{32}S_3O_{13}Na_3$, 20.5% for $C_{15}F_9H_{21}S_2O_8Na_2$, 15.8% for $C_{23}F_{18}H_{28}S_2O_8Na_2$ and 6.4% for $C_{17}F_9H_{25}S_2O_8Na_2$, respectively. The acute toxicity test using Daphnia magna was conducted for 48 hours, the half effective concentration ($EC_{50}$) of PFOS sodium salt ($C_8F_{17}SO_3Na$) was evaluated in 54.5 mg/L. While the 4 alternatives did not show any effect at 500.0 mg/L. The surface tension of the PFOS salt ($C_8F_{17}SO_3Na$) is 46.2 mN/m at a concentration of 500.0 mg/L. While the surface tension of the 4 alternatives was found to be superior to PFOS sodium salt ($C_8F_{17}SO_3Na$). The surface tension of $C_{23}F_{18}H_{28}S_2O_8Na_2$ (20.9 mN/m) has the lowest, followed by $C_{15}F_9H_{21}S_2O_8Na_2$ (23.4 mN/m), $C_{17}F_9H_{25}S_2O_8Na_2$ (27.3 mN/m), $C_{25}F_{17}H_{32}S_3O_{13}Na_3$ (28.2 mN/m). The four kinds of alternatives ($C_{15}F_9H_{21}S_2O_8Na_2$, $C_{17}F_9H_{25}S_2O_8Na_2$, $C_{23}F_{18}H_{28}S_2O_8Na_2$, $C_{25}F_{17}H_{32}S_3O_{13}Na_3$) were found to be superior to PFOS sodium salt ($C_8F_{17}SO_3Na$) in terms of biodegradation, Daphnia sp. acute toxicity and surface tension, and thus they were considered applicable as PFOS alternatives. Especially biodegradation rate of $C_{15}F_9H_{21}S_2O_8Na_2$, $C_{23}F_{18}H_{28}S_2O_8Na_2$ and $C_{25}F_{17}H_{32}S_3O_{13}Na_3$ was relatively high as 15.8~21.6%, and Daphnia sp. acute toxicity and surface tension were considerably superior (surface tension 39~55%) to PFOS sodium salt. Therefore, these alternatives are considered to be available as an alternative of PFOS.

Assessment of Organic Compound and Bioassay in Soil Using Pharmaceutical Byproduct and Cosmetic Industry Wastewater Sludge as Raw Materials of Compost (제약업종 부산물 및 화장품 제조업 폐수처리오니 처리토양에 대한 유기화합물 및 Bioassay 분석 평가)

  • Lim, Dong-Kyu;Lee, Sang-Beom;Lee, Seung-Hwan;Nam, Jae-Jak;Na, Young-Eun;Kwon, Jang-Sik;Kwon, Soon-Ik;So, Kyu-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.203-210
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to assessment organic compound and bioassay (density of inhabited animal, fluctuation of predominant fungi, and survival ratio of earthworm) for finding damage on red pepper by heavily amount application of sludges in soil, which was treated with 3 pharmaceutical byproducts and a cosmetic industry wastewater sludge as raw materials of compost, and for establishing estimation method. HEM contents in the soil treated with pharmaceutical byproducts sludge2 (PS2) and cosmetic sludge (CS) were 0.51, 1.10 mg/kg respectively. PAHs content of PS2 treatment in the soil was 3406.8 ug/kg on July 8. In abundance of soil faunas, the pharmaceutical byproducts sludge2 treatment was the most highest. The next was decreased in the order of pig manure (PM) and the cosmetic sludge treatment. However the other pharmaceutical sludge treatments were remarkably reduced populations of soil inhabited animals. In upland soil treated with organic sludges, the numbers of bacteria and fungi of the pharmaceutical sludge treatment were 736, 909 cfu/g and those of the cosmetic sludge treatment were 440, 236 cfu/g, respectively. The pharmaceutical sludge treatments and the cosmetic sludge treatment in identification of predominant bacteria were not any tendency to compare with non fertilizer and pig manure treatments, but they had diverse bacteria than NPK treatment. In microcosm tests, the survival of the tiger earthworm in five soil samples was hardly affected against the soil of PSI (20%) after three months treated in the upland But after six months, survival of PS1 was 80%. At present, raw material of compost was authorized by contents of organic matter, heavy metal (8 elements), and product processing according to 'The specified gist on possible materials of using after analysis and investigation among raw materials of compost', however, for preparing to change regulation of raw material of compost and for considering to possibility of application, this study was conducted to investigate toxic organic compound and bioassay methods using inhabited animal, fungi, and earthworm without current regulation.

Effects of Recipient Oocytes and Electric Stimulation Condition on In Vitro Development of Cloned Embryos after Interspecies Nuclear Transfer with Caprine Somatic Cell (수핵난자와 전기적 융합조건이 산양의 이종간 복제수정란의 체외발달에 미치는 영향)

  • 이명열;박희성
    • Reproductive and Developmental Biology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to investigate the developmental ability of caprine embryos after somatic cell interspecies nuclear transfer. Recipient bovine and porcine oocytes were obtained from slaughterhouse and were matured in vitro according to established protocols. Donor cells were obtained from an ear-skin biopsy of a caprine, digested with 0.25% trypsin-EDTA in PBS and primary fibroblast cultures were established in TCM-199 with 10% FBS. The matured oocytes were dipped in D-PBS plus 10% FBS + 7.5 $\mu$ g/ml cytochalasin B and 0.05M sucrose. Enucleation were accomplished by aspirating the first polar body and partial cytoplasm which containing metaphase II chromosomes using a micropipette with an out diameter of 20∼30 $\mu$m. A Single donor cell was individually transferred into the perivitelline space of each enucleated oocyte. The reconstructed oocytes were electric fusion with 0.3M mannitol fusion medium. After the electrofusion, embryos were activated by electric stimulation. Interspecies nuclear transfer embryos with bovine cytoplasts were cultured in TCM-199 medium supplemented with 10% FBS including bovine oviduct epithelial cells for 7∼9 day. And porcine cytoplasts were cultured in NCSU-23 medium supplemented with 10% FBS for 6 ∼8 day at $39^{\circ}C, 5% CO_2 $in air. Interspecies nuclear transfer by recipient bovine oocytes were fused with electric length 1.95 kv/cm and 2.10 kv/cm. There was no significant difference between two electric length in fusion rate(47.7 and 44.6%) and in cleavage rate(41.9 and 54.5%). Using electric length 1.95 kv/cm and 2.10 kv/cm in caprine-porcine NT oocytes, there was also no significant difference between two treatments in fusion rate(51.3 and 46.1%) and in cleavage rate(75.0 and 84.9%). The caprine-bovine NT oocytes fusion rate was lower(P<0.05) in 1 pulse for 60 $\mu$sec(19.3%), than those from 1 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec(50.8%) and 2 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec(31.0%). The cleavage rate was higher(P<0.05) in 1 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec(53.3%) and 2 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec(50.0%), than in 1 pulse for 60 $\mu$sec(18.2%). The caprine-porcine NT oocytes fusion rate was 48.1% in 1 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec, 45.2% in 2 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec and 48.6% in 1 pulse for 60 $\mu$sec. The cleavage rate was higher(P<0.05) in 1 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec(78.4%) and 1 pulse for 60 $\mu$sec(79.4%), than in 2 pulse for 30 $\mu$sec(53.6%). In caprine-bovine NT embryos, the developmental rate of morula and blastocyst stage embryos were 22.6% in interspecies nuclear transfer and 30.6% in parthenotes, which was no significant differed. The developmental rate of morula and blastocyst stage embryos with caprine-porcine NT embryos were lower(P<0.05) in interspecies nuclear transfer(5.1%) than parthenotes(37.4%).

Evaluation of Air Quality in the Compost Pilot Plant with Livestock Manure by Operation Types (축분 퇴비화시스템 운용방식에 따른 실내 대기오염 평가)

  • Kim, K.Y.;Choi, H.L.;Ko, H.J.;Kim, C.N.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.283-294
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    • 2004
  • Air quality in the livestock waste compost pilot plant at the Colligate Livestock Station was assessed to quantity the emissions of aerial contaminants and evaluate the degree of correlation between them for different operation strategies; with the ventilation types and agitation of compost pile, in this study. The parameters analyzed to reflect the level of air quality in the livestock waste compost pilot plant were the gaseous contaminants; ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and odor concentration, the particulate contaminants; inhalable dust and respirable dust, and the biological contaminants; total airborne bacteria and fungi. The mean concentrations of ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and odor concentration in the compost pilot plant without agitation were 2.45ppm, 19.96ppb, and 15.8 when it was naturally ventilated, and 7.61ppm, 31.36ppb, and 30.2 when mechanically ventilated. Those with agitation were 5.50ppm, 14.69ppb, and 46.4 when naturally ventilated, and 30.12ppm, 39.91ppb, and 205.5 when mechanically ventilated. The mean concentrations of inhalable and respirable dust in the compost pilot plant without agitation were 368.6${\mu}g$/$m^3$ and 96.0${\mu}g$/$m^3$ with natural ventilation, and 283.9${\mu}g$/$m^3$ and 119.5${\mu}g$/$m^3$ with mechanical ventilation. They were also observed with agitation to 208.7${\mu}g$/$m^3$ and 139.8${\mu}g$/$m^3$ with natural ventilation, and 209.2${\mu}g$/$m^3$ and 131.7${\mu}g$/$m^3$ with mechanical ventilation. Averaged concentrations of total airborne bacteria and fungi in the compost pilot plant without agitation were observed to 28,673cfu/$m^3$ and 22,507cfu/$m^3$ with natural ventilation, and 7,462cfu/$m^3$ and 3,228cfu/$m^3$ with mechanical ventilation. They were also observed with agitation to 19,592cfu/$m^3$ and 26,376cfu/$m^3$ with the natural ventilation, and 18,645cfu/$m^3$ and 24,581cfu/$m^3$ with the mechanical ventilation. It showed that the emission rates of gaseous pollutants, such as ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and odor concentration, in the compost pilot plant operated with the mechanical ventilation and with the agitation of compost pile were higher than those with the natural ventilation and without the agitation. While the concentrations of inhalable dust and total airborne bacteria in the compost pilot plant with the natural ventilation and with the agitation, the concentrations of respirable dust and total airborne fungi in the compost pilot plant with the mechanical ventilation and agitation were higher than those with the natural ventilation and without the agitation of compost pile. It was statistically proved that indoor temperature and relative humidity affected the release of particulates and biological pollutants, and ammonia and hydrogen sulfide were believed primary malodorous compounds emitted from the compost pilot plant.

Growth Efficiency, Carcass Quality Characteristics and Profitability of 'High'-Market Weight Pigs ('고체중' 출하돈의 성장효율, 도체 품질 특성 및 수익성)

  • Park, M.J.;Ha, D.M.;Shin, H.W.;Lee, S.H.;Kim, W.K.;Ha, S.H.;Yang, H.S.;Jeong, J.Y.;Joo, S.T.;Lee, C.Y.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.459-470
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    • 2007
  • Domestically, finishing pigs are marketed at 110 kg on an average. However, it is thought to be feasible to increase the market weight to 120kg or greater without decreasing the carcass quality, because most domestic pigs for pork production have descended from lean-type lineages. The present study was undertaken to investigate the growth efficiency and profitability of ‘high’-market wt pigs and the physicochemical characteristics and consumers' acceptability of the high-wt carcass. A total of 96 (Yorkshire × Landrace) × Duroc-crossbred gilts and barrows were fed a finisher diet ad laibtum in 16 pens beginning from 90-kg BW, after which the animals were slaughtered at 110kg (control) or ‘high’ market wt (135 and 125kg in gilts & barrows, respectively) and their carcasses were analyzed. Average daily gain and gain:feed did not differ between the two sex or market wt groups, whereas average daily feed intake was greater in the barrow and high market wt groups than in the gilt and 110-kg market wt groups, respectively(P<0.01). Backfat thickness of the high-market wt gilts and barrows corrected for 135 and 125-kg live wt, which were 23.7 and 22.5 mm, respectively, were greater (P<0.01) than their corresponding 110-kg counterparts(19.7 & 21.1 mm). Percentages of the trimmed primal cuts per total trimmed lean (w/w), except for that of loin, differed statistically (P<0.05) between two sex or market wt groups, but their numerical differences were rather small. Crude protein content of the loin was greater in the high vs. 110-kg market group (P<0.01), but crude fat and moisture contents and other physicochemical characteristics including the color of this primal cut were not different between the two sexes or market weights. Aroma, marbling and overall acceptability scores were greater in the high vs. 110-kg market wt group in sensory evaluation for fresh loin (P<0.01); however, overall acceptabilities for cooked loin, belly and ham were not different between the two market wt groups. Marginal profits of the 135- and 125-kg high-market wt gilt and barrow relative to their corresponding 110-kg ones were approximately -35,000 and 3,500 wons per head under the current carcass grading standard and price. However, if it had not been for the upper wt limits for the A- and B-grade carcasses, marginal profits of the high market wt gilt and barrow would have amounted to 22,000 and 11,000 wons per head, respectively. In summary, 120~125-kg market pigs are likely to meet the consumers' preference better than the 110-kg ones and also bring a profit equal to or slightly greater than that of the latter even under the current carcass grading standard. Moreover, if only the upper wt limits of the A- & B-grade carcasses were removed or increased to accommodate the high-wt carcass, the optimum market weights for the gilt and barrow would fall upon their target weights of the present study, i.e. 135 and 125 kg, respectively.

Comparison of CT based-CTV plan and CT based-ICRU38 plan in brachytherapy planning of uterine cervix cancer (자궁경부암 강내조사 시 CT를 이용한 CTV에 근거한 치료계획과 ICRU 38에 근거할 치료계획의 비교)

  • Shim JinSup;Jo JungKun;Si ChangKeun;Lee KiHo;Lee DuHyun;Choi KyeSuk
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : Although Improve of CT, MRI Radio-diagnosis and Radiation Therapy Planing, but we still use ICRU38 Planning system(2D film-based) broadly. 3-Dimensional ICR plan(CT image based) is not only offer tumor and normal tissue dose but also support DVH information. On this study, we plan irradiation-goal dose on CTV(CTV plan) and irradiation-goal dose on ICRU 38 point(ICRU38 plan) by use CT image. And compare with tumor-dose, rectal-dose, bladder-dose on both planning, and analysis DVH Method and Material : Sample 11 patients who treated by Ir-192 HDR. After 40Gy external radiation therapy, ICR plan established. All the patients carry out CT-image scanned by CT-simulator. And we use PLATO(Nucletron) v.14.2 planing system. We draw CTV, rectum, bladder on the CT image. And establish plan irradiation-$100\%$ dose on CTV(CTV plan) and irradiation-$100\%$ dose on A-point(ICRU38 plan) Result : CTV volume($average{\pm}SD$) is $21.8{\pm}26.6cm^3$, rectum volume($average{\pm}SD$) is $60.9{\pm}25.0cm^3$, bladder volume($average{\pm}SD$) is $116.1{\pm}40.1cm^3$ sampled 11 patients. The volume including $100\%$ dose is $126.7{\pm}18.9cm^3$ on ICRU plan and $98.2{\pm}74.5cm^3$ on CTV plan. On ICRU planning, the other one's $22.0cm^3$ CTV volume who residual tumor size excess 4cm is not including $100\%$ isodose. 8 patient's $12.9{\pm}5.9cm^3$ tumor volume who residual tumor size belows 4cm irradiated $100\%$ dose. Bladder dose(recommended by ICRU 38) is $90.1{\pm}21.3\%$ on ICRU plan, $68.7{\pm}26.6\%$ on CTV plan, and rectal dose is $86.4{\pm}18.3\%,\;76.9{\pm}15.6\%$. Bladder and Rectum maximum dose is $137.2{\pm}50.1\%,\;101.1{\pm}41.8\%$ on ICRU plan, $107.6{\pm}47.9\%,\;86.9{\pm}30.8\%$ on CTV plan. Therefore CTV plan more less normal issue-irradiated dose than ICRU plan. But one patient case who residual tumor size excess 4cm, Normal tissue dose more higher than critical dose remarkably on CTV plan. $80\%$over-Irradiated rectal dose(V80rec) is $1.8{\pm}2.4cm^3$ on ICRU plan, $0.7{\pm}1.0cm^3$ on CTV plan. $80\%$over-Irradiated bladder dose(V80bla) is $12.2{\pm}8.9cm^3$ on ICRU plan, $3.5{\pm}4.1cm^3$ on CTV plan. Likewise, CTV plan more less irradiated normal tissue than ICRU38 plan. Conclusion : Although, prove effect and stability about previous ICRU plan, if we use CTV plan by CT image, we will reduce normal tissue dose and irradiated goal-dose at residual tumor on small residual tumor case. But bigger residual tumor case, we need more research about effective 3D-planning.

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Bone mineral density and nutritional state according to milk consumption in Korean postmenopausal women who drink coffee: Using the 2008~2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 폐경 후 여성 커피소비자에서 우유섭취여부에 따른 골밀도와 영양상태 비교 : 2008~2009년 국민건강영양조사 자료 이용)

  • Ryu, Sun-Hyoung;Suh, Yoon Suk
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.347-357
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study investigated bone mineral density and nutritional state according to consumption of milk in Korean postmenopausal women who drink coffee. Methods: Using the 2008~2009 Korean National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey data, a total of 1,373 postmenopausal females aged 50 yrs and over were analyzed after excluding those with diseases related to bone health. According to coffee and/or milk consumption, subjects were divided into four groups: coffee only, both coffee & milk, milk only, and none of the above. All data were processed after application of weighted values and adjustment of age, body mass index, physical activity, drinking, and smoking using a general linear model. For analysis of nutrient intake and bone density, data were additionally adjusted by total energy and calcium intake. Results: The coffee & milk group had more subjects younger than 65 yrs and higher education, urban residents, and higher income than any other group. The coffee only group showed somewhat similar characteristics as the none of the above group, which showed the highest percentage of subjects older than 65 and in a lower education and socio-economic state. Body weight, height, body mass index, and lean mass were the highest in coffee & milk group and lowest in the none of the above group. On the other hand, the milk only group showed the lowest values for body mass index and waist circumference, whereas percent body fat did not show any difference among the groups. The coffee and milk group showed the highest bone mineral density in the total femur and lumbar spine as well as the highest nutritional state and most food group intakes, followed by the milk only group, coffee only group, and none of the above group. In the assessment of osteoporosis based on T-score of bone mineral density, although not significant, the coffee and milk group and milk only group, which showed a better nutritional state, included more subjects with a normal bone density, whereas the none of the above group included more subjects with osteoporosis than any other group. Conclusion: Bone mineral density in postmenopausal women might not be affected by coffee drinking if their diets are accompanied by balanced food and nutrient intake including milk.

Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining (데이터 마이닝과 텍스트 마이닝의 통합적 접근을 통한 병사 사고예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Seungjin;Kim, Suhwan;Shin, Kyungshik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.