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A Study on the Application of Outlier Analysis for Fraud Detection: Focused on Transactions of Auction Exception Agricultural Products (부정 탐지를 위한 이상치 분석 활용방안 연구 : 농수산 상장예외품목 거래를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Kitae;Kim, Jongwoo;Park, Steve
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2014
  • To support business decision making, interests and efforts to analyze and use transaction data in different perspectives are increasing. Such efforts are not only limited to customer management or marketing, but also used for monitoring and detecting fraud transactions. Fraud transactions are evolving into various patterns by taking advantage of information technology. To reflect the evolution of fraud transactions, there are many efforts on fraud detection methods and advanced application systems in order to improve the accuracy and ease of fraud detection. As a case of fraud detection, this study aims to provide effective fraud detection methods for auction exception agricultural products in the largest Korean agricultural wholesale market. Auction exception products policy exists to complement auction-based trades in agricultural wholesale market. That is, most trades on agricultural products are performed by auction; however, specific products are assigned as auction exception products when total volumes of products are relatively small, the number of wholesalers is small, or there are difficulties for wholesalers to purchase the products. However, auction exception products policy makes several problems on fairness and transparency of transaction, which requires help of fraud detection. In this study, to generate fraud detection rules, real huge agricultural products trade transaction data from 2008 to 2010 in the market are analyzed, which increase more than 1 million transactions and 1 billion US dollar in transaction volume. Agricultural transaction data has unique characteristics such as frequent changes in supply volumes and turbulent time-dependent changes in price. Since this was the first trial to identify fraud transactions in this domain, there was no training data set for supervised learning. So, fraud detection rules are generated using outlier detection approach. We assume that outlier transactions have more possibility of fraud transactions than normal transactions. The outlier transactions are identified to compare daily average unit price, weekly average unit price, and quarterly average unit price of product items. Also quarterly averages unit price of product items of the specific wholesalers are used to identify outlier transactions. The reliability of generated fraud detection rules are confirmed by domain experts. To determine whether a transaction is fraudulent or not, normal distribution and normalized Z-value concept are applied. That is, a unit price of a transaction is transformed to Z-value to calculate the occurrence probability when we approximate the distribution of unit prices to normal distribution. The modified Z-value of the unit price in the transaction is used rather than using the original Z-value of it. The reason is that in the case of auction exception agricultural products, Z-values are influenced by outlier fraud transactions themselves because the number of wholesalers is small. The modified Z-values are called Self-Eliminated Z-scores because they are calculated excluding the unit price of the specific transaction which is subject to check whether it is fraud transaction or not. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, a prototype of fraud transaction detection system is developed using Delphi. The system consists of five main menus and related submenus. First functionalities of the system is to import transaction databases. Next important functions are to set up fraud detection parameters. By changing fraud detection parameters, system users can control the number of potential fraud transactions. Execution functions provide fraud detection results which are found based on fraud detection parameters. The potential fraud transactions can be viewed on screen or exported as files. The study is an initial trial to identify fraud transactions in Auction Exception Agricultural Products. There are still many remained research topics of the issue. First, the scope of analysis data was limited due to the availability of data. It is necessary to include more data on transactions, wholesalers, and producers to detect fraud transactions more accurately. Next, we need to extend the scope of fraud transaction detection to fishery products. Also there are many possibilities to apply different data mining techniques for fraud detection. For example, time series approach is a potential technique to apply the problem. Even though outlier transactions are detected based on unit prices of transactions, however it is possible to derive fraud detection rules based on transaction volumes.

A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

The Relics of Wae Lineage and the Keyhole-Shaped Mounds in the Honam Area (호남지역(湖南地域)의 왜계자료(倭系資料)와 전방후원형고분(前方後圓形古墳))

  • Tsuchida, Junko
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.170-203
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    • 2018
  • From the period of Japanese colonialism up to the present, the researchers of archaeology and ancient history in Korea and Japan have paid much attention to the Honam area. Recently the ruins and relics of Wae lineage are often discovered at archaeological excavation sites in this region. In particular, at least 17 keyhole-shaped mounds were confirmed. The fact that three mounds were built on one site was newly revealed. Haniwa, a representative earthenware object of the Kofun period in Japan, was discovered as well. Therefore, the study of a historical meaning of archaeological materials about Wae lineage in the Honam area thus far must be reexamined. The ruins and relics of Wae lineage in the Honam area have been studied by selecting only specific cases. I identified all the ruins and relics of Wae lineage in the Honam area and analyzed the process of their change in this paper. I reviewed the relationship between Wae and Mahan, and the purpose of their negotiation based on archaeological characteristics, changing processes, and historical records on a quarterly basis. The ruins and relics of Wae lineage have increased and widely spread since the early period of the 5th century in the Honam area. This tendency continued until the late period of the 6th century. Weapons of Wae lineage were introduced and tombs in the style of Wae were built from the late 4th century to the early period of the 5th century (TG232~TK216 period). Sueki was introduced from the middle to late period of the 5th century (TK208~TK23 period). Keyhole-shaped mounds and tombs in the style of Wae were built from the late period of the 5th century to the early period of the 6th century (TK47~MT15 period). Japanese weapons were introduced from the middle to late period of the 6th century (TK10~TK209 period). In other words, the archaeological appearance is different in each quarterly period. There was an intensive diplomatic relationship between Baekje and Wae in the TG232~TK216 period. The military might be included in a mission of Wae. The materials of Wae lineage of this period are likely to be related to this. Sueki spread to the inland part of the Honam area in the TK208~TK23 period. This Sueki tends to be excavated on advantageous sites for the accumulation and distribution of supplies. The main characters of the keyhole-shaped mounds are presumed to be a group of traders which were under the control of a certain influence in the north of Kyushu. The keyhole-shaped mounds were abruptly built at some distance from mounds of the leaders in the Honam area. Additionally, there was no special influence base to which the characters of the keyhole-shaped mounds belonged in the surroundings. However, it might have been impossible for the group of traders to build the keyhole-shaped mounds without the support from the residents at all because there was a big difference in the building technology of the keyhole-shaped mounds between Japan and the Honam area. The time of building some keyhole-shaped mounds is the same or almost the same with that of the mounds built for the regional leaders. This proves a close relationship with the residents as well. What do the archaeological materials of Wae lineage which have been used and buried mean over 200 years in the Honam area? Geumgwan Gaya, which had exported iron resources to Japan, perished in the early period of the 5th century. Instead of Gaya, the Honam area might have played an important role to supply the necessary resources to Japan. We assume that the Japanese (Wae) actively worked to acquire various resources focusing on the underground resources in the Honam area.

A Study on the Classification and Research Trends of Articles in The Korean Journal of Rural Medicine (한국농촌의학회지(韓國農村醫學會誌)에 게재된 연구논문의 분류 및 연구동향)

  • Wee, You-Mee;Kim, Suk-Il;Park, Hyang;Ryu, So-Yeon;Park, Jong;Kim, Ki-Soon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.231-244
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    • 2000
  • Classification and research trends were studied to analyze a total of 240 original articles that have been published in 34 volumes of The Korean Journal of Rural Medicine from 1976 to 1999. The results were as follows: 1. A total of 337 articles were published. Among them, 240(71.2%) articles were classified as original articles. This number has been increasing significantly over the years as the number of the articles was 13 in the 1970s, 73 in the 1980s, and 154 in the 1990s. 2. There were 10 authors in the original articles and 55(22.9%) of them were written by 3 of them. There were five research institutions involved in the articles, and 106(44.2%) of the articles were done by one research group. 3. In the original articles. 24(10.0%) were noted to be done using research funds, and only 6(2.5%) were written in English. 4. In the view of the research styles of the original articles, 115(47.9%) used analytical study, 92(38.3%) used technical study, 21(9.2%) used experimental study, and 6(2.5%) used case reports. In the 1970s, 13(100.0%) articles used technical study, and in the 1980s, 47(64.4%) used technical studies and 19(26.0%) used analytical studies. However, in the 1990s, 96(62.8%) articles used analytical studies and 32(20.9%) used technical studies. The statistical methods most commonly used in the articles were technical statistics, the ${\chi}^2$-test, and the t-test respectively. 5. On the classification into three different research fields, 105(43.8%) articles were classified as health management, 96(40.0%) as disease epidemiology, and 39(16.3%) as rural environment and rural occupational disorders. In the 1970s, 12 (92.3 %) of the articles were on disease epidemiology and 1(7.7%) on health management were published. In the 1980s, 33(45.2%) articles on disease epidemiology, 29(39.7%) on health control, and 11(15.1%) on rural environment and rural occupational disorders were recorded. In the 1990s, however, 75(48.7%) articles were on health control, 51(33.1%) on disease control, and 28(18.2%) on the rural environment and rural occupational disorders. 6. According to the research subjects in each research field, the 39 articles in rural environment and rural occupational disorders were composed of 8(20.5%) articles on pesticide intoxication, 7(17,9%) on farmer's diseases, 7(17.9%) on vinyl-house diseases, and 6(15.4%) on accidents. From a total of 96 articles in disease epidemiology 56(58.3%) articles were on parasites, 16(16.7%) on non-infectious diseases, 12(12.5) on infectious diseases. From 105 articles in health control 25(23.8%) articles were on medical care utilization patterns, 18(17.1%) on the health care delivery system, and 13(12.4%) on maternal and child health. In the analysis of the 10 most prevalent subjects dealt in the above articles, 6(46.2%) articles were on parasites and 4(30.8%) on non-infectious diseases were recorded in the 1970s. In the 1980s, 28(38.4%) were on parasites. 9(12.3%) on the health care system, 7(9.6%) on medical care utilization patterns, 5(6.8%) on maternal and child health, and 4(5.5%) were on pesticide intoxication. In the 1990s, 22(14.3%) articles were on parasites. 18(11.7%) on medical care utilization patterns, 16(10.4%) on senile health, 14(9.1%) on the health care system, 10(6.5%) on infectious diseases, arid 10(6.5%) were on non-infectious diseases. In conclusion, the research activity on rural health has been strengthened in this country because the original articles in The Korean Journal of Rural Medicine have significantly increased in the past 24 years. In the 1970s and 1980s, research on disease epidemiology was most prevalent, but in the 1990s papers on health care were most popular. In addition, the articles on parasites were most frequently published in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, showing that parasitic problem was the main theme in those eras. However, in the 1990s, it was evident that the articles on parasites were decreasing and articles on the subject of medical care utilization patterns and senile health increased. Hereafter it was expected that research on health care would be more common in rural health in Korea.

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A Study on the Meaning of Outer Space Treaty in International Law (우주조약의 국제법적 의미에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Taek
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.223-258
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    • 2013
  • 1967 Outer Space Treaty(Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies; OST) is a treaty that forms the basis of international space law. OST is based on the 1963 Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space announced by UNGA resolution. As of May 2013, 102 countries are states parties to OST, while another 27 have signed the treaty but have not completed ratification. OST explicitly claimed that the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies are the province of all mankind. Art. II of OST states that "outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means", thereby establishing res extra commercium in outer space like high seas. However 1979 Moon Agreement stipulates that "the moon and its natural resources are the Common Heritage of Mankind(CHM)." Because of the number of the parties to the Moon Agreement(13 parties) it does not affect OST. OST also established its specific treaties as a complementary means such as 1968 Rescue Agreement, 1972 Liability Convention, 1975 Registration Convention. OST bars states party to the treaty from placing nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction in orbit of Earth, installing them on the Moon or any other celestial body, or to otherwise station them in outer space. It exclusively limits the use of the Moon and other celestial bodies to peaceful purposes and expressly prohibits their use for testing weapons of any kind, conducting military maneuvers, or establishing military bases, installations, and fortifications. However OST does not prohibit the placement of conventional weapons in orbit. China and Russia submitted Draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapon in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects(PPWT) on the Conference on Disarmament in 2008. USA disregarded PPWT on the ground that there are no arms race in outer space. OST does not have some articles in relation to current problems such as space debris, mechanisms of the settlement of dispute arising from state activities in outer space in specific way. COPUOS established "UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines" based on "IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines" and ILA proposed "International Instrument on the Protection of the Environment from Damage Caused by Space Debris" for space debris problems and Permanent Court of Arbitration(PCA) established "Optional Rules for Arbitration of Disputes Relating to Outer Space Activities" and ILA proposed "1998 Taipei Draft Convention on the Settlement of Space Law Dispute" for the settlement of dispute problems. Although OST has shortcomings in some articles, it is very meaningful in international law in considering the establishment of basic principles governing the activities of States in the exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. OST established the principles governing the activities of states in the exploration and use of outer space as customary law and jus cogens in international law as follows; the exploration and use of outer space shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries and shall be the province of all mankind; outer space shall be free for exploration and use by all States; outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means. The principles of global public interest in outer space imposes international obligations erga omnes applicable to all States. This principles find significant support in legal norms dealing with following points: space activities as the "province of all mankind"; obligation to cooperate; astronauts as envoys of mankind; avoidance of harmful contamination; space activities by States, private entities and intergovernmental organisations; absolute liability for damage cauesd by certain space objects; prohibition of weapons in space and militarization of the celestial bodies; duty of openness and transparency; universal application of the international space regime.

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