• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2011.05a
• /
• pp.364-364
• /
• 2011

최근 기후변화에 의한 가뭄과 홍수의 발생빈도가 증가하고 있는 추세이며 기후변화에 의한 재해는 국민 생활에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있어 전 세계 여러 나라에서는 기후변화에 대한 연구를 활발하게 진행하고 있는 실정이다. 특히 도시유역의 경우 인구와 재산이 밀집해 있기 때문에 기후변화에 의한 수자원의 영향평가나 극한홍수 등의 자연재해에 대비한 홍수방어 적응대책에 대한 연구가 절실히 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 도시유역을 중심으로 KMA RCM의 기후변화 시나리오 분석을 통한 미래 확률강수량을 분석하는 시나리오적 방법과 과거 강수 특성과 경향성을 분석하여 비정상성 빈도해석을 통한 미래 확률강수량을 분석하는 비시나리오적 방법을 통한 도시유역의 기후변화 영향을 고려한 확률강수량을 산정하고자 한다. 또한 향후 발생할 수 있는 강우의 불확실성 분석을 통한 미래확률강수량 산정을 실시하고 도시유역의 IDF곡선을 제시함 으로써 기후변화영향을 고려한 도시유역의 수자원 및 물 수요 관리와 제도개선에 활용하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2017.05a
• /
• pp.342-342
• /
• 2017

기후변화로 인한 극한기상의 강도와 빈도가 증가하고 있어 국가 물안보와 수자원 관리에 어려움을 겪고 있다. 특히 가뭄은 음용수 부족과 관개용수 및 발전용수 부족 등 사회, 경제, 환경 전반에 걸쳐 미치는 피해 영향의 범위가 크다. 가뭄으로 인한 피해감소와 대응 및 대책 전략 수립에 있어서 일반적으로 기상학적 가뭄지수 SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)을 많이 사용하고 있다. SPI는 누적강수량 자료를 이용하며 누적강수 기간(월)에 따라 SPI3, SPI6 등으로 평가한다. 이 방법은 누적강우량을 감마함수에 적합하고 다시 누가표준정규분포에 투영함으로써 가뭄심도를 평가한다. 그러나 분포의 꼬리 부분에 해당하는 가뭄값들의 정량적 평가가 어려우며 강우자료가 가지는 분산의 특성을 반영하지 못하는 단점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄의 정량적 평가와 가뭄자료 자체의 분산의 특성을 고려한 정량적 표준가뭄지수(QSPI:Quantitative Standardized Precipitation Index)를 개발, 가뭄을 평가하고 SPI와 비교 분석 하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.489-499
• /
• 2009

It is quite difficult to predict the flexural strength of post-tensioned members with unbonded tendons (unbonded posttensioned members, UPT members) because of debonding behavior between concrete and prestressing tendons, which is different from that with bonded tendons. Despite many previous researches, our understanding on the flexural strength of UPT members is still insufficient, and thus, national codes use different methods to calculate the strength, which quite often give very different results. Therefore, this paper reviews various existing methods, and aims at proposing an improved rational strength model for UPT flexural members having better accuracy. Additionally, a database containing a large number of test data on UPT flexural members has been established and used for verification of the proposed flexural strength model. The analysis results show that the proposed method provides much better accuracy than many existing methods including the rigid-body model that utilizes the assumption of concentrated deformation and plastic hinge length, and that it also gives proper consideration on the effects of primary parameters such as reinforcement ratio, loading pattern, concrete strength, etc. Especially, the proposed method also well predicts the ultimate stress of unbonded tendons of over-reinforced members, which are often possible in construction fields, and high strength concrete members.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.393-407
• /
• 2012

This study suggests the results of temporal and spatial variations for rainfall data in the Korean Peninsula. We got the index of the rainfall amount, frequency and extreme indices from 65 weather stations. The results could be easily understood by drawing the graph, and the Mann-Kendall trend analysis was also used to determine the tendency (up & downward/no trend) of rainfall and temperature where the trend could not be clear. Moreover, by using the FARD, frequency probability rainfalls could be calculated for 100 and 200 years and then compared each other value through the moment method, maximum likelihood method and probability weighted moments. The Average Rainfall Index (ARI) which is meant comprehensive rainfalls risk for the flood could be obtained from calculating an arithmetic mean of the RI for Amount (RIA), RI for Extreme (RIE), and RI for Frequency (RIF) and as well as the characteristics of rainfalls have been mainly classified into Amount, Extremes, and Frequency. As a result, these each Average Rainfall Indices could be increased respectively into 22.3%, 26.2%, and 5.1% for a recent decade. Since this study showed the recent climate change trend in detail, it will be useful data for the research of climate change adaptation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.49 no.4
• /
• pp.327-333
• /
• 2016

Due to climate changes accelerated by global warming, South Korea has experienced regional climate variations as well as increasing severities and frequencies of extreme weather. The precipitation in South Korea during the summer season in 2013 was concentrated mainly in the central region; the maximum number of rainy days were recorded in the central region while the southern region had the minimum number of rainy days. As a result, much attention has been paid to the importance of flood control due to damage caused by spatiotemporal intensive rainfalls. In this study, forecast rainfall data was used for rapid responses to prevent disasters during flood seasons. For this purpose, the applicability of numerical weather forecast data was analyzed using the ground observation rainfall and inflow rate. Correlation coefficient, maximum rainfall intensity percent error and total rainfall percent error were used for the quantitative comparison of ground observation rainfall data. In addition, correlation coefficient, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, and standardized RMSE were used for the quantitative comparison of inflow rate. As a result of the simulation, the correlation coefficient up to six hours was 0.7 or higher, indicating a high correlation. Furthermore, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was positive until six hours, confirming the applicability of forecast rainfall.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.615-626
• /
• 2013

In this study, spatial patterns of the urban flood vulnerability index in Seoul are examined by considering climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability associated with floodings for recent 5 year (2006~2010) period by the smallest administrative unit called Dong. According to the results of correlation analyses based on the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)'s vulnerability model, among many variables associated with urban flooding, rainwater tank capacity, 1-day maximum precipitation and flood pumping station capacity have statistically-significant, and relatively-high correlations with the number of flood damage in Seoul. The flood vulnerability map demonstrates that the extensive areas along Anyang and Joongnang streams show relatively high flood vulnerability in Seoul due to high sensitivity. Especially in case of Joongnang stream areas, climatic factors also contribute to the increase of flood vulnerability. At local scales, several Dong areas in Gangdong-gu and Songpa-gu also show high flood vulnerability due to low adaptability, while those in Gangnam-gu do due to high sensibility and climate factor such as extreme rainfall events. These results derived from the flood vulnerability map by Dong unit can be utilized as primary data in establishing the adaptation, management and proactive policies for flooding prevention within the urban areas in more detail.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.113-125
• /
• 2011

In this study, recent trends of the annual precipitation, the annual maximum precipitation of different durations and the rain days over several thresholds(i.e. 0, 10, 20, 40, 60 and 80 mm/day) according to the different local features were analyzed using daily precipitation data of 59 weather stations between 1973 and 2009. To analyze the variability according to the regional characteristics, 59 weather stations were classified by elevations, latitudes, longitudes, river basins, inland or shore(east sea, south sea, west sea) area and the level of urbanization. Results demonstrated that overall trend of variables increases except rain day. Results according to the regional characteristics showed that the increase trend becomes stronger with elevation increase. The increase trend of Han river basin is largest and that of Youngsan river basin is smallest. Also the increase trend becomes stronger with latitude increase and that of East coast is larger than that of South coast since it may be caused by the regional difference of elevation. The increase trend of urban area is larger than that of rural area. Overall trend showed that increase trend becomes stronger with elevation and latitude increase.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.59 no.4
• /
• pp.65-74
• /
• 2017

North Korea is one of the high vulnerable countries facing the threat of natural disaster and has experienced more frequent disasters in recent years. These disasters have significantly led to food shortages and large reductions in crop yields. In 2015, both North Korean officials and international agencies had identified the extreme drought event, the worst in one hundred years according to the North Korean government. The objective of this study was an assessment of the extreme drought events in 2014~2015, and to apply climatic drought indices for drought monitoring in North Korea. Characteristics of the extreme drought in North Korea are examined by using the weekly-based Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The drought characteristics illustrated by the SPEI results are compared with a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) results and drought impact information to understand how these indices can explain the drought conditions within the country. These results demonstrated that the SPEI could be an effective tool to provide improved spatial and temporal drought conditions to inform management decisions for drought policy.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.323-334
• /
• 2003

For performance-based design using nonlinear static analysis, it is required to predict the inelastic behavior of structural members accurately. In the present study, a nonlinear numerical analysis was peformed to develop the method describing the moment-curvature relationship of structural wall with boundary confinement. Through the numerical analysis, variations of behavioral characteristics and failure mechanism with the arrangement of vertical reinforcement and the length of boundary confinement were studied. According to the analysis, the maximum moment-carrying capacity of structural walls with adequately confined boundary elements is developed at the moment the unconfined concrete reaches the ultimate compressive strain. Walls with flexural re-bars concentrated on the boundaries fails in a brittle manner. As vortical re-bars in the web increases, the brittle failure is prevented and a ductile failure occurs. Based on the findings, moment-curvature curves for walls with a variety of re-bar arrangement were developed. According to the proposed relationships, deformability of the structural walls wth boundary confinement increases as the compressive strength of the confined concrete increases compared to the applied compressive force.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
• /
• v.42 no.9
• /
• pp.795-801
• /
• 2014

STEP Cube Lab. classified as a pico-satellite has been being developed by SSTL(Space Technology Synthesis Laboratory) in Chosun University. Its main mission objective is to perform the on-orbit verification of core space technologies, which will be the potential candidates for future space missions. In this paper, to guarantee successful mission operation of the cube satellite under extremely severe space thermal environment condition, the system level thermal design and analysis has been performed. The effectiveness of the design has been verified through on-orbit thermal analysis of cube satellite.