• Title/Summary/Keyword: 극한 강수

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Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought using Potential Drought Hazard Map (가뭄우심도를 활용한 가뭄의 시공간적 분포특성분석)

  • Lee, Joo Heon;Cho, Kyeong Joon;Kim, Chang Joo;Park, Min Jae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.10
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    • pp.983-995
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    • 2012
  • In this study, it was intended to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of historical drought events occurred in Korea by way of drought frequency analysis using SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), and Drought spell was executed to estimate drought frequency as per drought severity and regions. Also, SDF (severity-duration-frequency) curves were prepared per each weather stations to estimate spatial distribution characteristics for the severe drought areas of Korea, and Potential Drought Hazard Map was prepared based on the derived SDF curves. Drought frequency analysis per drought stage revealed that severe drought as well as extreme drought frequency were prominently high at Geum River, Nakdong River, and Seomjin River basin as can be seen from SDF curves, and drought severity was found as severer per each drought return period in the data located at Geum River, Nakdong River, and Seomjin River basins as compared with that of Seoul weather station at Han River basin. In the Potential Drought Hazard Map, it showed that Geum River, Seomjin River, and Yeongsan River basins were drought vulnerable areas as compared to upper streams of Nakdong River basin and Han River basin, and showed similar result in drought frequency per drought stage. Drought was occurred frequently during spring seasons with tendency of frequent short drought spell as indicated in Potential Drought Hazard Map of different season.

Determination of drought events considering the possibility of relieving drought and estimation of design drought severity (가뭄해갈 가능성을 고려한 가뭄사상의 결정 및 확률 가뭄심도 산정)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Yu, Ji Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to propose a new method to determine the drought event and the design drought severity. In order to define a drought event from precipitation data, theory of run was applied with the cumulative rainfall deficit. When we have a large amount of rainfall over the threshold level, in this study, we compare with the previous cumulative rainfall deficit to determine whether the drought is relieved or not. The recurrence characteristics of the drought severity on the specific duration was analyzed by the conditional bivariate copula function and confidence intervals were estimated to quantify uncertainties. The methodology was applied to Seoul station with the historical dataset (1909~2015). It was observed that the past droughts considered as extreme hydrological events had from 10 to 50 years of return period. On the other hand, the current on-going drought event started from 2013 showed the significantly higher return period. It is expected that the result of this study may be utilized as the reliable criteria based on the concept of return period for the drought contingency plan.

Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 강수량 변화에 따른 미래 PMPs의 전망)

  • Lee, Okjeong;Park, Myungwoo;Lee, Jeonghoon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2016
  • Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and $25km^2$ was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.

Performance Evaluation of Snow Detection Using Himawari-8 AHI Data (Himawari-8 AHI 적설 탐지의 성능 평가)

  • Jin, Donghyun;Lee, Kyeong-sang;Seo, Minji;Choi, Sungwon;Seong, Noh-hun;Lee, Eunkyung;Han, Hyeon-gyeong;Han, Kyung-soo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_1
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    • pp.1025-1032
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    • 2018
  • Snow Cover is a form of precipitation that is defined by snow on the surface and is the single largest component of the cryosphere that plays an important role in maintaining the energy balance between the earth's surface and the atmosphere. It affects the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. However, since snow cover is mainly distributed in area where human access is difficult, snow cover detection using satellites is actively performed, and snow cover detection in forest area is an important process as well as distinguishing between cloud and snow. In this study, we applied the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to the geostationary satellites for the snow detection of forest area in existing polar orbit satellites. On the rest of the forest area, the snow cover detection using $R_{1.61{\mu}m}$ anomaly technique and NDSI was performed. As a result of the indirect validation using the snow cover data and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) snow cover data, the probability of detection (POD) was 99.95 % and the False Alarm Ratio (FAR) was 16.63 %. We also performed qualitative validation using the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) RGB image. The result showed that the areas detected by the VIIRS Snow Cover miss pixel are mixed with the area detected by the research false pixel.

Prediction of future hydrologic variables of Asia using RCP scenario and global hydrology model (RCP 시나리오 및 전지구 수문 모형을 활용한 아시아 미래 수문인자 예측)

  • Kim, Dawun;Kim, Daeun;Kang, Seok-koo;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.551-563
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    • 2016
  • According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.

Incidence of Fusarium Wilt of Sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) in Relation to Air Temperature (참깨 시들음병(病) 발병(發病)과 재배기간중(栽培期間中) 온도(溫度)와의 관계(關係))

  • KANG, S.W.;CHO, D.J.;Lee, Y.S.
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.24 no.3 s.64
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    • pp.123-127
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    • 1985
  • Incidence of the Fusarium wilt caused by F. oxysporum f. sp. vasinfectum of sesame (var. Kwangsan) was remarkably influenced by seeding date and mean air temperature in the field of two or three year's continuous cropping with sesame in 1983 and 1985. Sesame were seeded on six different dates from April 20 to July 5. Air temperature was checked daily at the meteorological station near the experimental field. Low($16{\sim}20^{\circ}C$) and high temperature($20{\sim}25^{\circ}C$) periods were provisionally devided, based on every ten-day mean daily temperature during field experiment for last ten years, which corresponded to before and after June 15 in Jinju, Gyeong-nam. Infection rates were 83.7%, 68.2% and 59.4% in the plants grown for 55 days (seeding date: April 20), 40 days(May 5) and 25 days(May 20) under low temperature. On the other hand, infection rates were below 3% in those plots seeded during high temperature period. The longer the growth period exposed to low temperature, the higher was infection rates. It is interesting to note that 40 days old seedling or older are prone to severe infection compared to the younger ones, in higher temperature of $20{\sim}25^{\circ}C$. Therefore, seedlings in vegetative growth stage are less prone to infection than these in reproductive growth stage. The result showed that air temperature during sesame growth was one of the most important factor affecting the incidence of Fusarium wilt. This suggested that sesame crop, which is of tropical origin, has been predisposed to Fusarium wilt, when the plants were exposed to low temperature of $16{\sim}20^{\circ}C$.

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