• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.63-83
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• 2019

Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.15-26
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• 1994

To understand the relative contribution of varietal and environmental variation on various grain quality components in rice, grain appearance, milling recovery, several physicochemical properties of rice grain and texture or palatability of cooked rice for milled rice materials of seven cultivars(five japonica & two Tongil-type), produced at six locations of the middle and southern plain area of Korea in 1989, were evaluated and analyzed the obtained data. Highly significant varietal variations were detected in all grain quality components of the rice materials and marked locational variations with about 14-54% portion of total variation were recognized in grain appearance, milling recovery, alkali digestibility, protein content, K /Mg ratio, gelatinization temperature, breakdown and setback viscosities. Variations of variety x location interaction were especially large in overall palatability score of cooked rice and consistency or set- back viscosities of amylograph. Tongil-type cultivars showed poor marketing quality, lower milling recovery, slightly lower alkali digestibility and amylose content, a little higher protein content and K /Mg ratio, relatively higher peak, breakdown and consistency viscosities, significantly lower setback viscosity, and more undesirable palatability of cooked rice compared with japonica rices. The japonica rice varieties possessing good palatability of cooked rice were slightly low in protein content and a little high in K /Mg ratio and stickiness /hardness ratio of cooked rice. Rice 1000-kernel weight was significantly heavier in rice materials produced in Iri lowland compared with other locations. Milling recovery from rough to brown rice and ripening quality were lowest in Milyang late-planted rice while highest in Iri lowland and Gyehwa reclaimed-land rice. Amylose content of milled rice was about 1% lower in Gyehwa rice compared with other locations. Protein content of polished rice was about 1% lower in rice materials of middle plain area than those of southern plain regions. K/Mg ratio of milled rice was lowest in Iri rice while highest in Milyang rice. Alkali digestibility was highest in Milyang rice while lowest in Honam plain rice, but the temperature of gelatinization initiation of rice flour in amylograph was lowest in Suwon and Iri rices while highest in Milyang rice. Breakdown viscosity was lowest in Milyang rice and next lower in Ichon lowland rice while highest in Gyehwa and Iri rices, and setback viscosity was the contrary tendency. The stickiness/hardness ratio of cooked rice was slightly lower in southern-plain rices than in middle-plain ones, and the palatability of cooked rice was best in Namyang reclaimed-land rice and next better with the order of Suwon$\geq$Iri$\geq$Ichon$\geq$Gyehwa$\geq$Milyang rices. The rice materials can be classified genotypically into two ecotypes of japonica and Tongil-type rice groups, and environmentally into three regions of Milyang, middle and Honam lowland by the distribution on the plane of 1st and 2nd principal components contracted from eleven grain quality properties closely associated with palatability of cooked rice by principal component analysis.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.107-129
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• 2022

It is important to preempt new technology because the technology competition is getting much tougher. Stakeholders conduct exploration activities continuously for new technology preoccupancy at the right time. Gartner's Hype Cycle has significant implications for stakeholders. The Hype Cycle is a expectation graph for new technologies which is combining the technology life cycle (S-curve) with the Hype Level. Stakeholders such as R&D investor, CTO(Chef of Technology Officer) and technical personnel are very interested in Gartner's Hype Cycle for new technologies. Because high expectation for new technologies can bring opportunities to maintain investment by securing the legitimacy of R&D investment. However, contrary to the high interest of the industry, the preceding researches faced with limitations aspect of empirical method and source data(news, academic papers, search traffic, patent etc.). In this study, we focused on two research questions. The first research question was 'Is there a difference in the characteristics of the network structure at each stage of the hype cycle?'. To confirm the first research question, the structural characteristics of each stage were confirmed through the component cohesion size. The second research question is 'Is there a pattern of diffusion at each stage of the hype cycle?'. This research question was to be solved through centralization index and network density. The centralization index is a concept of variance, and a higher centralization index means that a small number of nodes are centered in the network. Concentration of a small number of nodes means a star network structure. In the network structure, the star network structure is a centralized structure and shows better diffusion performance than a decentralized network (circle structure). Because the nodes which are the center of information transfer can judge useful information and deliver it to other nodes the fastest. So we confirmed the out-degree centralization index and in-degree centralization index for each stage. For this purpose, we confirmed the structural features of the community and the expectation diffusion patterns using Social Network Serice(SNS) data in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021'. Twitter data for 30 technologies (excluding four technologies) listed in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021' were analyzed. Analysis was performed using R program (4.1.1 ver) and Cyram Netminer. From October 31, 2021 to November 9, 2021, 6,766 tweets were searched through the Twitter API, and converting the relationship user's tweet(Source) and user's retweets (Target). As a result, 4,124 edgelists were analyzed. As a reult of the study, we confirmed the structural features and diffusion patterns through analyze the component cohesion size and degree centralization and density. Through this study, we confirmed that the groups of each stage increased number of components as time passed and the density decreased. Also 'Innovation Trigger' which is a group interested in new technologies as a early adopter in the innovation diffusion theory had high out-degree centralization index and the others had higher in-degree centralization index than out-degree. It can be inferred that 'Innovation Trigger' group has the biggest influence, and the diffusion will gradually slow down from the subsequent groups. In this study, network analysis was conducted using social network service data unlike methods of the precedent researches. This is significant in that it provided an idea to expand the method of analysis when analyzing Gartner's hype cycle in the future. In addition, the fact that the innovation diffusion theory was applied to the Gartner's hype cycle's stage in artificial intelligence can be evaluated positively because the Gartner hype cycle has been repeatedly discussed as a theoretical weakness. Also it is expected that this study will provide a new perspective on decision-making on technology investment to stakeholdes.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.175-196
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• 2022

Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.19-42
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• 2012

Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.227-252
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• 2018

The evolution of instant communication has mirrored the development of the Internet and messenger applications are among the most representative manifestations of instant communication technologies. In messenger applications, senders use emoticons to supplement the emotions conveyed in the text of their messages. The fact that communication via messenger applications is not face-to-face makes it difficult for senders to communicate their emotions to message recipients. Emoticons have long been used as symbols that indicate the moods of speakers. However, at present, emoticon-use is evolving into a means of conveying the psychological states of consumers who want to express individual characteristics and personality quirks while communicating their emotions to others. The fact that companies like KakaoTalk, Line, Apple, etc. have begun conducting emoticon business and sales of related content are expected to gradually increase testifies to the significance of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, despite the development of emoticons themselves and the growth of the emoticon market, no suitable emoticon recommendation system has yet been developed. Even KakaoTalk, a messenger application that commands more than 90% of domestic market share in South Korea, just grouped in to popularity, most recent, or brief category. This means consumers face the inconvenience of constantly scrolling around to locate the emoticons they want. The creation of an emoticon recommendation system would improve consumer convenience and satisfaction and increase the sales revenue of companies the sell emoticons. To recommend appropriate emoticons, it is necessary to quantify the emotions that the consumer sees and emotions. Such quantification will enable us to analyze the characteristics and emotions felt by consumers who used similar emoticons, which, in turn, will facilitate our emoticon recommendations for consumers. One way to quantify emoticons use is metadata-ization. Metadata-ization is a means of structuring or organizing unstructured and semi-structured data to extract meaning. By structuring unstructured emoticon data through metadata-ization, we can easily classify emoticons based on the emotions consumers want to express. To determine emoticons' precise emotions, we had to consider sub-detail expressions-not only the seven common emotional adjectives but also the metaphorical expressions that appear only in South Korean proved by previous studies related to emotion focusing on the emoticon's characteristics. We therefore collected the sub-detail expressions of emotion based on the "Shape", "Color" and "Adumbration". Moreover, to design a highly accurate recommendation system, we considered both emotion-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional indexes. We then identified 14 features of emoticon-technical indexes and selected 36 emotional adjectives. The 36 emotional adjectives consisted of contrasting adjectives, which we reduced to 18, and we measured the 18 emotional adjectives using 40 emoticon sets randomly selected from the top-ranked emoticons in the KakaoTalk shop. We surveyed 277 consumers in their mid-twenties who had experience purchasing emoticons; we recruited them online and asked them to evaluate five different emoticon sets. After data acquisition, we conducted a factor analysis of emoticon-emotional factors. We extracted four factors that we named "Comic", Softness", "Modernity" and "Transparency". We analyzed both the relationship between indexes and consumer attitude and the relationship between emoticon-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional factors. Through this process, we confirmed that the emoticon-technical indexes did not directly affect consumer attitudes but had a mediating effect on consumer attitudes through emoticon-emotional factors. The results of the analysis revealed the mechanism consumers use to evaluate emoticons; the results also showed that consumers' emoticon-technical indexes affected emoticon-emotional factors and that the emoticon-emotional factors affected consumer satisfaction. We therefore designed the emoticon recommendation system using only four emoticon-emotional factors; we created a recommendation method to calculate the Euclidean distance from each factors' emotion. In an attempt to increase the accuracy of the emoticon recommendation system, we compared the emotional patterns of selected emoticons with the recommended emoticons. The emotional patterns corresponded in principle. We verified the emoticon recommendation system by testing prediction accuracy; the predictions were 81.02% accurate in the first result, 76.64% accurate in the second, and 81.63% accurate in the third. This study developed a methodology that can be used in various fields academically and practically. We expect that the novel emoticon recommendation system we designed will increase emoticon sales for companies who conduct business in this domain and make consumer experiences more convenient. In addition, this study served as an important first step in the development of an intelligent emoticon recommendation system. The emotional factors proposed in this study could be collected in an emotional library that could serve as an emotion index for evaluation when new emoticons are released. Moreover, by combining the accumulated emotional library with company sales data, sales information, and consumer data, companies could develop hybrid recommendation systems that would bolster convenience for consumers and serve as intellectual assets that companies could strategically deploy.