• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.515-523
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• 2013

The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

To detail a picture of the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation in terms of cultural services aspects of Ecosystem Services, Sunghaksan(Mt.), Hwawangsan(Mt.) and Jaeyaksan(Mt.), which are known for their Miscanthus colonies, were chosen as survey sites. After examining the willingness to pay for the value of Miscanthus landscape conservation by targeting of visitors each study area, the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation per capita aspects was evaluated using Contingent Valuation Methods(CVM) from the collected willingness to pay for economic value of Miscanthus scenery by site. After using the target Chi-square test to analyze the differences among each site, the correlation between specific variables was investigated. Willingness to pay for the Miscanthus landscape conservation was found to increase as the respondents' income became higher. The more environmental conservation efforts were being made in their daily life, the higher willingness to pay was for Miscanthus landscape conservation. Likewise in other studies, the higher the bid was, the less willingness to pay was. The per capita assessment of the Miscanthus landscape value of the logit models in the dual estimated using the factor extracted with each of the injected variable bounds was estimated for Seunghaksan (\38,277), Hwawangsan(\38,648), and Jaeyaksan(\48,891). The average of the three sites was estimated to be \38,679. Assessment of the economic value of these Miscanthus landscape sites saw high willingness to pay by visitors when compared to the current market price inflation, such as watching movies or amusement park admission, which could mean that visitors recognize the value of ecosystem services from nature in evaluating the Miscanthus landscape.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.178-184
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• 2014

In this study, monitoring method which is more economic and easier in maintenance comparing to existing monitoring system was scrutinized for application to sewer intercepting chamber of 10.2 ha basin area by estimating CSOs (Combined Sewer Overflows) quantity and quality with 2 rainfall events using electrical conductivity data and civil research model. The result showed that determination coefficient of flow estimation by EC (Electrical Conductivity) dilution ratio and observed data was over 0.86 for all cases and the accuracy of estimation was improved from 0.5 to 0.8 for determination coefficient ($R^2$) and from 54.1% to 68.5% for accumulation frequency of relative error by considering antecedent dry days and rainfall duration. CSOs water quality estimation results by civil research model showed that determination coefficients were 0.64~0.97 for BOD and 0.70~0.95 for SS.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.123-131
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• 2011

Characteristics of sea surface temperature(SST) difference around Gwang-Yang steel Mill where can affect marine ecosystem in Gwang-Yang bay using 25 collected Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal infrared band data from 2000 to 2010. To analyze accuracy of SST from the Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal infrared image， satellite-induced SST was verfied by compared Yeo-Su tide station and Landsat thermal image. As a result, SST from Landsat-7 ETM+ is $1.22^{\circ}C$ lower than sea temperature from Yeo-Su tide station and correlation coefficient resulted in above 0.991 which means that correlation coefficient between Landsat image temperature and field sea temperature is relatively high. Five regions were selected to analyze sea surface temperature between near Gwang-Yang steel mill and the open sea and analyzed timeseries of sea surface temperature seasonally and regionally. Moreover, the additional analysis has been carried out by comparing the averaged temperatures of Gwang-Yang and Soon-Cheon bays using the dataset over a year.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.109 no.3
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• pp.291-299
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to propose the most cost-effective sampling method, by analyzing the cost of forest resource investigation per sampling method for the planned harvesting area of in Chunyang-myeon, Byeonghwa-gun, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Korea. For this study, three sampling methods were selected: random sampling method, systematic sampling method, and line transect method. For each method, sample size, hourly wage, number of sample points, survey time, travel time, the sample error rate of the estimated average volume, and the desired sampling error rate were used to calculate the cost of forest resource inventories. Thus, 10 sampling points were extracted for each sampling method, and the factors required for cost analysis were calculated via a field survey. As a result, the field survey cost per ha using the random sampling method was found to be have the lowest cost, regardless of the desired sampling error rate, followed by the systematic sampling method, and the line transect method.

• KOMUNHWA
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• no.70
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• pp.109-132
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• 2007

Taking the Yosu Peninsula where prestige goods were prevalent and more dolmen were excavated and surveyed than other regions as object of the research, this dissertation investigated the hierarchy of dolmen society. The dolmen groups were excavated and surveyed at some 20 positions in Yosu Peninsula Analyzing the number, weight of upper stone, location, the buried relics of dolmen, the hierarchy for each dolmen group can be summarized as follows. It seems that the large group with a lot of dolmen and big upper stone which is located on the plane with stream or on the lower part of hill might be the central group with abundant buried relics. However, the size of individual upper stone does not coincide with buried relics sometimes. Thus, it is required to review the entirety of dolmen group rather than individual upper stone in the relation between the scale of upper stone and buried relics. Then the scale of tomb is proportionate to the prestige goods. Meanwhile, the discrepancy between dolmens can be verified by the difference among upper stone, tomb, burial accessories, etc in the unit dolmen group. Since dolmen is the tomb of some inhabitants in the Bronze Age, the existence of stone coffin tomb with buried bronze sword, jade or stone sword compared to the stone coffin with no relics means that there was powerful representative of one generation even in one kindred group on the basis of wealth or authority. It can be concluded that the upper stone or large tomb or prestige goods among the persons buried in dolmen were fixed as high class, those with relatively small stone coffin with no or scanty burial accessories were fixed as medium class and multitudinous class who were not buried in dolmen were fixed as low class. Therefore, the dolmen society in Yosu Peninsula shows that there was division of class in the unit dolmen group as well as hierarchy in the group.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.169-182
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• 2017

This research reviews regulations on logistics/transport industry and attempts to quantify the effects of regulation mitigation on GDP per capita. South Korea's transport industry has been gradually expanding, however, the industrial structure is still short rooted. In 2014, average number of hours worked is 5th highest and wage margin 12th smallest out of 18 industries. Furthermore, the regulations for this industry appear to be stricter than those of other industries. OECD's logistics/transport industry regulatory index for South Korea has been decreasing for the last 40 years but still exceeds those of EU, Japan, US, and other countries. This paper provides supporting reasons for regulatory reforms by analyzing the ripple effects on real GDP. Factors such as the ratio of trade among GDP, the enrollment rate to primary school, energy usage per capita, and population are controlled in the fixed-effect model. Estimation results showed that 1 unit decrease in transport/logistics regulatory index is correlated with 8.1% increase of the real GDP per capita, that is, 10% of deregulation is expected to yield 2.16% increase in GDP per capita. Thus, it is expected that mitigating regulations on market entries, price determination, ownership structures of network industry, vertical integrations can improve the economy of South Korea.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.29-51
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• 2022

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) designated the Emission Control Area (ECA) in Northern Europe to reduce the NOx and SOx emissions from ships in the coastal areas. This study used Network slack-based measure (SBM) Data Envelopment Model (DEM) and Bootstrop Truncated Regression (BTR) model to analyze the ECA's impact on ferry companies' financial performances based on the financial data from eight ferry carriers in Northern Europe, the Mediterranean and North America from 2004 to 2017. To alleviate the problem of arbitrary variable selection in DEA, the variable selection criteria proposed by Dyson et al. (2001) were applied; the size of the company was considered through the Network SBM DEA model; and the company's profit-generating process was divided into stages to measure financial performance in more detail. In addition, the BTR model was applied to derive results that minimize the bias of the data. The study found that ECA regulations did not always negatively affect the shipping companies' financial performance. Rather, a steady increase in efficiency was observed for Northern European ferry companies which were subject to the strongest regulations. For North American ferry companies, government subsidies were found to have a significant impact on efficiency, and relatively small impact on efficiency due to the ECA and oil prices. For the Mediterranean ferry companies, efficiency values have decreased since the implementation of ECA regulation despite the lowest level of regulation in the region.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.539-544
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• 2023

The subject of this study is the Maae Buddha statue in granodiorite of the Mesozoic Cretaceous period, which is concerned about stability as a standing stone cultural property located in ◯◯-dong, Gyeongsangbuk-do. For stability analysis, three-dimensional face mapping, geological properties of joints, three-dimensional scanning, ultrasonic velocity, polarization microscopy, electron microscopy analysis and XRD analysis were performed. In addition, the safety factor of the Maaebul was calculated by analyzing the damage status investigation, stereographic projection analysis, rock classification, and limit equilibrium analysis. The types and scales of damage and possible collapse by section depend on the degree of weathering of the rock and the orientation and characteristics of the joints, but wedge-failure and toppling-failure are expected to be small-scale. The safety factor of Maaebul in dry and wet conditions is less than 1.2, so stability is concerned. The types of damage were mainly observed, such as exfoliation, cracking, granular decomposition, and vegetation growth. The Maaebul rock is granodiorite, and the surface discoloration materials are K, Fe, and Mg. The 4 sets of joints are developed, J1 is tensile joint and the others are shear joint. The uniaxial compressive strength estimated by ultrasonic exploration is 514kgf/cm2, which corresponds to most soft rocks and some weathered rocks. Rock classification(RMR) is estimated to be grade 5, very poor rock mass. These technique along with the existing methods of safety diagnosis of cultural properties are expected to be a reasonable tool for objective interpretation and stability review of stone cultural properties.