• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.93-106
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• 2020

Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.

• 해운
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• no.8 s.7
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• pp.54-55
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• 2004

• 해운
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• no.7 s.6
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• pp.54-55
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• 2004

• 해운
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• no.5 s.4
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• pp.54-56
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• 2004

• 해운
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• no.6 s.5
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• pp.54-55
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• 2004

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.53-68
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to develop a new Korean container freight index by applying weights based on the global trade volume. To achieve this, it was decided to determine the conditions such as establishment of routes and regions, weighting of trade volumes which based on prior research and expert advice. Based on this, the individual index and regional index and composite index were calculated, and then reliability and statistical significance of the index was verified through correlation analysis and Granger causality analyses. This study suggest the following findings, through the development of the Korean container freight index. Firstly, Korean freight index reflects the overall market situation and can be used as a benchmark for determining the conditions of each market, consisting of criteria of region and routes. Secondly, it is possible to reflect the market conditions in which actual freight differences exist, since it has developed separate indexes for export and import routes. Finally, The composite index is the only index that reflects not only exports and imports but also 27 individual routes based on Busan, which is the most comprehensive indicator of the korean container freight market.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.107-120
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• 2019

Crude oil is a resource that is being used as a raw material in major industries, representing the price of the raw material market. It is also an important element that affects the shipping market in terms of fuel costs for freight vessels. As a result, crude oil and freight rates are closely related. Therefore, from January 2009 to June 2019, this study analyzed the dependency structure between oil price (WTI) and freight rates (BDI, BCI, BPI, BSI, and BHI) using daily data. The main results are summarized as follows. First, according to the copula results, survival Gumbel copula in WTI-BDI, Clayton copula in WTI-BCI, Survival Joe copula in WTI-BPI, Joe copula in WTI-BSI, and survival Gumbel copula in WTI-BHI were selected as the best-fitted model. Second, looking at Kendall's tau correlation, there is a positive correlation between BDI and oil price. Furthermore, freight rate index (BCI, BPI, BSI) and oil price show positive dependencies. In particular, the strongest dependence was found in BCI and oil price returns. However, BHI and oil price show a negative dependency. Third, looking at the tail-dependency structure, a pair between oil price and BDI, BCI showed a lower tail-dependency. The pair between oil price and BSI showed the upper tail-dependency.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.127-163
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• 2023

The objective of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover effects among BDI, CCFI and SCFI. This paper will divide the empirical analysis section into two periods to analyze and compare the differences in volatility spillover effect between shipping freight indices before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 separately. First, in order to compare the mean spillover impact and index lead-lag correlations in BDI and CCFI indices, along with BDI and SCFI indices before and after COVID-19, the co-integration analysis and the test of Granger causality built on the VAR model were utilized. Second, the impulse response and variance decomposition are employed in this work to investigate how the shipping freight index responds to shocks experienced by itself and other freight indices in a short period. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the results demonstrated that the BDI freight index is the Granger cause of the variable CCFI freight index. But the BDI and CCFI freight indices have no apparent lead-lag relationships after COVID-19, and this empirical result echoes the cointegration test result. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the SCFI index leads the BDI index. This study employs the VAR-BEKK-GARCH joint model to explore the volatility spillover results between dry bulk and container transport markets before and after COVID-19. The empirical results demonstrate that after COVID-19, fluctuations in the BDI index still affect the CCFI index in the maritime market. However, there is no proof of a volatility spillover relationship between the BDI and SCFI after the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will provide an insight into the volatility relationship among BDI, CCFI and SCFI before and after the the COVID-19 epidemic occurred.

• 해운
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• s.88
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• pp.12-20
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• 2012

2011년 건화물선 운임지수 평균값은 1,549p를 기록, 2010년 2,758p 대비 44% 가량 낮은 수준을 기록한 동시에 1,137p를 기록했던 2002년 이후 9년여만에 가장 낮은 수준을 기록하였다. 작년 9월 국제통화기금(IMF)에서 발표한 World Economic Outlook 기준 2012년 세계 경제 성장률은 4.0% 성장으로, 중국과 인도, 브라질 등 개도국들의 강한 성장이 미국과 유럽의 저성장을 상쇄할 것이라고 발표하였다. 그러나 IMF는 세계 경제가 유럽위기로 위험한 상황에 처해 있으며 중국 등의 이머징 국가도 위기의 영향을 받고 있다고 경고하며 올해 세계 경제 성장률이 하향 조정될 가능성이 있는 것으로 전망되고 있다. 그러나, 2012년 케이프선형을 둘러싼 수급여건은 다소 개선될 것으로 전망됐다. 다음은 캠코 선박운용 주식회사에서 발표한 "2012년 건화물선 시황전망"의 주요 내용을 요약정리한 것이다.

• 해운
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• s.87
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• pp.12-24
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• 2012

해운시장의 회복속도는 더딘 편이나 최근 소폭의 개선 움직임을 보이고 있다. 해운운임지수의 경우 과거 대비 개선폭은 크지 않지만 최근 벌크선을 중심으로 조금씩 반등하고 있는 추세이다. 해운산업의 변화요인으로는 리비아 사태로 인한 유가불안이 점차 진정이 되고 있는 모습이다. 국제유가는 지난 4월 이후 하락세로 전환되었다. 유가상승의 영향은 선종별로 상이하나, 연료비 증가로 인해 업계의 운항원가 부담이 증가한다. 국내업계의 경우, 2010년말 연료비는 7.1조원 규모로 운항원가에서 차지하는 비중은 32.9%로 높은 수준이다. 한편, 미국 신용등급 하락과 유로존 재정위기로 시장환경은 악화되었다. EU와 미국은 중국 다음으로 우리나라의 2~3번째로 큰 교역시장으로 최근 산업부문의 생신증가가 둔화되었다. 다음은 한국산업은행 경제연구소에서 발표한 "최근 해운산업 변화요인 점검과 향후 전망"의 주요 내용을 정리 요약한 것이다.