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Studies on the Appraisal of Stumpage Value in the Forest Land - With Respect to Kyung-Ju Area - (산원지(山元地) 임목평가(林木平価)에 관(関)한 연구(研究) - 경주지방(慶州地方)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Rha, Sang Soo;Park, Tai Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 1981
  • The purpose of the study is to find out the objective method of valuation on the forest stands through the analysis of logging costs that is positively related to timber production. The two forest (Amgog, Whangryoung), located nereby, but forest type, logging and skidding conditions being slightly different, were slected to carry out the study. The objective timber stumpage value were determined by investigating the appropriate timber production costs and profits of logging operations. The main result obtained in this study are as follows: 1. The rate of logging cost in consisting of timber market price is 13.15% in the area of Amgog logging place and 19.48% in Whangryoung. 2. The rate of the other production cost excluding logging cost is 15.36% in the area of Amgog logging place and 28.85% in Whangryoung. 3. The total rate of timber production cost in consisting of the market price is more than 28.51% in the area of Amgog logging place and 48.33% in Whangryoung, 4. Though the productivity of forest land is affected by the selection of tree species, tending, treatments and effective management of forest land, the more important problem is improvement of logging condition. 5. The rate of production cost in timber price is so high that we should endeavore to improve the productivity of labour and its quality, and minimize the difference of piece work per day in accordance to the various site condition. 6. Although the profit of forest industry is related to the period of recapturing investment, it is more closely related to the working condition, risk of investment and continuous change of social investment interest. 7. If the right variables which are related to the timber market, are objectively obtained, the stumpage value of mature forests can be objectively caculated by applying straight line discounting method or compound discounting method in caculating the stump to market price.

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Multicenter clinical study of childhood periodic syndromes that are common precursors to migraine using new criteria of the International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD-II) (편두통의 전 단계인 소아기주기성증후군의 다기관 임상 연구: 국제두통질환분류 제2판 제1차 수정판 적용)

  • Park, Jae Yong;Nam, Sang-Ook;Eun, So-Hee;You, Su Jeong;Kang, Hoon-Chul;Eun, Baik-Lin;Chung, Hee Jung
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.557-566
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    • 2009
  • Purpose : To evaluate the clinical features and characteristics of childhood periodic syndromes (CPS) in Korea using the new criteria of the International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD)-II. Methods : The study was conducted at pediatric neurology clinics of five urban tertiary-care medical centers in Korea from January 2006 to December 2007. Patients (44 consecutive children and adolescents) were divided into three groups (cyclic vomiting syndrome [CVS], abdominal migraine [AM], and benign paroxysmal vertigo of childhood [BPVC]) by recurrent paroxysmal episodes of vomiting, abdominal pain, dizziness, and/or vertigo using the ICHD-II criteria and their characteristics were compared. Results : Totally, 16 boys (36.4%) and 28 girls (63.6%) were examined (aged 4-18 yr), with 20 CVS (45.5%), 8 AM (18.2%), and 16 BPVC (36.4%) patients. The mean age at symptom onset was $6.3{\pm}3.6$ yr, $8.5{\pm}2.7$ yr, and $8.5{\pm}2.9$ yr in the CVS, AM, and BPVC groups, respectively, showing that symptoms appeared earliest in the CVS group. The mean age at diagnosis was $8.0{\pm}3.4$ yr, $10.5{\pm}2.6$ yr, and $10.1{\pm}3.2$ yr the CVS, AM, and BPVC groups, respectively. Of the 44 patients, 17 (38.6%) had a history of recurrent headaches and 11 (25.0%) showed typical symptoms of migraine headache, with 5 CVS (25.0%), 2 AM (25.0%), and 4 BPVC (25.0%) patients. Family history of migraine was found in 9 patients (20.4%): 4 in the CVS group (20.0%), 2 in the AM group (25.0%), and 3 in the BPVC group (18.8%). Conclusion : The significant time lag between the age at symptom onset and final diagnosis possibly indicates poor knowledge of CPS among pediatric practitioners, especially in Korea. A high index of suspicion may be the first step toward caring for these patients. Furthermore, a population-based longitudinal study is necessary to determine the incidence and natural course of these syndromes.

Studies on the Effect of Diffusion Process to Decay Resistance of Mine Props (간이처리법(簡易處理法)에 의한 갱목(坑木)의 내부효력(耐腐効力)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Shim, Chong Supp;Shin, Dong So;Jung, Hee Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 1976
  • This study has been made to make an observation regarding present status of the coal mine props which is desperately needed for coal production, despite of great shortage of the timber resources in this country, and investigate the effects of diffusion process on the decay resistances of the mine props as applied preservatives of Malenit and chromated zinc chloride. The results are as follows. 1. Present status of the coal mine props Total demand of coal mine props in the year of 1975 was approximately 456 thousand cubic meters. The main species used for mine props are conifer (mainly Pinus densiflora) and hardwood (mainly Quercus). Portions between them are half and half. With non fixed specification, wide varieties of timber in size and form are used. And volume of wood used per ton-of coal production shows also wide range from 0.017 cubic meter to 0.03 cubic meter. 2. Decay resistance test a) The oven dry weight decreased between untreated specimen and treated specimen has not shown any significantly, although it has shown some differences in average values between them. It may be caused by the shorter length of the test. b) The strength of compression test between untreated specimen and treated specimen has also shown the same results as shown in case of weight decrease. Reasons assumed are the same. c) The amounts of the extractives in one percent of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) between untreated and treated specimen have shown the large value in case of untreated specimen than that of treated. 3. The economical benifit between untreated and treated wood when applied in field has seen better in long term base in case of treated wood, although the primary cost of treated wood add a little bit more cost than that of the untreated wood.

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The Requirement and Effect of the Document of Carriage in Respect of the International Carriage of Cargo by Air (국제항공화물운송에 관한 운송증서의 요건 및 효력)

  • Lee, Kang-Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.67-92
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this paper is to research the requirements and effect of the document of carriage in respect of the carriage of cargo by air under the Montreal Convention of 1999, IATA Conditions of Carriage for Cargo, and the judicial precedents of Korea and foreign countries. Under the Article 4 of Montreal Convention, in respect of the carriage of cargo, an air waybill shall be delivered. If any other means which preserves a record of the carriage are used, the carrier shall, if so requested by the consignor, deliver to the consignor a cargo receipt. Under the Article 7 of Montreal convention, the air waybill shall be made out by the consignor. If, at the request of the consignor, the carrier makes it out, the carrier shall be deemed to have done so on behalf of the consignor. The air waybill shall be made out in three original parts. The first part shall be marked "for the carrier", and shall be signed by the consignor. The second part shall be marked "for the consignee", and shall be signed by the consignor and by the carrier. The third part shall be signed by the carrier who shall hand it to the consignor after the goods have been accepted. Under the Article 5 of Montreal Convention, the air waybill or the cargo receipt shall include (a) an indication of the places of departure and destination, (b) an indication of at least one agreed stopping place, (c) an indication of the weight of the consignment. Under the Article 10 of Montreal Convention, the consignor shall indemnify the carrier against all damages suffered by the carrier or any other person to whom the carrier is liable, by reason of the irregularity, incorrectness or incompleteness of the particulars and statement furnished by the consignor or on its behalf. Under the Article 9 of Montreal Convention, non-compliance with the Article 4 to 8 of Montreal Convention shall not affect the existence of the validity of the contract, which shall be subject to the rules of Montreal Convention including those relating to limitation of liability. The air waybill is not a document of title or negotiable instrument. Under the Article 11 of Montreal Convention, the air waybill or cargo receipt is prima facie evidence of the conclusion of the contract, of the acceptance of the cargo and of the conditions of carriage. Under the Article 12 of Montreal Convention, if the carrier carries out the instructions of the consignor for the disposition of the cargo without requiring the production of the part of the air waybill or the cargo receipt, the carrier will be liable, for any damage which may be accused thereby to any person who is lawfully in possession of that part of the air waybill or the cargo receipt. According to the precedent of Korea Supreme Court sentenced on 22 July 2004, the freight forwarder as carrier was not liable for the illegal delivery of cargo to the notify party (actual importer) on the air waybill by the operator of the bonded warehouse because the freighter did not designate the boned warehouse and did not hold the position of employer to the operator of the bonded warehouse. In conclusion, as the Korea Customs Authorities will drive the e-Freight project for the carriage of cargo by air, the carrier and freight forwarder should pay attention to the requirements and legal effect of the electronic documentation of the carriage of cargo by air.

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The Effects of Autologous Blood Pleurodesis in the Pneumothorax with Persistent Air Leak (지속성 기흉에서 자가혈액을 이용한 흉막유착술의 효과)

  • Yoon, Su-Mi;Shin, Sung-Joon;Kim, Young-Chan;Shon, Jang-Won;Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Chung, Won-Sang;Park, Sung-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.724-732
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    • 2000
  • Background : In patients with severe chronic lung diseases even a small pneumothorax can result in life-threatening respiratory distress. It is important to treat the attack by chest tube drainage until the lung expands. Pneumothorax with a persistent air leak that does not resolve under prolonged tube thoracostomy suction is usually treated by open operation to excise or oversew a bulla or cluster of blebs to stop the air leak. Pleurodesis by the instillation of chemical agents is used for the patient who has persistent air leak and is not good candidate for surgical treatment. When the primary trial of pleurodesis with common agent fails, it is uncertain which agent should be used f or stopping the air leak by pleurodesis. It is well known that inappropriate drainage of hemothorax results in severe pleural adhesion and thickening. Based on this idea, some reports described a successful treatment with autologous blood instillation for pneumothorax patients with or without residual pleural space. We tried pleurodesis with autologous bood for pneumothorax with persistent air leak and then we evaluated the efficacy and safety. Methods : Fifteen patients who had persistent air leak in the pneumothorax complicated from the severe chronic lung disease were enrolled. They were not good candidates for surgical treatment and doxycycline pleurodesis failed to stop up their air leaks. We used a mixture of autologous blood and 50% dextrose for pleurodesis. Effect and complications were assessed by clinical out∞me, chest radiography and pulmonary function tests. Results : The mean duration of air leak was 18.4${\pm}$6.16 days before ABP (autologous blood and dextrose pleurodesis) and $5.2{\pm}1.68$ days after ABP. The mean severity of pain was $2.3{\pm}0.70$ for DP(doxycycline pleurodesis) and $1.7{\pm}0.59$ for ABDP (p<0.05). There was no other complication except mild fever. Pleural adhesion grade was a mean of $0.6{\pm}0.63$. The mean dyspnea scale was $1.7{\pm}0.46$ before pneumothrax and $2.0{\pm}0.59$ after ABDP (p>0.05). The mean $FEV_1$ was $1.47{\pm}1.01$ before pneumothorax and $1.44{\pm}1.00$ after ABDP (p>0.05). Except in 1 patient, 14 patients had no recurrent pneumothorax. Conclusion : Autologous blood pleurodesis (ABP) was successful for treatment of persistent air leak in the pneumothorax. It was easy and inexpensive and involved less pain than doxycycline pleurodesis. It did not cause complications and severe pleural adhesion. We report that ABP can be considered as a useful treatment for persistent air leak in the pneumothorax complicated from the severe chronic lung disease.

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A Study on Aviation Safety and Third Country Operator of EU Regulation in light of the Convention on international Civil Aviation (시카고협약체계에서의 EU의 항공법규체계 연구 - TCO 규정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Koo-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.67-95
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    • 2014
  • Some Contracting States of the Chicago Convention issue FAOC(Foreign Air Operator Certificate) and conduct various safety assessments for the safety of the foreign operators which operate to their state. These FAOC and safety audits on the foreign operators are being expanded to other parts of the world. While this trend is the strengthening measure of aviation safety resulting in the reduction of aircraft accident. FAOC also burdens the other contracting States to the Chicago Convention due to additional requirements and late permission. EASA(European Aviation Safety Agency) is a body governed by European Basic Regulation. EASA was set up in 2003 and conduct specific regulatory and executive tasks in the field of civil aviation safety and environmental protection. EASA's mission is to promote the highest common standards of safety and environmental protection in civil aviation. The task of the EASA has been expanded from airworthiness to air operations and currently includes the rulemaking and standardization of airworthiness, air crew, air operations, TCO, ATM/ANS safety oversight, aerodromes, etc. According to Implementing Rule, Commission Regulation(EU) No 452/2014, EASA has the mandate to issue safety authorizations to commercial air carriers from outside the EU as from 26 May 2014. Third country operators (TCO) flying to any of the 28 EU Member States and/or to 4 EFTA States (Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Switzerland) must apply to EASA for a so called TCO authorization. EASA will only take over the safety-related part of foreign operator assessment. Operating permits will continue to be issued by the national authorities. A 30-month transition period ensures smooth implementation without interrupting international air operations of foreign air carriers to the EU/EASA. Operators who are currently flying to Europe can continue to do so, but must submit an application for a TCO authorization before 26 November 2014. After the transition period, which lasts until 26 November 2016, a valid TCO authorization will be a mandatory prerequisite, in the absence of which an operating permit cannot be issued by a Member State. The European TCO authorization regime does not differentiate between scheduled and non-scheduled commercial air transport operations in principle. All TCO with commercial air transport need to apply for a TCO authorization. Operators with a potential need of operating to the EU at some time in the near future are advised to apply for a TCO authorization in due course, even when the date of operations is unknown. For all the issue mentioned above, I have studied the function of EASA and EU Regulation including TCO Implementing Rule newly introduced, and suggested some proposals. I hope that this paper is 1) to help preparation of TCO authorization, 2) to help understanding about the international issue, 3) to help the improvement of korean aviation regulations and government organizations, 4) to help compliance with international standards and to contribute to the promotion of aviation safety, in addition.

Effects of firm strategies on customer acquisition of Software as a Service (SaaS) providers: A mediating and moderating role of SaaS technology maturity (SaaS 기업의 차별화 및 가격전략이 고객획득성과에 미치는 영향: SaaS 기술성숙도 수준의 매개효과 및 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Chae, SeongWook;Park, Sungbum
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 2014
  • Firms today have sought management effectiveness and efficiency utilizing information technologies (IT). Numerous firms are outsourcing specific information systems functions to cope with their short of information resources or IT experts, or to reduce their capital cost. Recently, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) as a new type of information system has become one of the powerful outsourcing alternatives. SaaS is software deployed as a hosted and accessed over the internet. It is regarded as the idea of on-demand, pay-per-use, and utility computing and is now being applied to support the core competencies of clients in areas ranging from the individual productivity area to the vertical industry and e-commerce area. In this study, therefore, we seek to quantify the value that SaaS has on business performance by examining the relationships among firm strategies, SaaS technology maturity, and business performance of SaaS providers. We begin by drawing from prior literature on SaaS, technology maturity and firm strategy. SaaS technology maturity is classified into three different phases such as application service providing (ASP), Web-native application, and Web-service application. Firm strategies are manipulated by the low-cost strategy and differentiation strategy. Finally, we considered customer acquisition as a business performance. In this sense, specific objectives of this study are as follows. First, we examine the relationships between customer acquisition performance and both low-cost strategy and differentiation strategy of SaaS providers. Secondly, we investigate the mediating and moderating effects of SaaS technology maturity on those relationships. For this purpose, study collects data from the SaaS providers, and their line of applications registered in the database in CNK (Commerce net Korea) in Korea using a questionnaire method by the professional research institution. The unit of analysis in this study is the SBUs (strategic business unit) in the software provider. A total of 199 SBUs is used for analyzing and testing our hypotheses. With regards to the measurement of firm strategy, we take three measurement items for differentiation strategy such as the application uniqueness (referring an application aims to differentiate within just one or a small number of target industry), supply channel diversification (regarding whether SaaS vendor had diversified supply chain) as well as the number of specialized expertise and take two items for low cost strategy like subscription fee and initial set-up fee. We employ a hierarchical regression analysis technique for testing moderation effects of SaaS technology maturity and follow the Baron and Kenny's procedure for determining if firm strategies affect customer acquisition through technology maturity. Empirical results revealed that, firstly, when differentiation strategy is applied to attain business performance like customer acquisition, the effects of the strategy is moderated by the technology maturity level of SaaS providers. In other words, securing higher level of SaaS technology maturity is essential for higher business performance. For instance, given that firms implement application uniqueness or a distribution channel diversification as a differentiation strategy, they can acquire more customers when their level of SaaS technology maturity is higher rather than lower. Secondly, results indicate that pursuing differentiation strategy or low cost strategy effectively works for SaaS providers' obtaining customer, which means that continuously differentiating their service from others or making their service fee (subscription fee or initial set-up fee) lower are helpful for their business success in terms of acquiring their customers. Lastly, results show that the level of SaaS technology maturity mediates the relationships between low cost strategy and customer acquisition. That is, based on our research design, customers usually perceive the real value of the low subscription fee or initial set-up fee only through the SaaS service provide by vender and, in turn, this will affect their decision making whether subscribe or not.

Development of Intelligent Job Classification System based on Job Posting on Job Sites (구인구직사이트의 구인정보 기반 지능형 직무분류체계의 구축)

  • Lee, Jung Seung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The job classification system of major job sites differs from site to site and is different from the job classification system of the 'SQF(Sectoral Qualifications Framework)' proposed by the SW field. Therefore, a new job classification system is needed for SW companies, SW job seekers, and job sites to understand. The purpose of this study is to establish a standard job classification system that reflects market demand by analyzing SQF based on job offer information of major job sites and the NCS(National Competency Standards). For this purpose, the association analysis between occupations of major job sites is conducted and the association rule between SQF and occupation is conducted to derive the association rule between occupations. Using this association rule, we proposed an intelligent job classification system based on data mapping the job classification system of major job sites and SQF and job classification system. First, major job sites are selected to obtain information on the job classification system of the SW market. Then We identify ways to collect job information from each site and collect data through open API. Focusing on the relationship between the data, filtering only the job information posted on each job site at the same time, other job information is deleted. Next, we will map the job classification system between job sites using the association rules derived from the association analysis. We will complete the mapping between these market segments, discuss with the experts, further map the SQF, and finally propose a new job classification system. As a result, more than 30,000 job listings were collected in XML format using open API in 'WORKNET,' 'JOBKOREA,' and 'saramin', which are the main job sites in Korea. After filtering out about 900 job postings simultaneously posted on multiple job sites, 800 association rules were derived by applying the Apriori algorithm, which is a frequent pattern mining. Based on 800 related rules, the job classification system of WORKNET, JOBKOREA, and saramin and the SQF job classification system were mapped and classified into 1st and 4th stages. In the new job taxonomy, the first primary class, IT consulting, computer system, network, and security related job system, consisted of three secondary classifications, five tertiary classifications, and five fourth classifications. The second primary classification, the database and the job system related to system operation, consisted of three secondary classifications, three tertiary classifications, and four fourth classifications. The third primary category, Web Planning, Web Programming, Web Design, and Game, was composed of four secondary classifications, nine tertiary classifications, and two fourth classifications. The last primary classification, job systems related to ICT management, computer and communication engineering technology, consisted of three secondary classifications and six tertiary classifications. In particular, the new job classification system has a relatively flexible stage of classification, unlike other existing classification systems. WORKNET divides jobs into third categories, JOBKOREA divides jobs into second categories, and the subdivided jobs into keywords. saramin divided the job into the second classification, and the subdivided the job into keyword form. The newly proposed standard job classification system accepts some keyword-based jobs, and treats some product names as jobs. In the classification system, not only are jobs suspended in the second classification, but there are also jobs that are subdivided into the fourth classification. This reflected the idea that not all jobs could be broken down into the same steps. We also proposed a combination of rules and experts' opinions from market data collected and conducted associative analysis. Therefore, the newly proposed job classification system can be regarded as a data-based intelligent job classification system that reflects the market demand, unlike the existing job classification system. This study is meaningful in that it suggests a new job classification system that reflects market demand by attempting mapping between occupations based on data through the association analysis between occupations rather than intuition of some experts. However, this study has a limitation in that it cannot fully reflect the market demand that changes over time because the data collection point is temporary. As market demands change over time, including seasonal factors and major corporate public recruitment timings, continuous data monitoring and repeated experiments are needed to achieve more accurate matching. The results of this study can be used to suggest the direction of improvement of SQF in the SW industry in the future, and it is expected to be transferred to other industries with the experience of success in the SW industry.

Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.