• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.257-267
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• 2000

Mostly, the economic analyses for replacement of major components of nuclear power Plants(NPPs) have been performed in deterministic ways. However, the analysis results are more or less affected by the uncertainties associated with input variables. Therefore, it is desirable to use a probabilistic economic analysis method to properly consider uncertainty of real problem. In this paper, the probabilistic economic analysis method and decision analysis technique are briefly described. The probabilistic economy analysis method using decision analysis will provide efficient and accurate way of economic analysis for the repair and/or replace mai or components of NPPs.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.4A
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• pp.323-329
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• 2011

Most current design codes of concrete structures adopt the partial safety factor format to assure the proper safety margin or reliability against various limit states as a practical design tool. The safety factors, load and resistance factors and so on, are determined based on the theory of structural reliability, which takes into account the statistical uncertainties of both loads and resistances. The establishment of statistical models for load and resistance should be preceded the application of reliability theory. In this paper, especially the influence of the statistical variations of resistance models, which are described in terms of strength of concrete, strength of reinforcements and sectional dimensions and so on, are examined and the probabilistic models for resistance of reinforced concrete members were developed. The statistical data were collected on local tests and experiments in Korea and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique was used. The results of this paper may be useful and valuable in calibration of design code in this country.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.497-500
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• 2008

In order to prevent deterioration of reinforced concrete structures exposed to marine environment, performance based durability design than the design by conventional deemed-to-satisfy rule should be concerned. For example, even though chloride threshold level, which is a major parameter for durability design, is defined as a 1.2 $kg/m^3$ in the Korean concrete specification, it shows that the chloride threshold level leads to over design in its real application so that realistic value should be determined for the performance design. In this paper, not only the probabilistic properties of chloride threshold level obtained from published data are taken into account, but also the experimental results of the probabilistic properties using surface chloride content, diffusion coefficient, cover depth are considered in the assessment utilizing the concept of performance based durability design. In computation, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to perform an assessment due to chloride attack for a target submerged tunnel box. This study found that the specification on current chloride threshold level should be modified for more rational and accurate assessment and design.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.129-139
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• 2008

Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.18 no.2 s.92
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• pp.239-248
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• 2006

Recently, a variety of researches has been carried out to obtain a more controlled durability and long-term performance of concrete structures under chloride attack environments. In particular, new procedures for probability-based durability analysis/design have been noticed to be very valuable for the enhancement of service life of concrete structures. Although there is still a lack of relevant data, this approach has been successfully applied to some new concrete structures. In this paper, the diffusion equation based on Fick's second law has been solved with a time dependent diffusion coefficient and the probabilistic analysis of the durability performance has been carried out by using a Monte Carlo Simulation. From the results, the influence of each parameter on the durability of concrete structures was investigated and the new procedure for durability analysis was demonstrated in terms of chloride penetration data from various concrete structures. The new procedure might be very useful in designing important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures under chloride attack environments.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.75-84
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• 2010

According to the available study and experimental data about the long term behavior of CFT(Concrete Filled Tube) columns, the creep and of concrete in CFT columns are smaller than those of RC columns because of the confinement effect of outer steel columns. In this study, the uncertainties associated with assumed values for concrete properties such as strength, creep coefficients, and service load have been considered and analyzed for the prediction of time-dependent column shortening of CFT column. The CFT column shortening analysis using Monte Carlo method is proposed and an of a 37 story tall building with CFT columns is studied for illustration. According to the results obtained by the probability analysis with multi parameters, the effect of variation coefficient for 3 parameters is investigated considering confidence interval.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.143-217
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• 1995

거시모형(巨視模型)을 통하여 과거 우리나라의 고성장(高成長)을 이해하고 주요(主要) 정책변수(政策變數)와 외생변수(外生變數)가 경제에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위해서는 중장기적으로 안정적이고 신뢰할 수 있는 거시모형(巨視模型)이 작성되어야 한다. 그러나 단순히 과거의 적합도(適合度)를 향상시키거나 단기(短期)시뮬레이션의 결과만을 토대로 작성된 거시모형은 중장기적인 안정성(安定性) 내지는 신뢰성(信賴性)을 확보하지 못할 수도 있다. 본고(本稿)에서는 거사모형의 작성에 있어서도 구조적(構造的) VAR모형(模型)에서처럼 모형의 중장기 특성을 파악하는 것이 중요함을 지적하였다. 구조적 VAR모형에서는 대부분의 이론이 수용할 수 있는 "수요충격(需要衝擊)은 장기에 실질성장에 영향을 미치지 않는다"는 최소한의 가정(假定)이 모형(模型)에 처음부터 직접적(直接的)으로 내재(內在)되도록 하고 있으나, 본고에서는 거시전망모형(巨視展望模型)의 작성을 위하여 중장기적(中長期的)인 시뮬레이션을 통하여 간접적(間接的)으로 위의 가정(假定)을 확인하는 방법을 택하였다. 이에 추가하여 중장기 전망을 시도했을 때 다른 나라의 경험과 크게 배치되는 결과가 나온 경우에는 모형을 수정하는 것이 필요함을 투자(投資) 및 소비식(消費式)의 예(例)를 들어서 논의하였다. 본고(本稿)의 공헌은, 중장기적으로 안정적이고 신뢰할 수 있는 거시전망모형(巨視展望模型)의 작성에 있어서 중장기시뮬레이션과 중장기전망의 결과가 모형작성자의 선험적(先驗的) 기대(期待)에 수렴될 때까지 모형의 수정을 해나가는 반복과정을 전망모형(展望模型) 작성에 있어 하나의 방법론(方法論)으로 제시한 데 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.71-71
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• 2012

현재 전 세계적으로 극한강우의 발생빈도가 점차 높아지고 있으며 홍수량 또한 강도가 커지고 있는 것이 현실이다. 하지만 과거의 홍수발생 빈도에 따라 설계된 홍수방어시설들이 점차 한계를 보이고 있으므로 이를 대비하기위한 구조적 대책뿐만 아니라 홍수피해 발생 가능지역에 사전 예경보를 시행하는 비구조적 대책마련 또한 필요하다. 기존의 홍수예측은 확정적인 하나의 유량예측값만을 제공함으로써 신속하고 편리하였지만 이에 대한 불확실성이 큰 경우 예상치 못한 큰 인적 물적 피해를 가져올 수 있다. 이처럼 확률론적 홍수예측의 필요성이 대두되어 지면서 유럽이나 미국등 선진국에서는 EFFS(European Flood Forecasting System)과 NWSRFS(National Water Service River Forecast System)같이 이미 확률론적 홍수예측에 대한 연구 및 기술개발이 활발하게 진행되어지고 있다. 하지만 홍수예측의 확률론적 접근에 있어서는 많은 불확실성들이 내포되어 있으므로 예측시스템에서 생성된 앙상블 유량예측 결과의 신뢰도 분석과 올바른 불확실성 정보의 제공이 필요하다. 본 연구는 확률론적 홍수예측 방법을 국내에 적용시켜서 기상청의 예측시스템 KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System), MAPLE(McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation), UM(Unified Model) 그리고 MOGREPS(Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System)으로부터 생성된 기상앙상블을 현재 국토해양부 홍수통제소에서 사용하고 있는 강우-유출모형인 저류함수모형(Storage Function Method)의 입력 자료로 사용한다. 확률론적 홍수예측에서 오는 불확실성을 분석하기 위해서 첫 번째로 제공되는 기상예측 시스템의 시 공간적 스케일 및 대상유역의 공간특성에 따라 어떠한 형태로 전파되어지는지를 분석하였다. 두 번째는 각각의 예측시스템들이 선행기간(Lead time)에 따라 불확실성의 특성이 어떻게 나타나게 되는지를 확인하였다. 이러한 불확실성의 특성을 정확하게 파악하게 된다면 예측에 있어서 현재 갖고 있는 문제점들로부터 개선해 나가야 할 방향을 제시해주어 향후연구에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.34 no.8
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• pp.24-32
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• 2006

Using a deterministic design optimization, the effect of uncertainty can result in violation of constraints and deterioration of performances. For this reason, design optimization is required to guarantee reliability for constraints and ensure robustness for an objective function under uncertainty. Therefore, this study drew Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) for the evaluation of reliability and robustness, and selected an artificial neural network as an approximate model that is suitable for MCS. Applying to the aero-structural optimization problem of aircraft wing, we can explore robuster optima satisfying the sigma level of reliability than the baseline.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.115-122
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• 1994

Design sensitivity analysis of the second order perturbed eigenproblems for random structural system is presented. Dynamic response of random system including uncertainties for the design variable is calculated with the first order and second order perturbation method to original governing equation. In optimal design methods, there is fundamental requirement for design gradients. A method for calculating the sensitivity coefficients is developed using the direct differentiation method for the governing equation and first order and second order perturbed equation.