• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.59-78
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• 1998

'90년대에 들어서면서 급속한 경제성장과 함께 자동차수가 급증하여 '97년에는 1.000만대를 돌파 하였다. 자동차수의 증가와 함께 교통사고도 나날이 늘어 '96년에는 사망자가 12,600여명에 이르렀다. 교 통사고는 막대한 인명피해와 함께 사회적으로 많은 비용을 소모한다. 교통사고로 인한 사회적 비용의 추정은 교통안전사업의 효과분석 및 기타 교통관련사업에서 꼭 필요한 자료이다. 이제까지 국내에서 수 행된 교통사고비용은 1년간의 전체 사고비용만을 추정하고 사고등급별 사고건당 사고비용은 도출하지 못하였다. 이에 본연구는 교통관련사업에서 꼭필요한 자료이다. 이제까지 국내에서 수행된 교통사고 비 용은 1년간의 전체 사고비용만을 추정하고 사고등급별 사고건당 사고비용은 도출하지 못하였다. 이에 본 연구는 교통관련사업에 필수적인 사고심각도에 따른 교통사고비용을 도출하려한다. 교통사고비용을 산출하는 대표적인 방법에는 총생산손실법과 개인선호성법이 있으나 본연구에서는 총생산손실법을 이용 하였다. 교통사고비용 항목은 사고로 인한 생산손실비용, 의료비용, 차량수리비용, 행정비용 및 PGS(Pain, Grief & Suffering) 비용으로 구분된다. 이중에서 PGS비용은 국내에서는 처음으로 고려된 항 목으로 교통사고 피해자 및 가족의 물질적·정신적 피해비용을 의미한다. 본연구에서는 각 항목의 비용 추계를 가능한 한 종합적이고 체계적이며 구체적으로 산출하였으며 그결과 사고등급별 건당 교통사고비 용을 도출하였다. PGS를 고려하지 않은 경우 사망사고 1건당 2억4천만원이고 중상사고 1건당 2천3백만 원 경상사고 1건당 7백 9십만원으로 추정되었다. 또한 사망자와 부상자 1인당 평균사고비용은 각각 2억 1천만원과 1천1백만원으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.103-111
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• 2011

To evaluate highway safety countermeasures or identify high risk sites, the expected crashes for a site (or segment) have been estimated using the panel crash data. Past studies show that two different methods can be employed to estimate the expected crashes: observed crash based method and empirical Bayes (EB) method. This study conducts a simulation study to analyze how the estimation errors of the two estimates are affected by the different structures of the panel crash data and the presence of the change in safety over time. The results disclose that the estimation errors of the observed crash based estimates (i.e. the mean observed crash and comparative parallel estimate) are always greater than those of the EB estimates regardless of the structure of the panel crash data and the presence of the change in safety over time. Thus, it is highly recommended that the EB method be used in the study of traffic safety to obtain more reliable estimates for the expected crashes. In addition, this study corroborates that the estimation errors of the two estimates decrease as the analysis periods increase if safety does not change over time. Hence, it is also recommended that the 1-year analysis period used for identifying high risk sites in Korea be extended to produce more efficient estimates of the time-constant expected crashes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.5D
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• pp.453-459
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• 2010

In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.155-164
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• 2003

현재 국내에서는 교통사고 재현 방법이 노면 흔적물에 의존하여 이루어지고 있고, 노면 흔적물이 없는 경우 교통사고 재현은 불가능하게 된다. 이러한 단점을 보완하기 위해 외국에서는 충돌모델을 이용한 교통사고 재현프로그램을 활용하고 있는 추세이다. 현재 우리나라에서 가장 많이 사용하는 교통사고 재현 프로그램 PC-CRASH를 활용하기 위해서는 각 사고마다 알맞은 충돌특성 인자 값을 사용자가 직접 입력하여 사용하여야 하나, 이를 활용할 수 있는 활용자료가 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구는 국내에서 실제 발생된 교통사고 사례에 대해 교통사고 재현 프로그램인 PC-CRASH와 충돌에 영향을 미치는 충돌 인자들로 교통사고를 재현하였고, 차량의 최종위치간 거리와 자세에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 알아보았다. 또한 실제 역 해석을 하기 위해 차량의 최종위치와 자세만으로 각각의 사례에 적절한 인자값을 추정할 수 있는 회귀식을 구성하였고, 통계적으로 신뢰성을 검증하였다. 사고 재현에 필요한 주요 충돌인자들의 초기치 설정시 추정식을 이용할 경우, 사고 재현 프로그램 활용 시, 시간 단축 효과를 프로그램 내부에 있는 유전자 알고리즘의 반복횟수로 추정식의 통계적 검증을 하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.45-52
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• 2010

The objective of this paper is to develop and apply a method that estimates the amount of traffic congestion (vehicle hours of delay) caused by traffic accidents that occur on freeways in Korea. A key feature of this research is the development of a method to separate the non- recurrent delay from any recurrent delay that is present on the road at the time and place of a reported accident. The main idea to separate these two delays is to use the speed difference between speed under accident condition and speed under normal flow condition. For the case study application, two datasets were combined to accomplish the objective of the study: (1) accident data and (2) traffic flow data. Eventually, the results can be useful for the performance evaluation of accident reduction program, for strategic plans to cope with congestion caused by traffic accidents, and for rectification of the estimation method for traffic congestion costs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.139-148
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• 2001

본 연구는 교통사고 야기 자들의 운전정밀적성검사기록과 해당 교통사고기록을 비교하여 특정 운전적성상의 결손이 교통사고와 특정유형의 교통사고에 미치는 영향을 계량적으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 본 연구를 위하여 우리나라에서 가장 빈발하는 인적요인에 의한 교통사고 유형 중에서 교통상충이 빈발하는 지점에서 발생하는 차-대-차 사고를 조사분석대상으로 삼았다. 이와 같이 분석대상사고를 선정한 이유는 교통상충이 교통사고로 발전하는 과정에서 사고 제1당사자의 운전적성의 역할을 파악하고자하는 목적에서이다. 따라서 본 연구의 대상이 되는 교통사고 유형을 1. 교차로 진입부에서의 추돌사고, 2. 교차로내 충추돌사고, 3. 단일로상의 추돌사고로 선정하였다. 판별력이 의문시되는 4개 항목을 제외한 조사분석결과에서 하나의 항목을 제외하고 사고 야기자와 일반인의 운전적성상에 통계적으로 분명한 차이가 있으며 각 항목의 결손자 집단에서의 사고자 비율이 일반운전자 집단에 비해 교통사고를 경험한 확률이 2배 내지 4배 가량 높았다. 또한 특정 유형 사고 야기자와 사고 야기자 전체, 일반운전자 집단간 비교에서도 항목별 결손율이 분명한 다른 형태를 갖고 있다는 사실을 확인했으며, 특정유형의 결손(조합)자 집합에서 특정 교통사고 유형을 야기시켰을 확률이 일반인 집단에 비해 많게는 13배 적게는 3, 4배 정도 높다고 추정되었다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.129-142
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• 2017

Accident Black Spot Improvement Project is the representative road safety intervention to eliminate environmental risk factors on the roadway by installing road safety facilities. Although it is one of the main road safety projects in Korea, there has been a lack of effort analyzing the traffic accident reduction effects of this project. In this study, therefore, we selected 4,171 road black spots from 2004 to 2013 and investigated the traffic accident reduction effects of 5 road safety facilities by using "Comparison Group(C-G)" method. Through the analysis, it was found that the number of traffic accidents were lowered by 4.45% with traffic islands, 32.17% with road paved markers, and 24.13% with speed cameras, respectively. However, 0.61% with pedestrian fencing and 1.67% with skid resistant pavement were increased on the other hand. In addition, we also analyzed traffic accident reduction facilities' performance on specific types of collision mentioned in manual on road safety facilities by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. It was shown that the number of bad weather traffic accidents were reduced by 52.96% with road paved markers, pedestrians accidents were reduced by 62.77% with pedestrian fencing and rear-end collisions were reduced by 26.00% with skid resistant pavement.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.97-106
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• 2001

The purpose of this paper is to determine the expected percentage of the 'VTS addressable' casualties that could be prevented with the installation of fourth level(Automatic Dependent Surveillance) of coastal VTS. In this study, it determines the VTS benefit by multiplying casualty rate reduction factors by the effect level of causal factors. The development of casualty rate reduction factors was based on the questionnaire survey, and the evaluation of effect levels was based on the causal analysis using functional block diagram. The results of this paper are compared With the results of worldwide literature related to the VTS effectiveness. One or more of the key variable inputs of this study, casualty rate reduction factors, may be somewhat uncertain and therefore subject to sensitivity analysis.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.29-38
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• 2018

This study aims to propose a method for the estimation of operational delay cost using transportation card data in bus accidents. Average operational delay time from bus accidents was surveyed among 12 bus companies through an interview method. Then, the operational delay cost was estimated using actual traffic accident data and transportation card data. Results showed that average loss time per bus accident was found to be 45 minutes. In addition, total occupancy of 659 was estimated for the accidents investigated using transportation card data, resulting a total loss time of 494.25 hours. An estimated operational delay cost was 186.9 thousand won per accident, which was 6.37% of social agency cost. The magnitude of this number implied that operational delay cost may have a significant impact on traffic accident cost if included.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.25-36
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic accident reduction effect of the introduction of motorcycle safety inspection. To analyze the effect of motorcycle inspection, we first estimate the number of defective motorcycles, and calculate the probability of accident occurrences caused by the defect using four year traffic accident data. Finally, we estimate the number of reduced accidents due to the introduction of the inspection and the total reduced accident cost. In this study, we analyzed three scenarios. It is analyzed that when the safety inspection system is applied to all motorcycles, 642 cases of traffic accidents and 325 million won per year of traffic accident costs are reduced. It is approximately 0.1% of 2014 total traffic accident cost of 26.5725 trillion won per year. It suggests that the cost of traffic accidents and traffic accidents due to vehicle factors are reduced when the safety inspection system is introduced.