• Title/Summary/Keyword: 교통량 예측

Search Result 386, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Design Hourly Factor Estimation with Vehicle Detection System (차량검지기자료를 이용한 고속도로 설계시간계수 산정 연구)

  • Baek, Seung-Geol;Kim, Beom-Jin;Lee, Jeong-Hui;Son, Yeong-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.25 no.6
    • /
    • pp.79-88
    • /
    • 2007
  • Design Hourly Volume (DHV) is the hourly volume used for designing a section of road. DHV is also used to estimate the expected number of vehicles to pass or traverse the relevant section of road in a future target year. The Design Hour Factor (DHF) is defined as the ratio of DHV to Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT). In addition to high precision of predicted traffic volume, in order to design a roadway to be the proper scale, applying appropriate DHFs considering traffic flow characteristics and type of area which surrounds the relevant roadway is important. This study categorizes sections of expressway (Suh Hae An Expressway) according to their area type and estimates DHFs utilizing traffic data obtained from a vehicle detection system (VDS). This study shows that DHFs calculated using VDS data are different from those using traffic data acquired from a coverage survey. While AADTs from both data show similar values, peak hour volumes from both data show significant differences especially for recreational areas. DHFs from the coverage survey are quite different from the values provided by the Korean design guide or previous research results and DHFs for urban areas are higher than recreational areas. However, DHFs from VDS shows similar values to previous research results. The result of this study suggests that using VDS for estimating DHFs is more reliable than using a coverage survey.

Simulation Analysis about Effects on Highway Network and Drivers under Information Providing Service (정보제공 서비스가 운전자 및 도로 네트워크에 미치는 영향에 대한 시뮬레이션 분석)

  • ;IIDA, Yasunori;;UNO, Nobuhiro
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.85-96
    • /
    • 2003
  • To build traffic information providing services by ITS technology should be carried out effect analysis in the first step for social and individual advantages. The propose on this study is to make clear what influences of highway network by traffic information are, and what differences between drivers who use traffic information and drivers who do not use that for route choice are. For these propose. travel time and forecast error of travel time on network and traffic information dependence of driver are analyzed by simulation. As a result of analysis travel time and forecast error of travel time is that the efficiency and reliability of travel time were increased when getting more drivers using traffic information in network. Drivers who using traffic information had advantage of decrease of travel time and forecast error in only definite situation. traffic information dependence analysis presented that drivers are dependent upon information and reliability of traffic information is also increased when drivers using traffic information become on increasing in network. In conclusion, considering the range of the traffic information user ratio in this simulation, this study presents that the traffic information service provides an advantage to the highway network and the drivers, and increases the dependence of information.

A Theoretical Analysis of Probabilistic DDHV Estimation Models (확률적인 중방향 설계시간 교통량 산정 모형에 관한 이론적 해석)

  • Cho, Jun-Han;Kim, Seong-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.199-209
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.

An Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Measuring Displacement in Cultural Asset images (목조 문화재 영상에서의 변위량 측정을 위한 앙상블 딥러닝 모델)

  • Kang, Jaeyong;Kim, Inki;Lim, Hyunseok;Gwak, Jeonghwan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
    • /
    • 2021.07a
    • /
    • pp.141-143
    • /
    • 2021
  • 본 논문에서는 목조 문화재의 변위량을 감지할 수 있는 앙상블 딥러닝 모델 모델을 제안한다. 우선 총 2개의 서로 다른 사전 학습된 합성 곱 신경망을 사용하여 입력 영상에 대한 심층 특징들을 추출한다. 그 이후 2개의 서로 다른 심층 특징들을 결합하여 하나의 특징 벡터를 생성한다. 그 이후 합쳐진 특징 벡터는 완전 연결 계층의 입력 값으로 들어와서 최종적으로 변위의 심각 단계에 대한 예측을 수행하게 된다. 데이터 셋으로는 충주시 근처의 문화재에 방문해서 수집한 목조 문화재 이미지를 가지고 정상 및 비정상으로 구분한 데이터 셋을 사용하였다. 실험 결과 앙상블 딥러닝 기법을 사용한 모델이 앙상블 기법을 사용하지 않는 모델보다 더 좋은 성능을 나타냄을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과로부터 우리가 제안한 방법이 목재 문화재의 변위량 예측에 있어서 매우 적합함을 보여준다.

  • PDF

A Study on Predictive Traffic Information Using Cloud Route Search (클라우드 경로탐색을 이용한 미래 교통정보 예측 방법)

  • Jun Hyun, Kim;Kee Wook, Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.287-296
    • /
    • 2015
  • Recent navigation systems provide quick guide services, based on processing real-time traffic information and past traffic information by applying predictable pattern for traffic information. However, the current pattern for traffic information predicts traffic information by processing past information that it presents an inaccuracy problem in particular circumstances(accidents and weather). So, this study presented a more precise predictive traffic information system than historical traffic data first by analyzing route search data which the drivers ask in real time for the quickest way then by grasping traffic congestion levels of the route in which future drivers are supposed to locate. First results of this study, the congested route from Yang Jae to Mapo, the analysis result shows that the accuracy of the weighted value of speed of existing commonly congested road registered an error rate of 3km/h to 18km/h, however, after applying the real predictive traffic information of this study the error rate registered only 1km/h to 5km/h. Second, in terms of quality of route as compared to the existing route which allowed for an earlier arrival to the destination up to a maximum of 9 minutes and an average of up to 3 minutes that the reliability of predictable results has been secured. Third, new method allows for the prediction of congested levels and deduces results of route searches that avoid possibly congested routes and to reflect accurate real-time data in comparison with existing route searches. Therefore, this study enabled not only the predictable gathering of information regarding traffic density through route searches, but it also made real-time quick route searches based on this mechanism that convinced that this new method will contribute to diffusing future traffic flow.

Evaluation of Fuel Consumption Models for Eco-friendly Traffic Operations Strategies (친환경 교통운영전략을 위한 차량 연료소모량 예측모형 평가)

  • PARK, Sangjun;LEE, Jung-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.234-247
    • /
    • 2016
  • As the necessity of the evaluation of environmentally-friendly traffic operations strategies becomes obvious, the characteristics of fuel consumption models should be comprehended in advance. This study selected three fuel consumption models developed in Korea and another three models widely used in North America, and compared their applicabilities. Specifically, the national institute of environmental research (NIER) drive modes and the VISSIM software were utilized to model various driving patterns, and their fuel consumptions were estimated using the fuel consumption models. Based on the results, all the models showed the similar results in the analysis of the most fuel efficient cruising speed. On the other hand, caution should be taken when using the KR-1 and KR-2 models in microscopic analyses because they are not sensitive to instantaneous power requirements of vehicles.

A Study on Forecasting Trip Distribution of Land Development Project Using Middle Zone Size And Gravity Model (중죤단위와 중력모형을 이용한 택지개발사업의 통행분포 예측방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Chang-Yong;Son, Ui-Yeong;Kim, Do-Gyeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.19-28
    • /
    • 2009
  • In case of land development projects constructed, to solve induced transportation volume needs analysis of traffic demand. Trip-generation of land development projects is exactly predicted by using traffic instigating-basic-unit in each facility of land developments. But in case of a phase of trip-distribution, because a range of destinations is very enormous and it needs enormous data to reflect all of its characters, whenever trip-distribution is predicted, the method which assumes the rate of trip-distribution is same both before completion of land development projects and after is often used. But because there is no exact criterion, the method suggested above is also affected by subjective opinion. Accordingly, this study look over using trip-distribution of specific areas's DB and suggests a size of zone to predict a distribution of land development projects exactly. Also production - constrained gravity model which uses the gap between a distribution of suggested ranges and induced land development project is suggested for more exact prediction of trip-distribution. Besides accuracy of prediction is scrutinized by using Mean Squared Error.

An Analysis of the Rail Wear Measurements for the Prediction of Particulate Matter Emission in Urban Railway (도시철도 미세먼지 발생량 예측을 위한 레일 마모량 분석)

  • Yoon, Cheonjoo;Ko, Huigyu;Bang, Myeongseok;Kwon, Hyeokbin
    • Journal of The Korean Society For Urban Railway
    • /
    • v.6 no.4
    • /
    • pp.339-350
    • /
    • 2018
  • The rail wear measurements in urban underground railway have been analyzed to predict the particulate matter emission caused by rail wear which is one of the major sources of particulate matter emission for underground railway systems. From the rail profile variations measured in the interval of one and half year by dedicated rail wear measuring instrument over the commercial urban underground railway line, 'line-s' which is about 45km long, the characteristics as well as the amount of rail wear have been analyzed after dividing the whole line into about 170 section with radius of curve(R). It has been concluded that the vertical wear parameter V0 and corner wear parameter C0 have been selected to represent the wear amount of straight and curved rail respectively. The amount of rail wear as well as the particulate matter emission by rail wear over the whole line normalized by the rail length as well as the number of train has also been deduced from the relationship between the rail wear parameters and the amount of rail cross-section area.

Basic Studies on Development of Turn Penalty Functions in Signalized Intersections (신호교차로의 회전제약함수 개발을 위한 기초연구)

  • O, Sang-Jin;Kim, Tae-Yeong;Park, Byeong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.157-167
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study deals with the turn penalty functions in the urban transportation demand forecasting. The objectives are to develop the penalty functions of left-turn traffic in the case of signalized intersections, and to analyze the applicability of the functions to the traffic assignment models. This is based on the background that the existing models can not effectively account for the delays of left-turn traffic which is bigger than that of through traffic. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attention to developing the penalty functions based on the degrees of saturation by simulation results of Transyt-7F, and analyzing the applicability of the functions by the case study of Cheongju. The major findings are the followings. First, two penalty functions developed according to the degrees of saturation, are evaluated to be all statistically significant. Second, the results that the above functions apply to the Cheongju network, are analyzed to be converging, though the iteration numbers increase. Third, the link volumes forecasted by turn penalty functions are evaluated to be better fitted to the observed data than those by the existing models. Finally, the differences of traffic volumes assigned by two functions, which are exponential and divided forms, are analyzed to be very small.

A Study on Freeway Traffic Simulation Model (도시고속도로 교통류 모의실험 모형에 관한 연구)

  • 강정규
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
    • /
    • 1996.12a
    • /
    • pp.17-40
    • /
    • 1996
  • 본 연구에서는 거시적 연속교통류 모형에 바탕을 둔 도시고속도로로 시뮬레이션모형의 개발이 시도되었다. 이 모형은 simple continuum model에 통행수요모형 기능을 강화시킨 것으로서 기존 연속교통류 시뮬레이션모형의 단점을 개선하였다. 제안된 시뮬레이션모형은 정산과정을 거쳐 미국 도시고속도로에서 수집한 현장자료에 의해 평가되었다. 특히 링크의 목적지별 차량대수 추정, 실시간 O-D추정의 문제가 확장칼만필터의 형태로 접근되었으며, 개발된 시뮬레이션모형을 ATMS전략에 활용하는 방안이 개발·평가되었다. 이들 전 과정을 통합한 모수적응적 모형(Parameter Adaptive Model)에 의해 교통량을 실시간으로 예측(Real time traffic prediction)하는 방법을 제안하였으며 현장자료에 의해서 평가되었다.

  • PDF