• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.76-87
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• 2010

According to the new rules and regulations (New SOLAS), major safety critical systems are to be designed to be redundant, which is called 'Redundancy Design'. This paper was to quantitatively analyze the degree of influence of the redundancy design applied to major safety critical systems using IMO's FSA(formal Safety Assessment) method. For the purpose of this study, the diesel engine system, which is actually one of major safety critical systems, was dealt with FMEA, FTA and ETA technique. In addition, whether the redundancy was met or not was verified and the degree of safety, or redundancy, was represented in terms of reliability. In conclusion, the safety of propulsion systems is possibly assessed systematically by estimating the risk level in terms of frequency and fatality.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.283-289
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• 2006

This study is a preparation for the application of FSA (Formal Safety Assessment) to the fire safety of ships. FSA is the new-fashioned methodology proposed to prevent ships from the accidents. To make a base of the fire safety assessment about ship's fire protection design and Classification Society rule, statistical informations for the fire safety engineering are investigated. From results, the necessity of new criterion for ship's fire safety design, the need to study the human behavior in the evacuation from fire, and the development of new fire progress model considering special situations in ships are acknowledged.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.61-74
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• 2001

The prevention of marine accidents has been a major topic in marine society and various policies and countermeasures has been developed, applied to the industries. Formal Safety Assessment is a structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, health, the marine environment and property, by using risk and cost-benefit assessments. In addition, it provides a means of being proactive, enabling potential hazards to be considered before a serious accident occurs. In this paper, we has been screening and ranking of hazards using fuzzy structural modeling method and quantitative risk assessment for the ship's collision in the last 10 years marine accidents.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.15-29
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• 2009

Most breakwater armor blocks are designed by using Hudson's or van der Meer's formula. The minimum weight of armor blocks is calculated by equating the resistance to the load in each formula. The larger value is then chosen as the design weight. In this study, we have performed reliability analyses for thus designed breakwater armor blocks of 12 trade harbors and 8 coastal harbors in Korea. The probability of failure calculated by the reliability analysis provides a criterion for evaluating the stability of armor blocks. The calculated probability of failure was almost same for all the breakwaters so that we were able to quantitatively evaluate the safety level of armor blocks of existing breakwaters. We also found that the safety factor used in the deterministic design method and the probability of failure in the reliability design method show a linear relationship. Therefore the probability of failure of existing breakwaters can be quantitatively calculated from the safety factors. The calculated probability of failure could also be used for determining the target probability of failure in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.196-198
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• 2016

해양사고 원인의 대부분을 차지하는 인적오류 예방은 해양안전에 가장 중요하며 인적오류는 확률기반의 인적 모델을 구축하여 평가할 수 있다. 확률기반 인적 모델을 구축하기 위해 사건의 원인과 결과 사이에 연계성을 갖고 있는 통계 데이터가 필요하다. 이러한 데이터는 정부 공식통계로서 해양안전심판원에서 제공하는 재결서의 내용 분석을 통해 얻고자 하나, 측정변수가 너무 많아 계산량이 방대하다. 본 연구에서는 재결서 분석서의 원인판단에서 기준이 되는 해양안전심판원의 해양사고조사심판정보포털(이하 해심)에서 제공하는 재결서 내용의 핵심적인 내용으로 구성된 '주제어 '데이터를 활용하여 주제어에 포함된 핵심단어 분석절차를 수립하였다. 이들 단어가 구분형태별로 어떻게 분포된 상태인지 알아보고, 선박사고별로 최적으로 설명할 수 있는 단어 객체수를 검토해보고자 한다. 향후 축소된 차원으로도 해양사고 인적과실의 인과관계 설명이 가능하면, 인적모델의 측정변수를 결정하는 경우 쉽게 타당성을 확인 할 수 있어 해양안전을 위한 중요한 자료로 활용할 수 있다.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.373-384
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• 2000

To assess the safety of nonlinear steel frame structures subjected to short duration dynamic loadings, especially seismic loading, a nonlinear time domain reliability analysis procedure is proposed in the context of the stochastic finite element concept. In the proposed algorithm, the finite element formulation is combined with concepts of the response surface method, the first order reliability method, and the iterative linear interpolation scheme. This leads to the stochastic finite element concept. Actual earthquake loading time-histories are used to excite structures, enabling a realistic representation of the loading conditions. The assumed stress-based finite element formulation is used to increase its efficiency. The algorithm also has the potential to evaluate the risk associated with any linear or nonlinear structure that can be represented by a finite element algorithm subjected to seismic loading or any short duration dynamic loading. The algorithm is explained with help of an example and verified using the Monte Carlo simulation technique.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.239-246
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• 2012

It is the well-known fact that most part of goods transported are moved on the unfavorable ocean and even a small amount of accident on sea is extremely dangerous for human lives, financial losses, and social responsibility. Among the several causes of accidents, those by fire have occurred frequently and their damage has been highly serious. The aim of this paper is to assess the risk of fires due to oil leakage in the machinery space. To define the possible fire scenario, our team has performed the search of casualty database and reviewed the previous and various studies in the field. As a result, it is noted that the quantitative risk of the fire scenario have been evaluated on the ground of the FSA risk model. The expected frequency of a fire amounts to incidents during the life of a ship, and the expected financial damage amounts to 5,654 USD per a ship. By adopting Safety Instrumented System (SIS) introduced in IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, SIS model is designed to prevent oil leakage fire as a risk reduction method. It is concluded that System Integrity Level (SIL) 1 seems to be appropriate level of SIS.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.9-22
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• 1995

The purpose of this study is to propose safety factors of pile bearing capacity based on the reliability analysis. Each prediction method involves various degrees of uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties in a systematic way, the ratios of the measured bearing capacity from pile load tests to the predicted bearing capacity are represented in the form of a probability density function. The safety factor for each design method is obtained so that the probability of pile foundation failure is less than 10-3. The Bayesian theorem is applied in a way that the distribution using static formulae is assumed to be the A-prior and the distribution using dynamic formulae or wave equation based methods is assumed to be the likelihood, and these two are combined to obtain the posterior which has the reduced uncertainty. The results of this study show that static formulae of the pile bearing capacity using the 5.p.7. N-value as well as dynamic formulae are highly unreliable and have to have the safety factor more than 7.4 : the wave equation analysis using PDA(Pile Driving Analyzer) system the most reliable with the safety factor close to 2.7. The safety factor could be reduced certain amount by adoption the Bayes methodology in pile design.

• Journal of the korean veterinary medical association
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.220-233
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• 1996

소 해면형 뇌증(Bovine Spongiform Encephalpathy; BSE)은 일명 광우병(mad cow disease)이라고도 불리우는 새로운 해외 가축전염병이며, 세계적인 희귀질병으로 아직까지 확실한 병인체가 밝혀져 있지도 않으며, 그렇기 때문에 면역 혈청학적 진단방법도 확립되어 있지 못할 뿐만아니라 예방백신의 개발 또한 불가능하기 때문에, 일단 감염되어 발병되면 치료대책 없이 100$\%$ 폐사되는 세기의 불치병이다. 본 편에서는 소 해면형 뇌증(BSE)과 관련, 국제수역사무국(OIE) 총회에 보고된 영국정부의 공식보고 자료(Dept of Health, MAFF, 1989) 및 최근의 보고자료(1994, 1995)를 기본으로 하고, 각 회원국의 보고자료(Animal Health Status in Member Countries)와 전산화 역학정보 자료(Handistatus) 등을 근거로 하여, 소 해면형 뇌증이 세계적으로 처음 보고된 1986년 이래 최근 (1996년 3월)까지의 해외발생 역학정보를 수집 분석하고, 아울러 최근 전염병 및 해충의 효과적인 관리를 위하여 새롭게 정립되어 가고 있는 위험도 분석(risk analysis)의 개념을 도입하여, 우리나라에 있어서의 수입 쇠고기의 안전성 문제와 국내에서의 소 해면형 뇌증의 발생 가능성 등에 관하여 고찰해 보고자 한다. 결론적으로 소 해면형 뇌증은 현재 영국(그레이트 브리튼, 북아일랜드 등)에서 가장 크게 문제시 되고 있으며, 유럽 일부국가, 영국으로부터 소를 수입한 극소수의 국가에서 문제가 되었을 뿐, 영국 등 발생국가로부터 소와 쇠고기를 수입하고 있지 않는 우리나라에 있어서는 수입 쇠고기의 안전성에 문제가 없으며, 소 해면형 뇌증이나 양 스크래피의 국내 발생 가능성도 현재로서는 무시할 수 있을 정도로 극히 희박한 것으로 평가된다.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.8
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• pp.27-37
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• 2010

Downdrag force develops when a pile is driven through a soil layer which will settle more than a pile. There is no obvious criterion for application of the current pile design method considering the negative skin friction. Therefore, in this study, numerical analyses were performed to investigate the behavior of a single pile subjected to negative skin friction and their results were used to determine the applicability of the current design method. Including three different sites in Song-do area and two different cases with friction pile and end bearing pile conditions, total six cases were considered. The load-settlement relationships and the neutral points were estimated for different end bearing conditions and the allowable bearing capacity of piles with negative skin friction was investigated through parametric studies. Based on the results showed that the negative skin friction made a major influence on the settlement of a pile and its stress. However the allowable bearing capacity may not be influenced by the negative skin friction. Compared with the allowable bearing capacity obtained from the ultimate bearing capacity with the safety factor of 3, the current design method with the safety factor of 3 underestimated the allowable bearing capacities regardless of the end bearing conditions. On the other hand, the current design method with the safety factor of 2 yielded reasonable results depending on the end bearing conditions.