• Title/Summary/Keyword: 공간로지스틱 회귀모형

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마코프 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 강수 확률예측

  • Park, Jeong-Su
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2006
  • 현 기상의 시점에서 강수 확률 예측을 위해 가장 적절한 모형은 공간적 종속성과 시간적 종속성을 고려한 모형이 선택되어져야 한다. 보통 마크프 연쇄 모형과 예보인자를 이용하는 회귀 모형이 모두 고려된 모형을 사용한다. 본 논문에서는 강수 형태를 세 개의 상태로 나눈 경우, 즉 맑은 경우, 흐린 경우, 비온 경우로 나누어 마코프 로지스틱 회귀모형을 세우고 강수확률을 예측 할 수 있도록 하였다. 또한 서울 지역의 강수 자료를 이용하여 기존의 마코프 회귀모형과 마코프 로지스틱 회귀모형을 서로 비교하여 실제적 적용 문제를 다루었다.

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Estimating Probability of Mode Choice at Regional Level by Considering Spatial Association of Departure Place (출발지 공간 연관성을 고려한 지역별 수단선택확률 추정 연구)

  • Eom, Jin-Ki;Park, Man-Sik;Heo, Tae-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.656-662
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    • 2009
  • In general, the analysis of travelers' mode choice behavior is accomplished by developing the utility functions which reflect individual's preference of mode choice according to their demographic and travel characteristics. In this paper, we propose a methodology that takes the spatial effects of individuals' departure locations into account in the mode choice model. The statistical models considered here are spatial logistic regression model and conditional autoregressive model taking a spatial association parameter into account. We employed the Bayesian approach in order to obtain more reliable parameter estimates. The proposed methodology allows us to estimate mode shares by departure places even though the survey does not cover all areas.

Development of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Using Logistic Regression (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 산불발생확률모형 개발)

  • Lee, Byungdoo;Ryu, Gyesun;Kim, Seonyoung;Kim, Kyongha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2012
  • To achieve the forest fire management goals such as early detection and quick suppression, fire resources should be allocated at high probability area where forest fires occur. The objective of this study was to develop and validate models to estimate spatially distributed probabilities of occurrence of forest fire. The models were builded by exploring relationships between fire ignition location and forest, terrain and anthropogenic factors using logistic regression. Distance to forest, cemetery, fire history, forest type, elevation, slope were chosen as the significant factors to the model. The model constructed had a good fit and classification accuracy of the model was 63%. This model and map can support the allocation optimization of forest fire resources and increase effectiveness in fire prevention and planning.

Making a Hazard Map of Road Slope Using a GIS and Logistic Regression Model (GIS와 Logistic 회귀모형을 이용한 접도사면 재해위험도 작성)

  • Kang, In-Joon;Kang, Ho-Yun;Jang, Yong-Gu;Kwak, Young-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.14 no.1 s.35
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2006
  • Recently, slope failures are happen to natural disastrous when they occur in mountainous areas adjoining highways in Korea. The accidents associated with slope failures have increased due to rapid urbanization of mountainous areas. Therefore, Regular maintenance is essential for all slope and needs maintenance of road safety as well as road function. In this study, we take priority of making a database of risk factor of the failure of a slope before assesment and analysis. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a standard of Slope Management Information Sheet(SMIS) like as Hazard Map. The next research, we suggest to pre-estimated model of a road slope using Logistic Regression Model.

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Wild Boar (Sus scrofa corranus Heude ) Habitat Modeling Using GIS and Logistic Regression (GIS와 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 멧돼지 서식지 모형 개발)

  • 서창완;박종화
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2000
  • Accurate information on habitat distribution of protected fauna is essential for the habitat management of Korea, a country with very high development pressure. The objectives of this study were to develop a habitat suitability model of wild boar based on GIS and logistic regression, and to create habitat distribution map, and to prepare the basis for habitat management of our country s endangered and protected species. The modeling process of this restudyarch had following three steps. First, GIS database of environmental factors related to use and availability of wild boar habitat were built. Wild boar locations were collected by Radio-Telemetry and GPS. Second, environmental factors affecting the habitat use and availability of wild boars were identified through chi-square test. Third, habitat suitability model based on logistic regression were developed, and the validity of the model was tested. Finally , habitat assessment map was created by utilizing a rule-based approach. The results of the study were as folos. First , distinct difference in wild boar habitat use by season and habitat types were found, however, no difference in wild boar habiat use by season and habitat types were found , however, ho difference by sex and activity types were found. Second, it was found, through habitat availability analysis, that elevation , aspect , forest type, and forest age were significant natural environmental factors affecting wild boar hatibate selection, but the effects of slope, ridge/valley, water, and solar radiation could not be identified, Finally, the habitat at cutoff value of 0.5. The model validation showed that inside validation site had the classification accuracy of 73.07% for total habitat and 80.00% for cover habitat , and outside validation site had the classification accuracy of 75.00% for total habitat.

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Analysis of Influential Factors of Roadkill Occurrence - A Case Study of Seorak National Park - (로드킬 발생 영향요인 분석 - 설악산 국립공원 44번 국도를 대상으로 -)

  • Son, Seung-Woo;Kil, Sung-Ho;Yun, Young-Jo;Yoon, Jeong-Ho;Jeon, Hyung-Jin;Son, Young-Hoon;Kim, Min-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2016
  • This study aimed to interpret the fundamental cause of road-kill occurrences and analyzed spatial characteristics of the road-kill locations from Route 44 in Seorak National Park, Korea. Logistic regression analysis was utilized for backward elimination on variables. Seorak National Park Service has constructed GIS-data of 81 road-kill occurrences from 2008 to 2013 and these data were assigned as dependent variables in this study. Considered as independent variables from previous studies and field surveys, vegetation age-class, distance to streams, coverage of fences and retaining walls, and distance to building sites were assigned as road-kill impact factors. The coverage of fences and retaining walls(-1.0135) was shown as the most influential factor whereas vegetation age-class(0.0001) was the least influential among all of the significant factor estimates. Accordingly, the rate of road-kill occurrence can increase as the distance to building sites and stream becomes closer and vegetation age-class becomes higher. The predictive accuracy of road-kill occurrence was shown to be 72.2% as a result of analysis, assuming as partial causes of road-kill occurrences reflecting spatial characteristics. This study can be regarded as beneficial to provide objective basis for spatial decision making including road-kill occurrence mitigation policies and plans in the future.

Panel data analysis with regression trees (회귀나무 모형을 이용한 패널데이터 분석)

  • Chang, Youngjae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1253-1262
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    • 2014
  • Regression tree is a tree-structured solution in which a simple regression model is fitted to the data in each node made by recursive partitioning of predictor space. There have been many efforts to apply tree algorithms to various regression problems like logistic regression and quantile regression. Recently, algorithms have been expanded to the panel data analysis such as RE-EM algorithm by Sela and Simonoff (2012), and extension of GUIDE by Loh and Zheng (2013). The algorithms are briefly introduced and prediction accuracy of three methods are compared in this paper. In general, RE-EM shows good prediction accuracy with least MSE's in the simulation study. A RE-EM tree fitted to business survey index (BSI) panel data shows that sales BSI is the main factor which affects business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment. The economic sentiment BSI of non-manufacturing industries is higher than that of manufacturing ones among the relatively high sales group.

Major Factors Influencing Landslide Occurrence along a Forest Road Determined Using Structural Equation Model Analysis and Logistic Regression Analysis (구조방정식과 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 임도비탈면 산사태의 주요 영향인자 선정)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Sin;Moon, Seong-Woo;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.585-596
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    • 2022
  • This study determined major factors influencing landslide occurrence along a forest road near Sangsan village, Sancheok-myeon, Chungju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea. Within a 2 km radius of the study area, landslides occur intensively during periods of heavy rainfall (August 2020). This makes study of the area advantageous, as it allows examination of the influence of only geological and tomographic factors while excluding the effects of rainfall and vegetation. Data for 82 locations (37 experiencing landslides and 45 not) were obtained from geological surveys, laboratory tests, and geo-spatial analysis. After some data preprocessing (e.g., error filtering, minimum-maximum normalization, and multicollinearity), structural equation model (SEM) and logistic regression (LR) analyses were conducted. These showed the regolith thickness, porosity, and saturated unit weight to be the factors most influential of landslide risk in the study area. The sums of the influence magnitudes of these factors are 71% in SEM and 83% in LR.

A Study on the Application of Suitable Urban Regeneration Project Types Reflecting the Spatial Characteristics of Urban Declining Areas (도시 쇠퇴지역 공간 특성을 반영한 적합 도시재생 사업유형 적용방안 연구)

  • CHO, Don-Cherl;SHIN, Dong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.148-163
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    • 2021
  • The diversification of the New Deal urban regeneration projects, that started in 2017 in accordance with the "Special Act on Urban Regeneration Activation and Support", generated the increased demand for the accuracy of data-driven diagnosis and project type forecast. Thus, this research was conducted to develop an application model able to identify the most appropriate New Deal project type for "eup", "myeon" and "dong" across the country. Data for application model development were collected through Statistical geographic information service(SGIS) and the 'Urban Regeneration Comprehensive Information Open System' of the Urban Regeneration Information System, and data for the analysis model was constructed through data pre-processing. Four models were derived and simulations were performed through polynomial regression analysis and multinomial logistic regression analysis for the application of the appropriate New Deal project type. I verified the applicability and validity of the four models by the comparative analysis of spatial distribution of the previously selected New Deal projects by targeting the sites located in Seoul by each model and the result showed that the DI-54 model had the highest concordance rate.