• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.87-116
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• 2014

Forecasting of short-term employment fluctuations provides a useful tool for policy makers in risk managing the labor market. Following the process of producing the composite leading indicator for macro economy, the paper develops the employment leading indicator(ELI) for the purpose of short-term forecasting non-farm payroll employment in private sectors. ELI focuses on early detecting the point of time and the speed in phase change of employment level.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.35-43
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• 2015

Regional comparative analysis for the variability of young man's employment indexes is important to unemployment or employment policy data of central and local government. Through the result of comparative analysis, central and local government can use differentiated policies for the regions and keep the efficiency for the application of detailed policy. In this study, based on economically active population survey data which consider economically active population rate, employment population rate and unemployment rate as typical employment indexes of young man, we analyzed the variability of these indexes by metropolitan cities and province regions using coefficient of variation. Also we proposed the largest index in variability of three employment indexes, and proposed the city and province region with the largest variability for each employment index.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.494-506
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• 2009

This paper tests whether or not manufacturing specialization, employment growth, establishment size, employment size, industrial mix in manufacturing, regional difference between the Capital region and the others and so on are empirically related to manufacturing employment volatility levels across 203 municipalities called shi-gun-gu during the period 1990~2006. Using the spatial econometric analysis of cross sectional data, the municipalities tending to be more volatile are more specialized; they have higher-than-average employment growth rates, smaller establishment and employment sizes, regardless of any industrial mix in manufacturing; and they tend to be located in the Capital region. Unlike existing foreign literature based upon the spatial econometric analysis of cross sectional data, this paper finds that volatility of growth in a municipality is negatively rather than positively influenced by volatility of growth in its neighboring municipalities.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.35-72
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• 2008

This paper examines whether me effects of product demand shocks on employment are different between unionized and non-unionized firms, using new firm-level longitudinal data in Korea over the period 1997~2004. The estimation result shows that the effects of both negative and positive demand shocks on employment are smaller in unionized firms than in non-unionized firms. The result implies that unions appear to provide their members with job stability in response to negative demand shocks, while playing a very limited role in employment determination in response to positive demand shocks leading to employment expansion.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.39-64
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• 2020

Typical business cycle models have difficulties in explaining key macroeconomic labor market variables, such as employment and unemployment, as they usually consider labor hour choices only. In this paper, we introduce labor market search and matching frictions into a New Keynesian nominal rigidity model and estimate it by Bayesian methods to examine the dynamics of the key labor market variables and business cycles in Korea. The results show that unemployment rates are largely explained by technology shocks, which affect the labor demand side, as well as labor supply shocks. In addition, wage bargaining shocks originating from the bargaining process between firms and workers have non-negligible negative effects on output and employment growth, and careful measures need to be taken to limit their adverse effects.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.71-101
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• 2011

Using an establishment-level panel data drawn from the employment insurance administrative DB, this study investigates the relationship between elderly and youth employment in Korea. The primary focus of interest is whether or not the ageing of workforce and an increase in elderly employment have negative impacts on youth employment. In the regression using the full sample, we find the evidence that a movement in elderly employment and ageing workforce are positively related to youth employment. However, we do not find consistent evidence of the positive impact of the elderly employment on youth employment in the estimations using sub-samples divided by various criteria.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.29-60
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• 2005

This paper investigates how firms adjust wages, employment and hours in response to demand shifts. It focuses on rigidities and asymmetries in such adjustments. Major findings are as follows. First, wage adjustments are fairly small compared with worker adjustments. Second, wage adjustments are asymmetric with respect to sales growth: there is no responsiveness of wage growth when sales are declining, while adjustments are significantly positive when sales are rising. On the contrary, worker adjustments are symmetric with respect to demand shifts. Third, while workers are linearly adjusted to the sales growth, some nonlinearity is observed in the wage adjustment. Fourth, hours are generally nonresponsive to demand shocks. Finally, union firms cut wages rather than workers in the face of negative demand shocks.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.53-95
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• 2015

This paper first constructs an occupation code-skill match for the Korean labor market by following Autor-Dorn classification on the tasks framework. Over the last 34 years, middle-skill jobs have vanished enormously, while high-skill and low-skill jobs have both increased. Also, jobs have polarized more rapidly in recessions and changed uniquely by pushing old workers into middle and low-skilled jobs and the inter-sector reallocation of workers. Furthermore, jobless recoveries in the recent business cycle could have been alleviated considerably if job polarization had been mitigated.

• Proceedings of the Korean Labor Economic Association Conference
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• 1999.12a
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• pp.21-39
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• 1999

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.45-54
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• 2012

Published employment statistics do not provide enough information about the relationship of unemployment and economic and business conditions. This study investigates long-run equilibrium relations and short-run adjustment process of unemployment and discouraged unemployment with major price variables in the business coincident and lagging framework. Speed of adjustment from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium is found to be relatively faster for discouraged unemployment that appears more responsive to changes in most of explanatory variables. Discouraged unemployment is found to reflect reality and suggested to be a more meaningful statistical index.