• Title/Summary/Keyword: 고객수 분석

Search Result 2,555, Processing Time 0.039 seconds

Factors Affecting Management Process Inefficiency of Knowledge Service Firms (지식서비스기업의 관리프로세스 비효율에 영향을 미치는 요인 연구)

  • Ahyun Kim;Bo Seong Yun;Yong Jin Kim
    • Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.69-97
    • /
    • 2019
  • Knowledge service firms are able to have higher 'Organizational Performance (OP)' by improving efficiency in management processes on customer problem solving. This study explores the role of inefficiency that has been overlooked up to now compared to the management process efficiency. We also suggest in this study 'Hierarchical Culture (HC)' and 'IT Relatedness (IR)' as the factors influencing the inefficiency of management processes, and propose the moderating effect of 'Task Difficulty (TD)' on the relationship between independent factors and 'Inefficiency of Business Process(IP)'. The results of analysis show that 'HC' has a positive effect on 'IP', and 'IR' has a negative effect on 'IP'. 'TD' was significant moderator of between independent variables and 'IP'. 'IP' was shown to play a full mediating role between independent factors and 'OP'. In conclusion, knowledge service firms are desired to reduce 'HC' and enhance 'IR' by minimizing unnecessary formal procedures, securing flexibility in decision making through appropriate empowerment, creating a smooth flow of knowledge, and enhancing the level of IT resource management and utilization. In addition, in order to effectively reduce 'IP', it is required that a company with a high degree of 'TD' to more reduce a 'HC' and a company with a low degree of 'TD' to more enhance a 'IR'.

Effect of the Influential Factors on Brand Equity (브랜드 자산가치의 형성에 미치는 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Seuk-Jung
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
    • /
    • v.8
    • /
    • pp.233-267
    • /
    • 2001
  • The management environment in Korea today is undergoing rapid changes; in particular, domestic corporations and businesses are confronting formidable adversity with IMF crisis and WTO. Though cost cutback, higher quality, rapid production, and diversification of products were accepted as important requirements for competitiveness in the past, they have been replaced by brand power. Consumption patterns have changed their focus from function to image orientation. This is why managers in corporations have invested enormous amounts of resources into producing powerful brands, which can attract consumers' attention greatly enough to improve the image of their products. Brands are regarded as a vital vehicle for marketing strategies and thus as a legal asset. Brands with remarkable and favorable image can secure a loyal consumer groups stable revenues. M & A, currently active between corporations, makes brand equity all the more important. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effect of internal marketing and increased brand diversification on brand equity by combining them as influential factors with marketing mix factor. For this purpose, literature review was make on previous fragmented studies of influential factors on brand equity build-up. Based on the findings of this study, some operational implications were suggested for marketing managers. The findings and implications of the present study are as follows; First, efficient communication among organization members was found to have a significant effect on product quality. Second, job satisfaction and efficient communication among members was shown to significantly influence price policies. Thirdly, efficient communication among organization workers proved to have a significant effect on distribution strategies. Forth, efficient communication among members was demonstrated to significantly influence advertisement and other public-relations activities. Fifth, opacity of market environment appeared to have a significant effect on product quality, prior market entrance as perceived by organization members turned to be of negative influence on product quality. Sixth, opacity of market environment was found to have a significant effect on price policies. Seventh, opacity of market environment was shown to be of significant effect on distribution strategies. Eighth, grater opacity of market environment proved to improve advertisement and other public-relations activities. Ninth, price policies, distribution strategies, advertisement and public-relations activities were found to have a significant effect on brand equity value. To sum up these findings, in order for corporations and businesses to cope with consumers' needs that are increasingly segmented, internal marketing strategies and brand diversification should be implemented so as to generate greater synergy effect. It is also important to stress that differentiated, higher competitiveness should be secured for Korean corporations and businesses to survive in the drastically changing, globalized market environment. In this regard, continuous and long-term management strategies for brand equity build-up should be ensured and is essential in the present unlimited competition. The last but not least important point to notice is that to increase brand equity value, intensive investment and constant emphasis should be made on internal marketing management on intra-organizational members before strengthening external marketing.

  • PDF

Usability index evaluation system for mobile WAP service (무선인터넷 서비스 사용성 지수 평가 체계)

  • Park, Hwan-Su
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2008.02b
    • /
    • pp.152-157
    • /
    • 2008
  • The customer satisfaction of WAP service greatly relies on the usability of the service due to the limited display size of a mobile phone and limitation in realizing UI (User Interface) for function keys, browser, and OS (operating system) Currently, a number of contents providers develop and deliver varying services, and thus, it is critical to control quality level of UI in consistent standards and manner. This study suggests usability index evaluation system to achieve consistent UI quality control of various WAP services. The system adopts both top-down and bottom-up approaches. The former concerns deriving UI design components and evaluation checklists for the WAP, based on the usability attributes and UI principles. The latter concerns deriving usability-related evaluation checklists from the established UI design features, and then grouping them from the viewpoint of usability principles and attributes. This bidirectional approach has two outstanding advantages: it allows thorough examination of potential elements that can cause usability problems from the standpoint of usability attributes, and also derives specific evaluation elements from the perspective of UI design components that are relevant to the real service environment. The evaluation system constitutes a hierarchical structure by networking usability attributes, UI guideline which indicates usability principles for each attribute, and usability evaluation checklist for each UI component that enables specific evaluation. Especially, each evaluation checklist contains concrete contents and format so that it can be readily marked in O/X. The score is based on the ratio of number of items that received positive answer to the number of total items. This enables a quantitative evaluation of the usability of mobile WAP service. The validity of the proposed evaluation system has been proved through comparative analysis with the real usability problems based on the user test. A software was developed that provides guideline for evaluation objects, criteria and examples for each checklist, and automatically calculates a score. The software was applied to evaluating and improving the real mobile WAP service.

  • PDF

Study on the channel of bipolar plate for PEM fuel cell (고분자 전해질 연료전지용 바이폴라 플레이트의 유로 연구)

  • Ahn Bum Jong;Ko Jae-Churl;Jo Young-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
    • /
    • v.8 no.2 s.23
    • /
    • pp.15-27
    • /
    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper is to improve the performance of Polymer electrolyte fuel cell(PEMFC) by studying the channel dimension of bipolar plates using commercial CFD program 'Fluent'. Simulations are done ranging from 0.5 to 3.0mm for different size in order to find the channel size which shoves the highst hydrogen consumption. The results showed that the smaller channel width, land width, channel depth, the higher hydrogen consumption in anode. When channel width is increased, the pressure drop in channel is decreased because total channel length Is decreased, and when land width is increased, the net hydrogen consumption is decreased because hydrogen is diffused under the land width. It is also found that the influence of hydrogen consumption is larger at different channel width than it at different land width. The change of hydrogen consumption with different channel depth isn't as large as it with different channel width, but channel depth has to be small as can as it does because it has influence on the volume of bipolar plates. however the hydrogen utilization among the channel sizes more than 1.0mm which can be machined in reality is the most at channel width 1.0, land width 1.0, channel depth 0.5mm and considered as optimum channel size. The fuel cell combined with 2cm${\times}$2cm diagonal or serpentine type flow field and MEA(Membrane Electrode Assembly) is tested using 100W PEMFC test station to confirm that the channel size studied in simulation. The results showed that diagonal and serpentine flow field have similarly high OCV and current density of diagonal (low field is higher($2-40mA/m^2$) than that of serpentine flow field under 0.6 voltage, but the current density of serpentine type has higher performance($5-10mA/m^2$) than that of diagonal flow field under 0.7-0.8 voltage.

  • PDF

Methodology for Identifying Issues of User Reviews from the Perspective of Evaluation Criteria: Focus on a Hotel Information Site (사용자 리뷰의 평가기준 별 이슈 식별 방법론: 호텔 리뷰 사이트를 중심으로)

  • Byun, Sungho;Lee, Donghoon;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.23-43
    • /
    • 2016
  • As a result of the growth of Internet data and the rapid development of Internet technology, "big data" analysis has gained prominence as a major approach for evaluating and mining enormous data for various purposes. Especially, in recent years, people tend to share their experiences related to their leisure activities while also reviewing others' inputs concerning their activities. Therefore, by referring to others' leisure activity-related experiences, they are able to gather information that might guarantee them better leisure activities in the future. This phenomenon has appeared throughout many aspects of leisure activities such as movies, traveling, accommodation, and dining. Apart from blogs and social networking sites, many other websites provide a wealth of information related to leisure activities. Most of these websites provide information of each product in various formats depending on different purposes and perspectives. Generally, most of the websites provide the average ratings and detailed reviews of users who actually used products/services, and these ratings and reviews can actually support the decision of potential customers in purchasing the same products/services. However, the existing websites offering information on leisure activities only provide the rating and review based on one stage of a set of evaluation criteria. Therefore, to identify the main issue for each evaluation criterion as well as the characteristics of specific elements comprising each criterion, users have to read a large number of reviews. In particular, as most of the users search for the characteristics of the detailed elements for one or more specific evaluation criteria based on their priorities, they must spend a great deal of time and effort to obtain the desired information by reading more reviews and understanding the contents of such reviews. Although some websites break down the evaluation criteria and direct the user to input their reviews according to different levels of criteria, there exist excessive amounts of input sections that make the whole process inconvenient for the users. Further, problems may arise if a user does not follow the instructions for the input sections or fill in the wrong input sections. Finally, treating the evaluation criteria breakdown as a realistic alternative is difficult, because identifying all the detailed criteria for each evaluation criterion is a challenging task. For example, if a review about a certain hotel has been written, people tend to only write one-stage reviews for various components such as accessibility, rooms, services, or food. These might be the reviews for most frequently asked questions, such as distance between the nearest subway station or condition of the bathroom, but they still lack detailed information for these questions. In addition, in case a breakdown of the evaluation criteria was provided along with various input sections, the user might only fill in the evaluation criterion for accessibility or fill in the wrong information such as information regarding rooms in the evaluation criteria for accessibility. Thus, the reliability of the segmented review will be greatly reduced. In this study, we propose an approach to overcome the limitations of the existing leisure activity information websites, namely, (1) the reliability of reviews for each evaluation criteria and (2) the difficulty of identifying the detailed contents that make up the evaluation criteria. In our proposed methodology, we first identify the review content and construct the lexicon for each evaluation criterion by using the terms that are frequently used for each criterion. Next, the sentences in the review documents containing the terms in the constructed lexicon are decomposed into review units, which are then reconstructed by using the evaluation criteria. Finally, the issues of the constructed review units by evaluation criteria are derived and the summary results are provided. Apart from the derived issues, the review units are also provided. Therefore, this approach aims to help users save on time and effort, because they will only be reading the relevant information they need for each evaluation criterion rather than go through the entire text of review. Our proposed methodology is based on the topic modeling, which is being actively used in text analysis. The review is decomposed into sentence units rather than considering the whole review as a document unit. After being decomposed into individual review units, the review units are reorganized according to each evaluation criterion and then used in the subsequent analysis. This work largely differs from the existing topic modeling-based studies. In this paper, we collected 423 reviews from hotel information websites and decomposed these reviews into 4,860 review units. We then reorganized the review units according to six different evaluation criteria. By applying these review units in our methodology, the analysis results can be introduced, and the utility of proposed methodology can be demonstrated.

Goodness-of-Fit of Job Burnout Scale in Private Security Guards (민간경비원을 위한 직무소진 척도 문항의 적합도)

  • Lee, Jun-Woo;Lee, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Eui-Young
    • Korean Security Journal
    • /
    • no.39
    • /
    • pp.161-183
    • /
    • 2014
  • The job burnout of the private security guards who provide services through contact with customers can affect the overall the private security industry. So the managers need to make efforts to diagnose and evaluate the job burnout and provide continuous provision for the repatriation effect. However, up to the present, the job burnout measure for the private security guards has not been provided, so the objectivity of the information is questionable. For this reason, in order to establish the goodness of fit of the job burnout scale for private security guards based on the contents of the job burnout scale that was being provided to other service employees, this research aims to provide the scale to provide objective information compared with that of the past by applying the Rasch model of the item response theory. To achieve this purpose, the data on 379 private security guards working for the private security guard companies in the Gyeonggi region were collected, and the data were processed to suit the research purpose using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 18.0, Winsteps programs. Through these research procedures, the following conclusion was obtained. With regard to the private security guards' measure of job burnout, as a result of factor analysis through the collected data, 4 questions were deleted, and as a result of the analysis of the goodness of the fit based on 18 questions, 4 questions were found to be inappropriate questions that did not satisfy the standard value, and the scope of the difficulty level of the questions from - 98 to 1.30 and the response reaction of a 5-point scale were found to suit the final private security guards' job burnout scale. In other words, the conclusion that it is appropriate to measure the private security guards job burnout scale with 3 factors and 13 questions was obtained. So if private security guards companies collect systematic data using the scale established in this research, and practice refresher training accordingly, they can reduce the private security guards' job burnout.

  • PDF

Analysis on Topokki Franchise Industry and Its Proactive Activities: Focused on Kukdae Toppokki (떡볶이 프랜차이즈 산업의 분석과 그에 따른 선제적 대응 방안: 국대떡볶이를 중심으로)

  • Chi, I hyun;Han, Kyu won;Choi, Yae jin;Son, Jeong Sook;Kim, Ji-Hern
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
    • /
    • v.5 no.1
    • /
    • pp.27-47
    • /
    • 2014
  • This research was conducted on the purpose of seeking the measures of how to cope with the changing industry of Topokki franchises. Despite of the fact the number of Kukdae Topokki's stores is quite smaller than that of its competitors, such as Jaws Topokki and Addal Topokki, Kukdae Topokki is recognized as one of the front-runners in the industry. But the competition in the topokki industry has become fiercer, as the market became saturated. To find a desirable solutions, this study analyzes past-to-current status of the Topokki industry by dividing it into 4 stages and provides few strategies that Kukdae Topokki can apply to the 4th stage where 'brand awareness' is very important. To this end, few drawbacks of Kukdae Topokki are proposed as the following. First, the brand image that Kukdae Topokki pursue does not correspondent with the image in consumer's mind. Second, Kukdae Topokki has selected the wrong targeting group. It aims for the image of 'retro' to target people in their 30-40s. However, most of the consumers are people in their 20-30s. Third, the taste of Kukdae Topokki is not uniform among franchises. Fourth, the awareness and accessability are low. To provide a proactive actions for the next stages, several solutions are proposed as following. First, By managing consistent Kukdae Topokki's Brand Touch point, consumers may have a strong image on the brand by communicating with consumers consistently at all touch points. Second, instead of the existing guide from the head office(franchiser), a standardized criteria for the usage of materials and periodical education for franchisee are needed. Third, to raise the awareness of Kukdae Topokki, open many branches in the area where the main consumers(20-30s women) are mostly spread out.

Critical Success Factor of Noble Payment System: Multiple Case Studies (새로운 결제서비스의 성공요인: 다중사례연구)

  • Park, Arum;Lee, Kyoung Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.59-87
    • /
    • 2014
  • In MIS field, the researches on payment services are focused on adoption factors of payment service using behavior theories such as TRA(Theory of Reasoned Action), TAM(Technology Acceptance Model), and TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior). The previous researches presented various adoption factors according to types of payment service, nations, culture and so on even though adoption factors of identical payment service were presented differently by researchers. The payment service industry relatively has strong path dependency to the existing payment methods so that the research results on the identical payment service are different due to payment culture of nation. This paper aims to suggest a successful adoption factor of noble payment service regardless of nation's culture and characteristics of payment and prove it. In previous researches, common adoption factors of payment service are convenience, ease of use, security, convenience, speed etc. But real cases prove the fact that adoption factors that the previous researches present are not always critical to success to penetrate a market. For example, PayByPhone, NFC based parking payment service, successfully has penetrated to early market and grown. In contrast, Google Wallet service failed to be adopted to users despite NFC based payment method which provides convenience, security, ease of use. As shown in upper case, there remains an unexplained aspect. Therefore, the present research question emerged from the question: "What is the more essential and fundamental factor that should takes precedence over factors such as provides convenience, security, ease of use for successful penetration to market". With these cases, this paper analyzes four cases predicted on the following hypothesis and demonstrates it. "To successfully penetrate a market and sustainably grow, new payment service should find non-customer of the existing payment service and provide noble payment method so that they can use payment method". We give plausible explanations for the hypothesis using multiple case studies. Diners club, Danal, PayPal, Square were selected as a typical and successful cases in each category of payment service. The discussion on cases is primarily non-customer analysis that noble payment service targets on to find the most crucial factor in the early market, we does not attempt to consider factors for business growth. We clarified three-tier non-customer of the payment method that new payment service targets on and elaborated how new payment service satisfy them. In case of credit card, this payment service target first tier of non-customer who can't pay for because they don't have any cash temporarily but they have regular income. So credit card provides an opportunity which they can do economic activities by delaying the date of payment. In a result of wireless phone payment's case study, this service targets on second of non-customer who can't use online payment because they concern about security or have to take a complex process and learn how to use online payment method. Therefore, wireless phone payment provides very convenient payment method. Especially, it made group of young pay for a little money without a credit card. Case study result of PayPal, online payment service, shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who reject to use online payment service because of concern about sensitive information leaks such as passwords and credit card details. Accordingly, PayPal service allows users to pay online without a provision of sensitive information. Final Square case result, Mobile POS -based payment service, also shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who can't individually transact offline because of cash's shortness. Hence, Square provides dongle which function as POS by putting dongle in earphone terminal. As a result, four cases made non-customer their customer so that they could penetrate early market and had been extended their market share. Consequently, all cases supported the hypothesis and it is highly probable according to 'analytic generation' that case study methodology suggests. We present for judging the quality of research designs the following. Construct validity, internal validity, external validity, reliability are common to all social science methods, these have been summarized in numerous textbooks(Yin, 2014). In case study methodology, these also have served as a framework for assessing a large group of case studies (Gibbert, Ruigrok & Wicki, 2008). Construct validity is to identify correct operational measures for the concepts being studied. To satisfy construct validity, we use multiple sources of evidence such as the academic journals, magazine and articles etc. Internal validity is to seek to establish a causal relationship, whereby certain conditions are believed to lead to other conditions, as distinguished from spurious relationships. To satisfy internal validity, we do explanation building through four cases analysis. External validity is to define the domain to which a study's findings can be generalized. To satisfy this, replication logic in multiple case studies is used. Reliability is to demonstrate that the operations of a study -such as the data collection procedures- can be repeated, with the same results. To satisfy this, we use case study protocol. In Korea, the competition among stakeholders over mobile payment industry is intensifying. Not only main three Telecom Companies but also Smartphone companies and service provider like KakaoTalk announced that they would enter into mobile payment industry. Mobile payment industry is getting competitive. But it doesn't still have momentum effect notwithstanding positive presumptions that will grow very fast. Mobile payment services are categorized into various technology based payment service such as IC mobile card and Application payment service of cloud based, NFC, sound wave, BLE(Bluetooth Low Energy), Biometric recognition technology etc. Especially, mobile payment service is discontinuous innovations that users should change their behavior and noble infrastructure should be installed. These require users to learn how to use it and cause infra-installation cost to shopkeepers. Additionally, payment industry has the strong path dependency. In spite of these obstacles, mobile payment service which should provide dramatically improved value as a products and service of discontinuous innovations is focusing on convenience and security, convenience and so on. We suggest the following to success mobile payment service. First, non-customers of the existing payment service need to be identified. Second, needs of them should be taken. Then, noble payment service provides non-customer who can't pay by the previous payment method to payment method. In conclusion, mobile payment service can create new market and will result in extension of payment market.

Personification of On-line Shopping Mall -Focusing on the Social Presence- (온라인 쇼핑몰의 의인화 전략 -사회적 실재감을 중심으로-)

  • Park, Ju-Sik
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.31 no.2
    • /
    • pp.143-172
    • /
    • 2012
  • While e-commerce market(B2C) grows rapidly, many experts argue that EC(B2C) transactions have not reached its full potential. A notable difference between online and offline consumer markets that is suppressing the growth of EC(B2C) is the decreased presence of human and social elements in the online shopping environments. Generally online shopping lacks human warmth and sociability. In this study, social presence in online shopping mall was proposed as a substitute for face-to-face social interaction in the traditional commerce and author explored what variables affect social presence(human warmth and sociability) on online shopping malls and how human warmth and sociability can influence on online store loyalty. To achieve research objectives, we reviewed literatures related with marketing, psychology and communication research areas. Based on literature review, we proposed a research model on the online shopping mall. To examine the proposed research model, we gathered data by using a self-report questionnaire. Respondents consists of online shoppers with at least five or more times of purchase experience in online shopping malls. Because social presence is a feeling which needs frequent contacts with malls to experience, respondents must have enough purchase experiences. The empirical results are as follows : First, shopping mall's customization efforts influence perceived social presence on the mall significantly. Second, shopping mall's responsiveness influences perceived social presence significantly. Third, perceived activity of community of online shopping mall influences perceived social presence significantly. Mall managers have to activate their customer community to reinforce social presence, resulting in trust building. Finally, perceived social presence influences trust and enjoyment on the mall significantly. And then trust and enjoyment on the mall affect store loyalty significantly. From these findings it can be inferred that perceived social presence appears determinant which is critical to the formation of core variables(trust and loyalty) in existing online shopping papers.

  • PDF

Why Central Banks Intervene? (왜 중앙은행은 개입하는가?)

  • Ko, Jong-Moon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.273-298
    • /
    • 1995
  • 1960년대, 각국의 환율이 미국의 달러화에 연동(pegging)된 고정환율제도를 근간으로 하는 브레튼우즈(Bretton Woods)체제하에서 각국의 중앙은행은 환율을 일정한 범위 내로 유지하기 위한 정책수단으로 외환시장개입을 적극 활용하였다. 1973년 브레튼우즈체제하의 고정환율제도가 붕괴되고 변동환율제도가 채택된 이후에도 각국의 외환시장개입정책은 계속되었다. 1980년대에 레이건 행정부의 재정팽창정책과 미연방준비은행의 긴축통화정책으로 금리의 지속적인 상승과 미달러화의 큰폭의 절상이 이루어 졌다. 이에 국제무역의 위기를 우려한 미국, 독일, 프랑스, 영국, 일본 등 선진 5개국(Group-5, G5)은 1985년 9월 22일 미 달러화의 절하를 위해 외환시장에 공동으로 개입할 것을 주내용으로 한 플라자합의(Plaza Agreement)를 발표하였다. 그후에도 1987년 2월 23일 열린 루브르협정(Louvre Accord, G-6 Communique)에서 환율을 현수준으로 유지시키기 위한 목표환율대(Target zone)를 설정하고 외환시장개입을 통해 이를 유지하기로 합의한 바 있다. 이후의 구미각국은 환율의 관리를 위하여 국가가 공동으로 외환시장에 개입하곤 했다. 본 논문은 1987년 루브르협정 이후 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 외환시장 개입 정책이 소기의 목적을 달성했는지의 여부를 규명해 보고자 한다. 즉, Federal Reserve, Bundesbank 및 Bank of Japan의 외환시장개입이 현물환율시장(spot market)에서 각각의 변동성을 감소 시켰는지의 여부를 독일의 마르크화 및 일본의 엔화를 중심으로 규명해 보고자 한다. 1981년 루브르협정이후, 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행은 미국 달러화에 대한 마르크 및 엔화의 환율을 안정시키기 위해 꾸준히 외환시장에 개입해 왔다. 외환시장의 개입유형은 크게 태화외환시장개입(non-sterilized intervention)과 불태화외환시장개입(sterilized intervention)으로 구분할 수 있는데, 전자는 외환당국이 민간부문과 외화채권을 거래함으로써 본원통화의 크기가 변하는 개입형태를 의미하는 반면에 후자는 외환당국의 순외화자산의 크기변화가 본원통화의 변화를 초래하지 않는 경우이다. 즉, 불태화외환시장개입은 순외화자산의 증감이 순국내자산의 증감과 반비례해서 이루어지기 때문에 본원통화의 크기에는 변함이 없다. 외환시장개입이란 외환당국이 은행간 시장에서 민간시잔 참가자들과 행하는 적극적인 외환거래를 의미한다. 반면, 넓은 의미에서의 외환시장개입에는 수동적 외환시장개입이라고 불리는 고객거래가 포함된다. 후자의 거래는 국내통화 및 외화표시 자산의 상대적 공급규모를 변화시킨다는 의미에서 전통적외환시장개입과 동일한 효과를 갖기 때문에 광의의 외환시장 개입으로 분류된다. 외환시장의 개입목적은 크게 세 가지로 분류할 수 있다. 첫째, 환율의 안정적 운영이다. 환율수준이 자유롭게 변화되는 변동환율제도하에서 환율의 지나친 변동으로 인한 실물경제로의 부정적인 영향을 최소화하기 위해서 환율의 지나친 변동으로 인한 실물경제로의 부정적인 영향을 최소화하기 위해서 환율의 안정을 정책 목표로 설정하는 경우와 고정환율제도하에서 환율을 일정수준으로 유지시키기 위해서 외환당국이 외환시장에 개입하는 경우가 여기에 해당된다고 볼 수 있다. 둘째, 환율수준의 균형수준으로의 조정이다. 이때 야기될 수 있는 문제점으로는 환율균형 수준을 어떻게 정의, 추정할 것이냐 하는 점과 목표환율정책이 다른 정책목표와 상충될 수 있다는 점이다. 셋째, 외환당국이 공적외환보유액이나 구성을 변화시킬 목적으로 외환시장에 개입하는 경우이다. 이때의 외환시장개입은 현재의 환율수준이 개입으로 인하여 과도하게 이탈하는 문제가 발생하지 않을 것을 전제로 한다. 본고에서는 현물환율에 영향을 미치는 요소로 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 개입효과, 요일효과, 통화의 공급량(M1), 무역적자의 폭, 산업의 생산량, 생산가격지수(PPI), 소비자물가지수(CPI), 실업률, 옵션의 내재적 변동성 등을 고려한다. 환율의 변동성을 추정하는 식은 GARCH 모델이 사용된다. 본 추정모델은 Dominguez(1993)의 확장이다. Dominguez (1993)의 논문은 GARCH 모델을 써서 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 시장개입효과를 분석했으나, 거시변수를 고려대상에서 제외시켰다. 본 논문은 위의 방법에 거시변수를 삽입하고 모델을 변형시켜서 더 확실한 시장개입효과와 거시변수효과를 밝혔다. 또한 옵션의 내제적 변동성을 구하는 과정에서 American option model을 사용하는 대신, Bourtha & Courtadon (1987)등이 밝힌 바와 같이 American style option이라 할지라도, European Model을 쓰면 더욱더 간편하고, 예측력도 American Model에 뒤지지 않음을 이용하여, European Model을 써서 내재적 변동성을 구한 다음 이것을 독립변수로 이용하였다. 본 모델의 추정 결과는 3국의 시장개입정책이 현물환율과 옵션의 내재적 변동성을 증가시켜서 Louvre 협정이후 각국은 시장개입의 목적을 달성하지 못한 것으로 나타났다.

  • PDF