• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.292-292
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 인공신경망을 이용한 통계적 모형을 구성하여 금강권역의 봄철(3~5월) 강수량 예측을 수행하였다. 통계적 모형의 예측인자로서는 NOAA 등에서 제공하는 AAO, AMM, AO 등 36종의 기후지수와 대상권역인 금강권역의 강수량, 기온 등의 기상인자 8종 등 총 44종의 기후지수를 활용하였다. 예측대상기간을 기준으로 선행기간(1~18개월)에 따른 상관성을 분석하여 상관도가 높은 10개의 기후지수를 예측인자로 선정하였다. 예측모형 형태는 10개의 입력층과 1개의 은닉층으로 되어 있는 인공신경망모형을 구성하였다. 모형 구성과정에서의 불확실성을 최소화하고 예측모형의 적합도를 높이기 위해 예측대상기간을 기준으로 과거 40년간의 자료에 대해 임의로 20년간 자료를 선별하여 모형을 구성하고, 너머지 기간에 대해 검증하는 무작위 교차검증을 반복하여, 예측대상기간 및 예측시점에 따라 각각 적합도가 높은 1000개의 예측모형을 선별하였다. 과거기간(1991~2022년)을 대상으로 예측시점에 따라 각 연도별 1000개의 예측결과를 도출하여, 실제 해당년도의 관측값과의 비교를 통해 예측성을 분석하였다. 예측성은 크게 예측치의 최대값과 최소값 범위 및 예측치의 25%~75% 범위 안에 관측치가 포함될 확률, 그리고 과거 관측값의 3분위 구간을 기준으로 한 예측확률 등을 평가하였다. 관측치가 예측치의 범위 안에 포함될 확률은 평균 87.5%, 예측치의 25~75% 범위 안에 포함될 확률은 30.2%로 나타났으며, 3분위 예측확률은 35.6%로 분석되었다. 관측값과의 일대일 비교는 정확도가 떨어지지만 3분위 예측확률이 33.3% 이상인 점으로 볼 때 예측성은 확보된다고 볼 수 있다. 다만, 우리나라 강수량의 불규칙성과 통계적 모형 특성상 과거 관측되지 않은 패턴에 대해서는 예측이 어려운 문제가 있어, 특정년도의 예측결과가 관측치를 크게 벗어나는 경우도 종종 나타나고 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.198-198
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• 2020

기후 내적 변동성(Climate Internal Variability, CIV)은 기후를 이해하는 데 중요한 역할을 하며 기후예측에 있어 주요 불확실성 원인들 중 하나이다. 본 연구는 다양한 이산화탄소 배출 시나리오에 대해 CIV와 기후학적 평균(Climatological Mean, CM)을 추정하는 것을 목표로 한다. 확률론적 날씨생성기(Stochastic Weather Generator)를 이용하여 국내 40개 기상 관측소에 대해, 30년에 해당하는 시단위 시계열 100개 앙상블을 생성하였다. CIV는 Detrend 방법과 Differenced 방법을 이용하여 추정되었으며, noise 계산값과 비교하였다. 그 결과, CIV 값과 noise 값들 사이의 correlation이 매우 높았으며, 제시된 방법론이 신뢰할 수 있음을 검증하였다. 국내 40개 지역에 적용하여 계산된 CIV와 CM의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 국내의 대부분의 지역에 있어 평균적으로 CM과 CIV는 미래에 증가할 것이며, 그 증가 정도는 RCP 8.5의 경우와 먼 미래END(2071-2100년) 기간에서 더 커질 것이다; (2) CM과 CIV의 미래 변화의 특성은 강수의 특성 지수에 따라 다르다. 강수량의 양을 나타내는 3개의 지수(총 강수량, totPr, 일 최대 강수량, maxDa 및 시간당 최대 강수량, maxHr)와 강수량의 발생일수를 나타내는 지수(무강우 일수, nonPr)의 특성은 크게 다르다. (3) CIV와 CM의 변화 요인들 사이의 관계를 조사하면 maxDa와 maxHr에 대해서는 그들 사이에 높은 상관관계가 있지만 다른 지수에는 그렇지 않다. (4) 국내에서 CIV 값이 공간적으로 변동성이 큰 경우는 계절적으로 여름이며, 이는 totPr 및 maxDa에서만 유효하다. 시단위 시계열 앙상블을 생성하여 추정된 기후내적변동성 정보는 기후 변화의 영향을 평가하고 적절한 적응 및 대응 전략을 개발하는 데 도움이 될 것이다.

• Journal of Life Science
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.770-778
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• 2013

To determine the seasonal variation of bacterial community in the seawater of Gwangyang Bay, three hundred thirty six bacterial strains were isolated on February, May, July and October 2011. Amplified Ribosomal DNA Restriction Analysis (ARDRA) was used to construct the phylotyes of the isolates using the restriction endonuclease, Hae III. Diversity indices of ARDRA patterns were calculated. One hundred and one phylotypes including 40 unique pylotypes were found at the 80% similarity level. Partial 16S rRNA genes of one hundred thirty nine strains representing each phylotypes were sequenced and compared. Bacterial community composed of 4 different phyla which include Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes. Proteobacteria was the prevailing phylum in all seasons, followed by Bacteroidetes in winter, spring and autumn while Actinobacteria in summer. At the family level, Flavobacteriaceae dominated in winter and spring and Pseudoalteromonadaceae did in summer and autumn. Genera Altererythrobacter, Loktanella, Pseudoalteromonas and Vibrio were encountered in all seasons. The most diverse bacterial community was found in autumn followed by the order of spring, winter and summer.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.140-149
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• 2018

Seasonal variations in the community structure of larval fish assemblage in Jinhae Bay were investigated in February, May, August and November of 2015, and in the same months in 2016. During the study period, a total of 28 larvae species belonging to 24 families were collected. The dominant species were Clupea pallasii, Liparis tanakae, Callionymidae sp., Sillago japonica, Ernogrammus hexagrammus and Engraulis japonica. These six species accounted for 77.6% of the total number of larvae during the survey period. The larvae of C. pallasii and L. tanakae were exclusively caught in February 2015 and 2016, while those of Apogon lineatus and Sillago japonica were exclusively caught in August 2015 and 2016. Overall, species diversity of the fish larvae was highest in February and August, although it was relatively low in May. The results of the non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) analysis using the number of individual larval fish showed that they are divided into four seasonal groups. Our results showed that the community of larval fish in Jinhae Bay was affected by seasonal changes in temperature and the emergence of spawning fish species. Additionally, we suggest that the high abundance of larval fish came from around Jam-do and the northern part of Chilcheon-do; these locations are the main spawning grounds of Jinhae Bay.

• Korean Journal of Weed Science
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.4-10
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• 1984

This experiment was conducted to determine the change in weed flora with season and cultivated crop and land. There are 44 species in 38 genera and 18 families, consisting of 22 annual, 11 biennial and 9 perennial weeds in uplands in Jeonbug Province. Digitaria sanguinalis Scopol. occurred with the highest frequency of 67.2% and in decreasing order Portulaca oleracea L., Chenopodium album L. and Erigeron canadensis L. followed. About 60% of total sites studied indicated Simpson`s index ranging from 0.20 to 0.50. The Simpson`s index decreased from 0.65 on June 8 to 0.15 on November 10. Dominant weed species were Alopecurus aequalis Sosbol, and Polygonum hydropiper Spach in double cropping paddy field, but D. sanguinalis and P. oleracea were the dominant species in uplands. In reclaimed uplands various weed species including, 4rtemisia asiatica Nakai occurred almost equally. Average Simpson`s index for six crops studied was 0.40 and irrespective of the crops being cultivated P. oleracea and D. sanguinalis were dominant weed species and Y. hydropiper, C. album, Exolus blitum Grenier and E. canadensis were sub-dominant.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.87-95
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• 2020

The Incheon airport is a gateway to and from the Republic of Korea and has a great influence on the image of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the number of airport passengers in the long term in order to maintain the quality of service at the airport. In this study, we compared the predictive performance of various time series models to predict the air passenger demand at Incheon Airport. From 2002 to 2019, passenger data include trend and seasonality. We considered the naive method, decomposition method, exponential smoothing method, SARIMA, PROPHET. In order to compare the capacity and number of passengers at Incheon Airport in the future, the short-term, mid-term, and long-term was forecasted by time series models. For the short-term forecast, the exponential smoothing model, which weighted the recent data, was excellent, and the number of annual users in 2020 will be about 73.5 million. For the medium-term forecast, the SARIMA model considering stationarity was excellent, and the annual number of air passengers in 2022 will be around 79.8 million. The PROPHET model was excellent for long-term prediction and the annual number of passengers is expected to be about 99.0 million in 2024.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.201-217
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• 2022

The United States is one of the largest producers of major crops such as wheat, maize, and soybeans, and is a major exporter of these crops. Therefore, it is important to estimate the crop production of the country in advance based on reliable long- term weather forecast information for stable crops supply and demand in Korea. The purpose of this study is to improve the seasonal predictability of the agro-climatic indices over the United States by using regional-scale daily temperature. For long-term numerical weather prediction, a dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a regional climate model. As the initial and lateral boundary conditions of WRF, the global hourly prediction data obtained from the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM) are used. The integration of WRF is performed for 22 years (2000-2021) for period from June to December of each year. The empirical quantile mapping, one of the bias correction methods, is applied to the timeseries of downscaled daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature to correct the model biases. The uncorrected and corrected datasets are referred WRF_UC and WRF_C, respectively in this study. The daily minimum (maximum) temperature obtained from WRF_UC presents warm (cold) biases over most of the United States, which can be attributed to the underestimated the low (high) temperature range. The results show that WRF_C simulates closer to the observed temperature than WRF_UC, which lead to improve the long- term predictability of the temperature- based agro-climatic indices.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.516-524
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• 2015

This study was characteristics of bird community conducted to from 2009 to 2010 in Sihwa South Grassland, Gyeonggi-do, Korea. Total 49 species were recorded and the sum of maximum counts was 2,258 individuals. Species diversity was 2.21 and the species richness was 6.22. In South Reclaimed, we recorded maximum score of 38 species. and maximum score of 1,083 individuals in Dinosaur Egg Fossil. Comparison between areas were use average species diversity and species richness. Mostly Dinosaur Egg Fossil and South Reclaimed were higher than Sihwa Lake upstream. As a results of the ANOVA test, all areas were different. also, Sihwa Lake upstream only difference was that the bird community. In the season there was a significant difference between the Number of species and species richness. Number of species and species richness were significant differences depending on the season. but individuals and species diversity were no significant differences. In the year there was a no significant difference between the Number of species and individuals. but species diversity and species richness were significant differences. As a result, Between areas was different patterns of bird communities. but including water space Dinosaur Egg Fossil and South Reclaimed were showed a similar bird communities and bird diversity was higher. In the season, the resident was using of consistent patterns. but, There were differences depending on the migratory patterns of populations. In the year, every year was communities of a similar patterns. Sihwa South Grassland is of the high conservation value ecosystem as the only domestic. Propose an opinion for maintaining biodiversity when planning future habitat composition and environmental decrease.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to provide a compact overview of the state-of-art image mosaic algorithms in commercial softwares and to propose objective assessment method of that. Among them, several algorithms, widely used and high quality, result in the mosaic image by applying to seven different kinds of seasons of KOMPSAT-2 images and then consequently each result is analyzed visually. Moreover, quality index is suggested to assess the similarity with colors regarding adjacency images and then it is performed by comparing and analyzing the visual and quantitative results. Consequently, we found out the suggested quality index is feasible.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.102-106
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• 2013

The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon has a negative correlation with that of the western North Pacific summer monsoon. Based on the relationship, we suggest the potential predictability of Northeast Asian summer precipitation by using the relationship. The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) properly represents the intensity of the western North Pacific summer monsoon. It also dominates climate anomalies in the western North Pacific-East Asian region in summertime. The estimates of the Northeast Asian summer rainfall anomalies using WNPSH variability have a greater benefit than those using the western North Pacific monsoon index.