• Title/Summary/Keyword: 계절적 영향

Search Result 1,380, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Role of the prediction skill of near-surface temperature in seasonal forecasting: A case study of U.S. droughts (근지표면 온도 예측성이 계절적 예보에 미치는 영향: 미국 가뭄의 사례연구)

  • Kam, Jonghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2021.06a
    • /
    • pp.73-73
    • /
    • 2021
  • 가뭄의 계절적 예측성을 개선하기 위해서는 대기-지면-해양의 상호 작용이 현실적으로 모의할 수 있는 지구 기후 예보 모델의 개선이 필수적이다. 제한적인 기후 예보 모델의 예측성으로 인하여 다중 기후 모델들의 다중 앙상블 계절 예보 시스템이 제안되었다. 2008년에 제안된 북미 다중 모델 다중 앙상블 시스템(North American Multimodel Multiensemble System; NMME)은 다양한 모델 개발팀의 참여로 현재까지 운영되면서 계절적 예측성 연구에 큰 이바지를 하였다. 본 연구에서는 NMME 프로젝트에 참여하는 기후 예보 모델들의 북방 여름철 근지표면 온도과 강우량의 예측성을 진단하고 이들의 상관 관계의 강도를 관측데이터와 비교 분석하였다. 대부분의 NMME 모델들에서는 관측데이터에서 보다 강한 음의 상관 관계를 보였다. 이런 근지표면 온도와 강우량의 강한 상관 관계로 우수한 근지 표면 온도 예보는 각각의 해마다 그 역할이 다른 것을 발견되었다. 예를 들어 가문 여름에는 우수한 근지표면 온도 예보가 강우량 예보에 도움이 되고 강우량이 많은 여름에는 우수한 근지표면 온도 예보는 오히려 강우량 예측성을 제한하게 된다. 따라서 기존의 기후 예보 모델들에서 근지표면 온도와 강우량의 상관관계를 사실적으로 나타낼 수 있도록 모델 개선이 요구된다. 마지막으로 관측데이터와 기후 모델데이터에서 태평양과 대서양의 해수면 온도와 미국의 북방 여름철 날씨의 관계를 비교하였다. 근지표면 온도과 강우량에 대한 제한적 예측성에 비해, 대부분의 NMME 기후 예보 모델들에서 해수면 온도의 예측기술은 우수함을 발견하였고 몇몇 모델들에서는 미국의 북방 여름철 기후에 영향력을 주는 대서양과 태평양의 지역까지 잘 모사하는 것을 발견하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 보다 우수한 기후 예보 기술을 위해 앙상블 평균 예보값만이 아닌 NMME의 계절적 예보를 선택적인 사용이 필요함을 제안하였고 앞으로 북미 대륙 뿐만이 아니라 유럽-아시아의 계절적 이상 기후 예측성에 대한 연구 필요성을 강조하였다.

  • PDF

부정기건화물선과 유조선시황 큰 폭으로 하락

  • 한국선주협회
    • 해운
    • /
    • no.6 s.17
    • /
    • pp.11-13
    • /
    • 2005
  • 최근들어 부정기선시장과 유조선시장은 선복수급 불균형과 계절적인 영향 등으로 큰 폭으로 조정을 받는 양상을 보이고 있는데 반해, 원양정기선시장을 강보합세를 유지하고 있다.

  • PDF

Analysis on Rainfall Seasonality using Precipitation Concentration Index (강수집중지수를 이용한 강수의 계절성 분석)

  • Lee, Joon-Hak;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2012.05a
    • /
    • pp.289-293
    • /
    • 2012
  • 강수량의 계절적 집중의 정도를 의미하는 계절성은 토양침식과 작물의 재배 및 성장, 댐 운영 등 수자원 관리를 위한 계획 수립에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요소 중에 하나이다. 우리나라의 경우 호우사상이 대부분 4월부터 10월 동안에 발생하고 있으며, 특히 여름철에 집중도가 높은 편이다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 강수의 계절성을 분석하기 위하여, 강수집중지수를 적용하였다. 강수집중지수는 1년 동안의 강수분포의 시간적 특성을 나타내는 지표로서 1980년에 제안되었으나, 국내에는 아직까지 적용된 사례가 많지 않다. 본 연구에서는 6개 관측지점의 1957~2010년 기간 동안의 연단위 강수집중지수와 계절성 지수를 각각 계산하여 비교하였다. 연구결과, 강수의 계절성을 분석하는데, 강수집중지수가 유용하게 사용될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

  • PDF

Characteristics of Seasonal Variation to Sedimentary Environment at the Estuary area of the Nakdong (낙동강 하구역의 계절적인 퇴적환경 변화특성)

  • Yoon, Eun-Chan;Lee, Jong-Sup
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.372-389
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this study, we formed a detailed grid at the estuary area of the Nakdong and collected the surface sediments. Particle size analysis and comparison with existing data were conducted to investigate the characteristics of seasonal and long-term changes in the sediments. As a result of investigation, the distribution of the sediments showed a great change per season and was greatly influenced by the quantity of outfall discharge at the Nakdong estuary barrier and the incident wave climate. The sandy sediments showed dominant movement toward the front of Jinwoodo west of the estuary area of the Nakdong due to the influence of the ENE wave, the annually-dominant wave. And the muddy sediments showed deposition by being moved toward the deep open sea along with a current. The present conditions of the sediments at the estuary area of the Nakdong showed great differences from the results of previous studies.

A Numerical Modeling Study on the Seasonal Variability in the Gulf of Alaska (알라스카 만의 계절변화에 대한 수치모형 실험)

  • Bang, In-Kweon;Zygmunt Kowlik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.6 no.3
    • /
    • pp.309-325
    • /
    • 1994
  • Ocean circulation in the Gulf of Alaska is remarkably constant throughout the year despite of being forced by one of the largest seasonal wind stresses in the world. To explain the small seasonal changes in the transport of Alaska Stream. a set of numerical models is employed. First a diagnostic approach is applied to reproduce circulation from the observed density structure. The results reveals the very small seasonal changes in the Alaska Stream transport. Next a series of the prognostic models is used: a barotropic model. a flat bottom baroclinic model, and baroclinic model with topography. These models reveal the influence of topography and baroclinicity on the ocean's response to the seasonal wind forcing. The intercomparisons of the various model results suggest that the seasonal response of the baroclinic ocean is primary barotropic and the resultant barotropic circulation is weakened by the scattering effect of the bottom topography.

  • PDF

Seasonal Dynamics of Enzymetic Activities and Functional Diversity in Soils under Different Organic Managements (시용 유기물을 달리한 토양에서 미생물 군락의 효소활성과 기능적 다양성의 계절적 변화)

  • Park, Kee-Choon;Kremer, Robert J.
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.42 no.4
    • /
    • pp.307-316
    • /
    • 2009
  • Soil microbial activity and diversity are affected by organic sources applied to improve soil quality and fluctuate seasonally. We investigated the effects of municipal compost (MC), poultry litter (PL), and cover crops of spring oats and red clover (RC) on soil enzyme activities, and soil bacterial community-level physiological profiling (CLPP) in a Mexico silt loam in North Central Missouri, USA. Temporal patterns of these parameters were observed by periodic five soil sampling from spring to fall over a two year period. MC increased soil dehydrogenase (DH) activity consistently beginning about three months after MC application; fluorescein diacetate (FDA) hydrolytic activity significantly began to increase by the September of the first year but fluctuated during the following period. DH activity responded more directly to the amount or properties of organic residues in soils while FDA hydrolysis and CLPP were generally influenced by composition of organic sources, and enzyme activities and CLPP showed seasonal variation, which depended on organic sources and soil moisture. MC and cover crops may be useful organic sources for enhancing general soil microbial activity and altering soil microbial diversity, respectively. Because microbial activities and diversity are dynamic and subject to seasonal changes, the effects of organic amendments on these parameters should be investigated frequently during a growing season.

Seasonal characteristics of zooplankton community in the Mid-eastern part of the Yellow Sea (황해 중동부 해역 동물플랑크톤의 계절적 분포 특성)

  • 황학진;최중기
    • 한국해양학회지
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.24-34
    • /
    • 1993
  • In order to study the seasonal characteristics of species composition and abundance, zooplankton samples were collected from April 1987 to June 1988 with bimonthly intervals in the Mid-Eastern part of the Yellow sea. Among the 24 species of 18 genera occurred in this study area, 17 species are copepods. Noctiluca scintillant has greatly influenced on the distribution of the zooplankton in the coastal area and some copepods may be excluded by its great occurrence. the seasonal variation of abundance of copepods accounting for 30-63.4% of total zooplankton were more varied among stations in the coastal area than in the offshore. It suggests that environmental factors are more variable in the coastal area than in the offshore. In the Copepod community, Acartia omorii, Paracalanus parvus and Corycaeus affinis were predominant in April and June, from August to December and in December, respectively. Sagita enflata as a Kuroshio indicator species, occurred in the study area from August to December. The great occurrence of warm water species, Doliolum sp. in October and the occurrence of Sagitta enflata from August to December suggested that there is a influx of the tributaries of Kuroshio current into the study area. It appeared that the seasonal characteristics of species composition and abundance of zooplankton were affected by the seasonal variation of water mass.

  • PDF

Seasonal Effects Removal of Unsupervised Change Detection based Multitemporal Imagery (다시기 원격탐사자료 기반 무감독 변화탐지의 계절적 영향 제거)

  • Park, Hong Lyun;Choi, Jae Wan;Oh, Jae Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.36 no.2
    • /
    • pp.51-58
    • /
    • 2018
  • Recently, various satellite sensors have been developed and it is becoming more convenient to acquire multitemporal satellite images. Therefore, various researches are being actively carried out in the field of utilizing change detection techniques such as disaster and land monitoring using multitemporal satellite images. In particular, researches related to the development of unsupervised change detection techniques capable of extracting rapidly change regions have been conducted. However, there is a disadvantage that false detection occurs due to a spectral difference such as a seasonal change. In order to overcome the disadvantages, this study aimed to reduce the false alarm detection due to seasonal effects using the direction vector generated by applying the $S^2CVA$ (Sequential Spectral Change Vector Analysis) technique, which is one of the unsupervised change detection methods. $S^2CVA$ technique was applied to RapidEye images of the same and different seasons. We analyzed whether the change direction vector of $S^2CVA$ can remove false positives due to seasonal effects. For the quantitative evaluation, the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve and the AUC (Area Under Curve) value were calculated for the change detection results and it was confirmed that the change detection performance was improved compared with the change detection method using only the change magnitude vector.