• Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.323-329
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• 2009

Purpose: Radioimmunoassay (RIA) was usually performed by the batch assay. To improve the efficiency of RIA without increase of the cost and time, random assay could be a choice. We investigated the possibility of the random assay using automatic dispenser by assessing the agreement between batch assay and random assay. Materials and Methods: The experiments were performed with four items; Triiodothyronine (T3), free thyroxine (fT4), Prostate specific antigen (PSA), Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). In each item, the sera of twenty patients, the standard, and the control samples were used. The measurements were done 4 times with 3 hour time intervals by random assay and batch assay. The coefficient of variation (CV) of the standard samples and patients' data in T3, fT4, PSA, and CEA were assessed. ICC (Intraclass correlation coefficient) and coefficient of correlation were measured to assessing the agreement between two methods. Results: The CVs (%) of T3, fT4, PSA, and CEA measured by batch assay were 3.2$\pm$1.7%, 3.9$\pm$2.1%, 7.1$\pm$6.2%, 11.2$\pm$7.2%. The CVs by random assay were 2.1$\pm$1.7%, 4.8$\pm$3.1%, 3.6$\pm$4.8%, and 7.4$\pm$6.2%. The ICC between the batch assay and random assay were 0.9968 (T3), 0.9973 (fT4), 0.9996 (PSA), and 0.9901 (CEA). The coefficient of correlation between the batch assay and random assay were 0.9924(T3), 0.9974 (fT4), 0.9994 (PSA), and 0.9989 (CEA) (p<0.05). Conclusion: The results of random assay showed strong agreement with the batch assay in a day. These results suggest that random assay using automatic dispenser could be used in radioimmunoassay.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.349-359
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• 1997

Background : The signal pathways and their precise roles for acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by endotoxin (ETX) has not been established. Since there has been several in vitro experiments suggesting that activation of protein kinase C (PKC) pathway may be responsible for endotoxin-induced inflammatory reaction, we performed in vivo experiments in the rats with the hypothesis that PKC-inhibition can effectively prevent endotoxin-induced acute lung injury. Methods : We studied the role of PKC in ETX-induced ALI using PKC inhibitor (staurosporine, STP) in the rat Specific pathogen free male Sprague-Dawley weighted from 165 to 270g were used for the study. Animals were divided into the normal control (NC)-, vehicle control (VC)-, ETX-, PMA (phorbolmyristateacetate)-, STP+PMA-, and STP+ETX-group. PMA (50mg/kg) or ETX (7mg/kg) was instilled through polyethylen catheter after aseptic tracheostomy with and without STP (0.2mg/kg)-pretreatment STP was injected via tail vein 30min before intratracheal injection (IT) of PMA or ETX. Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was done 3-or 6-hrs after IT of PMA or ETX respectively, to measure protein concentration, total and differential cell counts. Results : The results were as follows. The protein concentrations in BALF in the PMA- and ETX-group were very higher than that of VC-group (p<0.001). When animals were pretreated with STP, the %reduction of the protein concentration in BALF was $64.8{\pm}8.5$ and $30.4{\pm}2.5%$ in the STP+PMA- and STP+ETX-group, respectively (p = 0.028). There was no difference in the total cell counts between the PMA-and VC-group (p = 0.26). However the ETX-group showed markedly increased total cell counts as compared to the VC- (p = 0.003) and PMA-group (p = 0.0027), respectively. The total cell counts in BALF were not changed after pretreatment with STP compared to the PMA- (p = 0.22) and ETX-group (p = 0.46). The percentage of PMN, but not alveolar macrophage, was significantly elevated in the PMA-, and ETX-group. Especially in the ETX-group, the percentage of PMN was 17 times higher than that of PMA (p < 0.001). The differential cell counts was not different between the PMA and STP+PMA On the contrary the STP+ETX-group showed decreased percentage of PMN (p = 0.016). There was no significant relationship between the protein concentration and the total or differential cell counts in each group. Conclusion : Pretreatment with PKC-inhibitor (staurosporine) partially but significantly inhibited ETX-induced ALI.

• Strategy21
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• s.46
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• pp.239-276
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• 2020

The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.47-58
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• 1981

Relationships between the electrical conductivity and the contents of the chloride, sulfate, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium and total major inorganic ions, and between each, chemical conservative constituents were calculated with the data which sampled at the lesions of Mulgeum and between Namji and Wondong from March 1974 to April 1980. Semilogarithmic relations were found between the electrical conductivity and the contents of monovalent ions, and logarithmic relations were found between the electrical conductivity and the contents of divalent ions at the both regions. The relational equations between the electrical conductivity $\lambda_{25}$and the contents of the major inorganic ions at Mulgeum are as follows: $log\;Cl(ppm)\;=\;2.37{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+0.733{\pm}0.141$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=1.12{\cdot}log\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+2.14{\pm}0.18$, $log\;Ca(ppm)=0.615{\cdot}log\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+1.67{\pm}0.12$, $log\;Mg(ppm)=0.756{\cdot}log\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+1.27{\pm}0.11$, $log\;Na(ppm)=2.82{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+0.551{\pm}0.133$, $log\;K(ppm)=1.33{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+0.136{\pm}0.095$, and total inorganic ions $C(ppm)=399{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)-0.9{\pm}14.6$. The relational equations between the electrical conductivity ($\lambda_{25}$) and the contents of the major inorganic ions at the region between Namji and Wondong a.e as follows: $log\;Cl(ppm)=4.27{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+0.380{\pm}0.138$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.915{\cdot}log\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+1.95{\pm}0.18$, $log\;Ca(ppm)=0.756{\cdot}log\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+1.74{\pm}0.12$, $log\;Mg(ppm)=1.00{\cdot}log\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+1.41{\pm}0.10$. $log\;Na(ppm)=2.47{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+0.614{\pm}0.065$, $log\;K(ppm)=1.62{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+0.030{\pm}0.060$, and total inorganic ions $C(ppm)=323{\cdot}\lambda_{25}(m{\mho}/cm)+11.7{\pm}9.3$. Logarithmic relations were found between each chemical conservative constituents at Mulgeum and the equations are as follows: $log\;Cl(ppm)=0.711{\cdot}log\;SO_4(ppm)+0.488{\pm}0.206$, $log\;Cl(ppm)=0.337{\cdot}log\;Ca(ppm)+0.822{\pm}0.130$, $log\;Cl(ppm)=0.605{\cdot}log\;Mg(ppm)-0.017{\pm}0.154$, $Cl(ppm)=0.676{\cdot}Na(ppm)+2.31{\pm}4.67$, $log\;Cl(ppm)=0.406{\cdot}log\;K(ppm)-0.092{\pm}0.112$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.378{\cdot}log\;Ca(ppm)+0.721{\pm}0.125$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.462{\cdot}log\;Mg(ppm)+0.107{\pm}0.118$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.592{\cdot}log\;Na(ppm)+0.313{\pm}0.191$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.308{\cdot}log\;K(ppm)-0.019{\pm}0.120$, $Ca(ppm)=0.262{\cdot}Mg(ppm)+0.74{\pm}1.71$. $log\;Ca(ppm)=1.10{\cdot}log\;Na(ppm)-0.243{\pm}0.239$, $Ca(ppm)=0.0737{\cdot}K(ppm)+1.26{\pm}0.73$, $log\;Mg(ppm)=0.0950{\cdot}Na(ppm)+0.587{\pm}0.159$, $log\;Mg(ppm)=0.0518{\cdot}K(ppm)+0.111{\pm}0.102$, and $Na(ppm)=0.0771{\cdot}K(ppm)+1.49{\pm}0.59$. Logarithmic relations were found between each chemical conservative constituents except a relationship between the chloride and calcium contents at the region between Namji and Wondong, and the equations are as follows : $log\;Cl(ppm)=0.312{\cdot}log\;SO_4(ppm)+0.907{\pm}0.210$, $log\;Cl(ppm)=0.458{\cdot}log\;Mg(ppm)+0.135{\pm}0.130$, $Cl(ppm)=0.484{\cdot}logNa(ppm)+0.507{\pm}0.081$, $Cl(ppm)=0.0476{\cdot}K(ppm)+1.41{\pm}0.34$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.886{\cdot}log\;Ca(ppm)+0.046{\pm}0.050$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.422{\cdot}log\;Mg(ppm)+0.139{\pm}0.161$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.374{\cdot}log\;Na(ppm)+0.603{\pm}0.140$, $log\;SO_4(ppm)=0.245{\cdot}log\;K(ppm)+0.023{\pm}0.102$, $log\;Ca(ppm)=0.587{\cdot}log\;Mg(ppm)+0.003{\pm}0.088$, $log\;Ca(ppm)=0.892{\cdot}log\;Na(ppm)+0.028{\pm}0.109$, $log\;Ca(ppm)=0.294{\cdot}log\;K(ppm)-0.001{\pm}0.085$, $log\;Mg(ppm)=0.600{\cdot}log\;Na(ppm)+0.674{\pm}0.120$, $log\;Mg(ppm)=0.440{\cdot}log\;K(ppm)+0.038{\pm}0.081$, and $log\;Na(ppm)=0.522{\cdot}log\;K(ppm)-0.260{\pm}0.072$.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.8-12
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• 1974

1. If one unity is given to the prongs whose ends touch each other for estimating the internal stresses occuring in it, the internal stresses which are developed in the open prongs can be evaluated by the ratio to the unity. In accordance with the above statement, an equation was derived as follows. For employing this equation, the prongs should be made as shown in Fig. I, and be measured A and B' as indicated in Fig. l. A more precise value will result as the angle (J becomes smaller. $CH=\frac{(A-B') (4W+A) (4W-A)}{2A[(2W+(A-B')][2W-(A-B')]}{\times}100%$ where A is thickness of the prong, B' is the distance between the two prongs shown in Fig. 1 and CH is the value of internal stress expressed by percentage. It precision is not required, the equation can be simplified as follows. $CH=\frac{A-B'}{A}{\times}200%$ 2. Under scheduled drying condition III the kiln, when the weight of a sample board is constant, the moisture content of the shell of a sample board in the case of a normal casehardening is lower than that of the equilibrium moisture content which is indicated by the Forest Products Laboratory, U. S. Department of Agriculture. This result is usually true, especially in a thin sample board. A thick unseasoned or reverse casehardened sample does not follow in the above statement. 3. The results in the comparison of drying rate with five different kinds of wood given in Table 1 show that the these drying rates, i.e., the quantity of water evaporated from the surface area of I centimeter square per hour, are graded by the order of their magnitude as follows. (1) Ginkgo biloba Linne (2) Diospyros Kaki Thumberg. (3) Pinus densiflora Sieb. et Zucc. (4) Larix kaempheri Sargent (5) Castanea crenata Sieb. et Zucc. It is shown, for example, that at the moisture content of 20 percent the highest value revealed by the Ginkgo biloba is in the order of 3.8 times as great as that for Castanea crenata Sieb. & Zucc. which has the lowest value. Especially below the moisture content of 26 percent, the drying rate, i.e., the function of moisture content in percentage, is represented by the linear equation. All of these linear equations are highly significant in testing the confficient of X i. e., moisture content in percentage. In the Table 2, the symbols are expressed as follows; Y is the quantity of water evaporated from the surface area of 1 centimeter square per hour, and X is the moisture content of the percentage. The drying rate is plotted against the moisture content of the percentage as in Fig. 2. 4. One hundred times the ratio(P%) of the number of samples occuring in the CH 4 class (from 76 to 100% of CH ratio) within the total number of saplmes tested to those of the total which underlie the given SR ratio is measured in Table 3. (The 9% indicated above is assumed as the danger probability in percentage). In summarizing above results, the conclusion is in Table 4. NOTE: In Table 4, the column numbers such as 1. 2 and 3 imply as follows, respectively. 1) The minimum SR ratio which does not reveal the CH 4, class is indicated as in the column 1. 2) The extent of SR ratio which is confined in the safety allowance of 30 percent is shown in the column 2. 3) The lowest limitation of SR ratio which gives the most danger probability of 100 percent is shown in column 3. In analyzing above results, it is clear that chestnut and larch easly form internal stress in comparison with persimmon and pine. However, in considering the fact that the revers, casehardening occured in fir and ginkgo, under the same drying condition with the others, it is deduced that fir and ginkgo form normal casehardening with difficulty in comparison with the other species tested. 5. All kinds of drying defects except casehardening are developed when the internal stresses are in excess of the ultimate strength of material in the case of long-lime loading. Under the drying condition at temperature of $170^{\circ}F$ and the lower humidity. the drying defects are not so severe. However, under the same conditions at $200^{\circ}F$, the lower humidity and not end coated, all sample boards develop severe drying defects. Especially the chestnut was very prone to form the drying defects such as casehardening and splitting.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.479-492
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• 1997

Background : Isoniazid(INH) and rifampicin(RFP) are potent antituberculous drugs which have made tuberculous disease become decreasing. In Korea, prescribed doses of INH and RFP have been different from those recommended by American Thoracic Society. In fact they were determined by clinical experience rather than by scientific basis. Even there has been. few reports about pharmacokintic parameters of INH and RFP in healthy Koreans. Method : Oral pharmacokinetics of INH were studied in 22 healthy native Koreans after administration of 300 mg and 400mg of INH to each same person successively at least 2 weeks apart. After an overnight fast, subjects received medication and blood samples were drawn at scheduled times over a 24-hour period. Urine collection was also done for 24 hours. Pharmacokinetics of RFP were studied in 20 subjects in a same fashion with 450mg and 600mg of RFP. Plasma and urinary concentrations of INH and RFP were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography(HPLC). Results : Time to reach peak serum concentration (Tmax) of INH was $1.05{\pm}0.34\;hrs$ at 300mg dose and $0.98{\pm}0.59\;hrs$ at 400mg dose. Half-life was $2.49{\pm}0.88\;hrs$ and $2.80{\pm}0.75\;hrs$, respectively. They were not different significantly(p > 0.05). Peak serum concentration(Cmax) after administration of 400mg of INH was $7.14{\pm}1.95mcg/mL$ which was significantly higher than Cmax ($4.37{\pm}1.28mcg/mL$) by 300mg of INH(p < 0.01). Total clearance(CLtot) of INH at 300mg dose was $26.76{\pm}11.80mL/hr$. At 400mg dose it was $21.09{\pm}8.31mL/hr$ which was significantly lower(p < 0.01) than by 300mg dose. While renal clearance(CLr) was not different among two groups, nonrenal clearance(CLnr) at 400mg dose ($18.18{\pm}8.36mL/hr$) was significantly lower than CLnr ($23.71{\pm}11.52mL/hr$) by 300mg dose(p < 0.01). Tmax of RFP was $1.11{\pm}0.41\;hrs$ at 450mg dose and $1.15{\pm}0.43\;hrs$ at 600mg dose. Half-life was $4.20{\pm}0.73\;hrs$ and $4.95{\pm}2.25\;hrs$, respectively. They were not different significantly(p > 0.05). Cmax after administration of 600mg of RFP was $13.61{\pm}3.43mcg/mL$ which was significantly higher than Cmax($10.12{\pm}2.25mcg/mL$) by 450mg of RFP(p < 0.01). CLtot of RFP at 450mg dose was $7.60{\pm}1.34mL/hr$. At 600mg dose it was $7.05{\pm}1.20mL/hr$ which was significantly lower(p < 0.05) than by 450mg dose. While CLr was not different among two groups, CLnr at 600 mg dose($5.36{\pm}1.20mL/hr$) was significantly lower than CLnr($6.19{\pm}1.56mL/hr$) by 450mg dose(p < 0.01). Conclusion : Considering Cmax and CLnr, 300mg, of INH and 450mg RFP might be sufficient doses for the treatment of tuberculosis in Koreans. But it remains to be clarified in the patients with tuberculosis.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.344-390
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• 1977

The purpose of this paper was to schedule optimum cutting strategy which could maximize the total yield under certain restrictions on periodic timber removals and harvest areas from an industrial forest, based on a linear programming technique. Sensitivity of the regulation model to variations in restrictions has also been analyzed to get information on the changes of total yield in the planning period. The regulation procedure has been made on the experimental forest of the Agricultural College of Seoul National University. The forest is composed of 219 cutting units, and characterized by younger age group which is very common in Korea. The planning period is devided into 10 cutting periods of five years each, and cutting is permissible only on the stands of age groups 5-9. It is also assumed in the study that the subsequent forests are established immediately after cutting existing forests, non-stocked forest lands are planted in first cutting period, and established forests are fully stocked until next harvest. All feasible cutting regimes have been defined to each unit depending on their age groups. Total yield (Vi, k) of each regime expected in the planning period has been projected using stand yield tables and forest inventory data, and the regime which gives highest Vi, k has been selected as a optimum cutting regime. After calculating periodic yields and cutting areas, and total yield from the optimum regimes selected without any restrictions, the upper and lower limits of periodic yields(Vj-max, Vj-min) and those of periodic cutting areas (Aj-max, Aj-min) have been decided. The optimum regimes under such restrictions have been selected by linear programming. The results of the study may be summarized as follows:- 1. The fluctuations of periodic harvest yields and areas under cutting regimes selected without restrictions were very great, because of irregular composition of age classes and growing stocks of existing stands. About 68.8 percent of total yield is expected in period 10, while none of yield in periods 6 and 7. 2. After inspection of the above solution, restricted optimum cutting regimes were obtained under the restrictions of Amin=150 ha, Amax=400ha, $Vmin=5,000m^3$ and $Vmax=50,000m^3$, using LP regulation model. As a result, about $50,000m^3$ of stable harvest yield per period and a relatively balanced age group distribution is expected from period 5. In this case, the loss in total yield was about 29 percent of that of unrestricted regimes. 3. Thinning schedule could be easily treated by the model presented in the study, and the thinnings made it possible to select optimum regimes which might be effective for smoothing the wood flows, not to speak of increasing total yield in the planning period. 4. It was known that the stronger the restrictions becomes in the optimum solution the earlier the period comes in which balanced harvest yields and age group distribution can be formed. There was also a tendency in this particular case that the periodic yields were strongly affected by constraints, and the fluctuations of harvest areas depended upon the amount of periodic yields. 5. Because the total yield was decreased at the increasing rate with imposing stronger restrictions, the Joss would be very great where strict sustained yield and normal age group distribution are required in the earlier periods. 6. Total yield under the same restrictions in a period was increased by lowering the felling age and extending the range of cutting age groups. Therefore, it seemed to be advantageous for producing maximum timber yield to adopt wider range of cutting age groups with the lower limit at which the smallest utilization size of timber could be produced. 7. The LP regulation model presented in the study seemed to be useful in the Korean situation from the following point of view: (1) The model can provide forest managers with the solution of where, when, and how much to cut in order to best fulfill the owners objective. (2) Planning is visualized as a continuous process where new strateges are automatically evolved as changes in the forest environment are recognized. (3) The cost (measured as decrease in total yield) of imposing restrictions can be easily evaluated. (4) Thinning schedule can be treated without difficulty. (5) The model can be applied to irregular forests. (6) Traditional regulation methods can be rainforced by the model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.1-38
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• 1972

1. Objective of the Study The objective of the study was to make fundamental suggestions for drawing a forest insurance system applicable in Korea by investigating forest insurance systems undertaken in foreign countries, analyzing the forest hazards occurred in entire forests of Korea in the past, and hearing the opinions of people engaged in forestry. 2. Methods of the Study First, reference studies on insurance at large as well as on forest insurance were intensively made to draw the characteristics of forest insurance practiced in main forestry countries, Second, the investigations of forest hazards in Korea for the past ten years were made with the help of the Office of Forestry. Third, the questionnaires concerning forest insurance were prepared and delivered at random to 533 personnel who are working at different administrative offices of forestry, forest stations, forest cooperatives, colleges and universities, research institutes, and fire insurance companies. Fourth, fifty three representative forest owners in the area of three forest types (coniferous, hardwood, and mixed forest), a representative region in Kyonggi Province out of fourteen collective forest development programs in Korea, were directly interviewed with the writer. 3. Results of the Study The rate of response to the questionnaire was 74.40% as shown in the table 3, and the results of the questionaire were as follows: (% in the parenthes shows the rates of response; shortages in amount to 100% were due to the facts of excluding the rates of response of minor respondents). 1) Necessity of forest insurance The respondents expressed their opinions that forest insurance must be undertaken to assure forest financing (5.65%); for receiving the reimbursement of replanting costs in case of damages done (35.87%); and to protect silvicultural investments (46.74%). 2) Law of forest insurance Few respondents showed their views in favor of applying the general insurance regulations to forest insurance practice (9.35%), but the majority of respondents were in favor of passing a special forest insurance law in the light of forest characteristics (88.26%). 3) Sorts of institutes to undertake forest insurance A few respondents believed that insurance companies at large could take care of forest insurance (17.42%); forest owner's mutual associations would manage the forest insurance more effectively (23.53%); but the more than half of the respondents were in favor of establishing public or national forest insurance institutes (56.18%). 4) Kinds of risks to be undertaken in forest insurance It would be desirable that the risks to be undertaken in forest insurance be limited: To forest fire hazards only (23.38%); to forest fire hazards plus damages made by weather (14.32%); to forest fire hazards, weather damages, and insect damages (60.68%). 5) Objectives to be insured It was responded that the objectives to be included in forest insurance should be limited: (1) To artificial coniferous forest only (13.47%); (2) to both coniferous and broad-leaved artificial forests (23.74%); (3) but the more than half of the respondents showed their desire that all the forests regardless of species and the methods of establishment should be insured (61.64%). 6) Range of risks in age of trees to be included in forest insurance The opinions of the respondents showed that it might be enough to insure the trees less than ten years of age (15.23%); but it would be more desirous of taking up forest trees under twenty years of age (32.95%); nevertheless, a large number of respondents were in favor of underwriting all the forest trees less than fourty years of age (46.37%). 7) Term of a forest insurance contract Quite a few respondents favored a contract made on one year basis (31.74%), but the more than half of the respondents favored the contract made on five year bases (58.68%). 8) Limitation in a forest insurance contract The respondents indicated that it would be desirable in a forest insurance contract to exclude forests less than five hectars (20.78%), but more than half of the respondents expressed their opinions that forests above a minimum volume or number of trees per unit area should be included in a forest insurance contract regardless of the area of forest lands (63.77%). 9) Methods of contract Some responded that it would be good to let the forest owners choose their forests in making a forest insurance contract (32.13%); others inclined to think that it would be desirable to include all the forests that owners hold whenerver they decide to make a forest insurance contract (33.48%); the rest responded in favor of forcing the owners to buy insurance policy if they own the forests that were established with subsidy or own highly vauable growing stock (31.92%) 10) Rate of premium The responses were divided into three categories: (1) The rate of primium is to be decided according to the regional degree of risks(27.72%); (2) to be decided by taking consideration both regional degree of risks and insurable values(31.59%); (3) and to be decided according to the rate of risks for the entire country and the insurable values (39.55%). 11) Payment of Premium Although a few respondents wished to make a payment of premium at once for a short term forest insurance contract, and an annual payment for a long term contract (13.80%); the majority of the respondents wished to pay the premium annually regardless of the term of contract, by employing a high rate of premium on a short term contract, but a low rate on a long term contract (83.71%). 12) Institutes in charge of forest insurance business A few respondents showed their desire that forest insurance be taken care of at the government forest administrative offices (18.75%); others at insurance companies (35.76%); but the rest, the largest number of the respondents, favored forest associations in the county. They also wanted to pay a certain rate of premium to the forest associations that issue the insurance (44.22%). 13) Limitation on indemnity for damages done In limitation on indemnity for damages done, the respondents showed a quite different views. Some desired compesation to cover replanting costs when young stands suffered damages and to be paid at the rate of eighty percent to the losses received when matured timber stands suffered damages(29.70%); others desired to receive compensation of the actual total loss valued at present market prices (31.07%); but the rest responded in favor of compensation at the present value figured out by applying a certain rate of prolongation factors to the establishment costs(36.99%). 14) Raising of funds for forest insurance A few respondents hoped to raise the fund for forest insurance by setting aside certain amount of money from the indemnity paid (15.65%); others wished to raise the fund by levying new forest land taxes(33.79%); but the rest expressed their hope to raise the fund by reserving certain amount of money from the surplus money that was saved due to the non-risks (44.81%). 15) Causes of fires The main causes of forest fires 6gured out by the respondents experience turned out to be (1) an accidental fire, (2) cigarettes, (3) shifting cultivation. The reponses were coincided with the forest fire analysis made by the Office of Forestry. 16) Fire prevention The respondents suggested that the most important and practical three kinds of forest fire prevention measures would be (1) providing a fire-break, (2) keeping passers-by out during the drought seasons, (3) enlightenment through mass communication systems. 4. Suggestions The writer wishes to present some suggestions that seemed helpful in drawing up a forest insurance system by reviewing the findings in the questionaire analysis and the results of investigations on forest insurance undertaken in foreign countries. 1) A forest insurance system designed to compensate the loss figured out on the basis of replanting cost when young forest stands suffered damages, and to strengthen credit rating by relieving of risks of damages, must be put in practice as soon as possible with the enactment of a specifically drawn forest insurance law. And the committee of forest insurance should be organized to make a full study of forest insurance system. 2) Two kinds of forest insurance organizations furnishing forest insurance, publicly-owned insurance organizations and privately-owned, are desirable in order to handle forest risks properly. The privately-owned forest insurance organizations should take up forest fire insurance only, and the publicly-owned ought to write insurance for forest fires and insect damages. 3) The privately-owned organizations furnishing forest insurance are desired to take up all the forest stands older than twenty years; whereas, the publicly-owned should sell forest insurance on artificially planted stands younger than twenty years with emphasis on compensating replanting costs of forest stands when they suffer damages. 4) Small forest stands, less than one hectare holding volume or stocked at smaller than standard per unit area are not to be included in a forest insurance writing, and the minimum term of insuring should not be longer than one year in the privately-owned forest insurance organizations although insuring period could be extended more than one year; whereas, consecutive five year term of insurance periods should be set as a mimimum period of insuring forest in the publicly-owned forest insurance organizations. 5) The forest owners should be free in selecting their forests in insuring; whereas, forest owners of the stands that were established with subsidy should be required to insure their forests at publicly-owned forest insurance organizations. 6) Annual insurance premiums for both publicly-owned and privately-owned forest insurance organizations ought to be figured out in proportion to the amount of insurance in accordance with the degree of risks which are grouped into three categories on the basis of the rate of risks throughout the country. 7) Annual premium should be paid at the beginning of forest insurance contract, but reduction must be made if the insuring periods extend longer than a minimum period of forest insurance set by the law. 8) The compensation for damages, the reimbursement, should be figured out on the basis of the ratio between the amount of insurance and insurable value. In the publicly-owned forest insurance system, the standard amount of insurance should be set on the basis of establishment costs in order to prevent over-compensation. 9) Forest insurance business is to be taken care of at the window of insurance com pnies when forest owners buy the privately-owned forest insurance, but the business of writing the publicly-owned forest insurance should be done through the forest cooperatives and certain portions of the premium be reimbursed to the forest cooperatives. 10) Forest insurance funds ought to be reserved by levying a property tax on forest lands. 11) In order to prevent forest damages, the forest owners should be required to report forest hazards immediately to the forest insurance organizations and the latter should bear the responsibility of taking preventive measures.