• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경험적 예측기법

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Development of a Device for Estimating the Optimal Artificial Insemination Time of Individually Stalled Sows Using Image Processing (영상처리기법을 이용한 스톨 사육 모돈의 인공수정적기 예측 장치 개발)

  • Kim, D.J.;Yeon, S.C.;Chang, H.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.677-688
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    • 2007
  • 돼지를 포함한 대부분의 동물은 일정한 발정주기를 가지고 일정한 시기에 배란을 하는 자연배란동물이지만, 토끼, 고양이, 밍크 등의 암놈은 교미자극에 의해 배란이 일어나는 유기배란동물이다. 또한 1년에 한 번만 발정하는 단발정동물과 1년에 수차례 발정하는 다발정동물이 있다. 이 중에서 모돈은 1년에 수차례 발정하는 다발정 동물로서 발정기에 들면 비발정기와는 다른 행동을 나타낸다(Diehl 등, 2001). 양돈가의 수익을 최대화하기 위해서는 비생산일수를 최소로 줄여야 한다. 모돈의 비생산일수를 줄일 수 있는 한 가지 방법은 성공적으로 교배를 시키는 것이다. 이처럼 성공적으로 교배를 시키기 위해서는 수정적기를 정확히 예측해야 한다. 만약 수정적기를 정확히 판단하지 못하여 수태가 되지 않으면, 비생산일수가 늘어나 손실을 입게 된다. 따라서 수정적기를 정확히 판단하는 것은 모돈의 성공적인 인공수정에 있어서 중요한 요소이다. 수정적기는 배란이 일어나기 전 10시간에서 12시간 사이이며, 발정이 시작되는 시점을 기준으로 하였을 때 경산돈의 경우 26시간에서 34시간 사이이고 미경산돈의 경우는 18시간에서 26시간 사이이다(Evans 등, 2001). 현재 하루에 두 번 모돈의 발정을 확인하는 것이 일반화되어 있으며, 이 때 웅돈을 접촉시키거나 육안관찰을 통하여 발정 유무를 판단한다. 이러한 방법에는 숙련된 기술과 풍부한 경험이 요구될 뿐만 아니라 총 소요노동력의 30% 정도가 요구된다(Perez 등, 1986). 하루에 두 번밖에 발정을 감지하지 않기 때문에 발정이 언제 시작되었는지를 정확히 알 수 없으며, 또한 발정의 대부분이 새벽에 시작되므로 수정적기를 정확히 판단하기란 매우 어렵다. 만약 발정을 감지했더라도 적기에 인공수정을 하지 못한다면, 수태율이 낮아지므로 경제적 손실이 초래된다. 현재 이러한 문제점 때문에 2회에서 3회에 걸쳐 인공수정을 하고 있으나 이에 따른 소요비용과 소요노동력 등은 양돈가의 부담을 가중시키는 요인이 되고 있다. 돼지는 발정기가 되면 비발정기에 나타내지 않던 외음부의 냄새를 맡는 행동, 귀를 세우는 행동 및 승가허용 행동 등을 나타낸다(Diehl 등, 2001). 또한 돼지는 비발정기에 비하여 발정기에 더 많은 활동량을 나타낸다(Altman, 1941; Erez and Hartsock, 1990). Freson 등(1998)은 스톨에서 개별적으로 사육되고 있는 모돈의 활동량을 적외선센서를 이용하여 측정함으로써 발정을 86%까지 감지하였다고 보고하였다. 그러나 이 연구는 단지 모돈의 발정을 감지하였을 뿐 번식관리에 있어서 가장 중요한 수정적기의 판단 기준을 제시하지 못하였다. 따라서, 본 연구는 스톨에서 사육되는 모돈의 활동량을 측정함으로써 발정시작시각을 감지하고 이를 기준으로 인공수정적기를 예측할 수 있는 인공수정적기 예측 장치를 개발한 후 이의 성능을 농장실증실험을 통하여 시험하고자 수행되었다.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

The Estimation of Arctic Air Temperature in Summer Based on Machine Learning Approaches Using IABP Buoy and AMSR2 Satellite Data (기계학습 기반의 IABP 부이 자료와 AMSR2 위성영상을 이용한 여름철 북극 대기 온도 추정)

  • Han, Daehyeon;Kim, Young Jun;Im, Jungho;Lee, Sanggyun;Lee, Yeonsu;Kim, Hyun-cheol
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_2
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    • pp.1261-1272
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    • 2018
  • It is important to measure the Arctic surface air temperature because it plays a key-role in the exchange of energy between the ocean, sea ice, and the atmosphere. Although in-situ observations provide accurate measurements of air temperature, they are spatially limited to show the distribution of Arctic surface air temperature. In this study, we proposed machine learning-based models to estimate the Arctic surface air temperature in summer based on buoy data and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2)satellite data. Two machine learning approaches-random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM)-were used to estimate the air temperature twice a day according to AMSR2 observation time. Both RF and SVM showed $R^2$ of 0.84-0.88 and RMSE of $1.31-1.53^{\circ}C$. The results were compared to the surface air temperature and spatial distribution of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They tended to underestimate the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, and the Baffin Bay region where no IABP buoy observations exist. This study showed both possibility and limitations of the empirical estimation of Arctic surface temperature using AMSR2 data.

The Geometrical Imagination of the MCU 'Phase 3' Movie (MCU '페이즈3'영화에 나타난 기하학적 상상력)

  • Kim, Young-Seon;Kim, Tae-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.132-142
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to interpret the MCU's universal worldview from the perspective of geometry and to storytell narrative elements with mathematical imagination. For storytelling, data from the Phase 3 series aired from 2016 to 2019 was used. The Phase 3 series stimulates the imagination of the public with the sense of reality shown in the narrative and images based on geometrical theory and various predictions about future technology. Imagination is the driving force for diverse and original thinking about the unexperienced, and the ability to find order in chaos and create new perceptions of matter. The power of imagination is very necessary not only in artistic activities, but also in the scientific field where logic and rationality are important. Bachelard's imagination aims for art, the primitive realm of human beings, and contains sincerity and passion for the wonders of nature and all things. By exploring the MCU's worldview and superhero narrative through geometrical logic and imagination-driven imagery, you can understand the cosmic messages and laws in the film. From a convergence point of view of art and science, various and original techniques based on mathematics and scientific imagination used in MCU video production will help to improve the quality of video analysis.

An exploration of the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and the victim's criminal damages: Variable selection based on random forest algorithm (범죄 및 피해자 특성과 범죄피해 내용의 관계 탐색: 랜덤포레스트 알고리즘에 기초한 변인선택)

  • Han, Yuhwa;Lee, Wooyeol
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 2022
  • The current study applied the random forest algorithm to Korean crime victim survey data collected biennially between 2010 and 2018 to explore the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and the victim's criminal damages. A total of 3,080 cases including gender, age (life cycle stage), type of crime, perpetrator acquisition, repeated victimization, psychological damage (depression, isolation, extreme fear, somatic symptoms, interpersonal problems, moving out to avoid people, suicidal impulses, suicide attempts), and emotional changes after victimization (changes in self-protection confidence, self-esteem, confidence in others, confidence in legal institutions, and respect for Korean legal system/law) were analyzed. Considering the features of data that are difficult to apply traditional statistical techniques, this study implemented random forest algorithms to predict crime and victim characteristics using the victim's criminal damages (psychological damage and emotional change) and selected good predictors using VSURF function in VSURF package for R. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the relationship between the type of crime and depression, extreme fear, somatic symptoms, and interpersonal problems, between perpetrator acquisition and somatic symptoms and interpersonal problems, and between repeated victimization and changes in respect for Korean legal system/law. Gender and life cycle stage (youth/adult/elderly) were found to be related to extreme fear and changes in self-protection confidence, respectively. However, more empirical evidence should be aggregated to explain the results as meaningful. The results of this study suggest that it is necessary to enhance the experts' knowledge and educate them on cases about the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and criminal damage. Strengthening their interview strategy and knowledge about law/rules were also needed to increase the effectiveness of the Korean victim assessment system.

A Classification Model for Customs Clearance Inspection Results of Imported Aquatic Products Using Machine Learning Techniques (머신러닝 기법을 활용한 수입 수산물 통관검사결과 분류 모델)

  • Ji Seong Eom;Lee Kyung Hee;Wan-Sup Cho
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.157-165
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    • 2023
  • Seafood is a major source of protein in many countries and its consumption is increasing. In Korea, consumption of seafood is increasing, but self-sufficiency rate is decreasing, and the importance of safety management is increasing as the amount of imported seafood increases. There are hundreds of species of aquatic products imported into Korea from over 110 countries, and there is a limit to relying only on the experience of inspectors for safety management of imported aquatic products. Based on the data, a model that can predict the customs inspection results of imported aquatic products is developed, and a machine learning classification model that determines the non-conformity of aquatic products when an import declaration is submitted is created. As a result of customs inspection of imported marine products, the nonconformity rate is less than 1%, which is very low imbalanced data. Therefore, a sampling method that can complement these characteristics was comparatively studied, and a preprocessing method that can interpret the classification result was applied. Among various machine learning-based classification models, Random Forest and XGBoost showed good performance. The model that predicts both compliance and non-conformance well as a result of the clearance inspection is the basic random forest model to which ADASYN and one-hot encoding are applied, and has an accuracy of 99.88%, precision of 99.87%, recall of 99.89%, and AUC of 99.88%. XGBoost is the most stable model with all indicators exceeding 90% regardless of oversampling and encoding type.

Development of Water Quality Management System in Daecheong Reservoir Using Geographic Information System (GIS를 이용한 저수지의 수질관리시스템 구축)

  • 한건연;백창현
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2004
  • The current industrial development and the increase of population in Daecheong Reservoir basin have produced a rapid increase of wastewater discharge. This has resulted in problem of water quality control and management. Although many efforts have been carried out, reservoir water quality has not significantly improved. In this sense, the development of water quality management system is required to improve reservoir water quality. The goal of this study is to design a GIS-based water quality management system for the scientific water quality control and management in the Daecheong Reservoir. For general water quality analysis, WASP5 model was applied to the Daecheong Reservoir. A sensitivity analysis was made to determine significant parameters and an optimization was made to estimate optimal values. The calibration and verification were performed by using observed water quality data for Daecheong Reservoir. A water quality management system for Daecheong Reservoir was made by connecting the WASP5 model to ArcView. It allows a Windows-based Graphic User Interface(GUI) to implement all operation with regard to water quality analysis. The proposed water quality management system has capability for the on-line data process including water quality simulation, and has a post processor far the reasonable visualization for various output. The modeling system in this study will be an efficient NGIS(National Geographic Information System) far planning of reservoir water quality management.

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Development of the pH Inhibition Model Adapting Pseudo Toxic Concentration (CPT) Concept for Activated Sludge Process (의사독성농도 (CPT) 개념을 도입한 활성슬러지 공정 pH 저해 모델 개발)

  • Ko, Joo-Hyung;Jang, Won-Ho;Im, Jeong-Hoon;Woo, Hae-Jin;Kim, Chang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.2037-2046
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    • 2000
  • It has been reported that the inhibition effect of pH on activated sludge follows noncompetitive inhibition kinetics. However. the noncompetitive inhibition kinetic equation can not be directly applied to pH inhibition because of the difficulty in quantification of pH in terms of inhibitor concentration. So, many empirical equations have been developed to describe the pH inhibition effect especially for acidic condition. In this research. the pseudo toxic concentration ($C_{PT}$) concept model to quantify pH inhibition effect on activated sludge was proposed and compared to other existing models. The $C_{PT}$ concept model can explain the reduction of the maximum specific growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$) caused by the pH inhibition more accurately than any other models, at a wide range of pH. The only model parameter. $K_I$ can be easily estimated by Lineweaver-Burk linearization method.

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A Study on the Analysis Effect Factors of Illegal Parking Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 불법주차 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Chang-Hee;Kim, Myung-Soo;Seo, So-Min
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid development in the economy and other fields as well, the standard of living in South Korea has been improved, and consequently, the demand of automobiles has quickly increased. It leads to various traffic issues such as traffic congestion, traffic accident, and parking problem. In particular, this illegal parking caused by the increase in the number of automobiles has been considered one of the main reasons to bring about traffic congestion as intensifying any dispute between neighbors in relation to a parking space, which has been also coming to the fore as a social issue. Therefore, this study looked into Daejeon Metropolitan City, the city that is understood to have the highest automobile sharing rate in South Korea but with relatively few cases of illegal parking crackdowns. In order to investigate the theoretical problems of the illegal parking, this study conducted a decision-making tree model-based Exhaustive CHAID analysis to figure out not only what makes drivers park illegally when they try to park vehicles but also those factors that would tempt the drivers into the illegal parking. The study, then, comes up with solutions to the problem. According to the analysis, in terms of the influential factors that encourage the drivers to park at some illegal areas, it was learned that these factors, the distance, a driver's experience of getting caught, the occupation and the use time in order, have an effect on the drivers' deciding to park illegally. After working on the prediction model, four nodes were finally extracted. Given the analysis result, as a solution to the illegal parking, it is necessary to establish public parking lots additionally and first secure the parking space for the vehicles used for living and working, and to activate the campaign for enhancing illegal parking crackdown and encouraging civic consciousness.

Determination of shear wave velocity profiles in soil deposit from seismic piezo-cone penetration test (탄성파 피에조콘 관입 시험을 통한 국내 퇴적 지반의 전단파 속도 결정)

  • Sun Chung Guk;Jung Gyungja;Jung Jong Hong;Kim Hong-Jong;Cho Sung-Min
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.09a
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    • pp.125-153
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    • 2005
  • It has been widely known that the seismic piezo-cone penetration test (SCPTU) is one of the most useful techniques for investigating the geotechnical characteristics including dynamic soil properties. As the practical applications in Korea, SCPTU was carried out at two sites in Busan and four sites in Incheon, which are mainly composed of alluvial or marine soil deposits. From the SCPTU waveform data obtained from the testing sites, the first arrival times of shear waves were and the corresponding time differences with depth were determined using the cross-over method, and the shear wave velocity profiles (VS) were derived based on the refracted ray path method based on Snell's law and similar to the trend of cone tip resistance (qt) profiles. In Incheon area, the testing depths of SCPTU were deeper than those of conventional down-hole seismic tests. Moreover, for the application of the conventional CPTU to earthquake engineering practices, the correlations between VS and CPTU data were deduced based on the SCPTU results. For the empirical evaluation of VS for all soils together with clays and sands which are classified unambiguously in this study by the soil behavior type classification Index (IC), the authors suggested the VS-CPTU data correlations expressed as a function of four parameters, qt, fs, $\sigma$, v0 and Bq, determined by multiple statistical regression modeling. Despite the incompatible strain levels of the down-hole seismic test during SCPTU and the conventional CPTU, it is shown that the VS-CPTU data correlations for all soils clays and sands suggested in this study is applicable to the preliminary estimation of VS for the Korean deposits and is more reliable than the previous correlations proposed by other researchers.

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