• KDI북한경제리뷰
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.23-38
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• 2020

본 자료에서는 1998년과 2017년의 수출유사도지수 변화를 파악함으로써 북한의 수출상품이 어떠한 소득수준의 국가와 유사한지 알아보았다. 1998년 수출유사도지수는 한국, 홍콩, 태국, 중국, 일본 순으로 높았으며 2017년에는 미얀마, 모로코, 튀니지, 방글라데시, 스리랑카 순으로 높은 것으로 나타났다. 단편적인 비교일 수 있으나, 1998년 북한의 수출 품목은 한국과 2017년에는 미얀마와 가장 유사하다고 해석 가능하다. 이어서 1998년과 2017년 북한의 수출품목의 비중변화를 관찰한 결과 광물성연료(HS 27)의 수출비중이 가장 크게 증가하였으며, 의류(HS 62), 광·슬래그·회(HS 26), 과실(HS 08), 의류(HS 61)가 뒤를 이었다. 반대로 2017년 1998년에 비해 수출비중이 가장 크게 감소한 품목으로는 전기기기(HS 85), 원자로·기계류(HS 84), 식물(HS 12), 플라스틱과 제품(HS 39), 인조스테이플 섬유(HS 55)이다. 비교분석을 위해 북한과 수출유사도지수가 가장 높은 10개 국가의 수출품목 비중 변화 역시 살펴보았는데, 자세한 품목의 비중변화는 부록의 <부표 1~10>에서 확인할 수 있다. 1998년과 2017년 각각 수출유사도지수가 가장 높았던 한국과 미얀마의 수출품목 변화는 특히 주목할 만하다. 전기기기(HS 85)의 수출이 한국에서는 가장 크게 증가한 반면, 북한에서는 가장 크게 수출이 감소한 상품이었으며, 미얀마의 경우 광물성연료(HS 27), 의류(HS 62), 광·슬래그(HS 26)의 수출이 증가한 것으로 드러난다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.527-534
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• 2020

A significant factor in construction work is cost. At early- and advanced-stage design, costs should be calculated to derive realistic cost estimates according to unit price calculation. Based on these estimates, the economic feasibility of construction work is assessed, and whether to proceed is determined. Through the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, the construction cost index has been calculated by indirect methods after both the producer price index and construction market labor have been reprocessed to easily adjust the price changes of construction costs in Korea, and the Institute has announced it since 2004. As of January 2000, however, the construction cost index was released, and this has a time constraint on the correction and use of past construction cost data to the present moment. Variables were calculated to compute a rough construction cost that utilized past construction costs through surveys of the producer price index and the construction market labor force consisting of the construction cost index. After significant independent variables among the many variables were selected through correlation analysis, the construction cost index from 1970 to 1999 was calculated and presented through multiple regression analysis. This study therefore has prominent significance in terms of proposing a method of calculating rough construction costs that utilize construction costs that pre-date the 2000s.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.29-66
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• 2018

This study constructs an energy-extended KLEM DB of 35 Korean industries, and estimates the elasticities of substitution under various nesting structures of production technologies. Unlike most existing studies that employed only three inputs, K, L, and E, we applied a dual approach where non-energy intermediate input M is also incorporated as a production input. Our dual approach which extended that of van der Werf (2008)'s 3-input model successfully identified and estimated the multi-nested production functions. We provide the estimates of the elasticities of substitution among 4 different energy sources as well. Our estimation results would be used for energy-environment model building for Korea.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.557-565
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• 2015

Sea level rise due to global warming causes seawater intrusion into aquifers in coastal areas. Seawater intrusion vulnerability index was developed using PSR (Pressure, State, Response) model and analysis hierarchy process (AHP). Coastal regions in Korea, Gangwon-do Sokcho-si, Incheon-si Ganghwa-gun, Chungcheongnam-do Taean-gun, Jeollanam-do Yeosu-si, Jindo-gun were chosen and 14 indicators were selected by considering the humanities, economic, social, environmental aspects. Re-scaling method was used for the standardization of indices and questionnaire survey was performed to calculate weight values for each index. The results showed that Yeosu-si was selected as the most vulnerable region to seawater intrusion. The seawater intrusion index developed in this research can be used to analyze the vulnerable regions to seawater intrusion and to establish a policy to minimize the seawater intrusion problems in coastal regions.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.917-930
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• 2021

Recently, as part of the crime prevention measures that focus on spatial characteristics on the determinants of crime-causing, interest in crime prevention (CPTED) through environmental design has been increasing. This study analyzed crime vulnerabilities in Ulju-gun for the purpose of establishing a master plan for crime prevention urban design (CPTED). The 12 indicators, including demographic, socioeconomic, and physical factors, were sampled from prior studies. As a next step, statistical analysis resulted in criminal vulnerability indexes. According to the analysis, districts with a high demographic crime vulnerability indexes were concentrated on apartment complexes, while districts with high socio-economic crime vulnerability indexes have low land prices and high proportion of female population. Also, the districts with high physical crime vulnerability indexes were found to be heavily distributed commercial ones with a large number of entertainment places. However, there was a limit to generalizing the indicators of previous studies to local governments with different regional characteristics. Therefore, further studies should be carried out by establishing additional indicators considering regional characteristics in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.380-381
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• 2023

최근 경제침체로 인해 지속되는 연체율 상승의 원인을 지역별 및 시차별로 분석하였다. 독립변수를 가계대출변수, 부동산지수변수, 경제지표변수로 나누었고 통계적 모델링을 통해 총 19 가지 변수로 연체율을 예측하였다. 각 지역마다 상이한 결과가 도출되었는데 이를 바탕으로 지역별 연체율 감소 정책을 제안한다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.119-131
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• 2010

Drought is one of disaster causing factors to produce severe damage in the World because drought is destroyed to the ecosystem as well as to make difficult the economy of the drought area. This study, using Palmer Drought Severity Index carries out correlation analysis with sea surface temperatures. Comparative analysis carries out by calculated Palmer Drought Severity Index and past drought occurrence year. Result of comparative analysis, PDSI indexes were in accord with the past drought. Cluster analysis for correlation analysis carries out using precipitation and temperature that is input datas palmer drought severity index, and the result of cluster analysis was classified as 6. Also, principal component carries out using result of cluster analysis. 14 principal component analyze out through principal component analysis. Using analyzed 14 principal component carries out correlation analysis with sea surface temperature that is delay time from 0month until 11month. Correlation analysis carries out sea surface temperatures and calculated cycle component of the low frequency through Wavelet Transform analysis form principal component. Result of correlation analysis, yang(+) correlation is bigger than yin(-) correlation. It is possible to check similar correlation statistically the area of sea surface temperature with sea surface temperature in the Pacific. Forecasting possibility of the future drought make propose using sea surface temperature.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.13-26
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• 2004

According to economic growth theory, location configuration of business enterprises engaged in specific industries has spatial affinity. In this research we defined industrial concentration index to measure industry agglomeration using the characteristics of dispersion parameter of negative binomial distribution, and used the industrial concentration index to examine aspect of spatial configuration change. We utilized Census on Basic Characteristics of Establishments of 1995 and 2000 to deduce industrral concentration indices of 7 knowledge-based industries and 9 strategy-based industries of Choongbuk Province and analyzed the aspect of spatial configuration change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.285-285
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• 2023

기후변화로 인한 변동성의 증가는 돌발 홍수, 홍수량 증가로 이외에도 강우 사상의 변화, 가뭄의 빈도 및 강도의 증대 등의 문제를 이어질 수 있다. 이러한 기후변화에 대응하기 위하여 기후변화 시나리오를 제시하고 이를 정책적으로 반영할 수 있도록 하고 있다. 기존 IPCC 5차 보고서에 활용한 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 시나리오에서는 온실가스 농도변화만을 반영하고 있으나, 최근 IPCC 6차 보고서에서는 사회적인 노력과 경제적 구조 등 전반적인 기후정책, 사회 불균형 등을 고려한 SSP(Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 시나리오를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 2가지 기후변화 시나리오의 차이점과 유사점을 강수 중심으로 평가하였다. 기존의 RCP 시나리오에 비하여 극한 강우 사상의 변화를 비교 및 평가하기 위하여 CORDEX-EA에서 제공하는 지역기후모델(Regional Climate Model; RCM) 기반에 시나리오를 수집하여 극한기후지수를 산정하였다. 극한기후사상을 비교하기 위하여 WMO에서 활용하는 ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) 지수 중 강우 관련 지수인 R10mm, RX1day, RX5day, RD95P, RD99P, SDII를 선정하여 시나리오 별로 결과를 비교하여 제시하였다. 또한, 기존의 연대기 기준의 평가방식에서 탈피하여 동일한 기온 상승 시점에 따라 변화를 확인하기 위한 분석절차를 수립하였다. 즉, 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ 및 4℃ 상승한 시점의 ETCCDI 지수를 산정하여 극한기후사상을 비교 및 평가하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.8
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• pp.589-601
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• 2022

Although drought is a natural phenomenon, its damage occurs in combination with regional physical and social factors. Especially, related to the supply and demand of various waters, drought causes great socio-economic damage. Even meteorological droughts occur with similar severity, its impact varies depending on the regional characteristics and water supply system. Therefore, this study assessed regional drought risk considering regional socio-economic factors and water supply system. Drought hazard was assessed by grading the joint drought management index (JDMI) which represents water shortage. Drought vulnerability was assessed by weighted averaging 10 socio-economic factors using Entropy, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Drought response capacity that represents regional water supply factors was assessed by employing Bayesian networks. Drought risk was determined by multiplying a cubic root of the hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. For the drought hazard meaning the possibility of failure to supply water, Goesan-gun was the highest at 0.81. For the drought vulnerability, Daejeon was most vulnerable at 0.61. Considering the regional water supply system, Sejong had the lowest drought response capacity. Finally, the drought risk was the highest in Cheongju-si. This study identified the regional drought risk and vulnerable causes of drought, which is useful in preparing drought mitigation policy considering the regional characteristics in the future.