• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결과값 예측기

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A Statistical model to Predict soil Temperature by Combining the Yearly Oscillation Fourier Expansion and Meteorological Factors (연주기(年週期) Fourier 함수(函數)와 기상요소(氣象要素)에 의(依)한 지온예측(地溫豫測) 통계(統計) 모형(模型))

  • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Lee, Byun-Woo;Kim, Byung-Chang;Lee, Yang-Soo;Um, Ki-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 1990
  • A statistical model to predict soil temperature from the ambient meteorological factors including mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, wind speed and snow depth combined with Fourier time series expansion was developed with the data measured at the Suwon Meteorolical Service from 1979 to 1988. The stepwise elimination technique was used for statistical analysis. For the yearly oscillation model for soil temperature with 8 terms of Fourier expansion, the mean square error was decreased with soil depth showing 2.30 for the surface temperature, and 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500-cm soil temperatures. The $r^2$ ranged from 0.913 to 0.988. The number of lag days of air temperature by remainder analysis was 0 day for the soil surface temperature, -1 day for 5 to 30-cm soil temperature, and -2 days for 50-cm soil temperature. The number of lag days for precipitaion, snow depth and wind speed was -1 day for the 0 to 10-cm soil temperatures, and -2 to -3 days for the 30 to 50-cm soil teperatures. For the statistical soil temperature prediction model combined with the yearly oscillation terms and meteorological factors as remainder terms considering the lag days obtained above, the mean square error was 1.64 for the soil surfac temperature, and ranged 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500cm soil temperatures. The model test with 1978 data independent to model development resulted in good agreement with $r^2$ ranged 0.976 to 0.996. The magnitudes of coeffcicients implied that the soil depth where daily meteorological variables night affect soil temperature was 30 to 50 cm. In the models, solar radiation was not included as a independent variable ; however, in a seperated analysis on relationship between the difference(${\Delta}Tmxs$) of the maximum soil temperature and the maximum air temperature and solar radiation(Rs ; $J\;m^{-2}$) under a corn canopy showed linear relationship as $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.902+1.924{\times}10^{-3}$$ Rs for leaf area index lower than 2 $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.274+8.881{\times}10^{-4}$$ Rs for leaf area index higher than 2.

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Analysis of Microbiological Hazards to Determine S. aureus Contamination Levels at School Foodservice Operations in Gyeonggi Province (경기지역 학교급식에서의 S. aureus 오염도 파악을 위한 미생물 위해분석)

  • Kim, Eun-Jung;Choi, Jung-Hwa;Kwak, Tong-Kyung
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.365-378
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    • 2009
  • This study performed microbiological hazards analysis in raw food materials, cooking processes, kitchen staff, utensils, and the environment in order to obtain contamination levels of S. aureus in school foodservice operations. S. aureus was not detected in cooked foods offered by the foodservice operations; however, it was found in raw food materials prior to cooking. In the case of vegetables, S. aureus was detected in washed mung bean sprouts, parboiled mung bean sprouts, and bellflower roots both before and after disinfection, at levels of 2.2, 1.0, 1.0, and 1.0 log CFU/g, respectively. For processed foods, S. aureus was detected in one sample of packaged bean curd as well as in mung bean jelly cake at the level of 1.5 log CFU/g. For meat products, S. aureus was detected in beef brisket and chicken at levels of 2.3 and 1.3 log CFU/g, respectively. To determine microbiological hazard data for the hands and gloves of cooking personnel, the staff members were divided into two groups: a group presenting Enterobacteriaceae or coliforms, and another group presenting neither Enterobacteriaceae nor coliforms. The results showed that S. aureus was detected on the hands of staff in each group at levels of 2.0 and 2.1 log CFU/hand, respectively, and at 1.8 and 0.0 log CFU/hand on the gloves of staff in each group, respectively. Among kitchen utensils, as an environmental factor in school foodservice operations, S. aureus was detected on meat knives, mixing bowls, and dish cloths at levels exceeding 1.0 log CFU/hand.

Parameterization of the Temperature-Dependent Development of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acari: Tetranychidae) and a Matrix Model for Population Projection (귤응애 온도발육 매개변수 추정 및 개체군 추정 행렬모형)

  • Yang, Jin-Young;Choi, Kyung-San;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2011
  • Temperature-related parameters of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acarina: Tetranychidae) development were estimated and a stage-structured matrix model was developed. The lower threshold temperatures were estimated as $8.4^{\circ}C$ for eggs, $9.9^{\circ}C$ for larvae, $9.2^{\circ}C$ for protonymphs, and $10.9^{\circ}C$ for deutonymphs. Thermal constants were 113.6, 29.1, 29.8, and 33.4 degree days for eggs, larvae, protonymphs, and deutonymphs, respectively. Non-linear development models were established for each stage of P. citri. In addition, temperature-dependent total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate models were developed for the construction of an oviposition model. P. citri age was categorized into five stages to construct a matrix model: eggs, larvae, protonymphs, deutonymphs and adults. For the elements in the projection matrix, transition probabilities from an age class to the next age class or the probabilities of remaining in an age class were obtained from development rate function of each stage (age classes). Also, the fecundity coefficients of adult population were expressed as the products of adult longevity completion rate (1/longevity) by temperature-dependent total fecundity. To evaluate the predictability of the matrix model, model outputs were compared with actual field data in a cool early season and hot mid to late season in 2004. The model outputs closely matched the actual field patterns within 30 d after the model was run in both the early and mid to late seasons. Therefore, the developed matrix model can be used to estimate the population density of P. citri for a period of 30 d in citrus orchards.

Clinical Course of Usual Interstitial Pneumonia (통상성 간질성 폐섬유증의 임상경과)

  • Park, Joo-Hun;Kitaichi, M.;Yum, Ho-Kee;Shim, Tae-Sun;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Youn-Suck;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Won-Dong;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.601-613
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    • 2000
  • Background : Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a fatal progressive fibrous disease of the lung of unknown etiology. Recently it has been classified into several distinct entities on the basis of pathologic and clinical characteristics, ie : usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP), desquamative interstitial pneumonia (DIP), acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP), bronchiolitis obliterans with organizing pneumonia (BOOP), and nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). IPF is now applied only for UIP, which has the worst prognosis. The previous reports of 3-5 year median survival appears to be overoptimistic because other types with better prognosis like NSIP or BOOP might have been included. Therefore, this study was performed to determine the clinical course and the prognostic factors of UIP as diagnosed by surgical lung biopsy. Methods : The subjects were 72 UIP patients (age $58.2{\pm}11.6$ years, M : F=45 : 27, median follow up period : 18.1 months (0.7-103.6) diagnosed by surgical lung biopsy at the Asan Medical Center (68 patients) and the Paik Hospital in Seoul (4 patients). Clinical scores (level of dyspnea : 1-20 points), radiologic score (honeycombing : HC score 0-5 points, ground glass : GG score 0-5 points), and physiologic scores (FVC : 1-12 points, $FEV_1$ : 0-3 points, TLC : 0-10 points, $D_{LCO)$ : 0-5 points, $AaDO_2$ : 0-10 points) were summed into a total CRP score. Results : 1) The one year survival rate was 78.3%, while the rate for three year survival was 58.1%, and the median survival period was 42.5months. 2) Short term (1 year) prognosis : The patients who died within one year of diagnosis (14 patients) had the higher initial total CRP score ($28.6{\pm}8.3$ vs. $16.6{\pm}9.7$) than those who lived longer than one year (46 patients). The difference in the total CRP score was attributed to the symptom score ($8.4{\pm}2.1$ vs. $5.7{\pm}3.9$) and the physiologic score ($15.7{\pm}7.1$ vs. $6.7{\pm}5.7$) including FVC, $D_{LCO)$ and $AaDO_2$. 3) Long-term (3year) prognosis : The total CRP score ($12.2{\pm}6.7$ vs. $28.7{\pm}7.9$ : including symptom score, FVC, $D_{LCO)$ and $AaDO_2$) at the time of diagnosis were also different for the long-term survivors and those who lived less than 3 years. 4) Cox regression analysis showed $D_{LCO)$ (${\geq}$60%) (Hazard ratio : 4.56, 95% CI : 2.30-16.04) was the independent prognostic factors of UIP (P<0.05). Conclusion : These results suggest that $D_{LCO)$ at the time of diagnosis seem to be a prognostic markers of biopsy-proven UIP.

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$CO_2$ Removal Process Case Studies and Plant Performance Analysis for 300MW IGCC Power Plant (300MW 급 IGCC Power Plant $CO_2$ 제거공정의 Case Studies 및 Plant 성능 영향 분석)

  • Jeon, Jinhee;Yoo, Jeongseok;Paek, Minsu
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.71.2-71.2
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    • 2011
  • 300MW 급 태안 IGCC 가스화 플랜트 및 기존 발전소에 CCS 를 설치할 경우에 대해 기술 타당성 검증을 목적으로 CCS 모델링을 수행하였다. CCS Case Studies 는 플랜트 운전부하에 따른 $CO_2$ 제거율, $H_2S$ 제거율, 소모동력 범위 등 플랜트 성능을 예측할 수 있다. Case Studies 결과를 활용하여 설계된 CCS 설비 용량이 운전범위에 적합한지를 판단할 수 있고 과잉 설계되었을 경우 플랜트 건설비를 절감할 수 있다. IGCC 가스화 플랜트에서 생산되는 합성가스의 $CO_2$ 분압, 목표 $CO_2$ 제거율, 경제성을 기준으로 적합한 CCS 공정을 판단한 결과 Selexol 공정이 선정되었다. Selexol 공정은 고압, 고농도의 산성가스 제거에 적합하며 다른 물리적 용매인 Rectisol 공정에 비해 건설비용이 경제적이고 화학 흡수제인 아민과 비교하여 운전 온도 범위가 넓다. CO, $H_2O$$CO_2$, $H_2$ 로 전환하는 Water Gas Shift Reaction (WGSR) 공정은 Co/Mo 촉매 반응기로 구성되었고 Selexol 공정은 $H_2S$ Absorber, $H_2S$ Stripper, $CO_2$ Absorber, $CO_2$ Flash Drum 로 구성되었다. WGSR+Selexol 모델링은 Wet Scrubber 후단의 합성가스 (40.5 bar, $136{\sim}139^{\circ}C$) 를 대상으로 하였다. WGSR+Selexol 공정 운전 조건 변화 [Process Design Case(PDC), Equipment Design Case(EDC), Turndown Design Case(TDC)] 에 따른 플랜트 모델링 결과를 비교분석 하였다. 주요 분석 내용은 WGSR 설비에서의 CO 의 $CO_2$ 전환 효율, Selexol 설비에서 $CO_2$ 제거 효율, $H_2S$ 제거 효율이다. 모델링 결과 WGSR 설비에서의 CO 의 $CO_2$ 로의 전환율 99.1% 이상, Selexol 설비에서 $CO_2$ 제거율은 91.6% 이상, $H_2S$ 제거율 100%이었다. CCS 설비 설치에 따른 플랜트 성능 영향을 분석하기 위해서 CCS 설비의 Chiller, Compressor, Pump 소비동력을 계산하였다. 모델링 결과 Chiller 는 2.6~8.5 MWth, Compressor 는 3.0~9.6 MWe, Pump 는 1.4~3.0 MWe 범위 이었다. 플랜트 로드가 50%인 TDC 소모동력은 플랜트 로드가 100%인 PDC 소모동력의 절반 수준이었다. 합성가스를 WGS+Selexol 공정을 통해 수소가스로 전환시키면 가스터빈 연료가스의 Lower Heating Value (LHV) 값이 평균 11.5% 감소하였다.

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Role of enzyme immunoassay for the Detection of Helicobacter pylori Stool Antigen in Confirming Eradication After Quadruple Therapy in Children (소아에서 4제요법 후 enzyme immunoassay에 의한 Helicobacter pylori 대변 항원 검출법의 유용성에 대한 연구)

  • Yang, Hye Ran;Seo, Jeong Kee
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.153-162
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: The Helicobacter pylori stool antigen (HpSA) enzyme immunoassay is a non-invasive test for the diagnosis and monitoring of H. pylori infection. But, there are few validation studies on the HpSA test after eradication in children. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of HpSA enzyme immunoassay for the detection of H. pylori to confirm eradication in children. Methods: From January 2001 to October 2003, 164 tests were performed in 146 children aged 1 to 17.5 years (mean $9.3{\pm}4.3$ years). H. pylori infection was confirmed by endoscopy-based tests (rapid urease test, histology, and culture). All H. pylori infected children were treated with quadruple regimens (Omeprazole, amoxicillin, metronidazole and bismuth subcitrate for 7 days). Stool specimens were collected from all patients for the HpSA enzyme immunoassay (Primier platinum HpSA). The results of HpSA tests were interpreted as positive for $OD{\geq}0.160$, unresolved for $$0.140{\leq_-}OD$$<0.160, and negative for OD<0.140 at 450 nm on spectrophotometer. Results: 1) One hundred thirty-one HpSA tests were performed before treatment. The result of HpSA enzyme immunoassay showed three false positive cases and one false negative case. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of HpSA enzyme immunoassay before treatment were 96.4%, 97.1%, 90%, and 99%, respectively. 2) Thirty-three HpSA enzyme immunoassay were performed at least 4 weeks after eradication therapy. The results of HpSA enzyme immunoassay showed two false positive cases and one false negative case. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value after treatment were 88.9%, 91.7%, 80%, and 95.7%, respectively. Conclusion: Diagnostic accuracy of the HpSA enzyme immunoassay after eradication therapy was as high as that of the HpSA test before eradication therapy. The HpSA enzyme immunoassay was found to be a useful non-invasive method to confirm H. pylori eradication in children.

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Application of Statistical Analysis to Analyze the Spatial Distribution of Earthquake-induced Strain Data (지진유발 변형률 데이터의 분포 특성 분석을 위한 응용통계기법의 적용)

  • Kim, Bo-Ram;Chae, Byung-Gon;Kim, Yongje;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.353-361
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    • 2013
  • To analyze the distribution of earthquake-induced strain data in rock masses, statistical analysis was performed on four-directional strain data obtained from a ground movement monitoring system installed in Korea. Strain data related to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and two aftershocks of >M7.0 in 2011 were used in x-MR control chart analysis, a type of univariate statistical analysis that can detect an abnormal distribution. The analysis revealed different dispersion times for each measurement orientation. In a more comprehensive analysis, the strain data were re-evaluated using multivariate statistical analysis (MSA) considering correlations among the various data from the different measurement orientations. $T_2$ and Q-statistics, based on principal component analysis, were used to analyze the time-series strain data in real-time. The procedures were performed with 99.9%, 99.0%, and 95.0% control limits. It is possible to use the MSA data to successfully detect an abnormal distribution caused by earthquakes because the dispersion time using the 99.9% control limit is concurrent with or earlier than that from the x-MR analysis. In addition, the dispersion using the 99.0% and 95.0% control limits detected an abnormal distribution in advance. This finding indicates the potential use of MSA for recognizing abnormal distributions of strain data.

Sensitivity Analysis of the MUSIC Model Parameters (MUSIC모형의 매개변수에 관한 민감도 분석)

  • Im, Jang-Hyuk;Yeoun, Ji-Woong;Park, Sung-Sik;Song, Jai-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.236-240
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    • 2007
  • 최근 집중호우에 의한 피해가 증가함에 따라 도시화에 따른 불투수 면적이 유출량 증가의 주요한 원인으로 지목되고 있으며 도시의 인구집중으로 인한 지하수의 난개발로 지하수 오염 및 고갈이 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 이에 도시의 지속적이고 건전한 물 관리를 위하여 우수유출저감시설이 고려되고 있으며, 정량적인 저감효과의 분석방법이 요구되고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 호주에서 물관리 및 우수유출저감을 고려한 도시유역계획을 위해 이용되고 있는 모형에 대한 민감도 분석을 실시하였으며, 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 MUSIC 향후 국내 우수유출저감시설에 관한 수문 해석시 MUSIC의 적용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다. MUSIC의 매개변수 중 불투수율과 토양특성이 매우 중요한 매개변수로 고려되고 있으므로, 본 연구에서는 투수지역의 최대저류깊이, Soil storage(mm), 강우초기 최대저류깊이의 포화정도 Initial storage(%), 지하수위에 도달할 수 있는 Field capacity(mm), 최대 침투율에 영향을 미치는 건조토양상태의 침투율을 정의하는 계수 a와 함수비 증가에 따른 최대 침투율 감소를 정의하는 지수 b 등의 매개변수에 대해 초기값을 중심으로 일정비율로 각 매개변수를 10단계로 구분하여 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 주요 매개변수의 민감도 분석 결과로부터 MUSIC의 모의를 위해서는 불투수율의 민감도 변화 범위가 가장 넓고 첨두유출량과 총유출량 변화가 함께 일어나므로, 이를 가장 우선적으로 조정하고 이와 함께 토양특성을 반영하는 Soil storage와 Initial storage를 고려한다면 MUSIC을 이용하여 개발에 의한 유출변화와 다양한 우수침투시설 설치에 따른 저감효과를 합리적으로 예측할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 물 관리를 요구하게 되었다. 우리나라는 현실적으로 매년 홍수 피해가 발생하고 있지만, 다른 한편 인구밀도가 높고 1인당 가용 수자원이 상대적으로 적기 때문에 국지적 물 부족 문제를 경험하고 있다. 최근 국제적으로도 농업용수의 물 낭비 최소화와 절약 노력 및 타 분야 물 수요 증대에 대한 대응 능력 제고가 매우 중요한 과제로 부각되고 있다. 2006년 3월 멕시코에서 개최된 제4차 세계 물 포럼에서 국제 강 네트워크는 "세계 물 위기의 주범은 농경지", "농민들은 모든 물 위기 논의에서 핵심"이라고 주장하고, 전 프랑스 총리 미셀 로카르는 "...관개시설에 큰 문제점이 있고 덜 조방적 농업을 하도록 농민들을 설득해야 한다. 이는 전체 농경법을 바꾸는 문제..."(segye.com, 2006. 3. 19)라고 주장하는 등 세계 물 문제 해결을 위해서는 농업용수의 효율적 이용 관리가 중요함을 강조하였다. 본 연구는 이러한 국내외 여건 및 정책 환경 변화에 적극적으로 대처하고 물 분쟁에 따른 갈등해소 전략 수립과 효율적인 물 배분 및 이용을 위한 기초연구로서 농업용수 수리권과 관련된 법 및 제도를 분석하였다.. 삼요소의 시용 시험결과 그 적량은 10a당 질소 10kg, 인산 5kg, 및 가리 6kg 정도였으며 질소는 8kg 이상의 경우에는 분시할수록 비효가 높았으며 특히 벼의 후기 중점시비에 의하여 1수영화수와 결실율의 증대가 크게 이루어졌다. 3. 파종기와 파종량에 관한 시험결과는 공시품종선단의 파종적기는 4월 25일부터 5월 10일경까지 인데 이 기간중 일찍 파종하는 경우에 파종적량은 10a당 약 8${\ell}$이고 늦은 경우에는 12${\ell}$ 정도였다. 여기서 늦게 파종한 경우 감수의 가장

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Prediction and Evaluation of Landslide Hazard Based on Regional Forest Environment (지역산림환경을 기반으로 한 산사태 발생 위험성의 예측 및 평가)

  • Ma, Ho-Seop;Kang, Won-Seok;Lee, Sung-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.103 no.2
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2014
  • This study was carried out to propose the criteria for the prediction of landslide occurrence through analysis the influence of each factor by using the quantification theory. The results obtained from this study are summarized as follows. From a stepwise regression analysis between the landslide area($m^2$) and environmental factors, the factors strongly affecting the landslide sediment($m^2$) were the Parents rock (igneous), cross slope(complex), coniferous forests (forest type) and slope gradient ($21{\sim}30^{\circ}$). According to the range, it was shown in order of Cross slope (0.2922), Parents rock (0.2691), Forest type (0.2631) and Slope gradient (0.2312). The range of prediction score of landslide occurrence has been distributed between score 0 and score 1.0556, the median value was score 0.5278. The prediction for class I was over 0.7818, for class II was 0.5279 to 0.7917, for class III 0.2694 to 0.5278 and for class IV was below 0.2693. The prediction on landslide occurrence appeared relatively high accuracy rate as 72% for class I and II. Therefore, this score table for landslide will be very useful for judgement of dangerous slope.

Optimal design of impeller in fan motor unit of cordless vacuum cleaner for improving flow performance and reducing aerodynamic noise (무선진공청소기 팬 모터 단품의 유량성능 향상과 공력소음 저감을 위한 임펠라 최적설계)

  • Kim, KunWoo;Ryu, Seo-Yoon;Cheong, Cheolung;Seo, Seongjin;Jang, Cheolmin
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.379-389
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the flow and noise performances of high-speed fan motor unit for cordless vacuum cleaner is improved by optimizing the impeller which drives the suction air through flow passage of the cordless vacuum cleaner. Firstly, the unsteady incompressible Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations are solved to investigate the flow through the fan motor unit using the computational fluid dynamics techniques. Based on flow field results, the Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) integral equation is used to predict flow noise radiated from the impeller. Predicted results are compared to the measured ones, which confirms the validity of the numerical method used. It is found that the strong vortex is formed around the mid-chord region of the main blades where the blade curvature change rapidly. Given that vortex acts as a loss for flow and a noise source for noise, impeller blade is redesigned to suppress the identified vortex. The response surface method using two factors is employed to determine the optimum inlet and outlet sweep angles for maximum flow rate and minimum noise. Further analysis of finally selected design confirms the improved flow and noise performance.