• Title/Summary/Keyword: 검출확률

Search Result 483, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Microbial Risk Assessment of High Risk Vibrio Foodborne Illness Through Raw Oyster Consumption (생굴 섭취로 인한 고병원성 Vibrio균 식중독 위해평가)

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Oh, Hyemin;Shin, Il-Shik;Kim, Young-Mog;Park, Kwon-Sam;Yoon, Yohan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-44
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study investigated the probability of foodborne illness caused by raw oyster consumption contaminated with high risk Vibrio species such as V. vulnificus and V. cholerae. Eighty-eight raw oyster samples were collected from the south coast, west coast and Seoul areas, and examined for the prevalence of high risk Vibrio species. The growth patterns of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in raw oysters were evaluated, and consumption frequency and amounts for raw oyster were investigated from a Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. With the collected data, a risk assessment simulation was conducted to estimate the probability of foodborne illness caused by intake of raw oysters, using @RISK. Of 88 raw oysters, there were no V. vulnificus- or V. cholerae-positive samples. Thus, initial contamination levels of Vibrio species in raw oysters were estimated by the statistical methods developed by Vose and Sanaa, and the estimated value for the both Vibrio spp. was -3.6 Log CFU/g. In raw oyster, cell counts of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae remained unchanged. The incidence of raw oyster consumers was 0.35%, and the appropriate probabilistic distribution for the consumption amounts was the exponential distribution. A risk assessment simulation model was developed with the collected data, and the probability of the foodborne illness caused by the consumption of raw oyster was 9.08×10-15 for V. vulnificus and 8.16×10-13 for V. cholerae. Consumption frequency was the first factor, influencing the probability of foodborne illness.

NEAR-INFRARED VARIABILITY OF OPTICALLY BRIGHT TYPE 1 AGN (가시광에서 밝은 1형 활동은하핵의 근적외선 변광)

  • JEON, WOOYEOL;SHIM, HYUNJIN;KIM, MINJIN
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
    • /
    • v.36 no.3
    • /
    • pp.47-63
    • /
    • 2021
  • Variability is one of the major characteristics of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), and it is used for understanding the energy generation mechanism in the center of AGN and/or related physical phenomena. It it known that there exists a time lag between AGN light curves simultaneously observed at different wavelengths, which can be used as a tool to estimate the size of the area that produce the radiation. In this paper, We present long term near-infrared variability of optically bright type 1 AGN using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer data. From the Milliquas catalogue v6.4, 73 type 1 QSOs/AGN and 140 quasar candidates are selected that are brighter than 18 mag in optical and located within 5 degree around the ecliptic poles. Light curves in the W1 band (3.4 ㎛) and W2 band (4.6 ㎛) during the period of 2010-2019 were constructed for these objects by extracting multi-epoch photometry data from WISE and NEOWISE all sky survey database. Variability was analyzed based on the excess variance and the probability Pvar. Applying both criteria, the numbers of variable objects are 19 (i.e., 26%) for confirmed AGN and 12 (i.e., 9%) for AGN candidates. The characteristic time scale of the variability (τ) and the variability amplitude (σ) were derived by fitting the DRW model to W1 and W2 light curves. No significant correlation is found between the W1/W2 magnitude and the derived variability parameters. Based on the subsample that are identified in the X-ray source catalog, there exists little correlation between the X-ray luminosity and the variability parameters. We also found four AGN with changing W1-W2 color.

A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
    • /
    • 2004.11a
    • /
    • pp.355-380
    • /
    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

  • PDF