• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.241-253
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• 2009

This study performs the investigation of a long-term variation of annual maximum surge heights(AMSH) and main characteristics of high surge events, and the statistical evaluation of the AMSH using sea level data at Yeosu and Tongyeong tidal stations over more than 30 years. It is found that the long-term uptrends based on the linear regression in the AMSH are 34.5 cm/34 yr at Yeosu and 33.6 cm/31 yr at Tongyeong, which are relatively much higher than those at Sokcho and Mukho in the Eastern Coast. 71% and 68% of the AMSH occur during typhoon's event in Yeosu and Tongyeong tidal stations, respectively, and the highest surge records are mostly produced by the typhoon. The generalized extreme value distribution taking into account of the time variable is applied to detect time trend in annual maximum surge heights. In addition, Gumbel distribution is checked to find which one is best fitted to the data using likelihood ratio test. The return level and its 90% confidence interval are obtained for the statistical prediction of the future trend. The prevention of the growing storm surge damage by the intensified typhoon requires the steady analysis and prediction of the surge events associated with the climate change.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.41-49
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• 2016

In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution models with rainfall data collected in major cities of Korea to reevaluate the return period of sewer flooding in those cities. As a result, the probable rainfall for GEV and Gumbel distribution in non-stationary state both increased with time(t), compared to the stationary probable rainfall. Considering the reliability of ${\xi}_1$, a variable reflecting the increase of storm events due to climate change, the reliability of the rainfall duration for Seoul, Daegu, and Gwangju in the GEV distribution was over 90%, indicating that the probability of rainfall increase was high. As for the Gumbel distribution, Wonju, Daegu, and Gwangju showed the higher reliability while Daejeon showed the lower reliability than the other cities. In addition, application of the maximum annual rainfall change rate (${\xi}_1{\cdot}t$) to the location parameter made possible the prediction of return period by time, therefore leading to the evaluation of design recurrence interval.