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A Study on the Application of Generalized Extreme Value Distribution to the Variation of Annual Maximum Surge Heights  

Kwon, Seok-Jae (Ocean Research Lab., National Oceanographic Research Institute)
Park, Jeong-Soo (Dept. of Statistics, Chonnam National University)
Lee, Eun-Il (Ocean Research Lab., National Oceanographic Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers / v.21, no.3, 2009 , pp. 241-253 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study performs the investigation of a long-term variation of annual maximum surge heights(AMSH) and main characteristics of high surge events, and the statistical evaluation of the AMSH using sea level data at Yeosu and Tongyeong tidal stations over more than 30 years. It is found that the long-term uptrends based on the linear regression in the AMSH are 34.5 cm/34 yr at Yeosu and 33.6 cm/31 yr at Tongyeong, which are relatively much higher than those at Sokcho and Mukho in the Eastern Coast. 71% and 68% of the AMSH occur during typhoon's event in Yeosu and Tongyeong tidal stations, respectively, and the highest surge records are mostly produced by the typhoon. The generalized extreme value distribution taking into account of the time variable is applied to detect time trend in annual maximum surge heights. In addition, Gumbel distribution is checked to find which one is best fitted to the data using likelihood ratio test. The return level and its 90% confidence interval are obtained for the statistical prediction of the future trend. The prevention of the growing storm surge damage by the intensified typhoon requires the steady analysis and prediction of the surge events associated with the climate change.
Keywords
global warming; tides; sea level; surge level; GEVD; Gumbel distribution;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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