• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.60-68
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• 2012

The past IMF foreign exchange crisis and subprime financial crisis had a big influence on variability of macroeconomics, even if the origin of its occurrence might be different. This not only had a significant infrequence on the overall industries, but also produced many insolvent companies by being closely linked with a management environment of an individual construction company leading the construction industry. Actually, the level of default risk of construction companies before and after fluctuation of macroeconomics gets to experience a rapid changing process, and a difference in reaction against shock exists according to each company. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to confirm the fluctuation process of the default risk of construction companies under the fluctuation of macroeconomics such as the IMF financial crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis. As an analysis result, it is judged that the subprime financial crisis gave bigger shock to construction companies than the foreign exchange crisis, and it is expected that this would have a relation with the construction market before shock of macroeconomics. In addition, it was analyzed that when comparing insolvent companies with normal companies, the recovery speed of normal companies is faster. It is judged that this was affected by a difference of internal business capacity between insolvent companies and normal companies.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.13-21
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• 2016

Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.3260-3269
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• 2014

The construction industry has strong ties with other industries, and so construction company insolvency also has a strong influence on other industries. Prediction models addressing the insolvency of construction company have been well studied. Although factors contributing to insolvency must precede those of predictions of insolvency, studies on these contributing factors are limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of changes in the housing market on construction company insolvency by using the Vector Error Correction Model. Construction companies were divided into two groups, and the expected default frequency(EDF), which indicates insolvency of each company was measured through the KMV model. The results verified that 10 largest construction companies were in a better financial condition compared to relatively smaller construction companies. As a result of conducting impulse response analysis, the EDF of large companies was found to be more sensitive to housing market change than that of small- and medium-sized construction companies.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.8
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• pp.147-156
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• 2016

This study analyzed the impact of changes in the construction business on construction company insolvency according to their size using the vector error correction model. First, this study applied EDF (Expected Default Frequency), which was calculated by KMV (Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek) model, as a variable to indicate the insolvency of construction companies. This study set 30 construction companies listed to KOSPI/KOSDAQ for estimating the EDF by size and construction companies were divided into two groups according to their size. To examine the construction business cycles, the amount of construction orders according to the type-residential, non-residential, and civil work- was used as a variable. The serial data was retrieved from TS2000 established by the Korea Listed Companies Association (KLCA), Statistics Korea. The analysis period was between the second quarter of 2001 and fourth quarter of 2015. As a result of calculating the EDF of construction companies by size, as it is generally known, the large-sized construction companies showed lower levels of insolvency than relatively smaller-sized construction companies. On the other hand, impulse response analysis based on VECM confirmed that the level of insolvency of large-scaled companies is more sensitive to business fluctuations than relatively smaller-sized construction companies, particularly changes in the residential construction market. Hence it is a major factor affecting the changes in insolvency of large-sized construction companies.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.3-11
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• 2013

The changes in construction business have impact on overall operation of construction companies. Poor business of construction companies following a s low industrial cycle could have broader implications and influences on the industry. Since a construction project involves various stakeholders including public organizations, financial institutions and households, a downturn in construction industry might lead to significant economic loss. In this regard, it is meaningful to examine the relationship between changes in construction business cycles and insolvency of construction companies. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between construction business cycles and how much they affect operation of construction companies. To this end, KMV model was used to estimate probability of bankruptcy, which represents business condition of a construction company. To examine construction business cycles, investment amount for different construction types-residential, non-residential, and construction work-was used as a variable. Based on the investment amount, VECM was applied and the analysis results suggested that construction companies should put priority on diversifying project portfolio. In addition, it was shown that once a construction company becomes unstable in business operation, it is hard to recover even when the market condition turns for the better. This suggests that, to improve business operation of a construction company, internal capacity-building is as important as the market condition and other external circumstances.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.5 no.3 s.19
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• pp.114-119
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• 2004

A road is an infrastructure that helps boost up growth of local economy, connections among local communities and living conditions. For South Korea the increase in infrastructures like roads now concentrates on specific regions, which causes regional imbalance. also, some areas are faced with the overall weakness of local economy such as decrease in local tax revenues, slowdown in industrial and economic growth of regions, and the low independence of local finances because lack of roads, a basis of local economic growth, make big and smaller business reluctant to invest in localities. In addition, even though the power-centralized age turns to a decentralized age, the preference of development policies by the existing economic size rather than those of nationwide balanced development gets the economic gap of localities deeply-rooted; moreover, disparity of local wealth has a tendency to even differentiate the overall quality of living. The paper intends to analyze relations between road development and local economy focused on road construction, one of requisites to balance national development and accelerate local economy.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.17
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• pp.27-52
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• 2004

The miraculous growth of Korean economy and its business corporations during 1960' s and 1970's are mainly due to the government leadership and its market intervention. We can find the reasons why the government initiated economic growth plan was so successful in Korea in its efficient bureaucratic government system and fair discipline to the corporations based on its contribution to the economy. During 1960's, the primary factors for the growth of business entities and the formation of business groups were the financial special favor, the preferential treatment in the new industry entrance and the merge & acquisition, lavish export incentives from the government, and the export explosion to Vietnam. During 1970's, the substantial deduction of corporations' private debt, enormous support in heavy industry investment, special benefits to general trading companies by the government, and the construction export to the Middle-East were the main causes of the business growth and the business groups formation. Also, the economic rent for the big companies had still been effective since 1960's. However, the preferential benefit to the big companies made them to diversify into the unrelated business ares and to be in very vulnerable financial position. The governmental support brought about the monopoly as well.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.47-66
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• 2016

Once it has been built, a container terminal is impossible to move to another location. It is hard to rectify wrong decisions in a container terminal. This highlights the importance of decision making for a container terminal. The port management about a container terminal has developed from a cargo interface location between sea and land transport, to the standardization of information and procedures due to globalization among global shipping and terminal operators. This research focuses on the current states of market and management for global container terminal operators by investigating up-to-date data for them. The current market states for global container terminal operators are analyzed by using by Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. The analyses of current management states for global container terminal operators are divided into profitability analysis, activity analysis, and bankruptcy risk analysis. Finally, global container terminal operators are clustered into three groups by the current management states.