• Title/Summary/Keyword: 거시경제정책

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The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policies for R&D Investment (R&D 투자 촉진을 위한 재정지원정책의 효과분석)

  • Song, Jong-Guk;Kim, Hyuk-Joon
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-48
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    • 2009
  • Recently we have found some symptoms that R&D fiscal incentives might not work well what it has intended through the analysis of current statistics of firm's R&D data. Firstly, we found that the growth rate of R&D investment in private sector during the recent decade has been slowdown. The average of growth rate (real value) of R&D investment is 7.1% from 1998 to 2005, while it was 13.9% from 1980 to 1997. Secondly, the relative share of R&D investment of SME has been decreased to 21%('05) from 29%('01), even though the tax credit for SME has been more beneficial than large size firm, Thirdly, The R&D expenditure of large size firms (besides 3 leading firms) has not been increased since late of 1990s. We need to find some evidence whether fiscal incentives are effective in increasing firm's R&D investment. To analyse econometric model we use firm level unbalanced panel data for 4 years (from 2002 to 2005) derived from MOST database compiled from the annual survey, "Report on the Survey of Research and Development in Science and Technology". Also we use fixed effect model (Hausman test results accept fixed effect model with 1% of significant level) and estimate the model for all firms, large firms and SME respectively. We have following results from the analysis of econometric model. For large firm: i ) R&D investment responds elastically (1.20) to sales volume. ii) government R&D subsidy induces R&D investment (0.03) not so effectively. iii) Tax price elasticity is almost unity (-0.99). iv) For large firm tax incentive is more effective than R&D subsidy For SME: i ) Sales volume increase R&D investment of SME (0.043) not so effectively. ii ) government R&D subsidy is crowding out R&D investment of SME not seriously (-0.0079) iii) Tax price elasticity is very inelastic (-0.054) To compare with other studies, Koga(2003) has a similar result of tax price elasticity for Japanese firm (-1.0036), Hall((l992) has a unit tax price elasticity, Bloom et al. (2002) has $-0.354{\sim}-0.124$ in the short run. From the results of our analysis we recommend that government R&D subsidy has to focus on such an areas like basic research and public sector (defense, energy, health etc.) not overlapped private R&D sector. For SME government has to focus on establishing R&D infrastructure. To promote tax incentive policy, we need to strengthen the tax incentive scheme for large size firm's R&D investment. We recommend tax credit for large size film be extended to total volume of R&D investment.

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A Study on Relations of Macroeconomic Events and Investment Real Estate Holdings of Corporate -Including comparisons of KOSPI and KOSDAQ Listed Companies in Financial Crisis- (거시경제적사건과 기업의 투자부동산 보유간의 관련성 분석 -금융위기에 코스피기업과 코스닥기업의 비교를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Chan-ho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze how the relative proportion of retention between real estate for business and investment real estate among the real estate held by corporations has been changed after and before the Financial Crisis as well as whether there has been any difference between KOSPI and KOSDAQ listed companies in terms of their share of the real estate. The increasing pattern of real estate owned by KOSDAQ were similar to the KOSPI companies except for investment properties during the Financial Crisis. The proportion of real estate owned by KOSPI had been lower than that of KOSDAQ companies in both investment and business real estate before the Financial Crisis. However, during the period of the Financial Crisis, the proportion of real estate for business held by KOSPI firms was higher than that of KOSDAQ firms. Furthermore, the portion of investment of real estate owned by KOSPI has remained higher than that of KOSDAQ after the Financial Crisis period and the recent period. Based on the results of this analysis, how the relevance of the change of portion between real estate for business and investment real estate affects management performance will be figured out in the future studies.

A Study on Improving Estimation of Recurrence Rate of Public Water -Jungnangcheon Watershed- (생활용수 회귀수량 산정방법의 개선연구 -중랑천 유역을 대상으로-)

  • Jung, Chung Gil;Ahn, So Ra;Joh, Hyung Kyung;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.509-509
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    • 2015
  • 물 수요관리측면에 대한 정책을 수립하기 위해서는 현재 또는 장래에 대한 용수수급의 정확한 이해를 필요로 한다. 이를 위해서는 용수 수요량 및 공급량뿐만 아니라 여러 산정요소를 필요로 하는데, 그 중 회귀수량은 물이 이용되고 다시 하천으로 회귀되어 이용될 가능성이 있는 수량으로 정의되며, 용수수급 및 용수절약 측면에서 회귀 수량은 중요한 요소라 할 수 있다. 회귀수량 조사는 유역조사 사업 이래, 10년간 생?공용수를 중심으로 미시적, 거시적으로 조사를 시행하였으나, 측정 자료의 신뢰도, 조사방법 및 지점선정 등의 문제로 인하여 조사 성과의 활용성이 매우 낮은 실정이다. 수자원장기종합계획등에서는 수자원관련 계획 수립시 생?공용수의 회귀율을 65 %로 적용하고 있으나, 이는 1970년대 말의 사회적 여건 및 경제적 상황이 반연된 결과로 현재 상황에 적용되기 곤란하다. 따라서, 현재 실정에 맞는 회귀율 산정은 반드시 필요하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 기존 생활용수 회귀수량 산정 연구 한계를 보완하고 유역조사 시행을 위한 개선된 회귀수량을 산정하고자 한다. 본 연구는 서울시 중랑물재생센터 처리구역을 기반으로 중랑천유역을 시험유역으로 선정하였다. 기존 회귀수량 산정방법을 개선하기 위해 시험유역 회귀수량 산정을 위한 가용 자료 분석 및 용수흐름 네트워크 공간분석을 추가로 진행하였다. 가용자료로 시험 유역내 상수공급자료(정수장 공급량, 상수계통도, 유수 및 누수율), 하수처리자료(하수처리구역도, 하수처리계통도, 유입량 및 방류량) 및 기상자료(기상청 지점 및 AWS 강우자료)를 구축하였고 각각의 상수계통도 및 하수처리계통도로부터 용수 흐름 네트워크망을 구축하였다. 상수공급자료로부터 상수계통도 공급지역을 구분하여 월별 유수율에 따른 월별 실 공급량을 산정하였다. 하수처리자료로부터 시험유역에서의 월별하수처리 유입량 및 방류량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 회귀율(하수처리 방류량/실 공급량)을 산정한 결과 연평균 회귀율은 각각 93.97 %(2011년), 95.02%(2012년)로 과잉 추정 되었으며 7 ~ 9월의 회귀율은 110 ~ 120 %로 유입량을 초과하였다. 이는, 하수처리로 유입되는 유입량의 하수관거는 합류식으로 구축되어 7 ~ 9월에 많은 양의 강우량이 우수관을 통해 하수처리장으로 이송되어 생활용수 이외에 자연적인 공급량으로 인한 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서, 월별 회귀율 산정을 위해서는 불투수층에서의 면적강우량(mm)을 유입량(m3/s)으로 환산된 값을 고려하여 회귀율을 재산정하였다. 그 결과 연평균 회귀율은 각각 78.27 %(2011년), 77.58 %(2012년)로 나타났다.각각의 월별 회귀율도 매우 유사하게 나타났으며 과거 관용적으로 사용된 65 % 회귀율보다 약 12 ~ 13%로 증가하였으며 이는, 하수처리시설 구축 및 처리효율의 증가와 상수처리시설의 관로시설의 개량으로 인한 유수율 및 누수율 감소로 회귀율이 증가한 것으로 판단된다.

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Optimal Asset Allocation for National Pension Considering Cohort-Specific Internal Rates of Return (코호트별 내부수익률을 고려한 국민연금 적정 자산배분)

  • Dong-Hwa Lee;Daehwan Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2023
  • To improve the financial stability of the National Pension, an appropriate target rate of return should be established based on pension liabilities, and asset allocation policies should be formulated accordingly. The purpose of this study is to calculate the target rate of return considering the contributions of subscribers and the pension benefits, and based on this, derive an asset allocation. To do this, we utilized the internal rate of return methodology to calculate the target rate of return for each cohort. And then, we employed a Monte Carlo simulation-based re-sampling mean-variance model to derive asset allocation for each cohort that satisfy the target rate of return while minimizing risks. Our result shows that the target rate of return for each cohort ranged from 6.4% to 6.85%, and it decreased as the generations advanced due to a decrease in the income replacement rate of the National Pension. Consequently, the allocation of risky assets, such as stocks, was relatively reduced in the portfolios of future generations. This study holds significance in that it departs from the macroeconomic-based asset allocation methodology and proposes investments from an asset-liability management perspective, which considers the characteristics of subscribers' liabilities.

A Study on Ecological Variables that Affect Runaway Youths at Risk in Preparation for a Independent Life - Centering on Youths at Shelters (가출위기청소년의 자립생활 준비에 영향을 미치는 생태 체계적 변인연구 - 쉼터 청소년을 중심으로 -)

  • Oh, Soo-Saing;Byun, Sang-Hae
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.195-205
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    • 2012
  • This study examines runaway youths at risk in a youths' shelter who are preparing for an independent life and both the facilitating and adverse factors to personal characteristics and independence of runaway youths at risk with the aim to grasp their recognition of independence and level of desire for it and find out necessary factors for a successful independence in multidimensional perspectives including the economic independence, educational independence, psychological independence, and social independence for their sound growth. This will provide the basis for desirable interventions for youths runaway youths at risk to prepare for an independent life. The findings of this study on the factors that affect the preparation for an independent life are as follows: First, as a result of analyzing the effect of micro-systematic factors on the preparation for an independent life, it turned out that problem-solving abilities and self-efficacy had influence on the preparation for a career Second, as a result of analyzing the effect of mesoscopic-systematic variables on the preparation for an independent life, it turned out that the preparation for a career were affected by whether to participate in independence preparation programs and institutional supports, and that career maturity of runaway youths at risk were affected only by the relationship with teachers and participation in independence preparation programs. Third, as a result of analyzing the effect of macro systematic variables on the preparation for an independent life, it turned out that the preparation for a career were affected by participation of the local community and service network, and that participation of the local community was an predictor variable that would affect a career maturity of runaway youths at risk. Fourth, as a result of analyzing ecological systematic variables that might affect the preparation for a career, it turned out that intervening variables and macro systematic variables had the most powerful influence on the preparation for a career among runaway youths at risk. It is necessary, therefore, to provide education programs organized by policies in order to develop problem-solving abilities and vocational capabilities so that runaway youths at risk, and to train and appoint more professional teachers at shelters. Programs for independence preparation need to be developed actively and practically in consideration of the characteristics of shelters, and the network with the local community for support also need to be established in utilization of the human resources and service programs of the community. With the understanding of leaving home of runaway youths at risk as the previous stage of an independence, there should be a housing support for their stable settlement in the perspective of housing welfare until become adults. In addition, there should be education specialized programs for occupation and careers to train runaway youths at risk as professionals including such areas as health, mentality, learning, and voluntary work for their sound growth.

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The Effect of Interest Rate Variability on Housing Prices (이자율 변동이 주택가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Myung-hoon
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2022
  • The real estate market is an important part of a country's economy and plays a major role in economic growth through the growth of many related industries. Changes in interest rates affect asset prices and have a significant impact on housing prices. This study analyzed housing prices by dividing them into nationwide, local, and Seoul housing prices in order to analyze whether the effect of changes in interest rates on housing prices shows regional differences. The analysis was conducted from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2021, and was analyzed using the DOLS model. The main analysis results are as follows. First, interest rates were found to have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and a drop in interest rates significantly increased national housing prices and an increase in interest rates significantly lowered national housing prices. The consumer price index and loan growth rate also had a positive effect on housing prices nationwide, but statistical significance was not high. Second, interest rates had a negative effect on local housing prices, unlike national housing prices, but were not statistically significant. On the other hand, it was found that the consumer price index and loan growth rate had a larger and significant positive effect on local housing prices compared to national housing prices. Finally, it was found that the interest rate had the only significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. And this effect was greater and more significant than the effect on national and local housing prices. In the end, it was found that the effect of interest rates on Korean housing prices differs locally. Interest rates have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and local housing prices, but they are not statistically significant. In addition, the interest rate was found to have the largest and most significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. In addition, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of macroeconomic variables on housing prices. This means that there are differences between regions with different factors influencing local and Seoul housing prices, and this point should be considered when drafting and implementing real estate policies.

The Impact of BIS Regulation on Bank Behavior in Asset Management (신 BIS 자기자본규제가 은행자산운용행태에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Hyun-Tak;Choi, Seok-Gyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.171-198
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    • 2009
  • The primary purpose of this study is to examine the impact of new BIS regulation, which is the preparations to incorporate not only credit risk but also market and operation risk, on the bank behaviors. As methodology, SUR(seemingly unrelated regression) and pool unit test are used in the empirical analysis of banks survived in Korea. It is employed that quarterly data of BIS capital ratio, ratio of standard and below loans to total loans, ratio of liquid assets to liquid liabilities, allowances for credit losses, real GDP, yields of corporate bonds(3years, AA) covering the period of 2000Q1~2009Q1. As a result, it could be indicated that effectiveness and promoting improvements of BIS capital regulation policy as follows; First, it is explicitly seen that weight of lending had decreased and specific gravity of international investment had increased until before BIS regulation is built up a step for revised agreement in late 2001. Second, after more strengthening of BIS standard in late 2002, banks had a tendency to decrease the adjustment of assets weighted risk through issuing of national loan that is comparatively low profitability. Also, it is implicitly sought that BIS regulation is a bit of a factor to bring about credit crunch and then has become a bit of a factor of economic stagnation. Third, as the BIS regulation became hard, it let have a effort to raise the soundness of a credit loan because of selecting good debtor based on its credit ratings. Fourth, it should be arranged that the market disciplines, the effective superintendence system and the sound environment to be able to raise enormous bank capital easily, against the credit stringency and reinforce the soundness of banks etc. in Korea capital market.

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The Achievements and limitations of the U. S. Welfare Reform (미국 복지개혁의 성과와 한계)

  • Kim, Hwan-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.53
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    • pp.129-153
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    • 2003
  • This study examines the socio-economic impacts of recent welfare reform in the United States. Based on the neo-conservative critique to the traditional public assistance system for low-income families, the 1996 welfare reform has given greater emphases on reducing welfare dependency and increasing work effort and self-sufficiency among welfare recipients. In particular, the welfare reform legislation instituted 60-month lifetime limits on cash assistance, expanded mandatory work requirements, and placed financial penalties for noncompliance. With the well-timed economic boom in the second half of the 1990s, the welfare reform seems to achieve considerable progress; welfare caseload has declined sharply to reach less than 50% of its 1994 peak, single mothers' labor force participation has increased substantially, and child poverty has decreased. In spite of these good signals, the welfare reform also has several potential problems. Many welfare leavers participate in the labor market, but not all (or most) of them. The economic well being of working welfare leavers did not increased significantly, because earnings increase was canceled out by parallel decrease in welfare benefits. Furthermore, most of working welfare leavers are employed in jobs with poor employment stability and low wages, making them highly vulnerable to frequent layoff, long-time joblessness, persistent poverty, and welfare recidivism. Another serious problem of the welfare reform is that a substantial number of welfare recipients are faced with extreme difficulties in finding jobs, because they have severe barriers to employment. The new welfare system with 5-year time limit can severely threaten the livelihoods of these people. The welfare reform presupposes that welfare recipients can achieve self-reliance by increasing their labor market activities. However, empirical evidences suggest that many people are unable to respond to the new, work-oriented welfare strategy. It may be a very difficult task to achieve both objectives of the welfare reform((1) providing adequate income security for low-income families and (2) promoting self-sufficiency) at the same time, because sometimes they are conflicting each other. With this in mind, a possible solution can be to distinguish welfare recipients into "(Very)-Hard-to-Employ" group and "(Relatively)-Ready-to-Work" group, based on elaborate examinations of a wide range of personal conditions. For the former group, the primary objective of welfare policies should be the first one(providing income security). For the "Ready-to-Work" group, follow-up services to promote job retention and advancement, as well as skill-training and job-search services, are very important. The U. S. experiences of the welfare reform provide some useful implications for newly developing Korean public assistance policies for the able-bodied low-income population.

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A study on the case of education to train an archivist - Focus on archival training courses and the tradition of archival science in Italiy - (기록관리전문가의 양성교육에 관한 사례연구 -이탈리아의 기록관리학 전통과 교육과정을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jung-Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.201-230
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    • 2001
  • Conserving the recored cultural inheritance is actually the duty of all of us. Above all, the management and conservation of archives and documents is up to archivists who have technical knowledge about archival science. Archivists have to not only conserve archives and documents but also carry out classifying and appraising them in order to define them as current historic ones. The fundamental education about archival science is made up of history and law. Because Archive is the organisation which manage archives and documents produced by legal and administrative actions. Although there are still arguments about technical knowledge and degree archivists have to acquire, most of them prefer the studies related with history and emphasize legal studies to be the general boundary of archivits' ideology and trust. The training course about conservation of archives is conducted in about 9 National Archives of Torino, Milano, Venezia, Genova, Bologna, Parma, Roma, Napoli, Palermo. The training course in 19th was mostly based on the lectures of Phaleography, Diplomatics. There were not the education about archival science yet. Toward the end of 19th and 20th, people stressed the most basic subject in the training course of National Archive was not Phaleography and Diplomatics but archival science. The goal of archival science is to study the institution and organisation transferring archives and documents to Archive. And also it help archivists not wander about with ignorance of organisational and original procedures and divisions but know exactly theirs works. Like this, the studies on institution and organisation have got in the saddle as a branch of archival science since a few ten years. While archival science didn't evoke sympathy among people and experienced the tedious and difficult path in italy and other countries, Archive was managed by experts of other branches. As a result, there were a lot of faults in Archival Science. Specializing training course for Italian archivists came into being under the backdrop of Social Science Institute of Roma National University in 1925. The archival course of universities accomplished by the studies of history, law and economy. And such as Eugenio Casanova and Giorgio Cencetti were devoted archival science was abled to settle down in national archive. The training course for experts of 'archival science, 'Phaleography and Diplomatics' in National Archive of Bologna(Archivio di Stato di Bologna) is one of courses conducted in 17 National Archives in italy. This course is gratuitous and made up of 8 subjects(Archivistica, Paleografia, Diplomatica, Storia dell' Archivio, Notariato e documenti privati, istituzione medievale, istituzione moderna, istituzione contemporanea) students have to complete for two years. Students can receive the degree through passing twice written exam and once oral test. After department of Culture and education finally puts the marks of students, the chief Nationa Archive of Bologna confer the degree of 'archival science Phaleography and Diplomatics' on students passing the exams. This degree authenticates trainees' qualification which enables him to work at the archive in province, district and administrative capital city and archive of comunity and so on. Italian training course naturally leads archivists to keep in contact with valuable cultural inheritance through training in Archive. And it shows the intention to strengthen the affinity with each documents in the spot of archival management before training archivists. Also this is appraised as one of positive policies to conserve the local cultual inheritante in connection with the original qualitity of national archive with testify the history of each region. Traning course for archivist in Italy shows us the way how we have to prepare and proceed it. First, from producing documents to conserving than forever there has introduced 'original order that is to say a general rule to respect the first order given at the time producing documents'. Management of administrative documents is related consistently with one of historical documents. Second, the traning course for archivist is managing around 17 national archives. because italian national archive lay stress not or rducation of theory bus on train for archivest working in the first time of archival science. Third, diplomatics and phaleography for studies about historical document support archives. Forth, the studies on history id proceeding by cooperation between archivist and historian around archive. How our duties is non continuinf disputer who has to conserve and manage document and archives, but traing experts who having ability, vision and flexible thought, responsibility about archivals.