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에너지 소비효율 개선과 리바운드 효과: 수송부문을 중심으로

  • Kim, Dae-Uk;Kim, Jong-Ho
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.321-340
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    • 2012
  • Korean government recently announced that new passenger cars sold within South Korea in 2009 ran an average of 12.27 kilometers per liter of fuel, which is an 7% point increase of the fuel efficiency. The government interpreted these improvements in the fuel economy as energy savings of 60,000 toe and as a reduction of 160,000 ton $CO_2$ emissions. However, improvements in energy efficiency make energy services cheaper, which is known as rebound effect. If this rebound effect exists, and the size of the effect is not negligible, ignoring this could result in overestimating the energy savings achieved by the fuel efficiency increase. Using detailed data on household and vehicle characteristics, our results suggest that there exist a short-run rebound effect of 0.299(29.9%) for the Korean automobile industry. This is notably smaller than the estimates of West (2004), which finds an estimate of 87% using cross-section data for the US. Furthermore our results highlight the importance of rebound effect on energy savings and the $CO_2$ emissions reduction. Our estimates suggest that the report from Korean government overestimates the energy savings and related $CO_2$ emissions by 29.9% point.

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A Sub-grid Scale Estimation of Solar Irradiance in North Korea (북한지역 상세격자 디지털 일사량 분포도 제작)

  • Choi, Mi-Hee;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2011
  • Reliable information on the surface solar radiation is indispensable for rebuilding food production system in the famine plagued North Korea. However, transfer of the related modeling technology of South Korea is not possible simply because raw data such as solar radiation or sunshine duration are not available. The objective of this study is restoring solar radiation data at 27 synoptic stations in North Korea by using satellite remote sensing data. We derived relationships between MODIS radiation estimates and the observed solar radiation at 18 locations in South Korea. The relationships were used to adjust the MODIS based radiation data and to restore solar radiation data at those pixels corresponding to the 27 North Korean synoptic stations. Inverse distance weighted averaging of the restored solar radiation data resulted in gridded surfaces of monthly solar radiation for 4 decadal periods (1983-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010), respectively. For a direct application of these products, we produced solar irradiance estimates for each sub-grid cell with a 30 m spacing based on a sun-slope geometry. These products are expected to assist planning of the North Korean agriculture and, if combined with the already prepared South Korean data, can be used for climate change impact assessment across the whole Peninsula.

Estimating design floods for ungauged basins in the geum-river basin through regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments method (L-모멘트법을 이용한 지역홍수빈도분석을 통한 금강유역 미계측 유역의 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.8
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    • pp.645-656
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    • 2016
  • The study performed a regional flood frequency analysis and proposed a regression equation to estimate design floods corresponding to return periods for ungauged basins in Geum-river basin. Five preliminary tests were employed to investigate hydrological independence and homogeneity of streamflow data, i.e. the lag-one autocorrelation test, time homogeneity test, Grubbs-Beck outlier test, discordancy measure test ($D_i$), and regional homogeneity measure (H). The test results showed that streamflow data were time-independent, discordant and homogeneous within the basin. Using five probability distributions (generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter log-normal (LN-III), Pearson type 3 (P-III), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA)), comparative regional flood frequency analyses were carried out for the region. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram, average weighted distance (AWD) and goodness-of-fit statistics ($Z^{DIST}$), the GLO distribution was selected as the best fit model for Geum-river basin. Using the GLO, a regression equation was developed for estimating regional design floods, and validated by comparing the estimated and observed streamflows at the Ganggyeong station.

Estimation of the Shadow Price of Carbon Dioxide Emissions, the Potential Reduction, and Substitution Possibility for fuels in the Chinese Fossil-fueled Power Generation Sector (중국 화력발전산업의 CO2 암묵가격 및 잠재감축량, 연료에 대한 대체가능성 분석)

  • Jin, Yingmei;Lee, Myunghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.77-98
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    • 2013
  • China, the world's largest $CO_2$ producer, is likely to be obligated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the post-Kyoto protocol. This paper estimates a Shephard input distance function for the Chinese fossil-fueled power generation sector to measure the shadow price of $CO_2$ emissions, technical efficiency, and indirect Morishima elasticities of substitution between inputs. Empirical results show that, on average, it costs approximately 3.2 US dollars per year to reduce $CO_2$ emissions by one ton over the period 1981-2009. This finding indicates that Chinese power sector is expected to benefit from selling emission permits to other countries such as Korea and Japan, given that our estimate for China is lower than the ones previous literatures estimated for the power sector in these countries. The maximum attainable average $CO_2$ reduction potential amounts to approximately 25 million tons per year by improving technical efficiency. Capital is substitutable with both coal and oil and capital is relatively more readily substituted for these fuels.

Characteristics of Hydrodynamic Dispersion Using a Natural Gradient Tracer Test in a Fractured Rock at the Jwacheon-dong, Busan City (부산시 좌천동 단열암반층에서 자연구배 추적자시험을 이용한 수리분산특성 연구)

  • Chung Sang-Yong;Kang Dong-Hwan;Kim Byung-Woo
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.16 no.3 s.49
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    • pp.245-254
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    • 2006
  • Using a natural gradient tracer test, the characteristics of hydrodynamic dispersion according to each depth of a fractured rock were studied, and the effective porosity and longitudinal dispersivity of the fractured rock were estimated. The difference of vertical hydrodynamic dispersion was identified by concentration breakthrough curves linear regression analyses of bromide concentrations according to depths versus time, and hydraulic fracture characteristics at two intervals of the monitoring well. Higher concentration and faster arrival time at GL- 18 m depth (RQD 13%, average joint spacing 2 cm, TCR 100%) than at GL- 25 m depth (RQD 41%, average joint spacing 7 cm, TCR 100%) resulted from shorter distance and more fractures. Tracer was transported through the 1 st fractures until the arrival of its peak concentration and through the 2nd fractures or matrix diffusion after the arrival of its peak concentration. The increase/decrease slopes of bromide concentration versus time were 3.46/-1.57 at GL-18 m depth and 3.l9/-0.47 at GL- 25 m depth of the monitoring well. So the faster bromide transport was confirmed at GL- 18 m depth with more fractures. The concentration increment of bromide was fitted by a Gaussian function and the concentration decrement of bromide was fitted by an exponential function. Effective porosity and longitudinal dispersivity estimated by CATTI code were 10.50% and 0.85 m, respectively.

Estimation of Changes in Full Bloom Date of 'Niitaka' Pear Tree with Global Warming (기온 상승에 따른 '신고' 배나무의 만개일 변동 예측)

  • Han, Jeom-Hwa;Cho, Kwang-Sik;Choi, Jang-Jun;Hwang, Hae-Sung;Kim, Chang-Gook;Kim, Tae-Choon
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.937-941
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    • 2010
  • This study investigated the effect of global warming on full bloom date (FBD) of 'Niitaka' pear ($Pyrus$ $pyrifolia$ Nakai) tree by calculating the development stage index by hourly temperatures recorded at Pear Research Station, estimating the distribution of average FBD and the change of FBD according to temperature rising by integrating development rate at 67 locations in Korea Meteorological Administration site. Development stage index of 'Niitaka' pear tree was 0.9593 at Naju location. Differences between full bloom dates observed at Cheonan region and predictions by development stage index were 0-7 days, and matched year was 35.3%. FBDs of 67 locations were distributed from April 4 to May 28. When yearly temperature was raised 1, 2, 3, 4, and $5^{\circ}C$ at 67 locations, predicted FBD was accelerated at most of the locations. However, FBD decelerated at south coast locations from $3^{\circ}C$ rise and did not bloom at 'Gosan', 'Seogwipo', and 'Jeju' locations from $4^{\circ}C$ rise. When monthly temperature was raised 1, 3, and $5^{\circ}C$ at 67 locations, predicted FBD was the most accelerated at March temperature rise, and followed by April, February, January and December. Therefore, global warming will cause acceleration of the full bloom date at pear production areas in Korea.

A View Interpolation Method for Multi-view Video of Large Disparity (변위 범위가 큰 다시점 비디오에 적합한 영상보간법)

  • Lee, Cheon;Oh, Kwan-Jung;Ho, Yo-Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Broadcast Engineers Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.55-58
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    • 2006
  • 차세대 방송서비스 개발의 일환으로 관심을 모으고 있는 다시점 비디오 부호화(multi-view video coding, MVC) 방식은 인접한 여러 대의 카메라로 동시에 획득한 영상을 효과적으로 압축하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이때, 중간시전 영상을 생성하여 부호화하는 과정의 참조영상으로 이용할 수 있으며, 이를 위해서는 다시점 비디오 특성에 맞는 영상보간 방법이 필요하다. 기존에 제안되었던 영상보간법은 변위의 검색범위를 초기에 설정하여 블록정합을 이용하여 화소 단위로 변위를 측정하기 때문에 카메라 사이의 거리가 크거나 객체의 움직임이 커서 변위의 변동이 심한 영상에서는 안정적인 화질의 영상을 얻기 어렵다. 또한, 고정된 크기의 블록을 이용하여 전체 변위를 측정하므로 객체의 변위차가 큰 영역에서 변위 오류가 많이 발생한다. 본 논문에서는 이와 같은 문제를 해결하여 보다 개선된 화질의 중간시점 영상을 얻기 위한 새로운 영상보간법을 제안한다. 영역분할을 이용한 초기의 변위측정 과정에서, 처음부터 최대 변위의 범위를 설정하는 대신에 블록 단위로 대략적인 변위륵 측정한 후에, 가변 블록을 이용하여 보다 세밀한 변위를 측정한다. 이 방법은 변위차가 큰 객체의 경계 부분에서 보다 정확하게 변위를 측정 할 수 있으므로, 화소 단위로 변위를 측정할 때 이전에 추한 변위 정보를 바탕으로 각 화소별로 검색 범위를 설정한다. 적응적으로 설정된 검색 범위를 이용하여 화소 단위의 변위를 측정하면 보다 개선된 변위를 얻을 수 있다. 추가적으로, 변위측정 과정에서 발생하는 변위의 오류를 최대한 줄이기 위해 각 단계별로 미디언 필터를 이용하여 변위 오류를 수정하였다. 본 논문에서 제안한 방법으로 실험한 결과 기존의 영상보간 방법보다 화질이 약 $1{\sim}4dB$ 정도 개선되었다.필, 투명도 등을 위성원격탐사 자료와 GIS를 이용하여 공간분석을 실시하고, 공간분포도를 작성함으로써 대상해역의 해양환경을 파악하였다. 본 연구결과, 분석된 위성자료가 현장조사에 의한 검증이 이루어지지 않을 경우, 영상자료분석을 통한 표층수온 추출은 대기 중의 수증기와 에어로졸에 의한 계산치의 오차가 반영되기 때문에 실측치 보다 낮게 평가 될 수 있으므로, 반드시 이에 대한 검증이 필요함을 알 수 있었다. 현지관측에 비해 막대한 비용과 시간을 절약할 수 있는 위성영상해석방법을 이용한 방법은 해양수질파악이 가능할 것으로 판단되며, GIS를 이용하여 다양하고 복잡한 자료를 데이터베이스화함으로써 가시화하고, 이를 기초로 공간분석을 실시함으로써 환경요소별 공간분포에 대한 파악을 통해 수치모형실험을 이용한 각종 환경영향의 평가 및 예측을 위한 기초자료로 이용이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.염총량관리 기본계획 시 구축된 모형 매개변수를 바탕으로 분석을 수행하였다. 일차오차분석을 이용하여 수리매개변수와 수질매개변수의 수질항목별 상대적 기여도를 파악해 본 결과, 수리매개변수는 DO, BOD, 유기질소, 유기인 모든 항목에 일정 정도의 상대적 기여도를 가지고 있는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이로부터 수질 모형의 적용 시 수리 매개변수 또한 수질 매개변수의 추정 시와 같이 보다 세심한 주의를 기울여 추정할 필요가 있을 것으로 판단된다.변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은

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Program Development to Evaluate Permeability Tensor of Fractured Media Using Borehole Televiewer and BIPS Images and an Assessment of Feasibility of the Program on Field Sites (시추공 텔리뷰어 및 BIPS의 영상자료 해석을 통한 파쇄매질의 투수율텐서 계산 프로그램 개발 및 현장 적용성 평가)

  • 구민호;이동우;원경식
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.187-206
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    • 1999
  • A computer program to numerically predict the permeability tensor of fractured rocks is developed using information on discontinuities which Borehole Televiewer and Borehole Image Processing System (BIPS) provide. It uses orientation and thickness of a large number of discontinuities as input data, and calculates relative values of the 9 elements consisting of the permeability tensor by the formulation based on the EPM model, which regards a fractured rock as a homogeneous, anisotropic porous medium. In order to assess feasibility of the program on field sites, the numerically calculated tensor was obtained using BIPS logs and compared to the results of pumping test conducted in the boreholes of the study area. The degree of horizontal anisotropy and the direction of maximum horizontal permeability are 2.8 and $N77^{\circ}CE$, respectively, determined from the pumping test data, while 3.0 and $N63^{\circ}CE$ from the numerical analysis by the developed program. Disagreement between two analyses, especially for the principal direction of anisotropy, seems to be caused by problems in analyzing the pumping test data, in applicability of the EPM model and the cubic law, and in simplified relationship between the crack size and aperture. Aside from these problems, consideration of hydraulic parameters characterizing roughness of cracks and infilling materials seems to be required to improve feasibility of the proposed program. Three-dimensional assessment of its feasibility on field sites can be accomplished by conducting a series of cross-hole packer tests consisting of an injecting well and a monitoring well at close distance.

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An Estimation of Long-term Settlements in the Large Reclamation Site and Determination of Additional Sampling Positions Using Geostntistics and GIS (GIS 및 지구통계학을 적용한 대규모 매립지반의 장기 침하량 예측 및 추가 지반조사 위치의 결정)

  • Lee, Hyuk-Jin;Park, Sa-Won;Yoo, Si-Dong;Kim, Hong-Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.131-141
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    • 2004
  • For geotechnical applications, engineers use data obtained from a site investigation to interpret the structure and potential behavior of the subsurface. In most cases, these data consist of samples that represent 1/100,000 or less of the total volume of soil. These samples and associated field and lab testing provide the information used to estimate soil parameter values. The resulting values are estimated ones and there exists some likelihood that actual soil conditions are significantly different from the estimates. This may be the case even if the sampling and interpretation procedures are performed in accordance with standard practice. Although these efforts have been made to characterize the uncertainty associated with geotechnical parameters, there is no commonly accepted method to evaluate quantitatively the quality of an investigation plan as a whole or the relative significance of individual sampling points or potential sampling points.

Performance Comparison of the Batch Filter Based on the Unscented Transformation and Other Batch Filters for Satellite Orbit Determination (인공위성 궤도결정을 위한 Unscented 변환 기반의 배치필터와 다른 배치필터들과의 성능비교)

  • Park, Eun-Seo;Park, Sang-Young;Choi, Kyu-Hong
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.75-88
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    • 2009
  • The main purpose of the current research is to introduce the alternative algorithm of the non-recursive batch filter based on the unscented transformation in which the linearization process is unnecessary. The presented algorithm is applied to the orbit determination of a low earth orbiting satellite and compared its results with those of the well-known Bayesian batch least squares estimation and the iterative UKF smoother (IUKS). The system dynamic equations consist of the Earth's geo-potential, the atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure and the lunar/solar gravitational perturbations. The range, azimuth and elevation angles of the satellite measured from ground stations are used for orbit determination. The characteristics of the non recursive unscented batch filter are analyzed for various aspects, including accuracy of the determined orbit, sensitivity to the initial uncertainty, measurement noise and stability performance in a realistic dynamic system and measurement model. As a result, under large non-linear conditions, the presented non-recursive batch filter yields more accurate results than the other batch filters about 5% for initial uncertainty test and 12% for measurement noise test. Moreover, the presented filter exhibits better convergence reliability than the Bayesian least squares. Hence, it is concluded that the non-recursive batch filter based on the unscented transformation is effectively applicable for highly nonlinear batch estimation problems.