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Estimation of Changes in Full Bloom Date of 'Niitaka' Pear Tree with Global Warming  

Han, Jeom-Hwa (National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science)
Cho, Kwang-Sik (National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science)
Choi, Jang-Jun (National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science)
Hwang, Hae-Sung (National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science)
Kim, Chang-Gook (National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Kim, Tae-Choon (Department of Horticulture, Wonkwang University)
Publication Information
Horticultural Science & Technology / v.28, no.6, 2010 , pp. 937-941 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study investigated the effect of global warming on full bloom date (FBD) of 'Niitaka' pear ($Pyrus$ $pyrifolia$ Nakai) tree by calculating the development stage index by hourly temperatures recorded at Pear Research Station, estimating the distribution of average FBD and the change of FBD according to temperature rising by integrating development rate at 67 locations in Korea Meteorological Administration site. Development stage index of 'Niitaka' pear tree was 0.9593 at Naju location. Differences between full bloom dates observed at Cheonan region and predictions by development stage index were 0-7 days, and matched year was 35.3%. FBDs of 67 locations were distributed from April 4 to May 28. When yearly temperature was raised 1, 2, 3, 4, and $5^{\circ}C$ at 67 locations, predicted FBD was accelerated at most of the locations. However, FBD decelerated at south coast locations from $3^{\circ}C$ rise and did not bloom at 'Gosan', 'Seogwipo', and 'Jeju' locations from $4^{\circ}C$ rise. When monthly temperature was raised 1, 3, and $5^{\circ}C$ at 67 locations, predicted FBD was the most accelerated at March temperature rise, and followed by April, February, January and December. Therefore, global warming will cause acceleration of the full bloom date at pear production areas in Korea.
Keywords
development rate; endodormancy; inverse distance weighted; Pyrus pyrifolia;
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