• Title/Summary/Keyword: 간접추계법

Search Result 11, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Development of Nonsurvey Method of Input-Output Analysis for Production and Attraction Freight Flow Estimation According to Region (지역별 발생집중 화물량 추정을 위한 산업연관분석의 Nonsurvey법 개발에 관한 연구)

  • AN, Sihyoung;IIDA, Katuhiro;MORI, Yasuo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.79-98
    • /
    • 1998
  • 교통계획의 수립은 사람과 화물의 이동상태에 대한 파악으로부터 시작되며 화물이동상태를 파악 하기 위한 가장 기본적인 데이터는 지역별 발생집중 화물량일 것이다. 이러한 지역별 발생집중 화물량의 추계방법중 추계의 간편성과 경제상황변화의 반영이 용이하다는 점에서, 최근 학자들의 상당한 주목 을 받으며 연구되고 있는 것이 산업연관분석을 응용한 물류해석방법이다. 그러나 이방법은 대상지역의 산업연관표를 기본 data로 하기 때문에 해당지역의 산업연관표의 존재 여부에 따라서 그 적용범위가 제한된다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해서 연구되고 있는 방법이 Nonsurvey법이다. Nonsurvey법은 대 지역의 산업연관표로부터 그 지역에 포함된 소지역의 산업연관표를 여러 가지 보조적인 데이터를 이용해 서 간접적으로 추계하는 방법이다. 본연구에서는 이러한 Nonsurvey법의 하나로서 대지역의 산업연관표 와 지역분해된 각 소지역의 산업부문별 생산량만을 이용해서 각 소지역의 발생집중화물량을 추계하는 방법을 제안했다. 그리고 일본의 긴키(Kinki)지역과 이에 속하는 4부현을 대상으로 본연구의 방법으로 추계된 이출입양과 실제의 산업연관표상의 이출입량을 비교.분석함으로써 본 연구의 방법에 대한 검증을 실시했다. 본 연구에서 제아한 지역별 발생집중 화물량 추계방법의 특징은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 대지역내 각 소지역간의 이출입량이 분기계수라고 하는 산업관계표의 산업관계표의 행방향의 합에 대한 비율을 사용함으로서 간단히 추계가능 하다. 둘째, 추계된 소지역의 산업관계표는 대지역에 대한 시스템전체의 정합성이 유지된다. 셋째 분해되는 소지역의 수에 관계없이 각소지역의 이출입양에 대한 추계가 가능하다.

  • PDF

Life Cycle Assessment of Steel Box Girder Bridge (강교량구조물의 환경적합성에 관한 전과정평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyo;Choi, Moon-Seock;Cho, Kwang-Il;Yoon, Ji-Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.31 no.4A
    • /
    • pp.269-278
    • /
    • 2011
  • Recently, methods on minimizing environmental effect caused from human-made goods have been studied in various research fields. Such issue has been also spotlighted into the civil engineering field; however, application of environmental performance assessment on civil structures is very complicated, since they handles vast ranges of materials and has comparatively long life span with various construction stages. Thus, this study intended to apply environmental performance assessment into an ordinary type of steel box girder bridge, using most popular Life cycle assessment (LCA) procedures, which are called Survey-based method and Indirect method. For better comparison of two methods, greenhouse effect of the example bridge is considered. As result of analysis, total $CO_2$ emission is evaluated as 241.27 ton with Survey-based method while it is evaluated as 221.03 ton with Indirect method. It is also revealed that most $CO_2$ is generated from the process of manufacturing and producing construction materials. Such result indicates that the efficient design which secures certain level of structural safety with minimized input materials. It is considered that the specific LCA on civil structure performed in this study could be utilized to other civil structures for reasonable environmental performance assessment.

Stochastic Prediction of Strong Ground Motions in Southern Korea (추계학적 보사법을 이용한 한반도 남부에서의 강지진동 연구)

  • 조남대;박창업
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.17-26
    • /
    • 2001
  • In order to estimate peak ground motions and frequency characteristics of strong ground motions in southern korea, we employed the stochastic simulation method with the moment magnitude(M$_{w}$) and the hypocentral distance(R). We estimated same input parameters that account for specific properties of source and propagation processes, and applied them to the stochastic simulation method. The stress drop($\Delta$$\sigma$) of 100-bar was estimated considering results of research in ENA, China, and southern korea. The attenuation parameter x was calculated by analyzing 57 seismograms recorded from September 1996 to October 1997 and the estimation result of the attenuation parameter x is 0.00112+0.000224 R where R is hypocenter distance. We estimated strong ground motion relations using the stochastic simulation method with suitable input parameters(e.g. $\Delta$$\sigma$, x, and so on). At last, we derived relations between hypocentral distances and ground motions(seismic attenuation equation) using results of the stochastic prediction.esults of the stochastic prediction.n.

  • PDF

A Study on the Functional Unit Trend of Carbon Dioxide Emission in the Construction Materials between 2000, 2003 and 2005 (건축재료의 이산화탄소 배출원단위 변화추이연구)

  • Lee, KangHee;Lee, HaShik;Yang, JaeHyuk
    • KIEAE Journal
    • /
    • v.10 no.5
    • /
    • pp.123-129
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study aimed at analyzing the trend of carbon dioxide emission for direct and indirect areas by using inter industry relations table between 2000, 2003 and 2005 in the key building materials and components. Results of this study are as follows; First, the material and components for this study was selected in 20 industries of products such as sand, gravel, cement, concrete articles, rebar, and steel bar. Second, among the 20 selected key building materials, the group with the highest carbon-dioxide emission was shown in ready-mixed concrete, concrete articles, and primary aluminum goods. Third, as a result of analyzing the changes to the units of carbon dioxide emission according to passage of time, the number of items which is changed in such as sustained increase or decrease over time was insignificant in carbon-emission change trend.

Estimation of Spectrum Decay Parameter χ and Stochastic Prediction of Strong Ground Motions in Southeastern Korea (한반도 남동부에서 부지효과를 고려한 스펙트럼 감쇠상수 χ 추정 및 강지진동의 추계학적 모사)

  • 조남대;박창업
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.7 no.6
    • /
    • pp.59-70
    • /
    • 2003
  • We estimated the spectrum decay parameter $\chi$ and the stress parameter ($\Delta$$\sigma$) in southeastern Korea. Especially, we propose a procedure to compute site-independent $\chi$$_{q}$ and dependent $\chi$$_{s}$ values, separately, This procedure is to use the coda normalization method for the computation of site independent Q or corresponding $\chi$$_{q}$ value as the first step followed by the next step, the computation of $\chi$$_{s}$ values for each site using the given $\chi$$_{q}$ value evaluated at the first step, For the estimation of stress parameter, we used seismic data monitored from three earthquakes occurred near Gyeongju in 1999 with the method of Jo and Baag, In addition, we simulated strong ground motion using the $\chi$ value and the stress parameter, In this case, we calculated the $\chi$ value with conventional method. The $\chi$ value of 0.016+0.000157R and the stress parameter of 92-bar was applied to the stochastic simulation, At last, we derived seismic attenuation equation using results of the stochastic prediction, and compared these results with some others reported previously.ported previously.

Efficient Structral Safety Monitoring of Large Structures Using Substructural Identification (부분구조추정법을 이용한 대형구조물의 효율적인 구조안전도 모니터링)

  • 윤정방;이형진
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.1 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-15
    • /
    • 1997
  • This paper presents substructural identification methods for the assessment of local damages in complex and large structural systems. For this purpose, an auto-regressive and moving average with stochastic input (ARMAX) model is derived for a substructure to process the measurement data impaired by noises. Using the substructural methods, the number of unknown parameters for each identification can be significantly reduced, hence the convergence and accuracy of estimation can be improved. Secondly, the damage index is defined as the ratio of the current stiffness to the baseline value at each element for the damage assessment. The indirect estimation method was performed using the estimated results from the identification of the system matrices from the substructural identification. To demonstrate the proposed techniques, several simulation and experimental example analyses are carried out for structural models of a 2-span truss structure, a 3-span continuous beam model and 3-story building model. The results indicate that the present substructural identification method and damage estimation methods are effective and efficient for local damage estimation of complex structures.

  • PDF

The Risk Assessment and Prediction for the Mixed Deterioration in Cable Bridges Using a Stochastic Bayesian Modeling (확률론적 베이지언 모델링에 의한 케이블 교량의 복합열화 리스크 평가 및 예측시스템)

  • Cho, Tae Jun;Lee, Jeong Bae;Kim, Seong Soo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.16 no.5
    • /
    • pp.29-39
    • /
    • 2012
  • The main objective is to predict the future degradation and maintenance budget for a suspension bridge system. Bayesian inference is applied to find the posterior probability density function of the source parameters (damage indices and serviceability), given ten years of maintenance data. The posterior distribution of the parameters is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The simulated risk prediction for decreased serviceability conditions are posterior distributions based on prior distribution and likelihood of data updated from annual maintenance tasks. Compared with conventional linear prediction model, the proposed quadratic model provides highly improved convergence and closeness to measured data in terms of serviceability, risky factors, and maintenance budget for bridge components, which allows forecasting a future performance and financial management of complex infrastructures based on the proposed quadratic stochastic regression model.

The societal cost of rotavirus infection in South Korea (한국에서 로타바이러스 급성 위장관염의 질병 부담)

  • Yang, Bong Min;Jo, Dae Sun;Kim, Youn Hee;Hong, Ji Min;Kim, Jung Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
    • /
    • v.51 no.9
    • /
    • pp.977-986
    • /
    • 2008
  • Purpose : This study aims to estimate the financial cost of rotavirus infection in Korea in the year of 2005. Methods : The incidence rates used were from the epidemiological profile at Jeoungeub District (5.8 cases/1,000 children <5 years old for inpatients, and 22.65 cases/1,000 children <5 years old for outpatients, per year). The health care cost per capita of rotavirus infection (ICD code: A08.0) was extracted from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database in Korea. The patient survey was conducted to capture information about non-medical costs and associated productivity loss incurred by adult caregivers. Results : The number of annual national cases among children <5 years old with rotavirus infection was estimated to be 69,122 (i.e., 55,030 outpatients and 14,092 inpatients). The total cost of rotavirus infection was estimated at 13.3 billion Korean won, comprising 11 billion Korean won (82.7%) of direct medical costs, 1.6 billion Korean won (12.0%) of direct non-medical costs (e.g., transportation and supplies), and 0.68 billion Korean won (5.1%) of productivity lost by adult caregivers. Conclusion : Rotavirus infection carries not only medical costs but also non-medical and indirect costs; together, these costs incur a significant burden on South Korean society. The impact of rotavirus on quality of life and health among patient caregivers was not considered in this study, but it does merit further research.

Modeling of Near Fault Ground Motion due to Moderate Magnitude Earthquakes in Stable Continental Regions (안정대륙권역의 중규모지진에 의한 근단층지반운동의 모델링)

  • Kim, Jung-Han;Kim, Jae-Kwan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.10 no.3 s.49
    • /
    • pp.101-111
    • /
    • 2006
  • This paper proposes a method for modeling new fault ground motion due to moderate size earthquakes in Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) for the first time. The near fault ground motion is characterized by a single long period velocity pulse of large amplitude. In order to model the velocity pulse, its period and peak amplitude need be determined in terms of earthquake magnitude and distance from the causative fault. Because there have been observed very few new fault ground motions, it is difficult to derive the model directly from the recorded data in SCRs. Instead an indirect approach is adopted in this work. The two parameters, the period and peak amplitude of the velocity pulse, are known to be functions of the rise time and the slip velocity. For Western United States (WUS) that belongs active tectonic regions, there art empirical formulas for these functions. The relations of rise time and slip velocity on the magnitude in SCRs are derived by comparing related data between Western United States and Central-Eastern United States that belongs to SCRs. From these relations, the functions of these pulse parameters for NFGM in SCRs can be expressed in terms of earthquake magnitude and distance. A time history of near fault ground motion of moderate magnitude earthquake in stable continental regions is synthesized by superposing the velocity pulse on the for field ground motion that is generated by stochastic method. As an demonstrative application, the response of a single degree of freedom elasto-plastic system is studied.

An Analysis of Sectoral GHG Emission Intensity from Energy Use in Korea (기후변화 협약 대응을 위한 산업별 온실가스 배출 특성 분석)

  • Chung, Whan-Sam;Tohno, Susumu;Shim, Sang-Yul
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
    • /
    • v.11 no.2
    • /
    • pp.264-286
    • /
    • 2008
  • In 2006, the share of energy in Korea amounted to 28% from the total import, 97% from overseas dependency, and 83% for the national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission in 2004. Thus, from the aspects of economical and environmental policies, an energy analysis is very important, for the industry to cope with the imminent pressure for climate change. However, the estimation of GHG gas emissions due to an energy use is still done in a primitive way, whereby each industry's usage is multiplied by coefficients recommended from international organizations in Korea. At this level, it is impossible to formulate the prevailing logic and policies in face of a new paradigm that seeks to force participation of developing countries through so called post-Kyoto Protocol. In this study, a hybrid energy input-output (E-IO) analysis is conducted on the basis of the input-output(IO) table of 2000 issued by the Bank of Korea in 2003. Furthermore, according to economic sectors, emission of the GHG relative to an energy use is characterized. The analysis is accomplished from four points of view as follows: 1) estimating the GHG emission intensity by 96 sectors, 2) measuring the contribution ratio to GHG emissions by 14 energy sources, 3) calculating the emission factor of 3 GHG compounds, and 4) estimating the total amount of national GHG emission. The total amount estimated in this study is compared with a national official statistical number. The approach could be an appropriate model for the recently spreading concept of a Life Cycle Analysis as it analyzes not only a direct GHG emission from a direct energy use but also an associated emission from an indirect use. We expect this model can provide a form for the basis of a future GHG reduction policy making.

  • PDF