• Title/Summary/Keyword: 간이 예측 모델

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Research on Advanced Measures for Emergency Response to Water Accidents based on Big-Data (빅데이터 기반 수도사고 위기대응 고도화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ho-sung;Kim, Jong-rip;Kim, Jae-jong;Yoon, Young-min;Kim, Dae-kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.317-321
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    • 2022
  • In response to Incheon tap water accident in 2019, the Ministry of Environment has created the "Comprehensive Measures for Water Safety Management" to improve water operation management, provide systematic technical support, and respond to accidents. Accordingly, K-water is making a smart water supply management system for the entire process of tap water. In order to advance the response to water accidents, it is essential to secure the reliability of real-time water operation data such as flow rate, pressure, and water level, and to develop and apply a warning algorithm in advance using big data analysis techniques. In this paper, various statistical techniques are applied using water supply operation data (flow, pressure, water level, etc) to prepare the foundation for the selection of the optimal operating range and advancement of the monitoring and alarm system. In addition, the arrival time is analyzed through cross-correlation analysis of changes in raw water turbidity between the water intake and water treatment plants. The purpose of this paper is to study the model that predicts the raw water turbidity of a water treatment plant by applying raw water turbidity data considering the time delay according to the flow rate change.

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Prediction of the Natural Frequency of Pile Foundation System in Sand during Earthquake (사질토 지반에 놓인 지진하중을 받는 말뚝 기초 시스템의 고유 진동수 예측)

  • Yang, Eui-Kyu;Kwon, Sun-Yong;Choi, Jung-In;Kim, Myoung-Mo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2010
  • It is important to calculate the natural frequency of a piled structure in the design stage in order to prevent resonance-induced damage to the pile foundation and analyze the dynamic behavior of the piled structure during an earthquake. In this paper, a simple but relatively accurate method employing a mass-spring model is presented for the evaluation of the natural frequency of a pile-soil system. Greatly influencing the calculation of the natural frequency of a piled structure, the spring stiffness between a pile and soil was evaluated by using the coefficient of subgrade reaction, the p-y curve, and the subsoil elastic modulus. The resulting natural frequencies were compared with those of 1-g shaking table tests. The comparison showed that the natural frequency of the pile-soil system could be most accurately calculated by constructing a stiffness matrix with the spring stiffness of the Reese (1974) method, which utilizes the coefficient of the subgrade reaction modulus, and Yang's (2009) dynamic p-y backbone curve method. The calculated natural frequencies were within 5% error compared with those of the shaking table tests for the pile system in dry dense sand deposits and 5% to 40% error for the pile system in saturated sand deposits depending on the occurrence of excess pore water pressure in the soil.

Numerical investigation on cavitation and non-cavitation flow noise on pumpjet propulsion (펌프젯 추진기의 공동 비공동 유동소음에 대한 수치적 연구)

  • Garam Ku;Cheolung Cheong;Hanshin Seol;Hongseok Jeong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.250-261
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    • 2023
  • In this study, the noise contributions by the duct, stator and rotor, which are the propulsor components, are evaluated to identify the flow noise source in cavitation and non-cavitation conditions on pumpjet propulsion and the noise levels in both conditions are compared. The unsteady incompressible Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation based on the homogeneous mixture assumption is applied on the suboff submarine hull and pumpjet propeller in the cavitation tunnel, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method and Schnerr-Sauer cavitation model are used to describe the two-phase flow. Based on the flow simulation results, the acoustic analogy formulated by Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) equation is applied to predict the underwater radiated noise. The noise contributions are evaluated by using the three types of impermeable integral surface on the duct, stator and rotor, and the two types of permeable integral surface surrounding the propulsor. As a result of noise prediction, the contribution by the stator is insignificant, but it affects the generation of flow noise source due to flow separation in the duct and rotor, and the noise is predominantly radiated into the upward and right where the flow separations are. Also, the noise is radiated into the thrust direction due to pressure fluctuation between suction and pressure sides on the rotor blades, and the it can be seen that the cavitation effect into the noise can be considered through the permeable integral surface.

Water resources planning for the Sesan and Srepok river basin in Vietnam using DSS-2S based on MIKE Hydro Basin (MIKE Hydro Basin 기반 DSS-2S를 활용한 베트남 Sesan 및 Srepok 강 유역 수자원 계획 수립)

  • Choi, Byung Man;Ko, Ick Hwan;Kim, Jeongkon;Pi, Wan Seop;Oh, Yoon Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.43-43
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    • 2021
  • Sesan강과 Srepok강은 베트남, 캄보디아, 라오스가 공유하는 3S강 유역 (Sesan강, Srepok강, Sekong강)의 일부로 국제 공유하천으로 관리되고 있다. 3S강 유역은 Mekong강의 중요한 지류이며 Mekong강 유역의 상당 부분을 구성한다(Mekong강 유역 면적의 10%, 연간 총 유출량의 20%). 베트남에 속해 있는 Sesan강 유역면적은 11,255km2, Srepok강 유역면적은 18,162km2이다. Sesan강과 Srepok강의 상류는 베트남 중부 고원의 긴 산맥에 위치하고 있으며, 하류는 캄보디아에 위치해 있어 상·하류간 긴밀한 협력이 필요하다. Sesan강과 Srepok강 유역은 기후변화에 따른 홍수, 가뭄, 수력발전소 건설로 인한 유출량 변동에 따른 상·하류 분쟁, 사면침식 및 퇴적 등 많은 문제와 도전에 직면할 것으로 예측되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 World Bank의 "Viet Nam Mekong Integrated Water Resources Management (M-IWRM) Project의 일환으로 베트남 정부 차원에서 처음으로 구축한 수자원관리 의사결정지원시스템인 "DSS-2S"를 활용하여, Sesan-Srepok강 유역의 수자원 계획을 수립하였다. DSS-2S는 MIKE Hydro Basin을 기반으로 SWAT모델 등과 연계 하여 구축되었다. DSS-2S는 2S 유역의 모든 주요 하천과 지류를 반영하였으며. 여기에는 17개의 수력발전 댐과 주요 지류에서 용량이 3백만 m3 이상인 기타 저수지가 포함되었다. 이 보다 작은 용량의 저수지는 대표적인 저수지로 그룹화 되어 반영되었다. 기후변화 및 사회-경제적 발전계획 등을 반영하여, 2030년과 2050년을 목표연도로 생활, 공업, 농업, 관광, 유지용수 등 용수 수요를 추정하였다. 50% 및 85% 빈도의 공급 가능성을 고려하여 물 배분은 물 수요를 충족하고 지하수 개발 최소화를 기준으로 고려되었다. 분석 결과에 의하면 2S강 유역의 총 수자원은 32.2억 m3으로 그중 지표수자원은 29.2억 m3, 안정적으로 이용 가능한 지하수자원은 2.97억 m3으로 분석 되었으며, 지표수와 지하수 연계를 고려하면 전체 2S 강 유역에 물 부족하지는 않으나, 개별 공급 지점을 고려할 때 4월과 5월에 일부 지역에서 물 부족이 나타날 것으로 예측 된다. 장래 물 부족 해결을 위한 대안들을 제시하였으며, 본 성과는 베트남 중앙 정부의 장기수자원 종합계획 수립의 기본 자료로 활용 될 예정이다.

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Development of a UAV-Based Urban Thermal Comfort Assessment Method (UAV 기반 도시 공간의 열 쾌적성 평가기법 개발)

  • Seounghyeon Kim;Bonggeun Song;Kyunghun Park
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.61-77
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a method for rapidly diagnosing urban thermal comfort using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) based data. The research was conducted at Changwon National University's College of Engineering site and Yongji Park, both located in Changwon, Gyeongsangnam-do. Baseline data were collected using field measurements and UAVs. Specifically, the study calculated field measurement-based thermal comfort indices PET and UTCI, and used UAVs to create and analyze vegetation index (NDVI), sky view factor (SVF), and land surface temperature (LST) images. The results showed that UAV-predicted PET and UTCI had high correlations of 0.662 and 0.721, respectively, within a 1% significance level. The explanatory power of the prediction model was 43.8% for PET and 52.6% for UTCI, with RMSE values of 6.32℃ for PET and 3.16℃ for UTCI, indicating that UTCI is more suitable for UAV-based thermal comfort evaluation. The developed method offers significant time-saving advantages over traditional approaches and can be utilized for real-time urban thermal comfort assessment and mitigation planning

Tour-based Personalized Trip Analysis and Calibration Method for Activity-based Traffic Demand Modelling (활동기반 교통수요 모델링을 위한 투어기반 통행분석 및 보정방안)

  • Yegi Yoo;Heechan Kang;Seungmo Yoo;Taeho Oh
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.32-48
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    • 2023
  • Autonomous driving technology is shaping the future of personalized travel, encouraging personalized travel, and traffic impact could be influenced by individualized travel behavior during the transition of driving entity from human to machine. In order to evaluate traffic impact, it is necessary to estimate the total number of trips based on an understanding of individual travel characteristics. The Activity-based model(ABM), which allows for the reflection of individual travel characteristics, deals with all travel sequences of an individual. Understanding the relationship between travel and travel must be important for assessing traffic impact using ABM. However, the ABM has a limitation in the data hunger model. It is difficult to adjust in the actual demand forecasting. Therefore, we utilized a Tour-based model that can explain the relationship between travels based on household travel survey data instead. After that, vehicle registration and population data were used for correction. The result showed that, compared to the KTDB one, the traffic generation exhibited a 13% increase in total trips and approximately 9% reduction in working trips, valid within an acceptable margin of error. As a result, it can be used as a generation correction method based on Tour, which can reflect individual travel characteristics, prior to building an activity-based model to predict demand due to the introduction of autonomous vehicles in terms of road operation, which is the ultimate goal of this study.

Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

The Trend of Inpatients in California State Hospitals and Its Implications for Mental Health Policies in Korea (캘리포니아주 주립병원 입원환자들의 변화 추세 및 한국 정신보건제도의 발전을 위한 정책적 함의)

  • Hwang, Sung-Dong
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.39
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    • pp.350-373
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    • 1999
  • The patient population of U. S. state mental hospitals has changed drastically since the 1960s, when the deintstitutionalization movement began. This paper is designed to look at what happened to the number of inpatients of state hospitals in California during the last 150 years and, from this, to explore implications for the future of the mental health system in Korea, especially for the viability of mental hospitals. The data had been collected by field research(visits to state hospitals and State Department of Mental Health, and interviews with mental health administrators) and accessing statistical publications and various reports. Since the first state hospital opened in 1851 the statewide inpatient population of individuals who were mentally disabled has grown and peaked at 37,489 in 1959. The number of patients in state hospitals, however, began declining in the early 1960s and was reduced to 10,874 by 1971, and to 4,973 by 1986. As of 1997, there were only 4, 263 inpatients remaining in the state hospital system. This dramatic decrease slowed down somewhat in 1980s and 1990s, but this trend seems irreversible except for the inpatients referred by the court. Now the beds in state hospitals are filled with more and more forensic patients, which constitutes nearly 70% of the total inpatient population. Based on these findings, it is well expected that the number of inpatients of mental hospitals in Korea will also be reduced in a significant way as the community-based mental health care system is gradually replacing the traditional one. Mental hospitals need to introduce more diversified programs for the care of the mentally ill, and concurrently more vigorous aftercare programs are required in the community.

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Impact of Sulfur Dioxide Impurity on Process Design of $CO_2$ Offshore Geological Storage: Evaluation of Physical Property Models and Optimization of Binary Parameter (이산화황 불순물이 이산화탄소 해양 지중저장 공정설계에 미치는 영향 평가: 상태량 모델의 비교 분석 및 이성분 매개변수 최적화)

  • Huh, Cheol;Kang, Seong-Gil;Cho, Mang-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2010
  • Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage(CCS) is regarded as one of the most promising options to response climate change. CCS is a three-stage process consisting of the capture of carbon dioxide($CO_2$), the transport of $CO_2$ to a storage location, and the long term isolation of $CO_2$ from the atmosphere for the purpose of carbon emission mitigation. Up to now, process design for this $CO_2$ marine geological storage has been carried out mainly on pure $CO_2$. Unfortunately the $CO_2$ mixture captured from the power plants and steel making plants contains many impurities such as $N_2$, $O_2$, Ar, $H_2O$, $SO_2$, $H_2S$. A small amount of impurities can change the thermodynamic properties and then significantly affect the compression, purification, transport and injection processes. In order to design a reliable $CO_2$ marine geological storage system, it is necessary to analyze the impact of these impurities on the whole CCS process at initial design stage. The purpose of the present paper is to compare and analyse the relevant physical property models including BWRS, PR, PRBM, RKS and SRK equations of state, and NRTL-RK model which are crucial numerical process simulation tools. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the equation of the state for $CO_2-SO_2$ mixture, we compared numerical calculation results with reference experimental data. In addition, optimum binary parameter to consider the interaction of $CO_2$ and $SO_2$ molecules was suggested based on the mean absolute percent error. In conclusion, we suggest the most reliable physical property model with optimized binary parameter in designing the $CO_2-SO_2$ mixture marine geological storage process.

Understanding the protox inhibition activity of novel 1-(5-methyl-3-phenylisoxazolin-5-yl)methoxy-2-chloro-4-fluorobenzene derivatives using comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) methodology (비교 분자장 분석 (CoMFA) 방법에 따른 1-(5-methyl-3-phenylisoxazolin-5-yl)methoxy-2-chloro-4-fluoro-benzene 유도체들의 Protox 저해 활성에 관한 이해)

  • Sung, Nack-Do;Song, Jong-Hwan;Yang, Sook-Young;Park, Kyeng-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.151-161
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    • 2004
  • Three dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships (3D-QSAR) studies for the protox inhibition activities against root and shoot of rice plant (Orysa sativa L.) and barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli) by a series of new A=3,4,5,6-tetrahydrophthalimino, B=3-chloro-4,5,6,7-tetrahydro-2H-indazolyl and C=3,4-dimethylmaleimino group, and R-group substituted on the phenyl ring in 1-(5-methyl-3-phenylisoxazolin-5-yl)methoxy-2chloro-4-fluorobenzene derivatives were performed using comparative molecular field analyses (CoMFA) methodology with Gasteiger-Huckel charge. Four CoMFA models for the protox inhibition activities against root and shoot of the two plants were generated using 46 molecules as training set and the predictive ability of the each models was evaluated against a test set of 8 molecules. And the statistical results of these models with combination (SIH) of standard field, indicator field and H-bond field showed the best predictability of the protox inhibition activities based on the cross-validated value $r^2_{cv.}$ $(q^2=0.635\sim0.924)$, conventional coefficient $(r^2_{ncv.}=0.928\sim0.977)$ and PRESS value $(0.091\sim0.156)$, respectively. The activities exhibited a strong correlation with steric $(74.3\sim87.4%)$, electrostatic $(10.10\sim18.5%)$ and hydrophobic $(1.10\sim8.30%)$ factors of the molecules. The steric feature of molecule may be an important factor for the activities. We founded that an novel selective and higher protox inhibitors between the two plants may be designed by modification of X-subsitutents for barnyardgrass based upon the results obtained from CoMFA analyses.