• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가중평균모형

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Experimental Study on the Effectiveness of Recurved Seawalls in Reducing Wave Overtopping Rate (반파형 안벽구조물의 월파 저감효과에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Sam;Lee, Suck-Chan;Lee, Kwang-Ho
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.325-332
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    • 2021
  • As commercial and residential areas are actively developed around the coastal area with excellent scenery, installing coastal structures such as seawalls and breakwaters is continuously increasing to secure safe coastal regions. Additionally, the increase in the intensity of natural disasters due to climate change may cause higher incident waves than in the past, which may further aggravate the damage caused by wave overtopping. In this study, compared to the existing vertical seawall, we investigated the effect of wave overtopping reduction of a recurved seawall, which actively reflects the incoming waves, through the hydraulic model test. As a result of the hydraulic model experiment, it was confirmed that there was an effect of up to 92.4% of wave overtopping reduction in average compared to the vertical seawall and structures covered with armor blocks.

Differences in Flood Runoff Regarding Climate Changes Utilizing GSSHA Model on the Bukhan River Basin (GSSHA를 활용한 북한강 유역 미래 홍수량 변화 예측 연구)

  • Shin, Jea-Whan;Jang, Suk-Hwan;Choi, Hong-Chan;Yoon, Tae-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.39-39
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    • 2022
  • 최근 전 지구적인 기후변화로 인하여, 극한기후일수 증가, 이상기후 등의 환경문제가 심화되고 있으며, 이는 이·치수 측면에서 물관리 정책 수립 등의 어려움을 가중시키고 있다. 더욱이 우리나라는 산악지형이 많고 수계형태가 복잡한 지형적 특성과 여름철에 연강수량이 집중되는 계절적 특성을 지니고 있어 수자원의 효율적인 관리가 어려운 실정이다. 연구 대상 유역은 DMZ 이북의 미계측 유역을 포함한 북한강 전체유역을 대상으로 하였으며, 주요 댐 유역별로 세분하여 6개 댐유역(화천댐, 춘천댐, 소양강댐, 의암댐, 청평댐, 팔당댐)에서 홍수량 분석을 실시하였다. 이때 상류의 미계측 유역을 분석하기 위해 격자기반으로 매개변수의 물리적인 계산이 가능한 분포형 모형인 GSSHA 모형을 활용하였다. 또한 온실가스 저감 정책의 실현 여부에 따른 저탄소 및 고탄소 기후변화 시나리오를, 미래 전·중·후반기의 기간별로 적용하여, 현재를 포함한 7가지 시나리오를 반영하였다. 연구결과, 미래 전반기에서는 홍수량이 다소 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며 미래 중반기 및 후반기에서는 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 소유역별 분석 결과를 종합하면, 탄소 배출 농도에 따른 평균 홍수량 변화율은 저탄소 시나리오에서는 -1.03 %에서 +4.01 %, 고탄소 시나리오에서는 -4.54 %에서 +17.73 %로 나타났다. 저탄소와 고탄소 시나리오를 비교하면 홍수량 변화율 차이는 미래 기간 및 소유역 마다 상이하지만, 최소 359 %에서 최대 527 %까지 차이를 보였다. 따라서 인류의 탄소저감 노력은 기후변화 자체를 막을 수는 없으나, 그 영향을 최대 5배 이상 감소할 수 있다는 결론을 도출하였다. 본 연구는 북한강 유역의 미래 기간별 확률홍수량 예측값 및 수문특성의 변화 전망을 주요 댐 유역에서 정량적으로 제시하였다. 이에 따라 본 연구가 향후 기후변화에 대비한 이·치수 정책 마련 및 접경지역의 재난예방에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Investigation of the change in physical habitat in the Geum-gang River by modifying dam operations to natural flow regime (자연유황 회복을 위한 댐 운영에 따른 금강의 물리서식처 변화 분석)

  • Choi, Byungwoong;Jang, Jiyeon;Choi, Sung-Uk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.985-998
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    • 2021
  • In general, the upstream dam changes downstream flow regime dramatically, i.e., from natural flow regime to hydropeaking flows. This study investigates the impact of the natural flow pattern on downstream fish habitat in a regulated river in Korea using the physical habitat simulation. The study area is a 13.4 km long reach of the Geum-gang River, located downstream from the Yongdam Dam, Korea. A field monitoring revealed that three fish species are dominant, namely Zacco platypus, Coreoleuciscus splendidus, and Opsariichthys bidens, and they account for 70% of the total fish community. Specially, Opsariichthys bidens is an indigenous species in the Geum-gang River. The three fish species are selected as target fish species for the physical habitat simulation. The Nays2D model, a 2D shallow water equation solver, and the HSI (Habitat Suitability Index) model are used for hydraulic and habitat simulations, respectively. To assess the impact of the natural flow pattern, this study uses the annual natural flow regime and hydropeaking flows from the dam. It is found that the natural flow regime increases significantly the Composite Suitability Index (CSI) in the study reach. Then, using the Building Block Approach (BBA), the scenarios for the modifying dam operations are presented in the study reach. Both Scenario 1 and scenario 2 are proposed by using the hydrological method considering both magnitude and duration of the inflow and averaging the inflow over each month, respectively. It is revealed that the natural flow regime embodied in scenario 1 and scenario 2 increases the Weighted Usable Area (WUA) significantly, compared to the hydropeaking flows. In conclusion, the modifying the dam operations by restoring to the natural flow pattern is advantageous to fish community.

Expressway Travel Time Prediction Using K-Nearest Neighborhood (KNN 알고리즘을 활용한 고속도로 통행시간 예측)

  • Shin, Kangwon;Shim, Sangwoo;Choi, Keechoo;Kim, Soohee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1873-1879
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    • 2014
  • There are various methodologies to forecast the travel time using real-time data but the K-nearest neighborhood (KNN) method in general is regarded as the most one in forecasting when there are enough historical data. The objective of this study is to evaluate applicability of KNN method. In this study, real-time and historical data of toll collection system (TCS) traffic flow and the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) link travel time, and the historical path travel time data are used as input data for KNN approach. The proposed method investigates the path travel time which is the nearest to TCS traffic flow and DSRC link travel time from real-time and historical data, then it calculates the predicted path travel time using weight average method. The results show that accuracy increased when weighted value of DSRC link travel time increases. Moreover the trend of forecasted and real travel times are similar. In addition, the error in forecasted travel time could be further reduced when more historical data could be available in the future database.

Spatial Variation in Land Use and Topographic Effects on Water Quality at the Geum River Watershed (토지이용과 지형이 수질에 미치는 영향의 공간적 변동성에 관한 연구 - 금강 권역을 중심으로)

  • Park, Se-Rin;Choi, Kwan-Mo;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we investigated the spatial variation in land use and topographic effects on water quality at the Geum river watershed in South Korea, using the ordinary least squares(OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. Understanding the complex interactions between land use, slope, elevation, and water quality is essential for water pollution control and watershed management. We monitored four water quality indicators -total phosphorus, total nitrogen, biochemical oxygen demand, and dissolved oxygen levels - across three land use types (urban, agricultural, and forested) and two topographic features (elevation and mean slope). Results from GWR modeling revealed that land use and topography did not affect water quality consistently through space, but instead exhibited substantial spatial non-stationarity. The GWR model performed better than the OLS model as it produced a higher adjusted $R^2$ value. Spatial variation in interactions among variables could be visualized by mapping $R^2$ values from the GWR model at fine spatial resolution. Using the GWR model, we were able to identify local pollution sources, determine habitat status, and recommend appropriate land-use planning policies for watershed management.

Effect of Areal Mean Rainfall Estimation Technique and Rainfall-Runoff Models on Flood Simulation in Samcheok Osipcheon(Riv.) Basin (면적 강우량 산정 기법과 강우-유출 모형이 삼척오십천 유역의 홍수 모의에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hyeonji;Shin, Youngsub;Kang, Dongho;Kim, Byungsik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.775-784
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    • 2023
  • In terms of flood management, it is necessary to analyze quantitative rainfall and runoff from a spatial and temporal perspective and to analyze runoff for heavy rainfall events that are concentrated within a short period of time. The simulation and analysis results of rainfall-runoff models vary depending on the type and input data. In particular, rainfall data is an important factor, so calculating areal mean rainfall is very important. In this study, the areal mean rainfall of the Samcheok Osipcheon(Riv.) watersheds located in the mountainous terrain was calculated using the Arithmetic Mean Method, Thiessen's Weighting Method, and the Isohyetal Method, and the rainfall-runoff results were compared by applying the distributional model S-RAT and the lumped model HEC-HMS. The results of the temporal transferability study showed that the combination of the distributional model and the Isohyetal Method had the best statistical performance with MAE of 64.62 m3/s, RMSE of 82.47 m3/s, and R2 and NSE of 0.9383 and 0.8547, respectively. It is considered that this study was properly analyzed because the peak flood volume occurrence time of the observed and simulated flows is within 1 hour. Therefore, the results of this study can be used for frequency analysis in the future, which can be used to improve the accuracy of simulating peak flood volume and peak flood occurrence time in mountainous watersheds with steep slopes.

A Study on the Applicability of the Short-term Rainfall Forecasting using Translation Model (이류모델을 활용한 초단시간 강수예보의 적용성 검토)

  • Yoon, Seong-Sim;Lee, Jong-Dae;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.193-197
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    • 2009
  • 오늘날 도시지역의 무분별한 개발로 인해 불투수면적이 증가하여 첨두유량 및 유출용적의 증가와 홍수도달시간을 단축시키고 있으며, 특히 도시유역에서는 하천 홍수위 상승에 의한 외수피해와 순간적인 집중호우에 의해 도로 노면수의 배수불량에서 기인하는 내수피해가 결합되어 홍수피해가 더욱 가중되고 있는 실정이다. 이에 대한 효율적인 조기 대응책으로 도시 수문기상 현상의 변화 및 현황을 파악하여 홍수로 인한 인명 및 재산피해를 최소화할 수 있는 적절한 홍수 예 경보 시스템의 구축을 들 수 있다. 이를 위하여 선진 외국의 경우 기상전문가에 의한 집중호우 현상규명 및 사전예보 기법 확립과 수자원 전문가에 의한 이들 예보자료를 활용한 특정지역의 홍수피해 유무를 사전에 예측하는 기상과 수자원의 학제간 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 국내의 경우 기상 현업에서는 국지성 집중호우 예측과 단시간 강수예보를 위해 수치예보모형, 레이더 및 기상위성을 활용하고 있으나 수자원 분야에서는 예측강우를 활용한 홍수예보에 관한 연구는 매우 미진한 상태이다. 특히 도시홍수의 경우 도달시간이 매우 짧으므로 강수의 초단시간 예보기법을 통한 강수예보의 선행시간 확보는 매우 중요하다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 기상레이더 정보와 이류모델을 활용한 초단시간 강수예보의 적용성을 검토하였다. 이류모델은 강우강도 분포를 이류벡터에 따라 이동시키면서 강우의 발달쇠약 회전 등을 고려하여 강수를 예측하는 모형이다. 본 연구에서는 초단시간 강수예보의 적용성 검토를 위해 Least-square fitting 기법으로 레이더 강수를 추정하고, 추정된 강수를 이류모델의 입력장으로 활용하였다. 또한, 도시홍수예보의 활용을 위해 중랑천 유역을 대상으로 초단시간 예측강수의 유역면적평균강우량을 산정하여 적용성을 평가하였다.

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A Theoretical Review on the Intangible Assets Valuation Techniques of Income Approach (무형자산평가에 관한 이론적 고찰 - 소득접근법의 평가기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Ahn, Jeong-Keun
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.207-224
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to review the various valuation techniques of intangible assets. The value of intangible asset by the income approach can be measured as the present value of the economic benefit over the intangible asset's remaining useful life. The typical methods used in intangible asset economic income projections include extrapolation method, life cycle analyses, sensitivity analyses, simulation analyses, judgment method, and tabula rasa method. There are several methods available for estimating capitalization rates and discount rates for intangible asset, in which we have discussed market extraction method, capital asset pricing model, built-up method, discounted cash flow model, and weighted average cost of capital method. As the capitalization methods for intangible asset, relief-from-royalty method, excess earnings capitalization method, profit split method, residual from business enterprise method, postulated loss of income method and so on have been reviewed.

A Geospatial Evaluation of Potential Sea Effects on Observed Air Temperature (해안지대 기온에 미치는 바다효과의 공간분석)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Yun, Jin-I.;Chung, U-Ran;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.217-224
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to quantify potential effects of the surrounding ocean on the observed air temperature at coastal weather stations in the Korean Peninsula. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 2001-2009 were collected from 66 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and the monthly averages were calculated for further analyses. Monthly data from 27 inland sites were used to generate a gridded temperature surface for the whole Peninsula based on an inverse distance weighting and the local temperature at the remaining 39 sites were estimated by recent techniques in geospatial climatology which are widely used in correction of small - scale climate controls like cold air drainage, urban heat island, topography as well as elevation. Deviations from the observed temperature were regarded as the 'apparent' sea effect and showed a quasi-logarithmic relationship with the distance of each site from the nearest coastline. Potential effects of the sea on daily temperature might exceed $6.0^{\circ}C$ cooling in summer and $6.5^{\circ}C$ warming in winter according to this relationship. We classified 25 sites within the 10 km distance from the nearest coastline into 'coastal sites' and the remaining 15 'fringe sites'. When the average deviations of the fringe sites ($0.5^{\circ}C$ for daily maximum and $1.0^{\circ}C$ for daily minimum temperature) were used as the 'noise' and subtracted from the 'apparent' sea effects of the coastal sites, maximum cooling effects of the sea were identified as $1.5^{\circ}C$ on the west coast and $3.0^{\circ}C$ on the east and the south coast in summer months. The warming effects of the sea in winter ranged from $1.0^{\circ}C$ on the west and $3.5^{\circ}C$ on the south and east coasts.

A decision-centric impact assessment of operational performance of the Yongdam Dam, South Korea (용담댐 기존운영에 대한 의사결정중심 기후변화 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Daeha;Kim, Eunhee;Lee, Seung Cheol;Kim, Eunji;Shin, June
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2022
  • Amidst the global climate crisis, dam operation policies formulated under the stationary climate assumption could lead to unsatisfactory water management. In this work, we assessed status-quo performance of the Yongdam Dam in Korea under various climatic stresses in flood risk reduction and water supply reliability for 2021-2040. To this end, we employed a decision-centric framework equipped with a stochastic weather generator, a conceptual streamflow model, and a machine-learning reservoir operation rule. By imposing 294 climate perturbations to dam release simulations, we found that the current operation rule of the Yongdam dam could redundantly secure water storage, while inefficiently enhancing the supply reliability. On the other hand, flood risks were likely to increase substantially due to rising mean and variability of daily precipitation. Here, we argue that the current operation rules of the Yongdam Dam seem to be overly focused on securing water storage, and thus need to be adjusted to efficiently improve supply reliability and reduce flood risks in downstream areas.