• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.54 no.2
• /
• pp.105-119
• /
• 2021

An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.55 no.7
• /
• pp.515-529
• /
• 2022

Identifying the available water resources amount is an essential process in establishing a sustainable water resources management plan. Dam facility is a major infrastructure storing and supplying water during the dry season, and the water supply yield of the dam varies depending on dam inflow conditions or operation rule. In South Korea, water supply yield of dam is calculated by reservoir simulation based on observed historical dam inflow data. However, the water supply capacity of a dam can be underestimated or overestimated depending on the existence of historical drought events during the simulation period. In this study, probabilistic inflow data was generated and used to estimate the appropriate range of the water supply yield of hydropower dams. That is, a method for estimating the probabilistic dam inflow that fluctuates according to climatic and socio-economic conditions and the range of water supply yield for hydropower dams was presented, and applied to hydropower dams located in the Han river in South Korea. It is expected that the understanding water supply yield of the hydropower dams will become more important to respond to climate change in the future, and this study will contribute to national water resources management planning by providing potential range of water supply yield of hydropower dams.

• Smart Media Journal
• /
• v.12 no.10
• /
• pp.93-101
• /
• 2023

Climate change has emerged as a global problem, with frequent temperature increases, droughts, and floods, and it is predicted that it will have a great impact on the characteristics and productivity of crops. Cnidium officinale is used not only as traditionally used herbal medicines, but also as various industrial raw materials such as health functional foods, natural medicines, and living materials, but productivity is decreasing due to threats such as continuous crop damage and climate change. Therefore, this paper proposes a model that can predict the physiologically active ingredient index according to the climate change scenario of Cnidium officinale, a representative medicinal crop vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, data was first augmented using the CTGAN algorithm to solve the problem of data imbalance in the collection of environment information, physiological reactions, and physiological active ingredient information. Column Shape and Column Pair Trends were used to measure augmented data quality, and overall quality of 88% was achieved on average. In addition, five models RF, SVR, XGBoost, AdaBoost, and LightBGM were used to predict phenol and flavonoid content by dividing them into ground and underground using augmented data. As a result of model evaluation, the XGBoost model showed the best performance in predicting the physiological active ingredients of the sacrum, and it was confirmed to be about twice as accurate as the SVR model.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.49 no.1
• /
• pp.42-50
• /
• 2016

The purpose of this study is to set the direction to manage national parks to cope with climate change, and offer basic data to establish the relevant policies. Towards this end, this study analyzed the current and future climate change vulnerability of national parks using the 24 proxy variables of vulnerability in the LCCGIS program, a tool to evaluate climate change vulnerability developed by the National Institute of Environmental Research. To analyze and evaluate the current status of and future prospect on climate change vulnerability of national parks, the proxy variable value of climate exposure was calculated by making a GIS spatial thematic map with $1km{\times}1km$ grid unit through the application of climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The values of proxy variables of sensitivity and adaptation capability were calculated using the basic statistics of national parks. The values of three vulnerability evaluation items were calculated regarding the present (2010s) and future (2050s). The current values were applied to the future equally under the assumption that the current state of the proxy variables related to sensitivity and adaptation capability without a future prediction scenario continues. Seoraksan, Odaesan, Jirisan and Chiaksan National Parks are relatively bigger in terms of the current (2010s) climate exposure. The national park, where the variation of heat wave is the biggest is Wolchulsan National Park. The biggest variation of drought occurs to Gyeryongsan National Park, and Woraksan National Park has the biggest variation of heavy rain. Concerning the climate change sensitivity of national parks, Jirisan National Park is the most sensitive, and adaptation capability is evaluated to be the highest. Gayasan National Park's sensitivity is the lowest, and Chiaksan National Park is the lowest in adaptation capability. As for climate change vulnerability, Seoraksan, Odaesan, Chiaksan and Deogyusan National Parks and Hallyeohaesang National Park are evaluated as high at the current period. The national parks, where future vulnerability change is projected to be the biggest, are Jirisan, Woraksan, Chiaksan and Sobaeksan National Parks in the order. Because such items evaluating the climate change vulnerability of national parks as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability show relative differences according to national parks' local climate environment, it will be necessary to devise the adaptation measures reflecting the local climate environmental characteristics of national parks, rather than establishing uniform adaptation measures targeting all national parks. The results of this study that evaluated climate change vulnerability using climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability targeting Korea's national parks are expected to be used as basic data for the establishment of measures to adapt to climate change in consideration of national parks' local climate environmental characteristics. However, this study analyzed using only the proxy variables presented by LCCGIS program under the situation that few studies on the evaluation of climate change vulnerability of national parks are found, and therefore this study may not reflect overall national parks' environment properly. A further study on setting weights together with an objective review on more proper proxy variables needs to be carried out in order to evaluate the climate change vulnerability of national parks.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.51 no.1
• /
• pp.11-18
• /
• 2018

The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.48 no.4
• /
• pp.229-237
• /
• 2015

This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests' distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests' growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees' geographical distribution change is more affected by climate's extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest's age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.71-88
• /
• 2012

The global warming is probably the most significant issue of concern all over the world and according to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature and extent of global warming around the globe have been on the rise and so have the uncertainty for the future. Such effects of global warming have adverse effects on basic foundation of the mankind in numerous ways and water resource is no exception. The researches on water resources assessment for climate change are significant enough to be used as the preliminary data for researches in other fields. In this research, a total of 124 peer-reviewed publications and 57 reports on the subject of research on climate change related to water resources, that has been carried out so far in Korea has been reviewed. The research on climate change in Korea (inclusive of the peer-reviewed articles and reports) has mainly focused on the future projection and assessment. In the fields of hydrometeorology tendency and projection, the analysis has been carried out with focus on surface water, flood, etc. for hydrological variables and precipitation, temperature, etc. for meteorological variables. This can be attributed to the large, seasonal deviation in the amount of rainfall and the difficulty of water resources management, which is why, the analysis and research have been carried out with focus on those variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, flood, etc. which are directly related to water resources. The future projection of water resources in Korea may differ from region to region; however, variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, etc. have shown a tendency for increase; especially, it has been shown that whereas the number of casualties due to flood or drought decreases, property damage has been shown to increase. Despite the fact that the intensity of rainfall, temperature, and discharge amount are anticipated to rise, appropriate measures to address such vulnerabilities in water resources or management of drainage area of future water resources have not been implemented as yet. Moreover, it has been found that the research results on climate change that have been carried out by different bodies in Korea diverge significantly, which goes to show that many inherent uncertainties exist in the various stage of researches. Regarding the strategy in response to climate change, the voluntary response by an individual or a corporate entity has been found to be inadequate owing to the low level of awareness by the citizens and the weak social infrastructure for responding to climate change. Further, legal or systematic measures such as the governmental campaign on the awareness of climate change or the policy to offer incentives for voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been found to be insufficient. Lastly, there has been no case of any research whatsoever on the anticipated effects on the economy brought about by climate change, however, there are a few cases of on-going researches. In order to establish the strategy to prepare for and respond to the anticipated lack of water resources resulting from climate change, there is no doubt that a standardized analysis on the effects on the economy should be carried out first and foremost.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.275-295
• /
• 2023

In Korea, there are four institutions related to atmospheric science: the university's atmospheric science-related department, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the ROK Air Force Weather Group, and the Meteorological Industry Association. These four institutions have developed while maintaining a deep cooperative relationship with the Korea Meteorological Society (KMS) for the past 60 years. At the university, 6,986 bachelors, 1,595 masters, and 505 doctors, who are experts in meteorology and climate, have been accredited by 2022 at 7 universities related to atmospheric science. The KMA is carrying out national meteorological tasks to protect people's lives and property and foster the meteorological industry. The ROK Air Force Weather Group is in charge of military meteorological work, and is building an artificial intelligence and space weather support system through cooperation with universities, the KMA, and the KMS. Although the Meteorological Industry Association has a short history, its members, sales, and the number of employees are steadily increasing. The KMS greatly contributed to raising the national meteorological service to the level of advanced countries by supporting the development of universities, the KMA, the Air Force Meteorological Agency, and the Meteorological Industry Association.