• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가격 예측

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A Study on the Effect of Investor Sentiment and Liquidity on Momentum and Stock Returns (투자자 심리와 유동성이 모멘텀과 주식수익률에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • In-Su, Kim
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.11
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzes whether investor sentiment and liquidity explain the momentum phenomenon in the Korean stock market and whether it is a risk factor for the asset pricing model. The empirical analysis used the monthly returns of non-financial companies listed on the stock market during the period 2000-2021. As a result of the analysis, first, it was found that there is a momentum effect in Korea. This is the same result as the previous study, and since 2000, the momentum effect has been accepted as a general phenomenon in the Korean stock market. Second, if we look at the portfolio based on investor sentiment, investor sentiment is influencing momentum. In particular, when investor sentiment is negative, the return on the winner portfolio is high. Third, as a result of the analysis based on liquidity, the momentum effect disappears and a reversal effect appears. Fourth, it was found that investor sentiment and liquidity influence the momentum effect. This is a result of the strong momentum effect in the illiquid stock group with negative investor sentiment. Fifth, as a result of analyzing the effect of each factor on stock returns, it was found that both investor psychology and liquidity factors have a significant impact on returns. The estimated results provide evidence that the inclusion of these two factors in the Carhart four-factor model significantly increases the predictive power of the model. Therefore, it can be said that investor sentiment factors and liquidity factors are important factors in determining stock returns.

Correlation analysis of pollutants using IoT technology in LID facilities (LID 시설 내 IoT 기술을 활용한 오염물질 상관성 분석)

  • Jeon, Minsu;Choi, Hyeseon;kevin, Geronimo Franz;Reyes, N.J.DG.;Kim, Leehyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.453-453
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    • 2021
  • 도시지역 비점오염원관리, 물순환 회복, 침투 및 증발산량 증가, 열섬현상 저감을 위한 주요한 방안으로 저영향개발(low impact development, LID)과 그린인프라 기법의 적용되고 있다. LID 시설은 소규모 분산형 시설로써 넓은 지역에 많고 다양한 시설들이 적용되어 시설의 개수가 많으며, 수질 및 토양 내 기성제품에 대한 센서들의 가격은 고가로 형성되어 있어 기기의 경제성 및 유지관리 등 적용하는데 제한적이다. 따라서 과거 모니터링 자료를 기반으로 오염물질들과의 상관성 분석을 통하여 계측이 어려운 항목들을 계측가능한 항목들로부터 예측 가능하며, 선정된 항목들에 대한 비용효율적인 센서를 개발하여 실시간 LID 모니터링이 가능한 비용효율적 모니터링을 개발하였다. 공주대학교 천안캠퍼스의 LID 시설들은 2013년에 조성되어 현재까지 시설이 운영되고 있으며, 5년이상의 과거 강우시 모니터링 자료들을 이용하여 오염물질 상관성 분석을 수행가능 하기에 대상지로 선정하였다. 오염물질 상관성 분석은 2013년부터 2017년도에 침투도랑에서 수행된 강우시 모니터링 자료를 활용하여 각 오염물질들의 상관성을 분석을 수행하였다. 침투도랑 내 유입되는 평균 유입수는 TSS 286.1±318.3 mg/L, BOD 22.6±39.5 mg/L, TN 8.96±5.85 mg/L, TP 1.01±1.11 mg/L로 나타났다. 겨울철에 비해 여름철에서의 오염물질의 유입농도가 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 여름철 고온건조로 인한 노면 내 차량의 주행으로 인한 중금속, 폐타이어 등과 장마철 강우 시 유출된 토사로 인하여 유입수의 농도가 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 오염물질 부하량은 TSS와 COD 0.66으로 유의성이 높은 것으로 나왔으며, COD와 TSS, TP, TN 등 유의성이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. Arduino와 Raspberry PI를 활용하여 저비용 센서와 LTE 모뎀통신과 데이터 베이스 연결하여 개발된 프로그램을 통해서 무선으로 LID 시설에 대한 모니터링을 침투화분2와 식생체류지에 조성하였다. 전력공급이 어려운 식생체류지의 경우 태양열(Solar system) 시스템과 보조 전력 배터리를 조성하여 장마철이나 장기적인 악천후로 인한 전력을 생산하지 못할 경우 보조전력배터리에서 전력을 제공하여 지속적인 모니터링이 이루어지도록 설계하였다. 토양함수량, 토양온도와 Conductivity 등 3종류의 센서를 적용하였으며, 프로그램은 현재 2단계를 통한 2차수정을 통하여 프로그램을 구축하였다. 오차, 오작동, 계측값에 대한 검·보정 작업이 필요하다. 또한 대기자료의 구축을 통해 보다 토양과 LID 시설에 대한 영향분석이 필요한 것으로 사료된다.

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Recent Research Status of Postharvest Management of Broccoli (브로콜리 수확후 관리의 최근 연구 동향)

  • Choi, Ji-Weon;Lee, Woo-Moon;Kwak, Jung-Ho;Kim, Won-Bae;Kim, Ji-Gang;Lee, Seung-Ku;Cho, Mi-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of International Agriculture
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.497-502
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    • 2011
  • Broccoli is considered as one of the functional foods to offer a hearty supply of the nutrient-rich vegetable in the world. Broccoli contains high level of phytochemicals, and that is selected as one of the top 10 vegetables for human health promotion. Especially, glucosinolates and flavonoids are well known as anti free oxygen radicals in vegetables and fruits. In Korea, broccoli consumption has increased to well known on the health-beneficial vegetables since 2000. However, broccoli has many problems of postharvest management since the quality of harvested heads quickly declines. Major problems are the floret yellowing, wilting, off-odor, and decay. The multiple postharvest applications improve broccoli quality and cold treatment including pre-cooling extends on the shelf-life with circumstance of optimum storage which is 0℃ temperature and a range of 95-100% relative humidity. Controlled atmosphere or modified atmosphere packaging can be used as supplemental treatments to extend postharvest life. 1-2% O2 + 5-10% CO2 is currently recommended for broccoli. Postharvest management is important for broccoli because price fluctuations depend on harvest time and quality. In this study, we tried to review physiological change of broccoli after the harvest, storage method, and various techniques to optimize quality during distribution.

The Study of the Effect of Shopping Value on Customer Satisfaction, and Actual Purchase Behavior (쇼핑가치가 고객만족과 구매행동에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 백화점 쇼핑행동을 중심으로 -)

  • Ahn, Kwangho;Lim, Byunghoon;Jung, Suntae
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.99-123
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    • 2008
  • Consumer satisfaction/dissatisfaction is key determinant of brand loyalty and store patronage behavior. But the results of many customer satisfaction surveys implemented by department stores show that consumer satisfactions do not predict the actual patronage behaviors well. The main reason of these surprising results would be that the consumer satisfaction indexes do not include some important determinants of consumer satisfaction. Many customer satisfaction surveys mainly focus on the evaluation of functional benefits including product assortments, merchandise prices and locational convenience. Recent studies indicate that emotional/hedonic benefits strongly influence the consumer satisfaction, intention to repurchase and intention to revisit. Our study suggests that both functional values and hedonic values should be included in developing the index of consumer satisfactions. The purpose of our study is to investigate the relationship between shopping value and consumer satisfaction, and actual patronage behavior. Shopping values is defined as the difference between total benefits and total shopping costs. Total benefits include the dimensions of product quality, service quality, and hedonic benefits. Total costs are classified as the monetary costs and non-monetary cost. The conceptual framework developed for this empirical study is as follows.

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Development of Technology for Intensive Production of High-Quality Rosemary Shoots (고품질 로즈마리 어린 순 생산을 위한 적정 삽수 길이 및 삽목 시기 구명)

  • Myeong-Suk Kim;Se-Hyun Gi;Jung-Seob Moon;Gue-Saeng Yeom;Song-Hee Ahn;Dong-Chun Jung
    • Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2021.04a
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    • pp.43-43
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    • 2021
  • 로즈마리(Rosmarinus officinalis)는 지중해 지역이 원산이고 꿀풀과에 속하는 다년생 식물로 자생지에서는 식물의 크기가 2m까지 자라는 관목성 식물이다. 식용, 약용, 미용, 향료뿐 아니라 관상용으로도 널리 이용되고 있고 특히 향이 좋아 세계 로즈마리 추출물 시장은 연평균 4.8%씩 증가하여 2027년에는 10억 달러를 넘을 것으로 예측된다. 우리나라도 소비 트렌드 변화에 따른 이용성 확대로 신선허브의 수요가 증가하고 있으나 아직은 허브 식물원료의 대부분을 수입에 의존하고 있고, 로즈마리 역시 식물원료뿐 아니라 가공품까지 외국에서 수입하여 사용하는 실정이다. 2018년 로즈마리 수입량은 신선상태 978kg, 건조상태 23,404kg으로 높은 수입의존에 따른 가격 상승과 긴 유통기간에 의한 품질 저하 등의 문제가 발생하고 있다. 본 연구는 로즈마리 어린 순 재배 적정 삽수 길이를 설정하고 어린 순 생산 가능 기간을 구명하여 추후에 고품질 로즈마리 어린 순 집약생산을 위한 다단재배기술을 확립하고자 수행되었다. 삽수 길이는 5, 10, 15cm로 하였고, 삽목 시기는 4월 하순 ~ 8월 하순까지 30일 간격으로 5회 실시하였다. 적정 삽수 길이 설정 실험에서는 15cm 삽수 발근률이 85.6%로 가장 높았으며 신초 출현시기는 5월 26일, 어린 순 생산시기는 6월 23일로 가장 빨랐고 수확시까지 소요일수는 56일로 가장 짧았다. 기대수량 또한 728g/m2로 가장 높았다. 로즈마리 어린 순 생산 가능 기간 구명 실험에서는 4월 28일 삽목시 발근율이 85.6%로 가장 높았고 육묘기간은 28일 어린 순 생산까지 소요일수는 56일로 가장 짧았다. 삽목 시기별 어린 순 품질 및 생산량은 4월 28일 삽목시 품질이 좋았으며 기대수량 또한 728g/m2로 가장 높았다. 결과적으로 상품성 있는 어린순 생산에 적합한 삽수 길이는 15cm, 삽목 시기는 4월 하순 경에 했을 때, 로즈마리의 생육상태, 수확까지의 기간, 어린 순 생산량 등 종합적인 면에서 가장 우수한 값을 얻을 수 있었다.

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Analysis of Shipping Markets Using VAR and VECM Models (VAR과 VECM 모형을 이용한 해운시장 분석)

  • Byoung-Wook Ko
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR2 reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

A study on the improvements to revitalize short selling from the perspective of protecting the interests of individual investors (개인투자자 이익보호의 관점에서 본 공매도 활성화를 위한 개선방안 연구)

  • Se-Dong Yang;Jae-Yeon Sim
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2024
  • Recently, the Korean financial market has implemented a ban on unleveraged short selling, and leveraged short selling, which involves selling borrowed securities, is called general short selling. This study sought to come up with improvement measures to revitalize short selling from the perspective of individual investors. Short selling refers to selling stocks you do not own in the stock market, predicting that the stock price of the stock will fall, and borrowing stocks to sell them. Based on the results of this study, the short selling market's growth and improvement plans are as follows. First, a plan must be developed to expand short selling opportunities for individual investors. In the domestic short selling market, including KOSPI and KOSDAQ, foreign and institutional participants account for more than 95% of the market, and individual investors are very small. Therefore, its expansion is inevitable. Second, monitoring and punishment for unfair short selling transactions must be strengthened. Representative improvement measures that can minimize the side effects of short selling include strengthening monitoring of unfair trading and short selling, and raising the level of punishment. In addition, measures must be taken to further increase the level of punishment for short selling related to unfair transactions. Third, the short selling reporting and disclosure system needs to be improved. In the case of Korea, short selling transactions are not yet as active as in developed countries, but there is a need to expand the disclosure system to strengthen market transparency in preparation for future short selling transactions becoming more active. In conclusion, it is reported that if short selling regulations are excessively strengthened, losses may occur in terms of price efficiency and market liquidity, which may ultimately have a negative impact on the market. Therefore, policies related to short selling must be made while taking into account the positive aspects of regulatory effects and the negative impact on the market.

Development of Solar Warehouse for Drying and Storing the Agricultural Products (농산물(農産物) 건조(乾燥) 및 저장(貯藏)을 위(爲)한 태양열(太陽熱) 저장고(貯藏庫)의 개발(開發)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Man Soo;Chang, Kyu Seob;Kim, Soung Rai;Jeon, Byeong Seon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.357-370
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    • 1982
  • Recent concern regarding price and availability of fossil fuels has spurred the interest in alternative sources for farm crop drying. Among the available options such as biomass energy, wind power, nuclear energy and solar energy etc., the increasing attention is being directed to the utilization of heat from solar energy especially for farm crop drying. Even though solar energy is dispersed over a large land area and only a relatively small amount of energy can be simply collected, the advantages of solar energy is that the energy is free, non-polluting. The study reported here was designed to help supply the informations for the development of simple and relatively inexpensive solar warehouse for farm crop drying and storage. Specifically, the objectives of this study were to determine the performance of the solar collector fabricated, to compare solar supplemented heat drying with natural air drying and to develop a simulation model of temperature in stored grain, which can be used to study the effects due to changes in ambient air temperature. For those above objectives, solar collector was fabricated from available materials. Corrugated steel galvanized sheet, painted flat black, was used as absorbers and clear 0.2mm polyethylene sheet was the cover material. The warehouse for rough rice drying and storage was constructed with concrete block, and the solar collector was used as the roof of warehouse instead of original roofing system of it. The results obtained in this study were as follows: 1. The thermal efficiency of the solar collector was average 26 percent and the overall heat transfer coefficient of the collector was approximately $25kJ/hr.m^2\;^{\circ}K$. 2. Solar heated air was sufficient to dry one cubic meter of rough rice from 23.5 to 15.0 percent in 7 days and natural air was able to dry the same amount of rough rice from 20.0 to 5 percent in l2 days. 3. Drying with solar heat reduced the required drying time to dry the same amount of rough rice into a half compared to natural air drying, but overdrying problems of the bottom layer were so severe that these problems should be thoroughly analyzed. 4. Simulation model of temperature in stored grain was developed and the results of predicted temperature agreed well with test results. 5. Based on those simulated temperature, changes in the grain-temperature were a large at the points of the wallside and the damage of the grain would be severe at the contact area of wall.

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A Case Study on the Exogenous Factors affecting Extra-large Egg Production in a Layer Farm in Korea (산란계 사육농장 특란 생산에 미치는 외부 요인 분석을 위한 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Chang;Jang, Woo-Whan
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the production of extra-large egg and assess the impacts of exogenous factors in feeding the layer chicken. The main results of this study are as follows; First, feeding rations on the basics of statistics, internal maximum and minimum temperature and, the age at first egg affect the production of extra-large egg. Second, implicating the standardized coefficients from the conclusion of regression model estimating suggest that the amount of feed has the greatest impact on production followed by the age at first egg. Third, by using the elasticity of output and the volatility in the production, the result suggest that among the independent variable factors in the external volatility, the biggest one goes to feed ration, and the age at first egg follows. In order to control the production volatility in the extra-large egg production of the farms, it is necessary to manage an efficient feeding based on feed ration, age at first egg and, the maximum and minimum temperature inside the farm. Taken together, the results demonstrates that it should be concentrated by controlling the exogenous factors affecting extra large egg production and the management system construct, to increase extra-large egg production and the income of farmers at the same time.

A Study on Netwotk Effect by using System Dynamics Analysis: A Case of Cyworld (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 네트워크 효과 분석: 싸이월드 사례)

  • Kim, Ga-Hye;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.161-179
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    • 2009
  • Nowadays an increasing number of Internet users are running individual websites as Blog or Cyworld. As this type of personal media has a great influence on communication among people, business comes to care about Network Effect, Network Software, and Social Network. For instance, Cyworld created the web service called 'Minihompy' for individual web-logs, and acquired 2.4milion users in 2007. Although many people assumed that the popularity of Minihompy, or Blog would be a passing fad, Cyworld has improved its service, and expanded its Network with various contents. This kind of expansion reflects survival efforts from infinite competitions among ISPs (Internet Service Provider) with focus on enhancing usability to users. However, Cyworld's Network Effect is gradually diminished in these days. Both of low production cost of service vendors and the low searching/conversing costs of users combine to make ISPs hard to keep their market share sustainable. To overcome this lackluster trend, Cyworld has adopted new strategies and try to lock their users in their service. Various efforts to improve the continuance and expansion of Network effect remain unclear and uncertain. If we understand beforehand how a service would improve Network effect, and which service could bring more effect, ISPs can get substantial help in launching their new business strategy. Regardless many diverse ideas to increase their user's duration online ISPs cannot guarantee 'how the new service strategies will end up in profitability. Therefore, this research studies about Network effect of Cyworld's 'Minihompy' using System-Dynamics method which could analyze dynamic relation between users and ISPs. Furthermore, the research aims to predict changes of Network Effect based on the strategy of new service. 'Page View' and 'Duration Time' can be enhanced for the short tenn because they enhance the service functionality. However, these services cannot increase the Network in the long-run. Limitations of this research include that we predict the future merely based on the limited data. We also limit the independent variables over Network Effect only to the following two issues: Increasing the number of users and increasing the Service Functionality. Despite of some limitations, this study perhaps gives some insights to the policy makers or others facing the stiff competition in the network business.